| Title: | 633 : Bank Recapitalisation and Farm Loan Waivers: Two Sides of the Same Coin |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | There have been announcements of farm loan waiver in the Indian states that have just had elections. It defies logic why governments have not been able to address the basic ills that confront Indian agriculture such that, time and again, ad hoc solutions have been used to address farmers’ distress. This situation is akin to a further dose of recapitalisation of the public sector banks by the Indian government without it really addressing the basic inadequacies that led to an acute stress on the banks’ balance sheets. |
| Date: | 27 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 632 : A New Chapter in India-Maldives Relationship |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The Maldivian President’s visit to India has re-established close bonds between the two countries. India has agreed to provide much needed economic assistance to the Maldives and the two countries also agreed to cooperate on security matters in the Indian Ocean. |
| Date: | 19 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 631 : Elections in the Hindi belt – Why the BJP should be worried |
| Author/s: | Diego Maiorano, Atmakuri Lakshmi Archana |
| Abstract: | The state elections held in three north Indian states in late 2018 resulted in severe defeat for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. Particularly concerning for the BJP is the rather steep decline of the party’s vote share across the three states. |
| Date: | 15 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 630 : Heavy Government Hand Likely Forcing RBI Governor Out |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | Dr Urjit Patel has become the fifth Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, in independent India, to have quit prior to the completion of his tenure. Although healthy tension between the fiscal authority (government) and the monetary authority (central bank) is nothing new, presently however, these differences seemed to have become unmanageable leading to the Governor’s resignation. This is certainly not a reassuring move, especially when the financial sector needs deft handling. |
| Date: | 12 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 629 : Bumpy Road for Indian Conglomerates in South Korea’s Automobile Industry |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | Indian firms the Tata Group and the Mahindra Group have substantially invested in the South Korean automobile industry by acquiring Daewoo Motor Company in 2004 and SsangYong Motor Company in 2011, respectively. However, the two Indian firms have encountered some difficult challenges in this sector. |
| Date: | 11 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 628 : Developments in Kazakhstan: Lessons for South Asia |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Kazakhstan is a landlocked developing country rapidly progressing into a major economic power. There are lessons for South Asia in the Kazakh story. |
| Date: | 5 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 627 : Bangladesh’s Election: Exciting Times Ahead |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh’s national polls are due on 30 December 2018. These are likely to be the most exciting in the country’s history. This brief explains why this may be the case. |
| Date: | 5 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 626 : Challenges for the New Government in the Maldives |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | In his inaugural speech on 17 November 2018, Ibrahim Solih, the new President of the Maldives, promised to take steps to re-establish the rule of law and democratic values in the country. On the foreign policy front, he vowed to bring the Maldives out of international isolationism and change the policy of favouring one country over the others, as was the case under the previous government. It would be interesting to see how Solih will turn around the fortunes of a country faced with serious challenges on the domestic and external fronts. |
| Date: | 4 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 625 : The European Union’s New Strategy towards India |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Atmakuri Lakshmi Archana |
| Abstract: | The European Union’s (EU) new approach to India, unveiled in November 2018, lays out a productive basis for a long overdue transformation of the relations between Brussels and New Delhi. India, in turn, has welcomed the EU’s promise to develop a more streamlined, flexible and result-oriented strategy towards New Delhi. As they confront an increasingly uncertain world, India and the EU need each other, more than ever before, in securing their particular interests. |
| Date: | 3 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 624 : Deepening Singapore-India Defence Cooperation |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The annual Singapore-India Maritime Bilateral Exercise in the Bay of Bengal and the Andaman Sea in November 2018 was the largest ever the two countries conducted. It celebrated the growing military partnership between India and the city state at a moment when the renewed great power rivalry has cast a dark shadow over the regional security environment of the Indo-Pacific. The planned expansion of the bilateral exercise to include Thailand promises to strengthen regional security cooperation in the eastern Indian Ocean. |
| Date: | 26 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 623 : Can the BJP lose the 2019 Elections? |
| Author/s: | Diego Maiorano |
| Abstract: | For the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to lose the next Indian general elections, it will have to forfeit a huge number of votes in a high number of constituencies. For this to happen, there must be a huge vote swing in favour of the opposition parties. However, opinion polls seem to suggest that this is extremely unlikely to happen. At this stage, the BJP seems to be looking at a second term in power, albeit with a reduced majority. |
| Date: | 23 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 622 : Is the Citadel of the CBI in India Crumbling? |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The Central Bureau of Investigation is a vital institution of accountability in India. Its ability to conduct investigation in an independent manner has been under a cloud for a while. However, the recent events of officers within the organisation hurling accusations at each other portray their lack of professional integrity and transparency of their selection procedure. It is imperative that the government displays its political will by reinvigorating the autonomy and competence of the agency. |
| Date: | 21 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 621 : Mahinda Rajapaksa: An Influential Figure in Sri Lanka Politics |
| Author/s: | Chulanee Attanayake and Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | Former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa has continued to remain in public spotlight despite losing the presidential polls in January 2015. In fact, he rose in popularity so much so that, eight months later, he won a record number of votes in the Local Government Elections and entered parliament from Kurunegala district in North Western Province. In October 2018, he made a leadership comeback when he accepted President Maithripala Sirisena’s offer to become the new Prime Minister. While the move thrilled his supporters, the political turmoil that erupted in Sri Lanka has questioned Rajapaksa’s intent and the need for him to accept the offer. Against this backdrop, this paper analyses Rajapaksa’s background, defeat in the 2015 elections and return to political prominence. |
| Date: | 21 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 620 : Ease of Doing Business in India: Some Improvements but Challenges Remain |
| Author/s: | Rahul Choudhury |
| Abstract: | In the latest World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business rankings, India leapfrogged 23 spots to 77th position. This represents India’s continued ascendance in the rankings – it climbed to 100th spot last year from 137tha year earlier. Much of this progress can be attributed to the recent economic reforms undertaken by the Indian government. However, there are a number of areas that demand the urgent attention of Indian policymakers. |
| Date: | 19 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 619 : A ‘Monumental’ Shaping of Political Legacy in India |
| Author/s: | Malminderjit Singh and Vani Swarupa Murali |
| Abstract: | The recent launch of the world’s tallest statue in India by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been touted as a waste of resources and an election strategy by the Bharatiya Janata Party. This paper argues that there is a longer-term strategy at play of appropriating the legacy of India’s founding leaders. |
| Date: | 18 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 618 : Japan’s Growing Ties with Nepal |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | Relations between Japan and Nepal have traditionally been strong. However, these relations have given a fillip in recent times, particularly by Japan’s Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, of which Nepal has become an important part. |
| Date: | 13 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 617: Maithripala Sirisena: A President Mired in Controversy |
| Author/s: | Chulanee Attanayake and Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | President Maithripala Sirisena has become one of the most controversial Presidents in Sri Lanka’s history. From winning the Presidential elections against his former political chief, Mahinda Rajapaksa, and leading a minority government to appointing his former political foe, Ranil Wickremesinghe, as the Prime Minister for eight months until the General Elections in 2014 and more recently replacing him with Rajapaksa as the Prime Minister, Sirisena has courted one controversy too many. On 9 November 2018, he sprang another political surprise by unconstitutionally dissolving the Parliament. Against this backdrop, this paper attempts to provide an understanding of Sirisena’s political career, and his motives and actions. |
| Date: | 13 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 616 : Blasphemy, Protests and the Politics of Patronage in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Iqbal Singh Sevea |
| Abstract: | Protests over the acquittal of a woman who had been accused of blasphemy brought a number of cities in Pakistan to a standstill. These protests ended when the government signed an agreement with the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, a hardline Islamic movement. The agreement demonstrates that the movement enjoys support within the Pakistani establishment. |
| Date: | 12 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 615 : India and the Shifting Sands of the Gulf Region |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Nazneen Mohsina |
| Abstract: | India’s External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj visited Qatar and Kuwait amid deepening internal divisions and changing international relations in the Gulf. India has been skilfully navigating the shifting political sand as its dependence on the Gulf for its energy needs, internal and external security and welfare of its diaspora grows. Nonetheless, India will need to develop capabilities to influence the political outcomes in the region and cope with the changing dynamics there. |
| Date: | 9 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 614 : The RBI versus the Government: Much at Stake |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Indian government seem to have locked horns again. The differences seem to be getting more strident. The RBI clamping down on lax banks and restraining non-banking financial companies and the government appointing its own preferred persons on the RBI Board as well as attempting to whittle the RBI’s independence have been the instigating factors. This is not new but needs to be curbed quickly by both agencies sitting together with a constructive mindset. |
| Date: | 7 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 613: Pakistan and Saudi Arabia: The US$6 Billion Loan |
| Author/s: | Iqbal Singh Sevea |
| Abstract: | Saudi Arabia has sanctioned US$6 billion (S$8.3 billion) worth of financial aid to Pakistan. The loan may pose new domestic and foreign policy challenges for the Imran Khan-led government. |
| Date: | 2 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 612: India, China and the political crisis in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | As they try to secure their high stakes in Sri Lanka, Delhi and Beijing are adapting to Colombo’s internal dynamic. But it would be unwise to see the political developments in Colombo as a zero-sum game |
| Date: | 31 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 611: Developments in Sri Lanka – The View from Tamil Nadu |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | On 28 October 2018, Sri Lanka’s President Maithripala Sirisena sacked Prime Minster Ranil Wickremesinghe, sending the country into political turmoil. While the parties in Tamil Nadu have decided to adopt a wait and see policy about the recent developments in Sri Lanka, they are watching closely how these developments would affect the Tamils in Sri Lanka. |
| Date: | 31 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 610: A Political Crisis in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Chulanee Attanayake |
| Abstract: | In an unexpected turn of events, President Maithripala Sirisena sacked Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe and appointed former President, and his political foe, Mahinda Rajapaksa as the new premier of Sri Lanka. It is important to explore the causes that led to this unlikely alliance and the breakup of the coalition government. |
| Date: | 31 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 609: A Polity of Perpetual Politics: Election Season in Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | As per constitutional obligation, Bangladesh will hold elections in less than three months. The essay analyses the tactics and the strategies adopted by relevant actors in the lead-up to the elections. |
| Date: | 30 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 608: India and President Putin’s Pacific Pivot |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | As Russia pays renewed strategic attention to Asia, New Delhi has the strategic opportunity to broaden the basis of its engagement with Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin will visit Singapore in November 2018 to participate in the East Asia Summit (EAS) for the first time. On the margins of the EAS, Putin will separately meet with the Southeast Asian leaders in the familiar ASEAN+1 format. |
| Date: | 22 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 607 : Indonesia and India: Dealing with Disasters Together |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The devastating earthquake and tsunami in Palu, Indonesia, has thrown into focus the need for humanitarian and disaster relief (HADR) cooperation in the region. Indonesia and India are embarking upon a new phase in relations based on maritime connections. HADR should be a key area of focus in Indonesia-India maritime ties. |
| Date: | 16 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 606 : US-India FTA: Possibilities and Pitfalls |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | American President Donald Trump’s repeated mention about the United States (US) and India looking at a bilateral trade deal has generated attention about its prospects. The US’ intention of correcting imbalances with major trade partners through bilateral talks highlights such possibilities with respect to India. Given the lack of convergence between the two sides on trade issues and their different approach to free trade agreement (FTA) negotiations, any bilateral agreement talks would encounter challenges. They could further complicate the US’ intention of using its bilateral FTAs to isolate China. |
| Date: | 5 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 605 : India’ Digital Identity Scheme Passes Supreme Court Challenge |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao and Rahul Choudhury |
| Abstract: | The Indian government’s ambitious scheme of giving a unique biometric identity number – Aadhaar – to all residents of the country was challenged by privacy advocates on the ground that the increasing requirement to furnish the Aadhaar number to access public and even private services violated their fundamental right to privacy. The Supreme Court ruled that Aadhaar was constitutional but, in a clear acknowledgement of privacy concerns, imposed strict limits on its use. How the government will respond to the court’s judgement is as yet uncertain. |
| Date: | 5 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 604 :The Launch of the Guwahati-Singapore Direct Flight: Enhancing Connectivity with Northeast India |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The start of regular commercial flights between Guwahati in Northeast India and Singapore from September 2018 heralds a new era in this region’s growing connectivity with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-member countries. This is likely to lead to increased movement of people between the ASEAN region and Northeast India, thereby providing a fillip to New Delhi’s ‘Act-East’ policy |
| Date: | 18 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 603 : India Elections: The Perils of Anti-incumbency |
| Author/s: | Dr Diego Maiorano |
| Abstract: | Since Narendra Modi led the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) to a resounding victory in the national elections in 2014, the party has effectively established its dominance on India’s political system. Only a few months ago, few doubted that the BJP would comfortably win the next general elections in 2019, also given the weakness of its main competitor, the Congress party. However, anti-incumbency, particularly at the state level, might have a dramatic impact of the BJP’s electoral prospects. |
| Date: | 12 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 602 : Chagos at the International Court of Justice |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | The International Court of Justice will hold public hearings from 3 to 7 September 2018 on the legality and consequences of British control over Chagos. Also known as the British Indian Ocean Territory, the Chagos Archipelago includes Diego Garcia, a major American military base in the Indian Ocean. Twenty-two nations and the African Union are slated to give statements, including India, which will cast its position carefully, calibrating support for the Chagossian cause with the need to build security in the Indian Ocean. |
| Date: | 4 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 601 : Vidiadhar Surajprasad Naipaul: A Complex Relationship with India |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Nobel laureate Vidiadhar Surajprasad Naipaul died on 11 August 2018. This paper analyses Naipaul’s views on India and his complicated relationship with the land of his ancestors by examining three of his non-fiction books – An Area of Darkness (1962), India: A Wounded Civilization (1977) and India: A Million Mutinies Now (1990). |
| Date: | 31 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 600 : Atal Bihari Vajpayee: A Gentleman Politician and Statesman |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | Three-term prime minister of India, Atal Bihari Vajpayee, was a politician who believed in building consensus across parties to carry forward his policies. During his tenure, apart from initiatives on foreign policy, significant economic reforms and infrastructure development took place. The golden quadrilateral of developing national highways, linking the length and breadth of the country, was his idea. Vajpayee was a statesman and he will be sorely missed. |
| Date: | 27 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 599 : Japan’s Demographic Challenges: A Silver Lining for India-Japan Relations |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli and Alfred Lien |
| Abstract: | In early June 2018, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced plans to tackle his country’s shrinking workforce, promising to bring in 500,000 foreign workers by 2025. A first batch of Indian interns arrived in Japan on 17 July 2018 under the Technical Intern Training Program, which was established by India and Japan in October 2017. In fact, the two countries could benefit from each other’s demographic challenges. The paper discusses the potential role India could play as a longer-term solution to Japan’s problems and vice versa. |
| Date: | 15 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 598 : Muthuvel Karunanidhi: The Passing of the People’s Leader |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | Though the leader of a regional party, Muthuvel Karunanidhi, the former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, was a towering figure in national politics in India. His support for the poor and the disadvantaged classes, his ability to turn ideology into policy, and his capacity to make friends across parties were unparalleled. Karunanidhi will be sorely missed on India’s regional and national scenes. |
| Date: | 14 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 597 : India’s Quest for Data Protection |
| Author/s: | Dr Rahul Choudhury |
| Abstract: | Growing concerns about data privacy has led India to formulate a number of policies to protect the privacy of its citizen and other stakeholders, as well as to support its goal of becoming a digital and technologically-advanced economy. This paper assesses the various data protection-related policies enacted by the country and highlights the contradictions among the various policies. |
| Date: | 10 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 596 : Revolt of the Teens: Bangladesh’s Gathering Clouds? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | A street revolt of teens in Bangladesh, originally aimed at road-safety, following the killing of two students by a speeding bus on 29 July 2018, is now rapidly spreading in scope and dimension, threatening to engulf the entire country. With elections due in less than five months, it has the potential for a significant impact on the nation’s political future. This paper examines the relevant events and analyses them against the broader global matrix, underscoring their universal ramifications. |
| Date: | 8 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 595 : Pakistan Elections 2018: Imran Khan and a new South Asia |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | If the rise of Imran Khan to the top of Pakistan’s political heap is rooted in popular aspirations for change, analysts are sceptical about any significant evolution in the nation’s internal and external orientation after the elections. While the constraints on the civilian leadership are real, the status quo in Pakistan is increasingly difficult to sustain. It is possible to imagine a course correction at home and abroad if Khan can generate a new domestic consensus on key national issues on the basis of his mass appeal and the trust of the army that so dominates Pakistan’s political life. Any easing of tensions with Afghanistan and India will significantly boost Pakistan’s prospects for economic advancement at home and the elevation of its international standing |
| Date: | 2 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 594 : Japanese Foreign Minister’s Bhutan Visit: Enhancing the Bilateral Relationship |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The visit by the Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono to Bhutan from 22 to 24 June 2018 marked the first ministerial visit by Japan to Bhutan. It has to be seen in the wider context of Japan’s overall foreign policy towards South Asia, particularly its ‘Free and Open IndoPacific’ strategy. |
| Date: | 31 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 593 : The Moon-Modi Meeting: A New Regional Order through the New Southern Policy? |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in visited India from 8 to 11 July 2018 to discuss ways to enhance the Korean-Indian relationship in trade, infrastructure, culture, science and defence with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Moon government has sought international support for its blueprint for sustainable peace in the Korean Peninsula, especially from countries such as China, Japan, Russia and the United States. India, which had adopted a non-alignment policy towards the Korean Peninsula conflict, recently expressed its support for North Korea’s denuclearisation. The Moon government also seeks security cooperation with New Delhi through its ‘New Southern Policy’, which resonates with Modi’s ‘Act-East’ policy. This paper examines the implications of the Moon-Modi meeting and the Moon government’s efforts to build a new regional order in the Asia-Pacific region. |
| Date: | 28 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 592 : The Dark Side of Social Media: Mob Lynchings in India |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Over the past year, online rumours have resulted in several people being lynched in India. This has thrown the spotlight on the role of social media and its myriad impact in the country. The state, the internet companies and social media users are yet to come up with an effective policy to combat the spread of false information and its unfortunate impact. |
| Date: | 26 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 591 : Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement: Towards a Shared Economic Future |
| Author/s: | Ganeshan Wignaraja and Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka and Singapore recently signed the Sri Lanka-Singapore Free Trade Agreement (SLSFTA). Apart from being a comprehensive and modern free trade agreement in scope and coverage, the SLSFTA paves the way for Sri Lanka’s greater integration with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and possible future entry in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Reflecting on the challenges for optimising the benefits of the SLSFTA, this paper argues that a successful SLSFTA would vindicate the region’s confidence in the virtues of free trade. |
| Date: | 26 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 590 : Imran Khan and the Pakistani Elections: Political Visions, Coalitions and Prospects |
| Author/s: | Iqbal Singh Sevea and Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Pakistan will witness national parliamentary elections on 25 July 2018. Opinion polls are predicting a tight battle between the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf. Khan’s relentless focus on the issue of corruption has won him broad support, especially amongst the urban youth. He has also made a conscious effort to appeal to religiously and socially conservative sections of Pakistani society. He has, for instance, expressed strong support for the ‘blasphemy laws’. Apart from attempting to stitch together a wide coalition of voters, Khan has also astutely won over a number of politically powerful traditional elites, feudal leaders and spiritual authorities who had previously been elected under the PML-N ticket. Even before the votes are in, his opponents have already described this as an election rigged in his favour by the military. If Khan does emerge as the next prime minister of Pakistan, he may find himself having to confront allegations of match fixing and fielding questions on the legitimacy of the electoral process itself. |
| Date: | 25 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 589 : Pakistan’s Beleaguered Democratic Project |
| Author/s: | Aasim Sajjad Akhtar |
| Abstract: | With Pakistan’s general elections only days away (25 July 2018), the contradictions of the garrison state’s structure of power are being laid increasingly bare. Serial election winners, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz and Pakistan People’s Party, appear to be out of favour with the powerful military establishment, with three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif sent to jail last week after conviction by an accountability court. Cricketer-turned-politician Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehrik-e-Insaf appears to be in line for a stint in power. A fresh spate of terrorist attacks, along with the mainstreaming of prominent religio-political organisations with militant links, have shed further doubt on how free and fair the polls will be. |
| Date: | 23 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 588 : India and the Global Trade War: Long-term Impact can be serious |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India has entered the global trade war by joining countries retaliating against unilateral United States (US) tariff hikes. While the immediate impact of the friction is insignificant for India, it can be substantive if the US initiates specific trade actions. This possibility cannot be ruled out, given the acrimonious bilateral trade ties, the US tendency to act on trade on national security grounds and the inability of the World Trade Organization to prevent such actions. India’s defensive outlook might also prevent it from capitalising on possible opportunities arising from a new trade order aiming to isolate a protectionist US |
| Date: | 12 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 587 : Can India ever qualify for the World Cup? |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | India has never ever played in the football World Cup though it had an invitation to the 1950 edition. Currently ranked at 97 by the Fédération Internationale de Football Association, the global footballing body, India has, however, not always been poor in football. Till the 1960s, it was a major footballing power in Asia before it started to decline. In order to improve its standing in football, India must invest in grassroots programmes and infrastructure. |
| Date: | 10 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 586 : Climate Change Strategy in Bangladesh: An Analysis of Policy Back-up |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh is a densely populated country whose vulnerability to climate change seriously threatens its impressive development credentials. Its policy in this regard is based on the knowledge-based Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan, largely focussed on adaptation issues, but also takes mitigation measures into account. While, to-date, it is assessed as successful, in the future, it must adjust to certain changing socio-economic circumstances such as rapid urbanisation, as well as human-induced issues like influx of cross-frontier political refugees (the Rohingya). This paper reviews past policies with analyses and makes some recommendations for the future |
| Date: | 10 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 585 : India and the Seychelles: Controversy over an Island |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | On 22 June 2018, President Danny Faure of the Seychelles arrived in India for a six-day state visit. In a press statement welcoming the President, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a US$100 million (S$136.4 million) line of credit to the Seychelles for the purchase of military hardware from India so as to improve the country’s maritime capacity. He also stated that they would work together on the Assumption Island project, “keeping in mind each other’s interest in this regard”. 1 The latter part of the announcement, referring to India’s role in a stalled project to develop facilities on the island, caught many by surprise. It marks the latest twist in a story about India’s growing maritime ambition and the interlocking of domestic and global geopolitics in the Indian Ocean. |
| Date: | 2 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 584 : The European Union-based General Data Protection Regulation: Implications for India and ASEAN |
| Author/s: | Chan Jia Hao |
| Abstract: | The General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) is a regulation law that governs data protection and privacy for all individuals in the European Union (EU) and the European Economic Area. The GDPR was adopted in 2016 and became enforceable in May 2018. The regulation saw many private companies and websites worldwide change their privacy statements due to fears of data breaches resulting in heavy economic sanctions. While there is concern among private corporations that the EU-based GDPR standards will impose heavier data privacy regulations here in Asia, the current differences in the level and scope of data privacy standards in India and the Southeast Asian countries reveal a low level of readiness to embrace regional information and communications technology (ICT) cooperation. In the case of ICT cooperation between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), whether this non-standardisation could limit future cross-border ecommerce and e-governance exchanges depends highly on the next course of action by India and ASEAN |
| Date: | 20 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 583 : The Meeting of the Financial Action Task Force: Pakistan Fights being ‘Blacklisted’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The Financial Action Task Force, an international body that monitors, among other things, terror financing, is scheduled to meet in Paris on 24 June 2018. It will assess the performance of Pakistan which runs the risk of being ‘blacklisted’. This is a major challenge for the new caretaker government of the country, which is scheduled to go the polls on 25 July 2018 |
| Date: | 16 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 582 : Nepali Prime Minister’s Visit to China: Connectivity Initiatives on the Agenda |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | The main objective of Nepali Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli’s proposed visit to China on 19 June 2018 is to increase the pace of the implementation of the previously agreed connectivity projects between China and Nepal. It is also seen as an opportunity for Nepal to address its high dependence on India. |
| Date: | 16 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 581 :The Chief Justice of India: Make the Impeachment Process Apolitical |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | Indian citizens recently witnessed a futile attempt to impeach the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court. The news surprised many as it was the first-ever attempt to impeach a Chief Justice. The notice for impeachment was moved by a clutch of opposition party members of the Rajya Sabha (Upper House). Whilst the notice was rejected by the Rajya Sabha Chairman, its rejection was sought to be contested in the Supreme Court. The notice was ultimately withdrawn, leaving behind very grave concerns whether a Chief Justice of the apex court in the country should be the subject matter of such political machinations. It is widely believed that the credibility of such high accountability institutions should never be made a part of political upmanship |
| Date: | 15 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 580 : The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: Hopes Flicker but Hiccups Remain |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The skepticism and lethargy characterising the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations appear to be making way for cautious optimism. Frequent ministerial and bilateral consultations reflect a new sense of urgency. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s mention of the need for an early conclusion of the deal during his recent visit to Southeast Asia has also raised hopes of India being more proactive in the RCEP talks. However, much work needs to be done before negotiations can conclude. This paper looks at the problems affecting the RCEP and reasons behind India’s reservations with the deal. While the RCEP can conclude only through a political understanding among its members, a formalised RCEP can bring good tidings for global trade. |
| Date: | 14 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 579 : Ramzan Ceasefire: Peace Interludes in Kashmir and Afghanistan |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | Initiatives for ceasefires on the occasion of Ramzan this year in Kashmir and Afghanistan have opened a brief window for political and diplomatic engagement among the parties involved. |
| Date: | 13 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 578 : Pakistan Prepares for the Polls: A Caretaker Government takes charge |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has named a caretaker prime minister, Nasir ul-Mulk (the former justice), to head a temporary government for three months. Such an arrangement will also be made in the provinces, as the country heads towards the national elections, now scheduled for 25 July 2018. This paper analyses the lead-up to the appointment of such an interim arrangement and attempts at what might be a prognosis with regard to the immediate aftermath of the polls. The all-pervading role of the military is touched upon, and some predictions are made on the results of the elections, albeit briefly. |
| Date: | 31 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 577 : Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: An Unlikely Alliance forms the Government |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Almost 10 days after a hung verdict in the Karnataka Assembly elections in India, a Congress-Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)] coalition won a vote of confidence on the floor of the House on 25 May 2018. In the elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 104 seats, but fell short of a majority by eight seats in the 224-member Karnataka Assembly. Both the BJP and the second-placed Congress, which teamed up with JD(S), a regional party, staked a claim to form the government. This was followed by a dramatic sequence of events which included the swearing in of the BJP’s leader, B S Yeddyurappa, as chief minister, the Supreme Court’s intervention in bringing forward the date of the trust vote, Yeddyurappa’s resignation and the eventual appointment of JD(S) president, H D Kumaraswamy, as chief minister |
| Date: | 28 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 25 May 2018 – BIMSTEC – Bridging the Bay of Bengal: Linking South and Southeast Asia |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | 25 September 2018, Singapore – Underpinning the importance of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) as a key regional grouping around the rim of the Bay of Bengal, experts called for greater focus on the grouping, including institutional efforts on BIMSTEC studies. |
| Date: | 25 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 576 : Bangladesh’s Graduation and Economic Realignment within South Asia |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh recently met the criteria for graduating from a least developed country (LDC) to a lower-middle developing country. This marks the progress recorded by Bangladesh on economic as well as social and human development indicators. This paper compares Bangladesh’s economic progress in recent years with those of India and Pakistan. It argues Bangladesh’s ability to raise per capita income faster would enable it to catch up with Pakistan in the near future and reduce its economic gap with India, leading to a major economic realignment within South Asia. |
| Date: | 23 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 575 : Graduating from the List of Least Developed Countries: What It Means for Bangladesh? |
| Author/s: | Md Mustafizur Rahman |
| Abstract: | The recent declaration by the United Nations that Bangladesh is eligible to graduate out of Least Developed Countries (LDC) group is a watershed moment in the nation’s history. When Bangladesh achieved independence in 1971, many doubted the future of the country. It was dubbed as an economic basket case by some. From that situation, the country has made great strides – a complete economic turnaround. Today, Bangladesh is the 32nd largest economy in the world, with a gross domestic product of US$220 billion (S$295.5 billion), export volume of US$35 billion (S$47 billion) and a foreign currency reserve of over US$33 billion (S$44.3 billion), which is the second highest in South Asia. It is now a politically stable, economically sound and socially thriving country. |
| Date: | 23 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 574 : Trump, Kim and Moon: Speed Bumps on the Road to Singapore |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Recent developments, such as the battle of words between the North Koreans and the Americans, appear to be calling into question the planned summit between United States President Donald Trump and North Korea’s Supreme Commander Kim Jong-un in Singapore on 12 June 2018. A cancellation of the event would be most unfortunate. South Korea’s President Moon Jae-in is travelling to Washington to try salvage the situation. Should he succeed in putting the rails of peace back on the track again, it would have positive ramifications, both for the region, including South Asia, and the world. |
| Date: | 22 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 573 : The Emergence of E-commerce in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Rahul Choudhury |
| Abstract: | Like many other parts of the world, the South Asian countries have witnessed the emergence of the electronic commerce (e-commerce) sector in recent times. With a large market and growing incomes, the region has become attractive to many international players in the field. At the same time, many firms have evolved domestically in the region. The South Asian governments have also responded positively to this growth through the development of some digital infrastructure. This paper presents the current state of play of the e-commerce sector in South Asia. |
| Date: | 15 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 572 : Walmart’s Buyout of Flipkart: Implications for Indian E-commerce Landscape |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit and Rahul Choudhury |
| Abstract: | Walmart’s acquisition of a 77-per cent stake in Flipkart in India is a win-win deal for both entities. This paper studies the deal from the perspectives of both companies and indicates that India’s electronic commerce (e-commerce) will now be a turf battle between American retail giants, Walmart and Amazon. Following the domination of Indian e-commerce by foreign retailers, the paper also ponders on the kind of shifts this might entail for future Indian retail regulations. |
| Date: | 14 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 571 : Reconciliation in Sri Lanka: A Flawed Model? |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | The sectarian violence in the city of Kandy, Sri Lanka, in March 2018 and the immediate imposition of a nationwide state of emergency have signalled that a lasting and just peace remains a distant prospect. Sri Lanka was once viewed as a possible peacebuilding success story on the international front. However, the respective transitional justice framework launched by the previous and current administrations has been largely unsuccessful. This paper will identify the country’s primary stakeholders and their vested interests in the reconciliation efforts. The current reconciliation model in Sri Lanka is a combination of retributive and restorative justice. The paper will argue that the model needs to adopt a complete restorative justice approach in order to achieve reconciliation and reach a peacebuilding (durable peace without the recurrence of violence) stage |
| Date: | 7 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 570 : Karnataka Assembly Elections 2018: A Close Contest on the Cards |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The southern Indian State of Karnataka goes to the polls on 12 May 2018. The elections are particularly important for the Congress, since Karnataka, along with Punjab, are the only two major States governed by the party. For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), too, this is a significant election since it does not have a presence in any of the southern Indian States. However, a third player, the Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)], could play the role of kingmaker if the election results are close. |
| Date: | 7 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 569 : The Afghanistan Conundrum: The Problem it may pose for the Muslim World |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | The United States’ redefined effort in Afghanistan and the pressure it is putting on Pakistan to provide help to Washington are not producing the desired results in this critical area. By all accounts, the situation is worsening on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border. These developments should cause worry not only in Kabul, Islamabad and Washington, but also in a number of other capitals around the world. This paper provides a quick read of the developing situation. |
| Date: | 26 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 568 : Indo-Israeli Relations: Sailing in Uncharted Waters |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The maiden flight by an Air India jetliner from New Delhi to Tel Aviv on 22 March 2018 via Saudi Arabia’s airspace signals many firsts for all three countries. It is also emblematic of the shifting geopolitical sands in the region. This paper looks at the significance of the flight and highlights some challenges that need to be addressed as well as the road ahead, particularly for India, in this new climate of cordiality in the Middle East. |
| Date: | 16 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 567 : United States-China Trade War: Tremors for India and South Asia |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | While the latest United States (US) trade actions are targetted specifically at China, they have wider implications. The effects of the tariffs would reverberate across Asian manufacturing supply chains and would also be felt by Indian and South Asian firms. Furthermore, the ‘Made in China’ tariffs might not result in the relocation of more finalproduct assembling to India, as the country too remains on the US radar for possible trade actions |
| Date: | 13 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 566 : Bypolls in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar: The Bharatiya Janata Party on the Back Foot |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | In the latest round of by-elections in three Lok Sabha ((Lower House of Parliament)) constituencies in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Bihar, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost in all three seats. The BJP’s loss in Gorakhpur, which was vacated by Yogi Adityanath after he was appointed the Chief Minister of UP in 2017, to the Samajwadi Party (SP) was perhaps the most significant result. One of the most important aspects of the BJP’s loss in Gorakhpur was the coming together of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and the SP. If the SP and the BSP can forge an alliance for the 2019 national elections, it is likely to have a critical impact on the outcome. |
| Date: | 19 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 565 : The Payments Banks in India: A Great Initiative but Challenges Remain |
| Author/s: | Rahul Choudhury |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India issued in-principle licences to 11 different entities to establish payments banks in India in August 2015. This initiative is a historical step – there is no such banking structure in operation in any other part of the world. Fully based on modern technology, these payments banks are expected to bring the huge unbanked population of India under the formal banking system. This paper analyses how the payments banks were established, and the opportunities they offer and challenges faced by them. |
| Date: | 16 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 564 : Trump Tariffs, National Security, Trade and India: Sensing Scenarios |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The United States (US) President Donald Trump’s decision to increase tariffs on steel and aluminum imports into the US has caused widespread concern over the prospects of a global trade war. This paper argues that the US’ decision to raise tariffs on national security grounds might create a disturbing precedent. Focusing on the likely impact of the tariffs on India, it points out that, while the immediate effect might be limited, India needs to watch out for specific actions like ‘reciprocal tax’ that can follow in future. |
| Date: | 15 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 563 : President Xi Jinping’s Domination Promises Stability |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | The decision of the Communist Party of China (CPC) to remove the two-term limit on the country’s presidency is inviting a great deal of commentary, particularly in the West. Most of it is negative. It needs to be recognised that the constitutional limit applies only to the office of the president. It does not cover the secretary generalship of the CPC or the chairmanship of the Military Commission. In fact, these two positions are the source of real power in China. It was only after the end of the Deng Xiaoping era that the three offices were combined and given to one man. Jiang Zemin was the first person to hold the three positions from 1993 to 2003, followed by Hu Jintao from 2003 to 2013. Xi Jinping is the third incumbent. That said, the move to remove the limit on the tenure of the president is of global significance. |
| Date: | 14 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 562 : Elections in Northeast India: The Bharatiya Janata Party wins in Tripura, Makes Inroads in Nagaland and Meghalaya |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The results of the Assembly elections in three States in Northeast India were announced on 3 March 2018. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a remarkable victory in Tripura, ending 25 years of the Left Front’s rule in the State. In the Christian-majority States of Nagaland and Meghalaya, the BJP made significant advances to ally with and help regional parties form the government. The elections in the Northeast have increased the national footprint of the BJP and allowed it to play up its inclusive character. |
| Date: | 11 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 561 : What Next For ASEAN-India Ties? |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | When the Heads of State of all the Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states sat side by side with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the Republic Day parade in New Delhi on 26 January 2018, it was an unmistakable sign of the growing warmth in the ties between India and Southeast Asia. The challenge now would be for both sides to take the relationship to the next level. |
| Date: | 7 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 560 : More Power For President Xi Jinping A Return To Authoritarian Rule In China? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | China is going through another political transformation. With President Xi Jinping given another term in office, the country appears to have reverted to authoritarian rule. This paper examine the past to put the recent developments in Beijing in a historical context. |
| Date: | 6 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 559 : India And The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank: Sustained Engagement Notwithstanding Anxieties |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India has emerged as the largest borrower from the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), much to the surprise of many. This paper studies the details of the AIIB’s funding for infrastructure projects in India. It argues India’s heavy use of the AIIB’s funds can be explained by its hunger for infrastructure finance, long-term economic viability of its projects and the AIIB’s eagerness to work with multiple stakeholders. These factors have led to heavy engagement between India and the AIIB, notwithstanding India’s opposition to China-led infrastructure initiatives like the Belt and Road. |
| Date: | 6 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 558 : The Punjab National Bank Fraud In India: Failure Of Institutional Controls And Oversights |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | In mid-February 2018, India was rocked by the revelation of a US$1.77 billion (S$2.34 billion) fraud case at a single branch of one of the country’s largest state-run banks, Punjab National Bank (PNB). The PNB scandal reflects the failure of institutional controls and oversight mechanisms. The correctives must emerge from a strong enforcement of ethical standards of institutional behaviour. |
| Date: | 2 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 557 : India’s Strategic Engagement With The Middle East |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | On 10 February 2018, Narendra Modi became the first Indian prime minister to visit the Palestinian territories. He arrived in Ramallah in a helicopter from neighbouring Jordan, escorted by Israeli Air Force choppers. The trip to Jordan also marked a milestone as the first prime ministerial visit in 30 years. Next on the four-day agenda was the United Arab Emirates, where Modi was paying a second visit in less than three years, followed by a maiden visit for him to Oman. Aside from the fanfare and symbolism of Modi’s personalised style of diplomacy, there is clear strategic intent behind the efforts to deepen relations with countries to the west of India. |
| Date: | 22 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 556 : Elections In Meghalaya: The Stakes For The Political Parties |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The Assembly elections in the hill State of Meghalaya in India on 27 February 2018 will be keenly watched as they could indicate the direction in which the political headwinds are blowing in Northeast India. It would also be interesting to see if the Bharatiya Janata Party’s electoral agenda and efforts are able to find favour with the populace of this Christiandominated State |
| Date: | 21 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 555 : Political Transformation In Bangladesh: From Despair To Hope? |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy |
| Abstract: | In early February 2018, a special court in Dhaka, Bangladesh, sentenced former Bangladeshi Prime Minister Begum Khaleda Zia and other accused in an orphanage corruption case to rigorous imprisonment. The verdict is important for the state of national politics in Bangladesh. This brief highlights the implications of the judicial ruling on political developments Bangladesh. |
| Date: | 19 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 554 : Tripura Assembly Election: Stiff Challenge For The Left From The Bharatiya Janata Party |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Tripura will be one of three States in Northeast India that will go to the polls in February 2018. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will be keen to continue its successful run in the Northeast where, since 2014, it has formed the government, either on its own or in alliance, in three States – Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur. The BJP has also specifically targeted Tripura, since the Left, an ideological rival of the BJP, has been continuously in power in the State for the last 25 years. |
| Date: | 12 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 553 : Political Turmoil In Paradise: The Unfolding Of The Maldivian Crisis |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | On 1 February 2018, the Supreme Court of the Maldives ordered the government to release all political prisoners and called on the legislature to hold its first meeting in 2018. This resulted in tensions between President Abdulla Yameen and the judiciary. In an attempt to forcefully re-establish its authority, the government imposed a State of Emergency and curtailed the basic rights of its citizens. As a result of the government’s crackdown, the Supreme Court annulled its earlier order on 6 February 2018. This paper traces the outbreak of the political turmoil in the Maldives and looks at the response of the international community to the crisis. |
| Date: | 9 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 552 : Mayhem In The Maldives: A Pugnacious President Confronts A Court-Driven Crisis |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The Maldives, with its abundance of scenic beauty endowed by nature, is unfortunately submerged by political turmoil. The current burgeoning crisis, which appears to be worsening by the day, could, unless properly addressed, turn into a proxy war between India and China with all its unfortunate ramifications. This paper points to a window of possibility as to how it could be avoided. |
| Date: | 8 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 551 : The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership: India Should Join The Asian Trade Block |
| Author/s: | Girija Pande |
| Abstract: | India’s planned participation in the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) has seemingly caused concerns within the Indian industry of the possible flooding of cheap Chinese imports into the Indian market. Similarly, its international trade position, and commitments with China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have brought to the forefront the benefits and challenges India will experience by joining the RCEP. This paper analyses the opportunities that the RCEP provides to India to achieve its long-term domestic economic goals and to further India-ASEAN economic cooperation even if the trade pact focusses just on trade in goods and does not include services. |
| Date: | 7 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 550 : Growing ASEAN-India Ties: Economic Opportunities For Singapore In India |
| Author/s: | Chan Jia Hao |
| Abstract: | The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-India ties mark their 25th anniversary in 2017. India’s transformation from its ‘Look East’ policy to an ‘Act East’ policy has resulted in the country becoming more committed in pursuing its long-term domestic economic goals, alongside a particularly stronger focus in its economic relations with ASEAN. Singapore is India’s largest investment partner in ASEAN. This paper analyses the roles Singapore could play in boosting its bilateral trading and investment relations with India. |
| Date: | 30 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 549 : Emerging Contours In India-Israel Relations: Progress, Pitfalls And Prospects |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | India has grown closer to Israel during Narendra Modi’s period of office as India’s prime minister. However, he has also sought to maintain close ties with Israel’s foes – the Arab States and Iran – at the same time. This paper examines, as this policy unfolds, successfully so far, the pitfalls might it confront and whether there is an opportunity in it for a peacemaking initiative that could gain international kudos for Modi. |
| Date: | 26 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 548 : Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu In India: New Delhi Seeks Balance In The Middle East |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to India in January 2018 and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Israel in July 2017 together mark the new prospect for political engagement between the two nations at the highest level. Although domestic political disputations have cast a shadow in the past over India’s engagement with the Middle East, under Modi, New Delhi is attempting to bring greater pragmatism and balance to its regional policy. |
| Date: | 23 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 547 : India’s Politics In 2018: Elections Hold The Key To Government Policy |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | There will be eight Assembly elections in India in 2018, followed by the national elections in 2019. Much of what will transpire in 2018 in the areas of politics and governance will largely be dictated by the elections. Unlike the Uttar Pradesh Assembly election in 2017, where the Bharatiya Janata Party won a crushing victory, the elections in 2018 are all likely to be much closer. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi still enjoys high approval ratings, the opposition would be looking to exploit the rural discontent in large parts of the country. |
| Date: | 21 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 546 : India’s Economy In 2018: Combating Macroeconomic Challenges |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | As the Indian government gets set to present its next Budget on 1 February 2018, it is looking at multiple macroeconomic challenges that include maintaining fiscal discipline and containing consumer prices. This paper studies the trend in the central government finances and emphasises the urgency to improve revenues. It also draws attention to the challenges posed by rising consumer prices and the imperative to contain inflation so as to revive investment and preserve fiscal health. |
| Date: | 21 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 545 : Sri Lanka In 2018: Towards A Bold New Vision |
| Author/s: | Chulanee Attanayake |
| Abstract: | As Sri Lanka enters 2018, it carries with it a number of key issues from the previous year. Its economy faces serious challenges due to the lack of adequate revenue generation to meet its demands. Health and food security pose challenges to social security. The Indian Ocean geopolitics will also continue to influence the island nation. In this backdrop, the task for the government would be to achieve the goals and objectives set out in “Vision 2025: A Country Enriched” – the policy document of the government. |
| Date: | 21 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 544 : Bhutan In 2018: Economic And Geopolitical Adjustments For Long Term Prosperity |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | Bhutan will continue to face economic difficulties in 2018. This is largely due to the impact of economic reforms in India such as the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax. However, the large scale hydroelectric power projects in Bhutan will strengthen its ongoing economic integration with India. On the foreign policy front, there will be issues, from time to time, between India and China. Bhutan will, therefore, need to perform a balancing act between its two large neighbours to ensure that its own foreign policy priorities are not compromised. That would be a tough act! |
| Date: | 21 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 543 : Bangladesh In 2018: Challenges And Prospects |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | It is quite possible that 2018 will witness the next general elections in Bangladesh. This paper is a prognosis of how the politics, economics and foreign policy of Bangladesh are likely to evolve in the current year. |
| Date: | 16 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 542 : The Maldives In 2018: Facing Uncertain And Unpredictable Times |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | With the rise of Islamist groups, society and politics in the Maldives have witnessed notable changes in recent times. These are reflected in the internal political developments of the country and in foreign policy-related decisions taken by its government. Islamism will continue to spread in the Maldives in 2018 and it will further spread its influence across the country’s social and political spheres. |
| Date: | 16 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 541 : Afghanistan In 2018: A Defining Moment In Its Troubled History |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | If the year’s beginning is a prelude to what is likely to follow, 2018 will be a difficult year for Afghanistan. It may lay the ground on which the country is likely to travel. This paper first discusses the sources of extreme violence that greeted the dawn of 2018 and place it in the context of some developments outside the country’s borders. It follows up with a brief analysis of domestic political developments that do not augur well for the future. This paper then analyses how the serious United States-Pakistan spat is likely to affect Afghanistan and concludes with a brief focus on how China’s ambitions in the Asian mainland may influence the Afghan future. |
| Date: | 16 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 540 : Nepal In 2018: The Challenge Of Building A ‘New Nepal’ |
| Author/s: | S D Muni |
| Abstract: | In 2018, Nepal’s new leadership is expected to face challenges in its internal political restructuring and in its engagement with the neighbourhood. There will be slippery steps and steep slopes in both these areas. This paper looks at the challenges that the present leadership needs to address. Failing this could push the polity into a directionless chaos. |
| Date: | 16 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 539 : Pakistan In 2018: Defying The Odds To Come Out Stronger |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Pakistan in 2018 will face some existential threats as well as put to test its ability to move towards a more robust political and economic future. While it is easy to be pessimistic about the country's future, it is more likely that the country will defy the odds and come out stronger at the end. The recent moves by the United States to “punish” Pakistan for not doing its bidding is likely to place the country firmly in China's orbit. This paper examines how 2018 may shape up for Pakistan |
| Date: | 16 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 538 : The Year Gone By: The Old Order, Globalisation And The New Era |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Several key developments took place in 2017 which challenged the old order of post-World War Two as well as brought to fore the failure of globalisation to benefit many groups of people around the world. The year also witnessed the steady emergence of China, which, with its ‘new era’ vision, seems destined to play a larger role in global affairs. This paper examines the key developments in 2017 which are likely to have ramifications on the international system |
| Date: | 12 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 537 : Rajnikanth’s Entry Into Party Politics: Implications For Tamil Nadu |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | Movie-star Rajnikanth’s decision to enter party politics has created much hype as well as hope for political change in Tamil Nadu. The State is in political chaos, with widespread corruption at the political and bureaucratic levels. However, despite Rajnikanth’s fame and popularity among the people of South India, this paper contends that he will face a tough challenge in taking on seasoned political players and in turning things around in Tamil Nadu. |
| Date: | 8 January 2018 |
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| Title: | 536 : Blocking Of American Aid To Pakistan: A Great Asian Divide In The Offing? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Washington has indicated that it will block the promised flow of aid to Islamabad to punish it for not doing as much as the Americans want in bringing under control the activities of terrorist groups operating from bases in Pakistan. Some of what the Americans have promised Islamabad is not economic assistance but compensation for the use of Pakistan’s transport infrastructure to supply its troops in landlocked Afghanistan. This paper addresses the question of the impact of the action by the Americans on the long-term break in the off-and-on relationship between the United States and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 2 January 2018 |
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