| Title: | 148 : Sri Lanka’s Presidential Election 2010: The Choice before Pluralist Democrats |
| Author/s: | Dayan Jayatilleka, Visiting Senior Research Fellow-designate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Sri Lankan presidential election will take place in January 2010. Seeking a fresh mandate prior to the expiration of his first term in 2011, President Mahinda Rajapakse's main challenger will be his former Chief of Defence Staff, General Sarath Fonseka, who played a key role in the defeat of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. This paper compares the two candidates and concludes that, between President Rajapakse and General Fonseka, continuity is better than change; within the government, change is imperative; and between the government and the opposition, change may be better than continuity. |
| Date: | 29 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 147 : Pakistan’s Supreme Court and the National Reconciliation Order: What Now for Pakistan? |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | This brief looks at the potential implications of the Supreme Court's decision on rendering null and void the National Reconciliation Order promulgated by General Pervez Musharraf in 2007, which stopped investigations and prosecutions against over 8,000 individuals for corruption and other wrongdoings. The brief suggests that, while the judgment in itself is a welcome decision, its political repercussions need to be carefully managed and that Pakistan's goal of returning to a vibrant democracy not be derailed in the process. |
| Date: | 22 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 146 : The Dubai Debt Debacle: Likely Impact on South Asia |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the ongoing debt crisis in Dubai and other recent economic setbacks in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and assesses their likely impact on South Asia. Owing to the region's lower exposure to Dubai World's over-leveraged debt, the impact on South Asia's financial markets is likely to be limited. However, South Asia's real economies, particularly those related to remittances, could be adversely affected as Dubai's real estate bubble bursts and the UAE counts the impact of the financial crisis. The real downside risk for the South Asian region, nevertheless, is the sustainability of the dubious 'Dubai model' which has been emulated in the Gulf neighbourhood and one that absorbs a large number of South Asia's surplus manpower. |
| Date: | 11 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 145 : Unwinding the Fiscal Stimulus – Dilemmas for India and China |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper states that, with the return of economic growth in India and China, policy makers are concerned about inflationary pressures as well as growing asset price bubbles. The causes of concern arise from different macroeconomic fundamentals in the two countries, and accordingly, the strategies are different. For the world at large, of the two countries, the consequences of China not getting it right are much more serious. This paper examines some of the concerns. |
| Date: | 11 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 144 : Climate Change Challenges: Leading up to Copenhagen |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow-designate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The climate change summit began in Copenhagen on 7 December 2009. The climate in which it began was somewhat better than most analysts and observers had believed would be the case. There was greater optimism as the opening ceremony was held. This was largely the result of the announcements made by the United States, China and India - three of the four largest polluters of the atmosphere - a few days before the summit was convened, that they will be willing to take a number of important steps to control the amount of carbon their economies were putting out in the atmosphere. While in Singapore on his visit to Asia, United States President Barack Obama met with a number of world leaders and agreed that there was not enough time to produce an enforceable international treaty at Copenhagen. There will, instead, be a focus on developing political consensus to produce such a treaty in 2010, possibly as soon as the summer of next year. President Obama also indicated that he would be addressing the summit at the beginning of the week-long session. This brief discusses the lead up to the summit and the positions taken by some of the more important players. The second brief will examine the outcome of the summit. |
| Date: | 10 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 143 : A Tale of Two Visits: The India-US-China Relationship |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In November 2009, United States' President Barack Obama visited China, and Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh went on a state visit to the United States (US). Many in India closely followed President Obama's visit to Beijing, while Dr Singh's trip to Washington was intimately charted in China. Presently, there are three significant issue areas in this triangular relationship that resonate deeply in both New Delhi and Beijing. These are: (1) carbon emission caps; (2) Afghanistan-Pakistan; and (3) the India-US civilian nuclear deal and global non-proliferation regimes. |
| Date: | 7 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 142 : The United States in Afghanistan: President Obama decides to fight the war his way |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow-designate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The decision to send in more American troops to Afghanistan was a long time coming. The strategy was finalised by President Barack after he met with his war council on Monday, 23 November 2009. This was the tenth high level meeting chaired by the president a couple of days after his return from his first visit to Asia. The decision was announced on 1 December 2009 in a televised address to the nation delivered in front of the cadets of the West Point Academy. In that respect the president was following the precedence set by former President George H. W. Bush who had used the military as the backdrop for announcing some of his strategies. President Obama revealed at the point when he held the press conference with the visiting Indian Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh that he had made up his mind of the troop level the United States will maintain in Afghanistan. The president walked a fine line between the two positions taken by his advisers: some wanted him to pursue what has come to be called the counter-insurgency approach while the latter advocated a counter-terrorism strategy. The first is aimed at using considerable amount of force to overcome insurgency while undertaking intensive development of the liberated terrain. The second is aimed at concentrating fire power on the strongholds from where the terrorists are launching their attacks. The strategy adopted by President Obama calls for a rapid build-up of the force in Afghanistan with the promise to begin the process of drawdown eighteen months after the troop build-up. During this period the Afghan force is to be built up with the expectation that as the Americans withdraw, the country's own military and police force would be able to take care of security. |
| Date: | 3 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 141 : Hamid Karzai’s Second Term as Afghanistan’s President: Promises, Challenges and Prospects |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow-designate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Hamid Karzai was sworn in as Afghanistan’s president on 19 November 2009 after being ratified as the winner in the elections held on 20 August 2009. The long delay in being sworn in was caused by the successful challenge launched by Dr Abdullah Abdullah to the election results. Abdullah had received the second highest votes in the contested elections. A run-off election was ordered for 7 November 2009 but was cancelled when Abdullah withdrew from the contest, clearing the way for the swearing-in ceremony. |
| Date: | 24 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 140 : Pakistan’s Nuclear Weapons: How Safe Are They? |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | With the assault on the office of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in Peshawar on 13 November 2009, which left at least 20 people dead, including 10 ISI officials, the Taliban-Al Qaeda nexus has once again demonstrated that it is capable of hitting the supposedly well-guarded targets representing the power and authority of the state. A few weeks earlier, they were able to deceive the guards at the entry of the citadel of the Pakistan army, the General Headquarters, in Rawalpindi. On that occasion, more than 40 people were taken hostage, of whom 37 were rescued due to a daring operation by the commandos of the elite Special Services Group. |
| Date: | 18 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 139 : A ‘New’ Japan and Possible Implications for Japan-India Relations |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh |
| Abstract: | The victory of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in the Japanese Lower House elections in late August 2009 brought to an end half a century of uninterrupted rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japanese politics. It also signalled a potential “revolution” in Japan’s domestic and foreign policies. However, with about two months into this new DPJ era, in terms of Japanese foreign policy at least, it is yet unclear as to how radical a departure this new government will take from the central tenets of the preceding Japanese foreign policy |
| Date: | 17 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 138 : President Obama’s First Asian Visit |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This is the first of two briefs on the United States’ evolving relations with East Asia – with the region as well as the countries in the area. The first provides the context in which United States President Barack Obama will undertake his first official visit to the region. The second will examine what the American president accomplishes during the visit and what its long-term consequences will be for the relations between these two important parts of the global economy. It should be noted that in preparing for the visit, President Obama consulted with Lee Kuan Yew, Singapore’s veteran leader, who impressed upon him the importance Washington must give to economics, in particular to trade, in basing its relations with the region. The Obama visit comes at a time when China is leading the world out of what has come to be described as the “Great Recession”. Its fast developing economy is intertwined in several different ways that call for good working relations between Beijing and Washington. These need to be based not on ad hoc exchanges between the two leadership groups but on solid and durable institutional arrangements. What we are seeing is the evolution of G2 at the apex of a new world order. |
| Date: | 9 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 137 : Afghanistan Presidential Elections 2009: The ‘Run-off’ That Never Was |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | president, the country’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) declared Hamid Karzai, the sitting president, as the winner. He was to face a run-off with Dr Abdullah Abdullah, the man who polled the second highest number of votes in the elections held on 20 August 2009. Initial results had Karzai winning well over one-half of the total votes cast. The results were, however, contested and, after a recount of some of the suspicious votes, Karzai’s share fell below one-half, necessitating a run-off between the two candidates winning the most votes. The run-off election was scheduled for 7 November 2009. On 1 November 2009, Dr Abdullah withdrew as a candidate leading the IEC to declare Karzai the winner. Immediately after the IEC’s announcement, the United Nations, the United States and other North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) countries declared that they were ready to work with the new government to bring peace and development to the country that had gone through a series of civil wars since the Soviet Union sent in its troops in 1979. Would Karzai be able to win the support of the people not with the Taliban to fight the Taliban? At this point in time, most analysts would suggest that more troubles lie ahead for the country. |
| Date: | 4 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 136 : Hillary Clinton’s Visit to Pakistan: An Exercise in Trust Deficit Reduction |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The United States- Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, paid a recent three-day visit to Pakistan at a time when terrorism perpetrated by the Taliban-Al-Qaeda forces was wrecking havoc in the country. The United States and Pakistan are allies in the fight against the terrorists, but between themselves, they suffer a trust deficit. This paper examines the nature of the trust deficit and its implications for the fight against terrorism. |
| Date: | 3 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 135 : Indian Assembly Elections 2009: Another Blow for the Bharatiya Janata Party |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the results of the recent assembly elections in three Indian states – Maharashtra, Haryana and Arunachal Pradesh. The Congress Party won in all three states while the principal opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), suffered another defeat at the hustings. Apart from outlining the results of all the three states, this paper analyses the reasons for the Congress Party’s victory and the BJP’s defeat. A key observation of the election results is that, apart from Arunachal Pradesh, the Congress Party’s successes in Maharashtra and Haryana were not entirely convincing. What unequivocally emerged, however, was that the BJP’s lacklustre campaign contributed to the Congress Party’s victories. The BJP, bereft of any leadership, virtually lost the elections even before they began. |
| Date: | 3 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 134 : Afghanistan Presidential Elections 2009: The Run-up to the Run-off |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | In my fourth brief on Afghanistan’s presidential elections held on 20 August 2009, I explore the consequences of the findings by the independent, United Nations-managed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) about the irregularities committed in the elections. The ECC’s revised tally of votes gives President Hamid Karzai less than 50 percent of the total. Its findings were accepted by the Karzai government under pressure from the West, in particular the United States, Britain and France. As a result, 7 November 2009 has been set as the date of the run-off election between Karzai and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, Minister of Foreign Affairs in an earlier Karzai administration. The findings were anticipated but they have complicated the United States’ mission in Afghanistan. They have come at a time when the administration of President Barack Obama is reviewing Washington’s strategy, not only in the country but also in the region the policymakers called ‘AfPak’ – Afghanistan and Pakistan. The prospect of another election has created even more uncertainty and has coincided with an intensive campaign of terror by Islamic insurgents across the border in Pakistan. The Pakistani government has responded with a full-fledged military assault on South Waziristan that started on 17 October 2009. It is clear that what happens in one country will profoundly impact on the other. |
| Date: | 26 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 133 : South Waziristan: The Beginning of Pakistan’s Military Campaign |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | In this first of a series of briefs that will follow Pakistan’s military campaign to oust the Taliban from the South Waziristan tribal agency – one of the seven that constitute Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas – I will provide some details about the background of the ongoing conflict between the Pakistani state and the stateless Islamic insurgents. The army’s operation in South Waziristan began on 17 October 2009 when 30,000 soldiers began to slowly move into the area inhabited by the fiercely independent Mehsud tribe. The tribe formed the backbone of the Tehrik-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP), now led by Hakimullah Mehsud. The new leader took over when an attack by an American Predator killed Baitullah Mehsud, who was accused of ordering a number of murderous attacks on various targets in Pakistan. He was also alleged to have been the mastermind behind the assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007. The military had declared its intention of a major assault on the Mehsuds in the area. It began after a week of terrorist attacks for which the TTP took responsibility. The attacks, including one on the army headquarters in Rawalpindi on 10 and 11 October 2009, took 175 lives. It was reported that the move into South Waziristan by the military had the full support of the United States which is rushing in supplies needed by the Pakistani forces. |
| Date: | 13 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 132 : Suffering Terrorism but Flirting with Populism: Pakistan’s Current Predicaments |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Taliban-Al-Qaeda nexus has, in recent days, mounted a number of bloody terrorist assaults in Pakistan, including the nerve centre of the Pakistan armed forces and general headquarters in Rawalpindi, causing several fatalities and injuries. Disappointingly, the national debate in Pakistan has instead focused on the Kerry-Lugar Bill that will provide economic and military aid worth US$7 billion for the next five years, alleging that it compromises Pakistani sovereignty. This paper argues that the real threat to Pakistani sovereignty is posed by the terrorists. |
| Date: | 13 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 131 : The Kerry-Lugar Bill: Difficult Choices for Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Consultant for the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As the United States Administration seems poised to engage effectively with the South Asian region, at least in the short run, the Kerry-Lugar Bill is meant to pursue these interests with support from Pakistan's beleaguered government. While the Pakistani government declares the aid passage as a triumph of its diplomacy, the critics claim that it is a sell-out of national sovereignty. They point to some of the 'degrading' conditions which Pakistan may be obliged to accept before aid can be disbursed. Given the track record of its aid disbursements, the United States Congress will perhaps not acquiesced to anything less. The aid will most likely continue with conditions as long as interests converge. |
| Date: | 5 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 130 : Afghanistan Presidential Election 2009: Inconclusive Results a Dilemma for the United States |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Serious doubts about the fairness of the Afghanistan presidential election held on 20 August 2009, increased casualties in the escalating fight, and some weakening of the European support for the war in Afghanistan have posed a serious dilemma for the administration of United States President Barack Obama. Washington had hoped to follow a classic counter-insurgency strategy which seemed to have succeeded in Iraq. This had three elements ÔÇô to split the opposition, to economically develop the areas in which the insurgents were active, and to use great force against those who continued to resist. However, for such a strategy to succeed, it required an Afghan government that is credible and legitimate, both to get the Afghans to support it and to get Americans and their allies to help. What is placed on hold is any kind of political reconciliation and attempting to split the Taliban. It is very difficult to do this without an Afghan government as an effective partner. The election of 20 August 2009 did not produce such a government. At the same time, the resolve of the American people and their allies in Europe to continue with the fight seems to be weakening. |
| Date: | 22 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 129 : India, Pakistan and Bangladesh: ‘Trilateralism’ in South Asia? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that, within the context of South Asia, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh have commonalities and potentials that could be positively developed through a policy of ‘trilateralism’. It would imply an informal process of identifying and categorising divisive issues into separate but not water-tight boxes and addressing them with a view to resolving them. Unlike the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), it would not avoid disputes but confront them. The idea would be to create a strategic ‘problem-solving’ partnership that could complement, and not supplant, the SAARC. |
| Date: | 16 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 128 : Japan Joins Changing Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The elections in Japan on 30 August 2009 are likely to take the country in an entirely different direction from the one it has pursued since the end of World War II. Then, it had allied itself closely with the United States, the country that gave it a new Constitution and promised it security against foreign aggression. It also gave an enormous amount of authority to the bureaucracy that wielded power much greater than that exercised by the elected representatives of the people. All that is set to change. When the opposition leader, Yukio Hatoyama, forms the government, he will set the country on a path that will begin to deviate significantly from the past. Change will come but it will arrive slowly. Since it is coming at a slow pace, it will perhaps endure over a long time. What the world may see is a significant restructuring of the global political and economic order, particularly in Asia. There will be changes in five areas, all of them significant for the world. Japan will begin to address the problem posed by a rapidly ageing population, it will redirect public money towards the less advantaged segments of the population, it will reduce the power of the bureaucracy, it will redefine its relations with the United States, and it will get closer to its Asian neighbours, in particular China. |
| Date: | 7 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 127 : The New Irritant in United States-Pakistan Relations: The Harpoon Skirmish |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf |
| Abstract: | The New York Times report on 30 August 2009 on Pakistan’s illegal modification of “United States-supplied Harpoon missiles to expand its capability to strike land targets” has become a source of tension between the United States and Pakistan. While the Pakistanis have rejected this claim, it has raised concerns in Washington and New Delhi. This brief argues that the latest dispute could delay or even derail the United States’ legislation to provide aid to Pakistan. It concludes that, given the nature of mistrust between the two South Asian neighbours, Pakistan will continue to find ways and means to match India’s superiority in weaponry. |
| Date: | 4 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 126 : Afghanistan Elections 2009: The Day of Reckoning |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In my second brief of the series on the evolving situation in Afghanistan resulting from the presidential election held on 20 August 2009, I will look at some of the preliminary indications of what appears to have happened while the formal announcement of the outcome is awaited. The hope that the people will give a clear indication of their preferences was not realised. The country seems headed towards a breakdown of the social order essential to govern a multi-ethnic state. It appears that the hope that the election would contribute to political progress in South Asia is proving to be untrue. |
| Date: | 31 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 125 : The Afghanistan Presidential Elections: Dangerous Portends? |
| Author/s: | Shakti Sinha, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Afghanistan Presidential elections, scheduled for 20 August 2009, are interestingly poised. Unfortunately, the adjective ‘interesting’ also has negative connotations as in the traditional Chinese curse, “May you live in interesting times!” The reason is that the election results, far from leading war-ravaged Afghanistan towards peace and stability, may set the stage for further confrontation and increased instability. |
| Date: | 19 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 124 : ‘Silence is Golden’: India’s Current Position on Myanmar |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | There has been increasing international and regional criticism of Myanmar’s military regime in the wake of Aung San Suu Kyi’s recently-completed trial. The Indian government’s position, however, has been prominent for its silence on this issue. This paper points to three major factors for India’s silence – the China factor, its energy needs and the situation in its northeastern region – and concludes that this Indian position will persist into the near future. |
| Date: | 18 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 123 : Afghanistan Presidential Election 2009: Developments since the Fall of the Taliban |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This is the first of three briefs to be published by the Institute of South Asian Studies to put the forthcoming Afghanistan election in the context of developments in the country since the fall of the Taliban in December 2001. |
| Date: | 17 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 122 : Taleban Leader Baitullah Mehsud Dead: Is it the Beginning of the End of Terrorism? |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The reported death of the Pakistan Taleban leader, Baitullah Mehsud, is a major development in the ongoing struggle against terrorism. It undoubtedly carries crucial implications not only for peace and normalcy in Pakistan, but also in South Asia and indeed the wider world. This brief contextualises the events leading up to his death on 5 August 2009. It is suggested that Pakistan should not relent now. It is in Pakistan's best interest to dismantle the terrorist networks that still exist in its territory, notwithstanding the formal ban on them. |
| Date: | 11 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 121 : Inflationary Pressures in the Indian Economy1 |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent policy statement of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) signifies a departure from the stance that it had been adopting in the last three quarters. There are three elements that are different. First, in leaving key policy rates unchanged, it has acknowledged that liquidity is not an obstacle to growth at present, but banks are showing a reluctance to lend. Second, by acknowledging that the growth of money supply at 20 percent is high and needs to be brought down,3 the RBI is concerned about money growth. Third, in cautioning about inflationary pressures, the RBI is setting its sights on tightening monetary policy in the near term. All these have significant implications for the Indian economy. |
| Date: | 3 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 120 : Hillary Clinton’s Visit to India Differences Remain despite Positive Outcomes |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Four major issues dominated United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's visit to India from 17 to 21 July 2009. These were India's future role as a global player; Pakistan's commitment to fighting terrorism; defence and nuclear energy cooperation; climate change and caps on carbon emissions. Overall, the visit was significant as a signal of United States President Barack Obama's determination, moving forward, to build a broad-based political, economic and strategic relationship with India. |
| Date: | 23 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 119 : India and Pakistan: The Message from Sharm-el-Sheikh |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Indo-Pak Joint Statement on 16 July 2009 marks a significant concession on India's part on two points - i) the delinking of action by Pakistan against perpetrators of the Mumbai terrorist attacks from the Indo-Pak Composite Dialogue; and ii) the inclusion of Balochistan in future Indo-Pak discussions. India's Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, has been criticised at home for the statement but his stand lies in the larger interest of improving relations with Pakistan and addressing the concerns of the international community (with respect to the war on global terror). In doing so, Dr Singh has not compromised any of India's basic interests. |
| Date: | 22 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 118 : Can One Still Do Business in Nepal? |
| Author/s: | Binod K. Chaudhary, leader of the delegation of the Confederation of Nepalese Industries |
| Abstract: | The most critical question that comes to the mind of any businessman hoping to venture into Nepal at the present time is: “Can I really do business in Nepal?” This was the sentiment echoed by members of the Singapore Business Federation (SBF), the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), the Singaporean business community and Ambassador Gopinath Pillai, Chairman of ISAS, in his opening address during a workshop organised by the SBF to showcase Nepal on 9 June 2009. |
| Date: | 15 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 117 : The Indian Budget: A Failure to Confront the Challenges |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | There are moments in the lives of nations when those who rule can bring about profound changes in the lives of the ruled. In India, 1991 was such a moment when then-Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, facing an economic crisis of immense proportion, chose to break with the past. With a few bold strokes, he demolished the “License Raj” that had been put in place with such tender loving care by Jawaharlal Nehru and his political associates. The Raj had kept India stuck in an economic groove that produced what its own economists called the “Hindu rate of growth” – 3.5 percent a year when the population was increasing by almost two percent a year. That did not leave much room for the poor, and the poor, in whose name the Raj had been established, suffered immeasurably. India became tremendously impoverished, with 40 percent of its population living in absolute poverty. That proportion introduced a new term in economics – the bottom 40 percent. |
| Date: | 10 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 116 : The Indian Budget 2009-10: Opportunities for Singapore Investments |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India's budgetary numbers for 2009-10 have been unveiled by Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, on 6 July 2009. For international credit rating agencies and for foreign financial institutions, the foremost concern would be the fiscal deficit, which is budgeted to be the highest ever, at 6.8 percent. On the face of it, the Finance Minister is walking a fiscal tightrope, with the finances strained at close to unsustainable levels. |
| Date: | 9 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 115 : Indian Budget 2009-10: Carefully Crafted but Not Without Risks |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The budgetary numbers for the year 2009-10 were unveiled by Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee on 6 July 2009. |
| Date: | 8 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 114 : Pakistan’s Taliban Crisis – Savaging or Salvaging the State? |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Barely 18 months from its historic democratic elections of February 2008, Pakistan is mired in a war against domestic religious extremists. The country’s civilian political leadership and administration is still struggling to find its feet. Its relations with India have also deteriorated with the terrorist attacks in Mumbai by suspected Pakistan-based militants late last year. The increased Unites States military activity within Pakistani territory, especially its drone attacks against suspected Al-Qaeda bases, have added to the pressure on Pakistan’s government vis-à-vis its domestic constituency. Religious extremism poses a veritable threat to Pakistan from inside and out. |
| Date: | 2 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 113 : Booms and Busts in Private Capital Flows to Emerging Asia since the 1990s |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A decade or so after the financial crisis that hit Asia in 1997-98, the region once again experienced a severe capital account shock in 2008-09. How different has this boom and bust cycle of international capital flows been from the previous one? This brief examines the balance of payments dynamics in emerging Asia to understand the magnitude and types of private capital flows to and from the region between 1990 and 2008. |
| Date: | 1 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 112 : America’s New Approach towards Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | America’s sometimes on and sometimes off relationship with Pakistan is set to change.2 This is likely to happen in three significant ways. The legislations that have worked their way through the two chambers of the United States Congress will place the structure of America-Pakistan relations on new foundations. The roller-coaster ride will end and greater certainty will be introduced in the way Washington conducts business with Islamabad. The bills that have cleared the House of Representatives and the Senate promise a long-term United States commitment to Pakistan. The House version has a five-year time horizon during which assistance will be provided at an annual rate of US$1.5 billion. In the Senate version, the commitment is for the same annual amount but the time frame is open-ended. The two bills will be reconciled by a conference committee that will be established by the two chambers. United States’ President Barack Obama has indicated that he wants a deep and durable relationship with Pakistan. He is likely to sign the aid to Pakistan act whenever it emerges out of the Congress which will probably be in September 2009 after the summer recess. |
| Date: | 1 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 111 : Foreign Bank Entry Reconsidered |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS and Sasidaran Gopalan, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Until the mid-1990s, the banking systems in most of Asia remained heavily regulated, and barriers to foreign competition were prohibitively high. However, in the aftermath of the East Asian crisis of 1997-98, financial sector restructuring, including the revamp of the financial regulations, has been an important element in the structural adjustment programmes in Indonesia, Korea, Thailand and the Philippines. Broadly, governments in the crisis-hit regional economies have restructured their financial systems by shutting down commercial banks and finance companies, merging some existing institutions and nationalising others, injecting public funds to recapitalised viable banks, putting in place systematic asset resolution strategies, as well as easing regulatory impediments to foreign bank entry. Other countries in the region such as China and India have also taken steps towards financial deregulation. |
| Date: | 15 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 110 : The Global Financial Crisis and Cross-border Mergers and Acquisitions in Developing Asia |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan and Rabin Hattari |
| Abstract: | The global outward foreign direct investment (FDI) stock, which stood at US$14 billion in 1970, increased over 140 times to almost US$2,000 billion by 2007. Of importance also is the fact that a large part of the upsurge in global FDI has been due to mergers and acquisitions (M&As) of existing entities, as opposed to establishing an entirely new entity (that is, 'Greenfield' investment). According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), global cross-border M&A deal in 2006 were valued at around US$880 billion, having peaked in 2000 at almost US$1,200 billion. In comparison, there were a negligible number of deals pre-1980 and a relatively modest US$150 billion worth of M&A deals in the early 1990s. Also noteworthy is the growing significance of developing Asia in these cross-border M&As, both as sources of finance as well as destinations of investments. These cross-border M&A flows have deepened the economic integration of developing Asia with the global economy. |
| Date: | 11 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 109 : Pakistan: Finally Taking Ownership of the War against Terrorism? |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Soon after the momentous 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States, President G. W. Bush told the world, 'Every nation in every region now has a decision to make. Either you are with us [in the war on terror], or you are with the terrorists.' Pakistan decided to side with the United States. It remains debatable, though, whether Pakistan's decision was wholly voluntary or it was made under duress. Whatever the reasons, Pakistan has emerged to become a central figure in the war against terrorism. |
| Date: | 29 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 108 : Two Victories and a Defeat: India, Sri Lanka and the Minority Question |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Spontaneous street parties broke out, fireworks crackled in the air and strangers offered flowers to Sri Lankan soldiers to celebrate the news in Colombo - Asia's Idi Amin was no more! One of the Indian subcontinent's longest wars was at an end. The day before, street parties in New Delhi celebrated the victory of the Congress Party in the elections that marked the maturing of Indian democracy and the fact that the Tamil Nadu electorate had a sophisticated view of the situation in Sri Lanka. It is, hence, to be hoped that India, the regional superpower, will play an effective role to ensure peace with justice for the minorities in Sri Lanka. |
| Date: | 19 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 107 : Indian Elections 2009 – A Return to the Centre |
| Author/s: | Sanjaya Baru, Visiting Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The elections to the Lower House of the Indian Parliament, Lok Sabha, have thrown up a clear mandate in favour of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA), led by the Congress Party. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh becomes the second prime minister after Jawaharlal Nehru to secure a renewal of mandate after completing a full term in office. |
| Date: | 19 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 106 : Sri Lanka: What Next? |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka's war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) has reached its conclusion. The security forces may still take a few days in the last stage of mopping up of the war zone. The area is heavily mined, some 30,000 to 50,000 civilians are still suspected to be trapped in the war zone and there are last ditch attempts by the remaining Tigers to kill as many Sri Lankan soldiers as they can. |
| Date: | 30 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 105 : The Maldives: A Paradise in Peril? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Maldives is small and beautiful. Its picturesque scenic bounties lend the smallest member state of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation certain paradise-like qualities. Its people enjoy a reputation of being mild-mannered. However, despite these attributes, a combination of politics and geography is increasingly rendering the future of this tiny nation somewhat perilous. Its vulnerabilities to the vagaries of nature are well known. Much of the world is aware by now that, due to climatic changes, a slight rise in the sea level can spell disaster for the country, immersing much of its land space. However, less reported in the world is the fact that the Maldives' recent transition from authoritarian rule to democracy stands threatened if the parliamentary elections, due on 9 May 2009, throw up results that would effectively block governance. |
| Date: | 28 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 104 : Pakistan’s India Fixation can bring the Taliban into Power |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Several statements published in the News on 23 April 2009 illustrate the diverse perceptions of the real or imagined existentialist threats to Pakistan. In one key statement, United States- Secretary of State Hilary Clinton alleged that Pakistan has abdicated to the Taliban by agreeing to the imposition of Islamic law in a part of the country and that nuclear-armed Pakistan poses a 'moral threat' to world security. |
| Date: | 28 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 103 : Sino-Indian Naval Engagement |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Professor at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University |
| Abstract: | The Indian Naval Chief Admiral Sureesh Mehta's visit to China next week opens the door for the construction of an enduring maritime security dialogue between the two rising powers of Asia. |
| Date: | 16 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 102 : The South Asian Nuclear Genie: Out of the Bottle, It can be Useful |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | When the South Asian nuclear genie got out of the bottle in May 1998, with both India and Pakistan overtly conducting nuclear tests, there was much consternation, in particular, at the Conference on Disarmament. A permanent forum of the United Nations based in Geneva, the Conference on Disarmament is the only inter-governmental negotiating forum on disarmament. The author was then the Bangladesh Ambassador to this body. |
| Date: | 13 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 101 : Asia’s Economic Revival: Seeking Solutions beyond the Fiscal Stimulus |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As the recession in the United States (US) deepens, it is apparent that America’s traditional role as the world’s ‘consumer of last resort’ is now at stake. Consumer confidence in the US has plunged, owing to the ‘wealth effect’ following the burst of the assets bubble. The McKinsey Quarterly reports that the two forces which until recently turbocharged the US consumer spending – growing household debt and a falling savings rate – are now following a reversal trend. American consumers have accounted for more than three-quarters of its gross domestic product (GDP) growth since 2000 and for over one-third of global growth in private consumption since 1990. |
| Date: | 13 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 100 : The Bharatiya Janata Party’s Manifesto – Assessing its Electoral Implications |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini |
| Abstract: | The main opposition party , the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), released its manifesto on 3 April 2009. Outlining its goals, the manifesto states, “ The BJP is contesting the 2009 15 th Lok Sabha election on a m anifesto that commits the party to an agenda for change guided by three goals: good governance , development and security .” The last time the BJP came out with its own manifesto was in 1998. In the 1999 and 2004 elections, the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) brought out a common minimum programme. This paper discusses the key political and economic issues in the BJP manifesto . It then examines the i mplications of these issues on the BJP at the general elections. |
| Date: | 9 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 99 : Attack on Sri Lanka’s Cricket Team: Is Pakistan in Total Chaos and Anarchy? |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The unthinkable has happened! On 3 March 2009, 12 gunmen sprayed bullets and threw grenades and bombs with rocket launchers on the bus carrying the Sri Lankan cricket team which was touring Pakistan. The team was on its way to the Gaddafi Stadium in Lahore for the ongoing test match with Pakistan. Since the target was a fast-moving one, not all the deadly ammunition hit the target. Eight Sri Lankan players were injured, none critically, while five Pakistani security personnel died defending them. Two other Pakistanis are also reported killed in the attack. |
| Date: | 4 March 2009 |
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| Title: | 98 : Oscar-winning ‘Slumdog Millionaire’: A Boost for India’s Global Image? |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | Culture is difficult to define. This is more so in a large and heterogeneous country like India, where there is no common language and religion. There are sub-cultures within the country. Joseph Nye’s ‘soft power’ expression draws on a country’s cross-border cultural influences and is one enunciated with the American context in mind. Almost tautologically, soft power implies the existence of a relatively large country and the term is, therefore, now also being used for China and India. In the Indian case, most instances of practice of soft power are linked to language and literature (including Indians writing in English), music, dance, cuisine, fashion, entertainment and even sport, and there is no denying that this kind of cross-border influence has been increasing over time, with some trigger provided by the diaspora. |
| Date: | 27 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 97 : Sino-Indian Naval ‘Encounter’ in the Gulf of Aden: Mitigating Sino-Indian Maritime Rivalry |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | We might never get to piece together the full story behind the alleged first-ever stand-off between the Chinese and Indian navies in the Gulf of Aden last month. What we do know, however, is significant enough to reveal the profound changes in the military orientation of China and India, and the growing risks of their naval rivalry. |
| Date: | 6 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 96 : Sukhbir Badal as Punjab’s Deputy Chief Minister – Implications and Prospects for the Akalis |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini |
| Abstract: | Sukhbir Singh Badal, son of Punjab Chief Minister, Parkash Singh Badal, was sworn in as Deputy Chief Minister of Punjab on 21 January 2009. At 46, the former represents the modern generation of the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD), a Sikh-dominated party which is a constituent of the National Democratic Alliance, headed by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). He is an industrialist by profession and obtained a Master in Business Administration from the United States. Junior Badal has served as Minister of State for Industry during the Atal Bihari Vajpayee's government from 1998 to 1999 |
| Date: | 22 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 95 : Fate of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam: From Civil War to Guerilla Warfare? |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | The military debacle suffered by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) should not come as a huge surprise to any keen observers of the Sri Lankan developments. This is not the first time that the LTTE has been thrown out of its stronghold in Kilinochchi and is being pushed into the jungles of Mullaithivu. It happened 12 years ago under Chandrika Kumartunga's presidency and it also happened when the Indian Peace Keeping Forces (IPKF) had to take on the LTTE during 1987-89. The myth of the LTTE's military invincibility was consciously built up and nursed both by Tamil and Sinhalese vested interests as well as the media. |
| Date: | 19 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 94 : The Satyam Fiasco – Impact on Corporate India |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | Following the revelations of fraud and misdemeanour in the financial accounts of Satyam Computers, a public-listed company with over 50,000 employees and a market leader in the Indian information technology (IT) industry, the Indian Ministry of Company Affairs moved swiftly to replace the company’s Board of Directors. Several investigations, regulatory as well as criminal, have been launched by different state and central agencies, and the promoter, Mr R. Raju, has been arrested. Three professionals, Mr Kiran Karnik, former head of the National Association of Software and Service Companies, the IT industry association, Mr Deepak Parikh, head of HDFC Bank and Mr C. Achuthan, a former member of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), have been appointed as directors. The government has allowed this group to increase the number of directors further, as needed, up to 10 members in all. |
| Date: | 15 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 93 : The Return of Democracy in Bangladesh: Can the New Government Deliver on its Promises? |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | The Awami League (AL)-led grand alliance's 1 Held on 29 December 2008, the elections witnessed an impressive voter turnout of 87 percent. The grand alliance won 262 seats, followed by the BNP-led four-party alliance, with 32 seats, and the independents winning five seats. sweeping victory in the 9th parliamentary elections witnessed the return of democratic rule in Bangladesh after nearly two years of an army-backed caretaker government. The grand alliance was expected to win the polls. However, its landslide victory stunned many Bangladeshis. Former Prime Minister Ms Khaleda Zia's Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), once a mighty party, performed poorly in the national elections. With the return to democracy, there is now hope among the Bangladeshi people that the new government would fulfill their expectations. Ms Sheikh Hasina, the AL leader, who took the oath as Prime Minister on 6 January 2009, has a wonderful opportunity to determine the fortune of the nation. However, her government faces some key challenges in this regard. |
| Date: | 7 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 92 : India’s External Sector: Emergence of New Structural Trends |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released India’s latest balance of payment (BOP) estimates on 31 December 2008. The estimates are for the first six months of the financial year 2008-09 (that is, April-September 2008). It is evident that India’s BOP has undergone some significant structural changes in the current year. Most of these changes are attributable to the global financial crisis. If the changes deepen further during the rest of the year, then India’s BOP and external sector are likely to look much different from what they did in recent past. |
| Date: | 6 January 2009 |
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