| Title: | 91 : State Assembly election results in India: Dispelling the many commonly-held notions of Indian elections |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini |
| Abstract: | The recent assembly elections, dubbed by many as the ‘semifinals’ of the 2009 Lok Sabha polls, in five states – Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan – sprung many surprises. The Congress Party won three states and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) two. To many observers, the results came as a surprise, perhaps including the Congress Party, considering that the elections in Rajasthan and Delhi were held in the aftermath of the Mumbai terrorist attack. |
| Date: | 12 December 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 90 : The Fall of the Indian Rupee and the Unholy Trinity |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | Let us begin with an anecdote first – last year, Lehman Brothers predicted that the Indian rupee (INR) would appreciate to Rs36 per United States dollar (USD) by the end of 2008. Ironically, the former investment bank did not anticipate that it would not be around to witness the reversal of its predictions. This signifies the limitations of currency forecasting. |
| Date: | 10 December 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 89 : The Mumbai Mayhem: The Global War on Terror comes to India |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | India went through its worst terror attack in Mumbai last week. With unprecedented sweep and speed, the terrorists attacked 10 different locations and then settled down in three iconic buildings – the Taj Mahal Palace Hotel, Hotel Trident-Oberoi and the Nariman House (a Jewish Community House) – for wanton killings and pitched battles. The grit and doggedness with which the terrorists fought, and the range of arms, ammunition and explosives with which they were equipped, underlined months of careful preparations. Interrogations of the captured terrorist have revealed details of the terrorists’ entry into Mumbai through the sea route from Karachi. They had plans to blow up the Taj Hotel before possible escape. There is still confusion about the actual number of terrorists that came from outside as they came in batches. More than 10 have been shot dead and one arrested. Some of them checked into the Taj Hotel on 22 November 2008 and occupied Room No. 630, where not only additional explosives and arms were stored with the help of local associates (sleeping cells and underworld contacts) but a control room was also set up for the operations. They had complete and precise reconnaissance of the three major sites. India’s National Security Guard (NSG) commandos who launched the counter operations admitted that the terrorists appeared to be fully familiar with the hotel’s layout and they were as well trained and determined as the commandos. |
| Date: | 1 December 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 88 : National Treasury Management Agency Proposals: Implications for India’s Financial Policies |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) manages the borrowings of the Indian government. In almost all the years since independence, the government has not had a fiscal surplus, and it has had to borrow from the market to meet capital requirements for planned schemes. In fact, the argument among the financial managers of the government was that there was no harm in running up a fiscal deficit if the funds were used for capital expenditure. By the 1980s, the government was borrowing for its current expenditure as well, and the resultant growth of debt threatened to take the country into a financial crisis. The RBI has managed these substantial borrowings from the market. It has managed government borrowing in a manner that the targets are fulfilled, without affecting credit flows to the rest of the economy. The RBI decides on tranches of government borrowing at different times of the year, the periodicity and the coupon rate, and ‘persuades’ the state-owned banks to pick up the bonds, which are then counted as part of their statutory lending ratio. Apart from this, the RBI manages the borrowings of the state governments as well, taking into account their needs and their capacities. In fact, the RBI has been the debt and treasury manager of the government. |
| Date: | 27 November 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 87 : Global Economic Slowdown: Can Bangladesh Remain Resilient? |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is, no doubt, one of the world’s most powerful terrorist organisations. However, the myth of its military invincibility has been built and nurtured for a long time by a variety of vested interests, ranging from Tamil chauvinists all over the world; to even Sri Lankan politicians who saw their political fortunes in the perpetuation of the ethnic conflict. This myth was broken on at least four occasions: (i) in 1987, when the then-Sri Lankan President, J. R. Jayawardane, drove the Tamil militants, including the LTTE, to the verge in his so-called “fight to the finish”; (ii) in 1987-89, when the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) bottled up the LTTE in Vanni jungles and successfully carried out elections in the northeastern province; (iii) in 1995-96, when the then-Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, again cleared them from Jaffna and the eastern province, pushing them into the jungles; and (iv) now, when the Sri Lankan security forces have trapped them in their last two districts of Killinochi and Mallaithivu. |
| Date: | 25 November 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 86 : India’s Tamil Politics and the Sri Lankan Ethnic Conflict |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is, no doubt, one of the world’s most powerful terrorist organisations. However, the myth of its military invincibility has been built and nurtured for a long time by a variety of vested interests, ranging from Tamil chauvinists all over the world; to even Sri Lankan politicians who saw their political fortunes in the perpetuation of the ethnic conflict. This myth was broken on at least four occasions: (i) in 1987, when the then-Sri Lankan President, J. R. Jayawardane, drove the Tamil militants, including the LTTE, to the verge in his so-called “fight to the finish”; (ii) in 1987-89, when the Indian Peace Keeping Force (IPKF) bottled up the LTTE in Vanni jungles and successfully carried out elections in the northeastern province; (iii) in 1995-96, when the then-Sri Lankan President, Chandrika Kumaratunga, again cleared them from Jaffna and the eastern province, pushing them into the jungles; and (iv) now, when the Sri Lankan security forces have trapped them in their last two districts of Killinochi and Mallaithivu. |
| Date: | 6 November 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 85 : Maldives: Towards Open Polity |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Democracy is definitely on the move in South Asia. After Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan, it has turned corner in Maldives, a republic of 1,192 islands in the splendid Indian Ocean. Asia’s longest ruling autocrat, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, lost his Presidency in the elections held in October 2008 to his 30-year younger challenger, Mohamed Nasheed ‘Anni’, who suffered six years of prison for raising the democratic struggle against the Gayoom regime. Mohamed Nasheed ‘Anni’ had been declared a ‘Prisoner of Conscience’ by Amnesty International, a human rights organisation. |
| Date: | 31 October 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 84 : Return of the Two Begums: A ‘Hobson’s Choice’ for Bangladesh? |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | After an 18-month roller coaster ride, Sheikh Hasina and Khaleda Zia, the two former Prime Ministers and heads of the two major political parties in Bangladesh, the Bangladesh Awami League (BAL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) respectively, have returned to the country’s political scene. The caretaker government that took over on 11 January 2007, with a strong military backing and an overwhelming support from the masses, has finally given up its “minus-two formula” and other political reform packages, realising the ineluctable reality that it is ultimately these two Begums who hold the key to lead (or mislead) the nation. |
| Date: | 17 September 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 83 : Crisis in the United States Markets and Consequences for the Indian Markets – An Update |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The aftermath of the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy and the Merrill Lynch sale were somewhat muted in the New York Stock Exchange on 15 September 2008. The Dow Jones numbers did fall, but by a smaller amount than were initially expected. One possible explanation is the difference in expectations in the financial sector and the goods and services sector – the so called ‘financial street’ versus ‘main street’ firms. Oil prices have fallen to less than US$100 a barrel, and commodity prices, including copper, zinc and aluminum have stabilised. Steel demand is no longer rising, and there is a softening of iron ore demand and steel demand. The inflationary pressures caused by commodity price increases as well as oil prices are easing. Even food prices have stabilised globally. There are definite indications that there would be a slowdown of inflation in many countries. This is good news and several central banks are already contemplating easing up interest rates. China did so on 15 September 2008. The United States Fed was expected to reduce interest rates but it has kept the interest rates steady. Instead, the United States Fed has injected liquidity into banks.1 Therefore, along with the bad news in the financial markets, there is good news in the real economy scripts. It is not surprising that, the expectation that the damage will be contained to the financial markets, to those sectors in the real economy that are highly leveraged, and to the secondary markets in equities, would keep recessionary trends at bay. This could be an explanation to the fact that, while prices of commercial bank, investment bank and insurance company shares fell sharply, the prices of refinery shares and other export oriented companies remabded studies. |
| Date: | 17 September 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 82 : Crisis in the United States Markets and Consequences for the Indian Markets |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The decision of the United States Treasury not to guarantee the debts or the bail out of Lehman Brothers, one of the four major investment banks in the United States, has resulted in the institution going into bankruptcy yesterday. Merrill Lynch, whose share value has halved in the last few weeks, has merged with Bank of America, to ward off a similar fate. And next in line could well be AIG, another major international finance company. The total write down in the United States alone, since the credit crisis began, exceeds US$500 billion, with possibly as much more to come. |
| Date: | 16 September 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 81 : It is Getting More Difficult to do Business in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The World Bank released its latest 'doing business' rankings (2009) for 181 countries on 10 September 2008. The results reflect South Asia in a rather poor light. Not a single South Asian country figures among top business reformers for 2008. What is more worrisome is that, except for Sri Lanka, individual rankings of all economies from the region have declined in year 2009, compared to year 2008. |
| Date: | 15 September 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 80 : Elections in Pakistan – New President, Same Old Story |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | Until eight months ago, no one would have predicted that Mr Asif Ali Zardari would become a pivotal figure in Pakistani politics, much less the President of Pakistan. Better known as the controversial spouse of former Prime Minister, Ms Benazir Bhutto, Mr Zardari's name was tainted with allegations of corruption and linked to extortion and murder. He spent eleven years in jail though none of the charges were proven in court before being bailed out by then-President Pervez Musharraf through the National Reconciliation Ordinance. But he has overcome all odds to be elected Pakistan's President. |
| Date: | 11 September 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 79 : Musharraf’s Resignation – A Cause for Celebration and Concern for Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | On 18 August 2008, President Pervez Musharraf bowed to the inevitable and resigned from his post, two months short of the 10th anniversary of his coup d’état when he ousted Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. In his resignation speech, Musharraf insisted that he was not guilty of any of the charges being made against him and that he was acting in the best interest of Pakistan by stepping down to avoid a protracted power struggle and political uncertainty. Despite his protestations, the writing was on the wall following the 18 February elections when the people spoke loudly and clearly through the ballot box, shifting the power base away from Musharraf to the civilian parties led by Sharif and Asif Ali Zardari. The nail in the coffin was provided by Musharraf’s two indispensable backers – Pakistan’s military and the United States, both of which were clearly reassessing whether continued support of Musharraf might prove to be an unacceptable liability. Without their full support, Musharraf had no choice but to step down. Already, the provincial assemblies in Punjab, Sindh, the North-West Frontier Province and Baluchistan had tabled motions with overwhelming support demanding Musharraf seek a vote of confidence, and it was obvious that he would have failed. |
| Date: | 25 August 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 78 : Pakistan’s New Trade Policy Initiatives: Implications for India and Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi |
| Abstract: | In a significant policy shift, Pakistan has opened its doors to Indian investments and imports. As a result, India could become Pakistan's second largest trading partner after China at the end of this fiscal year.1 The landmark directional change could have longterm political implications for the two nuclear rivals and the South Asian region. |
| Date: | 31 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 77 : Will the United Progressive Alliance Victory in the Trust Vote Result in Faster Economic Reforms |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | As the curtains came down on an action-packed two-day session of the Indian Parliament with the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government surviving a close trust vote, the stock market erupted with joy. On 23 July 2008, the day after the trust vote, the benchmark Sensex at the Bombay Stock Exchange gained 838 points (almost six percent) in a single day's trade. The Nifty at the National Stock Exchange also responded in an equally robust manner. The signals emanating from the rally were loud and clear. Industry and business were ecstatic at the outcome of the trust vote. |
| Date: | 29 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 76 : Brief Conceptual Note: Development of the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The Government of India has announced a dedicated freight corridor network between Delhi and Mumbai as well as between Ludhiana to Kolkata. The Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) covers an overall length of 1,515 kilometres and passes through the states of Uttar Pradesh, the National Capital Region (NCR) of Delhi,3 Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and Maharashtra, with end terminals at Dadri in the NCR of Delhi and Jawaharlal Nehru Port near Mumbai. |
| Date: | 16 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 75 : Attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul: Time to Sober Up |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi |
| Abstract: | The 7 July 2008 suicide attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul left 41 people dead and some 140 injured, including an Indian military attach?® and three other Indians. Immediately after the attack, Kabul started pointing fingers at Islamabad and its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency. Though New Delhi has officially refrained from blaming Pakistan, many senior officials joined Kabul in accusing the ISI. Islamabad has categorically rejected the allegations. Although conventional wisdom suggests a strong possibility of ISI's complicity, if not outright Islamabad's, the ground realities may be somewhat different. |
| Date: | 15 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 74 : Recent Bomb Blasts in South Asia: Are the Terrorists on a Killing Spree Again? |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed1 |
| Abstract: | On 6 July 2008, a suicide bomber blew himself up near the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) in the Pakistani capital, Islamabad. He succeeded in taking out at least 21 lives, including those of 15 policemen. The mayhem the blasts caused was a shocking reminder of the fact that terrorist networks which had been dormant for some time are again back in the killing business. |
| Date: | 11 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 73 : The Walkout in India: No Longer ‘Left’ in the Lurch |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | With the Left [the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), the Communist Party of India, the Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party] planning to meet President Pratibha Devisingh Patil on 9 July 2008 and submit a letter withdrawing support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, the overall numbers game seems simple. There are two vacancies and the Lok Sabha now has 543 members. A simple majority requires 272 members. The UPA (the Congress Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam, the Nationalist Congress Party, Pattali Makkal Katchi, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Lok Janshakti Party, Kerala Congress, the Muslim League, Republican Party of India, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Peoples Democratic Party, Sikkim Democratic Front and three Independents) has 231 seats (the Congress Party has 153 seats). With the Left's 59 Members of Parliament having quit, the UPA has lost its majority. However, to all intents and purposes, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has provided support to the UPA through its 39 members, leaving UPA with only two members short of a majority. But it isn't that simple. There is dissidence within the SP too, and at least seven (if not 10) of its Members of Parliament may not end up supporting the government. Indeed, there are question marks about support from some of the UPA constituents too. Though these are political parties with single-digit Members of Parliament (one or two), even one Member of Parliament matters. Therefore, the Congress Party cannot be sure about the numbers yet and will try to get support from other political parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh), Janata Dal Secular (Deve Gowda), Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Trinamool Congress, National Conference, Shiromani Akali Dal and Independents. |
| Date: | 9 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 72 : India’s Trade Deficit: Increasing Fast but Still Manageable |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India’s trade deficit, which reflects the excess of its merchandise imports over exports, has reached 7.7 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). According to the Balance of Payments (BOP) statistics for the year 2007-08 recently released by the Reserve Bank of India, the deficit has increased from US$63.2 billion in 2006-07 to US$90.1 billion in 2007- 08. This increase of almost US$27 billion has resulted in the deficit swelling from 6.9 percent of GDP in 2006-07 to 7.7 percent in 2007-08. |
| Date: | 7 July 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 71 : The Third Oil Shock: The Path Forward for Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | Oil is now traded at nearly US$140 a barrel.1 The real price of oil is already at an all-time high.2 Goldman Sachs, the United States-based investment bank, which correctly predicted three years ago that the oil prices would exceed US$100, has recently forecasted that US$200 a barrel could be a reality in the not-too-distant future.3 A 170 percent price hike4 over a three-year period (from US$47 a barrel in May 2005 to US$127 May 2008) and, more importantly, a relentless rise in fuel prices has resulted in the current scenario being termed “the third oil shock”.5 This is certainly true from the perspective of the least developed countries. The term was, in fact, used by Gordon Brown, the British Prime Minster, who, in a recent article, stated that the global economy is facing the “third great oil shock” of recent decades.6 The Economist has dubbed the phenomenon a “slow-motion oil shock”. Worse still, Joseph Stiglitz, economics Nobel laureate, is concerned that oil is underpriced relative to the cost of carbon emissions.7 Apparently, the price of the black gold will continue to swell until it finds equilibrium where alternative energy becomes viable. |
| Date: | 10 June 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 70 : Karnataka State Assembly Elections: Implications for the UPA Government |
| Author/s: | E. Sridharan |
| Abstract: | The Karnataka state assembly elections were held in May 2008. The principal opposition party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which led the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) (the national coalition government) from 1999 to 2004, won to form its first government in a southern state. The result is important because it has broad implications for the political prospects of the ruling Congress Party-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition government in the general elections due by May 2009. In this brief, the Karnataka elections will be analysed at two levels: first, the elections themselves at the state level and, second, their possible implications for the UPA at the national elections. |
| Date: | 10 June 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 69 : Modifications of the External Commercial Borrowings Policy: Implications for Overseas Investments |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | Overseas borrowing rules for firms are governed by policy directives from the Government of India. The External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) policy is regularly reviewed by the Government of India in consultation with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to keep it aligned with evolving macroeconomic situation and changing market conditions. On 29 May 20081, there has been a partial modification of the ECB policy |
| Date: | 5 June 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 68 : Indian Management Education: Regulatory Structure is still Confused |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | In recommendations submitted in December 2007, the National Knowledge Commission (NKC) has recommended that the All India Council for Technical Education (AICTE) should be scrapped and replaced by an Independent Regulatory Authority for Higher Education (IRAHE). These aren't recommendations specific to the AICTE or management education, but general and are based on arguments about multiplicity, high entry barriers and lack of independence in regulation. However, if there is an IRAHE, roles of the University Grants Commission (UGC) and AICTE, and some other higher education councils, will change. Reacting to the NKC recommendations, Human Resource Development (HRD) Ministry has set up a 22-member committee chaired by Professor Yashpal to examine the future of both the AICTE and the UGC. Hence, nothing is going to change in a hurry. And lest one forgets, in 2003, there was a U.R. Rao Committee that went into the working of the AICTE. But this report was never made public. |
| Date: | 27 May 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 67 : India-Pakistan Composite Dialogue: Towards A “Grand Reconciliation”? |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | The message emanating from Islamabad after two days (20 and 21 May 2008) of meeting between Foreign Ministers and Foreign Secretaries of India and Pakistan to review the ‘composite dialogue’ and the ‘peace process’ between the two adversarial South Asian neighbours appears to be reassuring, at least on the face of it. Pakistan’s Foreign Minister, Makhdoom Shah Mehmood Qureshi, assured that a “grand reconciliation in resolving all outstanding issues” was Pakistan’s promise, adding that “we are ready to solve all issues with self-respect and dignity for peace, stability and the development of the region”. Endorsing the sentiments of his hosts, the Indian Foreign Minister, Pranab Mukherji, said, “I found a strong willingness and desire on Pakistani side towards full normalisation of relations… Secure, stable and prosperous India and Pakistan are in our mutual interest and good for our relations”. |
| Date: | 26 May 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 66 : The Unravelling of Coalition Politics in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | The recent breakdown of talks between the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML (N)] and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) on the re-instatement of the judiciary and the withdrawal of federal ministers by the PML (N) from the ruling coalition have threatened to derail coalition politics in Pakistan and deal another body blow to the process of democratisation in the country. At the heart of this matter is the reinstatement of judges of the Supreme Court who were deposed by President Musharraf under emergency rule and the Provisional Constitutional Order of 3 November 2007. Both the PML (N) and the PPP agreed in the Bhurban declaration of 9 March 2008 that the judges would be reinstated through a resolution within 30 days of the formation of the government. |
| Date: | 16 May 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 65 : India’s Annual Policy Statement for FY2008-09: Achieving a ‘Neither Tight, Nor Liberal’ Monetary Policy |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) announced its Annual Policy Statement for FY2008-09 on 29 April 2008. Given the high headline inflation in India, many had felt that the RBI would tighten monetary policy by increasing interest rates. It was, therefore, surprising to note that all the key policy rates (that is, bank rate, repo rate and reverse repo rate) were kept unchanged. Only the cash reserve ratio (CRR) has been increased for arresting growth in liquidity. |
| Date: | 1 May 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 64 : Nepal Constituent Assembly Elections: The Dawn of a New Era? |
| Author/s: | Nishchal N. Pandey |
| Abstract: | The historic elections for a Constituent Assembly in Nepal are finally over, with 60 percent voter turnout but a fair amount of violence. Nepalese voted for the first time in nine years on 10 April 2008 to choose a 601-member special Assembly. There were 74 political parties, including one with all women candidates and another formed by a former Japanese national. There were 17.5 million voters and over 80,000 observers, alongside high-profile individuals such as former United States President, Jimmy Carter, and the son of former Japanese Prime Minister, Ryutaro Hashimoto. The new Assembly is expected to draft a new Constitution for the country and abolish the Hindu monarchy. The monarchy has ruled the complex Nepali state, comprising 22 different principalities of various ethnic groups, for 239 years. |
| Date: | 18 April 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 63 : Bhutan: Marching Towards Democracy |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | The year 2008 may go down in the history of South Asia as the year of democratic institutionalisation and electoral processes. After Pakistan’s elections on 18 February, Bhutan followed on 24 March and Nepal is all set to hold its first ever Constituent Assembly polls on 10 April. All these elections are a manifestation of the strong upsurge for democracy against the erstwhile autocratic governance in these countries. The case of Bhutan has, however, been different as the Bhutanese elections were cast in a unique political context. Unlike the situation in Nepal and Pakistan, the elections were not precipitated by any grassroots upsurge for political change and representative governance. The Bhutanese people were happy to be governed by their traditional monarchy whose criteria for development was defined by the unique concept of “Gross National Happiness”, to contrast it with “Gross National Product”, felt and enjoyed, not only materially but also “spiritually”, by its people. Bhutan’s call for democracy was a top-down gift to his people by the King, Jigme Singhye Wangchuk, much against the unwillingness and initial resistance by his ministers and associates as well as his subjects. Compare this with the Nepal King in Bhutan’s close proximity, who was hell bent on going to any length in retaining his hold over power. He even resorted to direct rule under the pretext of dealing with the 10-year old Maoist insurgency. Also contrast the Bhutan King’s initiative with the military regimes in Pakistan and Myanmar. While the former succumbed to the idea of democratic elections under severe domestic and international pressures, the latter has defied the international community, by and large, and suppressed the protests led by the monks on the question of accommodating democratic aspirations of the people. |
| Date: | 3 April 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 62 : Post-election Pakistan: Is there Hope or Despair for the People? |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi |
| Abstract: | The brief euphoria that followed the 18 February 2008 polls in Pakistan seems to have died down and the harsh realities of an immature polity are beginning to surface. Despite the decision of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) to form the government, as well as President Pervez Musharraf's promise to work with the new government, the prophecies of an Islamist takeover and/or Pakistan's disintegration have become a recurrent theme. |
| Date: | 27 March 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 61 : Yousaf Raza Gilani: Pakistan’s New Prime Minister |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Yousaf Raza Gilani (complete formal name: Makdoom Syed Yousaf Raza Gilani), was elected to the Pakistan National Assembly on 18 February 2008 on a ticket of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) of Benazir Bhutto. After several weeks of suspense and speculation, during which intense consultations and negotiations within the PPP and between the PPP and its coalition partners, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Awami National Party (ANP), the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam-F and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) took place, Gilani was nominated on 22 March 2008 as the PPP candidate for the pivotal post of prime minister. On 24 March 2008, he was elected Prime Minister of Pakistan. He secured votes 264 votes of the newly elected legislators while his rival and leader of the opposition, Chaudhri Pervaiz Elahi, of the Pakistan Muslim League-Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q), received only 42 votes. He is to be sworn in as prime minister on 25 March 2008 by President Pervez Musharraf. |
| Date: | 25 March 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 60 : The Third Tibetan Uprising: India’s Response |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Tibet remains a complex issue in India’s relations with China. It has a historical context, a sensitive humanitarian dimension and contemporary political imperatives. All these impinge on the unresolved, conflict-prone border issue between the two Asian giants. Keeping this in mind, India has been diplomatically correct and politically cautious in responding to the 2008 Tibetan uprising. This uprising has gone much beyond the arson and rioting in the Tibetan capital Lhasa, affecting not only other parts of Tibet but also other regions of China such as Gansu, Qinghai and Sichuan. In its scale, the uprising is comparable to the one in 1959 which led to the Dalai Lama’s flight and it is much bigger than in 1988 which was strongly suppressed by Hu Jintao, who then was in charge of Tibetan affairs. |
| Date: | 24 March 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 59 : The Indian Budget 2008-09: An Assessment |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The budget proposals presented by the Indian Finance Minister in Parliament on 29 February have provided a number of concessions for the middle class and the farmers. It was a well thought out document and there has been an attempt to control inflation and, at the same time, stimulate growth. |
| Date: | 3 March 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 58 : India’s Economic Survey 2007-08: Impressive Growth and a Promising Future |
| Author/s: | K. V. Ramaswamy |
| Abstract: | On 28 February 2008, India’s Finance Minister, Mr P. Chidambaram, released the Economic Survey 2007-08, the annual state of the economy report. This year’s report is all the more interesting as one could examine India’s economic performance in the 10th Five-Year Plan (2002-07) and sets the stage for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2008-2012). |
| Date: | 29 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 57 : Nepal: Political Uncertainties and Economic Challenges |
| Author/s: | Malminderjit Singh1 |
| Abstract: | Nepal, the last surviving South Asian monarchy, is hoping for a fresh start as it attempts to establish a republic. This change to the constitution by the interim legislature in December 2007, however, has to be endorsed during the Constituent Assembly elections proposed for April 2008. Nevertheless, there is a shadow of doubt over the probability of these elections as they have been postponed twice before in 2007. |
| Date: | 29 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 56 : Developing India-Malaysia Relations – Managing Issues Of The Diaspora |
| Author/s: | Malminderjit Singh |
| Abstract: | The latest round of demonstrations by Malaysian Indians in Kuala Lumpur on 16 February 2008 dealt a huge blow to the country which had anticipated the end of domestic instability. In fact, the reverberations of the recent racial tensions in Malaysia could be felt all the way to New Delhi. India, who has acted quickly to repair any damages in its bilateral relations with Malaysia thus far, would be concerned about the implications of the latest round of Malaysian Indian discontent on ties with its Southeast Asian partner. |
| Date: | 27 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 55 : The Pakistan Elections: A Political Analysis |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | After nine years of military and quasi-military rule, which included a contrived and rigged election in 2002, Pakistanis finally went to the polls on 18 February 2008. Notwithstanding fear of terrorist attacks at the election booths, over 46 percent of eligible voters cast their vote. The environment was most explosive: manifest rigging would have set in motion mass protests. The large number of foreign observers and Pakistani volunteers who monitored the election agreed that the elections were, by and large, free and fair. The people voted clearly for change. |
| Date: | 22 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 54 : Russian Premier Viktor Zubkov in India: Reinvigorating Relations |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Within three months of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's state visit to Russia, his Russian counterpart, Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov, visited New Delhi for three days from 12 to 14 February 2008. The purpose was to deepen and expand multifaceted bilateral cooperation between the two countries, particularly in the areas of defence, energy and trade. |
| Date: | 18 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 53 : Economic Slowdown in the United States: Importance of Domestic Market Leverage in South Asia |
| Author/s: | K. V. Ramaswamy |
| Abstract: | Is the United States economy on the verge or already in a recession? How much of this United States economic troubles will spill over and impact the global economy? These are still much debated questions among economists and key policy makers. A recession, let us recall, is typically defined as a sustained period (two or more quarters) of negative growth in real gross domestic product (GDP). In the last quarter of 2007, the United States' real GDP grew by only 0.6 percent. Therefore the jury is still out as far as the realisation of actual recession. The central bank chiefs and finance ministers of the group of seven (G-7) industrialised countries in their recent meeting at Tokyo, Japan, have reportedly warned that the global economy could continue to slow down. They, however, seem to have endorsed the view of Mr Henry M. Paulson, the United States Treasury Secretary, by suggesting that the United States was likely to avoid recession. Closer home, the survey of American economists by the Wall Street Journal has raised their odds of the United States falling into recession to 49 percent in February 2008 as against 40 percent in the January 2008 survey. The suggested bottom line is an emerging scenario of growth slowdown in the United States and that will in turn pull down the global growth prospects. |
| Date: | 13 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 52 : Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in Arunachal Pradesh: Buttressing the Claims |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | In territorial disputes, it is said that possession is the third fourth of the claim. Dr Manmohan Singh's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, where India's claims are disputed by China, within two weeks of his state visit to China was obviously a move to reinforce and reassert that the area belongs to India. |
| Date: | 13 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 51 : Urban Transport in India: Beyond the “Nano” |
| Author/s: | Shreekant Gupta |
| Abstract: | A positive fallout of the unveiling of the Nano, a low-cost (US$2,500) car by Tata Motors at Delhi last month (and slated to go into production later this year), is that it has re-ignited the debate about urban transport in India. Proponents of motorisation have argued that the advent of an inexpensive car will usher in a transport revolution in the country while critics have warned of impending chaos on the roads and of adverse impacts on air quality, among other things. Further, several other auto manufacturers have also unveiled plans to introduce budget cars in the Indian market. Given that the penetration of cars in India is about seven per 1,000 people (as compared to 550 per 1,000 in Germany, for example), the potential size of the market is indeed enormous in a country of over a billion people. A larger issue, however, that the impending advent of low-cost automobiles has raised, is the direction in which urban transport in India is headed. This brief focuses on the current state and likely future of urban transport in the country and steps required to make it sustainable. |
| Date: | 6 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 50 : Urban Transport in India: The “Nano” Effect |
| Author/s: | Shreekant Gupta |
| Abstract: | Nano, the new low cost car unveiled by Tata Motors at the Auto India Expo at Delhi last month, has set the country abuzz. There has been considerable hype surrounding the car. Some commentators have declared the advent of this car as a transportation revolution, an event as significant as the launch of the Model T by Henry Ford. Others have argued the Nano will democratise car ownership, and even a happening that may upturn the brahminical order in the country. On the technology front, the Nano certainly epitomises India’s progress in innovation, packed as it is with several firsts. Tata Motors has filed over 34 patents for the car. In particular, a great deal of innovation has gone into the drive train and its placement and half the patents filed pertain to the drive train alone. One of the key patents is the introduction of a balancer shaft to iron out the vibrations typical for a twin-cylinder engine. According to the company, the Nano also meets all emission and safety norms, including (frontal) crash test norms in India. Its fuel efficiency is expected to be in the range of 18-20 kilometres per litre. |
| Date: | 5 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 49 : Forthcoming Pakistan Elections: A Profile on Pro-Musharraf Political Parties |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The assassination of Ms Benazir Bhutto on 27 December 2007 in Rawalpindi plunged Pakistan, already rocked by months of agitations by liberal-secular as well as Islamic fundamentalist opponents of the government of President Pervez Musharraf, deeper into anarchy and chaos, creating for a few days, a most critical situation. Nationwide armed clashes between the followers of Ms Bhutto and the security forces were reported. Particularly in her home province of Sindh, a virtual rebellion seemed to be taking shape but the government managed to bring the situation under control through the threat of 'shooting on sight'. However, the situation remains volatile. |
| Date: | 5 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 48 : Analysing India’s Credit Policy: Keeping An Eye on Inflation and the Elections |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) last week announced that it would keep interest rates unchanged, and chose to adopt a wait and watch policy. Markets and commentators in India had expected a reduction in interest rates, following the United States Federal Bank's decision to reduce rates in two tranches by 1.25 percent. |
| Date: | 4 February 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 47 : The 21st Century – Will it Belong to Asia? |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The great historian Eric Hobsbawm described the 20th century as the century of extremes. Burgeoning industrialisation, scientific breakthroughs in the fight against disease and the concomitant rising rates of human survival and economic growth, the end of colonial domination, and the spread of democracy were some of the outstanding achievements of that period. |
| Date: | 25 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 46 : Sino-Indian Trade Relations: Understanding the Bilateral and Regional Implications |
| Author/s: | Deep K Datta-Ray |
| Abstract: | When Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh spoke in Beijing, during his visit from 13 – 15 January 2008, of a ‘historic need’ for India and China to work together, he was looking beyond the border dispute that has plagued relations for half a century to freeing millions of the world’s poorest from disease and economic deprivation. Paradoxically, this goal, and not any misplaced nationalistic or protectionist sentiment, forced him to decline Chinese requests for a free trade agreement (FTA). |
| Date: | 22 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 45 : India and China: Towards Slow and Steady Cooperation |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Indian Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh’s visit to China from 13 – 15 January 2008 was a step in the direction of keeping the momentum of building incremental and evolutionary cooperation between the Asian giants. No breakthroughs were expected and none happened. There was no bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) which China, sitting on a comfortable and increasing trade surplus of about US$10 billion, was keen on. Nor was there any conclusion of a “Framework Agreement” on the resolution of boundary issue that India has been looking forward to. The Chinese side was not forthcoming on endorsing the Indo-United States Civil Nuclear Cooperation, nor in assuring India that its request to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in the context of Indo-United States nuclear deal will be supported by China. |
| Date: | 18 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 44 : The Appreciating Rupee and India’s Exports: Should Policy Makers Worry? |
| Author/s: | K. V. Ramaswamy |
| Abstract: | Indian currency will sink if allowed to float used to be the answer one would often get during classroom discussions in the 1980s on flexible and fixed exchange rates. However, with the remarkable Indian economic performance in the last few years, the Indian rupee has attained respectability and suggests strong underlying fundamentals. The current rupee price of the United States dollar stands at Rs39.29 per dollar (as on 10 January 2008) as against Rs44.53 exactly a year ago, indicating a 12 percent appreciation. This is appreciation of nominal exchange rate and one should perhaps look at real effective exchange rates (REER) that take into account relative price movement in trading partners. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) estimates REER (based on 36-currency trade based weights) with different base years. Without going into details, it is suffice to note that REER, either based on five currencies or a 36-currency basket, has also appreciated since September 2006. |
| Date: | 18 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 43 : One Year in Office: An Assessment of Bangladesh’s Caretaker Government |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | In the face of a political crisis, a caretaker government took over control in Bangladesh on 12 January 2007, giving the people the hope of a new dawn. After one year, however, instead of celebrations, Dr Fakhruddin Ahmed-led interim cabinet has found itself in the midst of a series of problems, if not crises. Just before the first anniversary of the government, half of its advisers had to leave office due to poor performance and public dissatisfaction. The skyrocketing of prices of essentials has also affected the popularity of the government. The common people in Bangladesh now think that the country's economic outlook and political prospects are no better, if not worse, than those during the so-called democratic governments. |
| Date: | 15 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 42 : The Sub-prime Crisis – Likely Consequences for the Indian Economy |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | In the last few weeks, the Prime Minister of India, the Finance Minister as well as the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Mr Montek Singh Ahluwalia, have been expressing anxiety over the impact of the sub-prime crisis in the United States on growth in India. In fact, Mr Ahluwalia has said that this is more worrying than the rise in energy prices. It is only the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) who has not expressed similar views, focusing his concern more on growing capital flows and the impact on the currency. |
| Date: | 10 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 41 : Ms Benazir Bhutto’s Will |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | I was badly shaken by the news of the brutal assassination of Ms Ben azir Bhutto. It brought back sad memories of the way Zulfikar Ali Bh utto and his descendents have had to pay in blood for coming into conflict with the establishm ent. In the several interviews that followed on Singapore television, I was constantly asked what implications this would have for democracy and the survival of Pakistan. My response was that, in her death, she may have created a greater basis for the return of civilian rule and democracy. |
| Date: | 7 January 2008 |
| Read More |
| Title: | 40 : Benazir Bhutto (1953-2007) Assassinated – Pakistan in Turmoil |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The general elections in Pakistan, scheduled for 8 January 2008, have been postponed till 18 February 2008. This decision was taken by the Pakistan Election Commission in the wake of the assassination of twice prime minister of Pakistan and leader of the Pakistan People's Party (Parliamentarian) [PPP (P)], Benazir Bhutto. Rioting broke out in many parts of Pakistan, but especially in the province of Sindh to which Ms Bhutto and her family belong. The destruction of government buildings and infrastructure has been staggering. The offices of the Election Commission, polling booths, the voters' list, police stations, petrol pumps, railway stations and railway carriages, trucks and private cars have been torched by angry mobs. Sindh has been practically burning. The government deployed the military in Sindh with orders to shoot on sight. Pakistan could be on the brink of a civil war. |
| Date: | 4 January 2008 |
| Read More |
Load more