| Title: | 310 : Testing the Air: China’s Defence-Move |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The steady procession of Chinese ‘pressure tactics’ to push its claims on disputed territories is strengthening the hands of new leadership in Beijing. The leadership’s assertiveness is evident in recent announcements regarding China’s controversial new air defence zone. This initiative suggests that President Xi Jinping supports an ‘aggressive Chinese display of force’ to assert his country’s claims in its territorial disputes. On 23 November 2013, China declared the creation of an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the East China Sea, which has magnified concerns among neighbours and added apprehensions regarding the Chinese approach towards territorial and maritime disputes. Undoubtedly, such moves from Beijing are fuelling insecurity, and escalating political tensions in the Asia-Pacific region. |
| Date: | 12 December 2013 |
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| Title: | 309 : India at Bali: Saving Itself and the WTO |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Ninth WTO Ministerial at Bali is being widely proclaimed a shot in the arm for the ailing World Trade Organization and the multilateral rule-based trade system. It might also mark a turning point in the history of India’s trade negotiations. For the first time in several years, India would be coming back from the WTO without the ‘distinction’ of having been a spoiler in the trade talks. |
| Date: | 9 December 2013 |
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| Title: | 308 : India woos its Northeast: Development and Diplomacy Factors |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Assistant at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s President Pranab Mukherjee made a three-day visit to Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland in the country’s Northeast region. In Arunachal Pradesh he attended the convocation ceremony at the Rajiv Gandhi University, and addressed the Legislative Assembly. He graced the celebration of the 50th anniversary of Nagaland’s statehood and inaugurated the 10-day long Hornbill Festival. The visit is significant in three aspects, re-asserting India’s sovereignty over Arunachal Pradesh, reiterating Northeast’s centrality to India’s ‘Look-East’ Policy, and giving credence to the idea that development as a way of securitising border areas is a policy that New Delhi is seriously mulling over. |
| Date: | 6 December 2013 |
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| Title: | 307 : Reining in the Military in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Three recent developments in Pakistan have taken its evolving political order forward. They will concentrate executive authority in the hands of the elected representatives of the people rather than dispersing it around in the hands of various competing institutions that are vying to establish their own control over the political system. In addition to the revival of the civilian political establishment, this process has been facilitated by two other forces – the street and the press. This paper provides an overview of these developments. |
| Date: | 6 December 2013 |
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| Title: | 306 : Delhi Elections in India: Middle Class Anger and New Political Equations |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Delhi, when compared to other Indian states, might be insignificant in its size. After all the state of Delhi (which was till recently a Union Territory), shorn of the parts of Uttar Pradesh and Haryana that make up the sprawling National Capital region, is only 1,500 square miles and has 70 Assembly seats and 7 seats in the national Parliament. But by virtue of being India's capital, elections in Delhi command much more attention than those in the Indian states that are far larger. Delhi has 11.5 million registered voters; the whole of Australia has only 14 million. |
| Date: | 6 December 2013 |
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| Title: | 305 : Rajasthan elections in India : A Mix Of Royality and Caste Equations |
| Author/s: | Ronjoy Sen |
| Abstract: | If anti -incumbency has shown a decline in some Indian states, in others it still remains a persistent trend. Rajasthan, which went to the polls on 1 December 2013, is one of them. For the past two decades the incumbent government has been voted out in every election. The current Congress government, led by Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot, faces an uphill task in bucking this trend. The voter turnout, according to latest figures, was nearly 73 per cent which was up significantly from 66 per cent in the last elections held in 2008. |
| Date: | 3 December 2013 |
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| Title: | 304 : Bangladesh: Unfolding Drama of Deadly Politics |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 25 November the Chief Election Commissioner of Bangladesh, Kazi Rakibuddin Ahmad, announced the election schedule for the nation’s 10th Parliament. The polls, he stated, are to be held on 5 January 2014. He urged calm on both contending sides, the Awami League (AL)-led government of Sheikh Hasina and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led opposition of Khaleda Zia. The bitterness of their rivalry has been legendary. The politicians’ disregard for his appeal was instantaneous. The BNP which had earlier warned that it would react to such an announcement with a siege of the capital Dhaka was true to its word. So was the government which had vowed to put down any unruly behaviour with an iron hand. The unsurprising result was a spiralling violence with no end to it in sight. In this, the religious right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami was on hand, fighting with its back to the wall as many of its leaders are in condemned cells, awaiting execution ordered by the war-crimes trial court. |
| Date: | 28 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 303 : Madhya Pradesh State Polls in India: ‘Anti-Incumbency’ No Longer Applies? |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen is Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS, Robin Jeffrey is Visiting Research Professor at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Elections in Madhya Pradesh (MP), one of the five Indian states going to the polls in November and December 2013, test conventional wisdom about Indian state elections – that governments seldom get re-elected. “The anti-incumbency factor” has been a commonplace of Indian electoral analysis for thirty years. But over the past few years, incumbents with healthy records in office are winning re-election. |
| Date: | 27 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 302 : Focus on Policies and Personalities in Mizoram Assembly Elections 2013 |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Assistant at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Even as the Congress faces strong anti-incumbency factors in Rajasthan and Delhi and an uphill climb in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh states in India, retaining Mizoram has become a matter of greater importance to the party. The results of the assembly elections to be held in these five states in November and December 2013 will be crucial in determining the tone of the General Election that will follow a few months later. |
| Date: | 15 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 301 : Pakistan’s New Taliban Challenge |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has a new line-up of leaders in place, filling the gap created by the killing of the old leadership in an American drone attack. This shift will have major consequences for Pakistan, including in regard to the difficulties with the peace process that has been sanctioned by an All Parties Conference and is being pursued by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif. The TTP leadership change is taking place when the Pakistan Army is about to induct a new chief who will replace General Ashfaq Kayani and as the pace of American withdrawal from Afghanistan picks up. This paper examines the significance of a new group taking over the command of the TTP. |
| Date: | 15 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 300 : Elections in Chhattisgarh: Maoists, Turnout, NOTA and Clues for India |
| Author/s: | Robin Jeffrey is Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS, Ronojoy Sen is Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | A crucial Indian election season began on 11 November 2013 with the first round of polling in a state where rural insurgency has claimed hundreds of lives in the past ten years and where “Maoist” groups control large, remote tracts. |
| Date: | 15 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 299 : Northeast India and Southeast Asia: Creating Tourism Synergy |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Assistant at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In the last one year several tourism officials from Assam and the other Northeast states of India have benefitted from the Singapore Cooperation Programme, in capacity building, and received training that involves a range of tourism management skills. This highlights the range of opportunities that exist for synergy between Singapore and other Southeast Asian countries, on one side, and Northeast India, on the other. While the obvious complementary aspect is provided by tourists from Southeast Asia as consumers looking for new destinations which Northeast India provides, the development of such cooperation mechanisms opens new opportunities that can have significant impact for the region as a whole. Indeed, lessons can be drawn from Southeast Asian nations like Thailand and Singapore that have achieved a high measure of success in developing their tourism industry. |
| Date: | 11 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 298 : Dilemma of Drones: Peace Prospects in Pieces |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent US Drone attack that made bull’s eye and killed the target, the Taliban chief in Pakistan, Hakimullah Mehsud, also caused a huge collateral damage. An unintended consequence was a return to the doldrums of the tricky and unstable US-Pakistan relations, which was slowly but surely being restored by painstaking efforts on the parts of both Washington and Islamabad. The newly-elected Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif had travelled to the United States, and following his interaction with the American leadership, a thaw in the relations between the two sides was discernible. Sharif had just obtained the assurances of a US$ 6.6 billion bail-out from the International Monetary Fund for his country’s stalled economy. The US also committed itself to disburse US$ 300 million to Pakistani hands, as a tranche of the US$ 1.6 billion in military assistance promised but held back by the Congress. |
| Date: | 6 November 2013 |
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| Title: | 297 : US Government Shutdown and the South Asian Diaspora |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | At first sight it may seem a bit of a stretch to link the United States Government’s shutdown with the size of the South Asian Diaspora in America. But the connection between the two becomes clear once it is noted that the right-wing of the Republican Party has taken a long step towards exhibiting its distaste for immigration. It was when the country was more receptive to receiving foreigners that the South Asians built large communities in various parts of United States. The South Asians benefitted particularly from this openness since they brought into America the skills that the “natives” did not have in the needed quantity. There are now about 6-8 million people of South Asian origin living in North America. Since most of the South Asian immigrants are highly qualified and are working in the occupations that pay well, their per capita income is 20 per cent higher than the overall American average – or US$ 60,000. The American income per head is slightly more than US$ 50,000. In other words the total South Asia Diaspora income in America is about US$ 400 billion. This is equivalent to about one-fifth of the total national income of the sub-continent. With such high incomes the Diaspora has begun to contribute significantly to the development of the countries they left behind when they moved to America. |
| Date: | 14 October 2013 |
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| Title: | 296 : Pakistan: Politics of Promises, Perils and Progress |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Mian Nawaz Sharif was swept into power in May 2013 on a mandate that contained a slew of promises. These included addressing in all seriousness the problems of terrorism, economy, energy and relations with key relevant powers. It was no surprise that Nawaz, and his Pakistan Muslim League (PML) should have won the polls in a canter because of the rampant corruption and woeful mismanagement of governance during the preceding rule of the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). The fact that the transition was peaceful, democratic and smooth – the first-time-ever a civilian government transferring power to another – signalled the dawning of a new and positive era in Pakistan’s politics. |
| Date: | 14 October 2013 |
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| Title: | 295 : A New Strategy to Revive India’s Economic Growth |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The author joins the debate on what has caused the Indian economy to stumble over the last few months and what can the policy makers do to revive growth in a way that it can be sustained over time. It can be argued that the economy’s wounds are self-inflicted. In the author’s view, India’s policy makers – not just those who currently hold the reins of power but also those who come after them – must bring about a fundamental change in the Indian economic strategy. |
| Date: | 4 September 2013 |
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| Title: | 294 : Pakistan’s Water Woes |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Consultant at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | While energy shortages, economic stagnation, terrorism, and religious intolerance remain in the spotlight – water shortages, warns the South Asia scholar Anatol Lieven, “present the greatest future threat to the viability of Pakistan as a state and a society”.2 Regrettably, the Pakistani discourse on the subject remains in a state of delusion and thus misdirected. |
| Date: | 20 August 2013 |
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| Title: | 293 : China’s ‘Look-West’ Policy: A New Link with Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | For a number of reasons, the structure as well as the future of the Asian economy has begun to be transformed. Some of the old assumptions no longer hold. The West’s rapid demographic transition is changing the pattern of demand which would mean that exports to the old industrialised countries will no longer be the main driver of Asia’s economic progress. There are other developments taking place that will also profoundly affect Asia’s future. One of them, examined in this paper, is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor which is at the centre of what can be called China’s ‘Look-West’ Policy. |
| Date: | 20 August 2013 |
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| Title: | 292 : Pakistan Elects a New President |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | With the election, on 30 July 2013, of Mamnoon Hussain as Pakistan's next President, the country has completed the formal aspects of the transition to a democratic order. It has taken the country almost 66 years to reach this stage. As laid down in the Constitution of 1973, full executive authority is now in the hands of the prime minister who is responsible to the elected national assembly and will not hold power at the pleasure of the president. With the transition now complete, will the third-time Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, succeed in pulling the country out of the deep abyss into which it has fallen? Only time will provide a full answer to this question. |
| Date: | 2 August 2013 |
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| Title: | 291 : Afghan Peace Talks and the Changing Character of Taliban Insurgency |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The June 2013 opening of a Taliban office in Doha raised fresh hopes of a negotiated settlement of the Afghan imbroglio among certain quarters. That the process ended in a deadlock underlined the fact that the intent and negotiating positions of the parties in conflict remain the least understood. Why do the Taliban, willing to hold out an olive branch to the United States, continue to carry out such gruesome attacks inside Afghanistan? Is this a serious attempt by the United States to broker peace in Afghanistan or a desperate measure to extricate itself from the conflict theatre? Answers to these questions, to a large extent, define the complexities of the search for peace and stability in the war-torn country. It also bares the element of futility of talks, dialogue, negotiations with the extremists especially when the conditions and the time are not ripe for such peacemaking initiatives. |
| Date: | 26 July 2013 |
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| Title: | 290 : Indian Economy, Amartya Sen and Jagdish Bhagwati |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s two most-celebrated economists – Nobel Laureate Amartya Sen, Professor of Economics and Philosophy at Harvard University, and Jagdish Bhagwati, Professor of Economics and Law at Columbia University – have been exchanging sharp notes and views on what ails the Indian economy and what should be its ideal recipe for success. |
| Date: | 26 July 2013 |
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| Title: | 289 : Indian Rupee: Tortuous Travails |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent numbers of the index of industrial production (IIP) and the consumer price index (CPI) in India have been the cause for some serious concern. The IIP and CPI numbers suggest that even as growth is decelerating, inflation is actually accelerating. Specifically for the IIP, the index declined by 1.6 per cent relative to May 2012, sharply below consensus estimates as there was an anticipation for small positive gains. This, if any, is an early indication that growth projections for the current year will be scaled downwards from their already modest levels. Concurrently, consumer inflation has accelerated at 9.9 per cent over June 2012, about half a percentage point higher than the previous month. Food prices largely contributed to this increase. While it was nonÔÇôcereals in the earlier occasion that caused this inflationary pressure, this time, prices of cereals have increased almost by 18 per cent. 15 July 2013 figures of wholesale price index (WPI) indicated a worsening of inflationary pressures to 4.86%. Reuters reported a drop in industrial production figures (as evident in Exhibit 1), coupled with a volatile WPI inflation. High cost of funds coupled with pressure on net interest margins will constrain the efforts of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reduce interest rates at the next monetary policy review on 30 July 2013. |
| Date: | 16 July 2013 |
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| Title: | 288 : China’s Gwadar Pearl The port acquisition and implications for India |
| Author/s: | Christabel Neo, worked as an Intern at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As several Asian nations, large and littoral, rise to counterbalance the Western powers, it is imperative for the global community to examine the geopolitics of the larger Asian region that has yet to find a sustainable framework for cooperation. When dissecting Asia’s geopolitical landscape, perhaps the most recurrent theme is China’s ‘String of Pearls’ strategy and its significance in the Sino-Indian strategic quandary. Since it was coined, nearly a decade ago, in a Booz Allen report for the Pentagon to describe the perceived encirclement of India in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), the phrase has often been used to depict the precariousness of the competition between the two aspiring hegemons, wherein almost every decision made by either country can be viewed as a potential threat by its counterpart. |
| Date: | 11 July 2013 |
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| Title: | 287 : The Sliding Rupee: Crisis or Opportunity? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Indian Rupee's (INR) sudden slide has created panic in the business and policy circles. The major concerns are over whether the almost free-fall will adversely affect the Current Account Deficit (CAD) and inflation. There are also concerns over whether a depreciating rupee will increase the fiscal deficit by increasing expenditure on subsidies and jeopardise the repayment schedule for external commercial borrowings (ECBs). |
| Date: | 14 June 2013 |
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| Title: | 286 : A ‘New’ Pakistan: Implications for Indo-Pak Relations |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan’s recently concluded general elections scored an important first. It was the first time that power had been transferred from one civilian government to another via popular elections. This has generated a predictable amount of optimism amongst certain sections, both within and outside Pakistan, about Pakistan and for its relations with the outside world. One of the keenest observers of Pakistan’s recent elections was India. In the aftermath of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, India’s relations with Pakistan have plummeted to a historical low. Pakistan’s general elections provided an opportunity for India’s political leaders to reassess the potential to improve this bilateral relationship. |
| Date: | 7 June 2013 |
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| Title: | 285 : War-head Worries: Asia’s Expanding Nuclear Arsenals |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | For some time, nuclear arsenals all across the world have been the focus of global policy makers‟ attention. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has come up with a report on 3 June 2013, which has stressed that nuclear arsenals of the Asian countries – such as China, India, and Pakistan – are expanding while the older nuclear-weapon states, such as the United States and Russia are scaling down theirs. It has described this phenomenon as “disturbing” given that peace in Asia is still “fragile”, that “decades old suspicions linger, and economic integration has not been followed up with political integration”. |
| Date: | 7 June 2013 |
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| Title: | 284 : Decoding India-Japan and Sino-Pak Talks |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The transparent scale-up of India's defence cooperation with Japan, evident during their latest summit, shows that New Delhi can deploy a diplomatic, not military, card with reference to China at this stage. Equally important are the signs that China has not given up its Pakistan card in regard to India even in the new context of an unusual paradox in Sino-Indian ambience. These aspects have come into focus in the just-concluded cameos of strategic forays by China in South Asia and India in East Asia. |
| Date: | 6 June 2013 |
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| Title: | 283 : China Reinforces the Bridge to Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Consultant at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The two-day visit of new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to Pakistan (22-23 May) took place during extraordinary times of political transition, following the 11 May general election, from one civilian government to another – the first such change in Pakistan’s troubled political history. In addition to the substance, the visit was significant as part of the first overseas tour by the new Chinese Premier and as the first by a foreign leader after the elections in Pakistan. Setting the tone in a pre-visit interview to a Chinese magazine, Mr Li used a new term “iron brother” for Pakistan. As Pakistan's closest ally, demonstrating "all-weather friendship," China has risen to Pakistan’s support in difficult times. |
| Date: | 6 June 2013 |
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| Title: | 282 : Bangladesh’s Growth Enablers |
| Author/s: | Ishraq Ahmed : Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Bangladesh economy has experienced sustained growth over the last three decades, but it has only been since the economic policy reforms of the 1990s that economic growth truly accelerated. The reforms bore fruition – the second half of this decade witnessed the growth in gross domestic product (GDP) exceeding six per cent annually – and the growth performance has kept pace with that of other countries in South Asia. |
| Date: | 21 May 2013 |
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| Title: | 281 : Post-poll Pakistan’s Economic Priorities |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Pakistani electorate has given Mian Nawaz Sharif a commanding lead in the newly-elected National Assembly and a clear majority in the Punjab provincial assembly. In South Asian politics, incumbency is rarely rewarded. The fact that the Pakistan People's Party suffered a humiliating defeat is in keeping with this trend. The party was punished for its poor economic performance and even more for its very poor governance. Under its care, Pakistan not only saw the economy move into a long-term growth recession. It also led to Pakistan being labelled as one of the most corrupt countries on earth. |
| Date: | 17 May 2013 |
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| Title: | 280 : Mixed Fortunes for the Congress |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The headlines in a national Indian daily on 9 May 2013 — ‘Ecstasy in Karnataka, Agony in SC’ — summed up the Congress party’s plight quite accurately. The good news for the Congress was a convincing electoral victory in the Assembly elections in the southern state of Karnataka; the bad news, however, was the Supreme Court’s scathing criticism of the Congress-led federal government for interfering in the enquiry by the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI), India’s federal investigating agency, into a coal scam which surfaced in 2012. |
| Date: | 15 May 2013 |
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| Title: | 279 : The Reincarnation of Nawaz Sharif: Pakistan’s Deepening Democracy |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, |
| Abstract: | Barring an act of God, Nawaz Sharif is poised to become Pakistan's Prime Minister for the third time round. Each reincarnation implies changes, and so will this one. We are likely to see in him a seasoned politician, chastened by experience, matured over time and also hardened by adversity. His Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) [PML(N)] has won sufficient number of seats of the 272 elected to form government, albeit with the support of some eager independents. There are 70 more seats in the Lower House of the Parliament, reserved for women and minorities, which will be proportionately divided among the parties elected, which means PML(N) will walk away with the major share. |
| Date: | 13 May 2013 |
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| Title: | 278 : Pakistan Elections 2013: Some Countdown Reflections |
| Author/s: | Riaz Hassan, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On Saturday 11 May 2013, 82 million Pakistanis would be eligible to vote in the general election to elect 272 members of national parliament. In most modern countries well-crafted opinion polls can now reasonably accurately predict the outcome of elections. But this is not so in the case of Pakistan. There are two main reasons for this. First, according to the latest voting-intention survey, only 50 per cent of eligible voters are likely to vote for one of 4,670 candidates contesting the election. Secondly, in most modern countries, voting behaviour is determined by three Ps: party, policy, personality. In Pakistan voting behaviour is largely determined by personality of the candidate and his/her party. In a layered society like Pakistan, personality is often the proxy for ethnic, tribal and sectarian affiliations. Notwithstanding these factors, is it possible to identify a broad contour of the election outcome? In the following, I attempt to do that. |
| Date: | 10 May 2013 |
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| Title: | 277 : Pakistan Goes to Polls: Imran Khan’s Tumble and the Youth Surge |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The unexpected has happened as Pakistan prepares to hold the next general election on 11 May 2013. Early in the evening of 7 May, Imran Khan, the rising star in Pakistani politics, suffered a fall in Gulberg, Lahore, a high-income constituency in the capital of the country's Punjab province. He fell while being lifted by a forklift on to a speaking platform. First carried on people's arms to his Sports Utility Vehicle and then transferred to an ambulance, Khan was eventually taken to Shaukat Khanum Hospital. He was attended there by a team of senior doctors. They used CT scans and X-Rays to determine the extent of injuries he had suffered. He did not have fractures in his skull but one of his vertebrae was damaged. |
| Date: | 8 May 2013 |
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| Title: | 276 : Politics in Pakistan: The Judge and the General |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | There is never a dearth of excitement in Pakistani politics. This extends to even the period of the brief caretaker regime, which lasts for around three months, and whose sole objective is to hold national elections. This is a model borrowed from Bangladesh. To be fair, Pakistan has managed to use it more effectively than the country it drew upon, which has since discarded it. But the political turmoil in Bangladesh is evidence that it has not been able to replace it with any workable mechanism on which all sides have consensus. It is important to agree on the method of holding elections in societies where political differences can and do often take violent forms. In Pakistan, this hurdle of an agreed method has at least been cleared. |
| Date: | 11 April 2013 |
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| Title: | 275 : The Political Elevation of Narendra Modi |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A little over two months ago, on 22 January 2013, the President of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Nitin Gadkari, who was under a cloud of corruption allegations, was hustled out to make way for a party veteran and former party chief, Rajnath Singh. It was during Singh's earlier tenure as president of India's main opposition party from 2005-2009 that Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi was dropped from the BJP's Parliamentary Board, the party's apex decision-making body. One of the reasons given then for the dropping of Modi was that there was a conflict of interest between being a state chief minister as well as being on the panel to select election candidates. The real reason, many felt, was that some senior BJP leaders had felt threatened by Modi. |
| Date: | 5 April 2013 |
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| Title: | 274 : Afghanistan’s Economic Transition: Path to Long-Term Stability |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Much of the discourse on inteqal (transition) in Afghanistan has focused on the numbers and capacities of the Afghan security sector tasked to repulse insurgent onslaughts. Civilian capacity building, economic opportunities, trade, transit and investment that would potentially change the narrative of Afghanistan from being an aid-dependent state to a self-sustaining economy, has received much less attention. As Afghanistan traverses a challenging path, the economic component will be critical to shore up Afghanistan's institutional capacities and bring in long-term stability. |
| Date: | 28 March 2013 |
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| Title: | 273 : The New Great Game in Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The previous great game was played in one part of Asia and the players were form Europe. Britain and Russia worked hard to gain influence over Afghanistan and other Central Asian countries. London wished to install a puppet regime in Kabul to protect the northwest flank of its Indian Empire. Moscow, indulging in its perennial quest to gain access to a body of warm water, saw Afghanistan along with the northwest parts of British India offering one way of achieving this goal. Rudyard Kipling called it a "great game" since the contestants chose not to fight but to manoeuvre in a not very crowded field. Two different contestants are playing the new game. There are some major differences too. This time, the entire Asian continent is in play and one of the contestants is not from within the area. This paper examines how the two new teams of policy makers in Beijing and Washington are entering the contest and outlines some of the problems they face. |
| Date: | 27 March 2013 |
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| Title: | 272 : Pakistan Prepares for Polls: Dilemmas of its Democracy |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | However unlikely it might have seemed from time to time, Pakistan's forward movement along the path of democracy now appears to be inexorable. It has demonstrated the perfect example of the very British art of 'muddling through'. Elements of uncertainty still remain, as they always do in a game of cricket that its people take to as duck to water. But barring an act of God, elections will take place on 11 May 2013. For the first time in its history an elected civilian government has completed its full term in office and a peaceful transfer of power, or a continuation of the same, is widely expected. |
| Date: | 27 March 2013 |
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| Title: | 271 : Chittagong Port – Prospects for Revival |
| Author/s: | Ishraq Ahmed, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Chittagong port, as the largest port in Bangladesh, is the lifeline of the country's economy. Considering the growth prospects of Bangladesh, the port is expected to handle increasing volumes of traded goods. While Chittagong port has undergone noticeable improvements in handling containers and optimising the use of facilities, further investment and development need to be undertaken for it to become a national hub and an economic gateway to southeast Asia. |
| Date: | 26 March 2013 |
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| Title: | 270 : Sri Lanka at the UNHRC: Will it be Useful for Sri Lankans? |
| Author/s: | Gloria Spittel, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | If at first you do not succeed, keep trying — this adage is befitting of the relationship between Sri Lanka and the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC). All that is left to be seen (again) is who ‘wins’ the latest round now, and if ‘winning’ actually means anything to either side. |
| Date: | 21 March 2013 |
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| Title: | 269 : Asia and Obama’s New Trade Initiative |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The United States, under President Barack Obama, has taken the initiative to revive an old idea: to create a free trade area encompassing the European Union and the United States. According to the timeline accepted on both sides of the Atlantic, negotiations aimed at creating such a bloc will begin in late-spring of this year and conclude in two years. José Manuel Barroso, President of the European Commission, described this effort as a “game-changer”. This will unite two trading partners that account for nearly half of the world economic output and 30 per cent of world trade. The stock of shared investment adds up to $3.5 trillion. “Together, we will form the largest trade zone in the world…It is a boost to our economies that does not cost a cent of taxpayer money,” he said.2 If the returns on the creation of the trading bloc are so large and the cost so little, why has this idea taken so long to mature? If such a trading bloc does emerge how will it impact Asia? This paper attempts to answer these two questions. |
| Date: | 25 February 2013 |
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| Title: | 268 : State Elections in Northeast India |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A series of state assembly elections will precede the next general election in India where the current term of the Lok Sabha (lower House of Parliament) is set to last until 31 May 2014. In 2013, at least eight states will hold legislative assembly elections. In Northeast India, the states of Tripura, Meghalaya and Nagaland are now going to the polls. Each of these three states has a 60-member assembly. Tripura went to the polls on 14 February while the electorate in Meghalaya and Nagaland will vote on 23 February. |
| Date: | 22 February 2013 |
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| Title: | 267 : New Focus on Stable China-India Ties |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | China and India have held “forward looking” defence talks in “a friendly and cooperative atmosphere”2 in Beijing in the first half of January 2013. Truly significant is the fact that these talks took place amid signs of new belligerence across the Pakistan-India Line of Control (LOC) in Jammu and Kashmir. |
| Date: | 24 January 2013 |
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| Title: | 266 : The Delhi Rape Protests: Observations on Middle Class Activism in India |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The year 2012 was indelibly tainted in India by the horrific gang rape in New Delhi and the death of the 23-year-old victim in a Singapore hospital. The images that remain with us in the early days of the New Year, however, are of the protests that shook Delhi and other metropolitan cities in end-December 2012. Even as the perpetrators of the rape are tried, it is perhaps an appropriate time to assess the nature of the protests and the ones similar to them over the past two years, and what they say about India's civil society. |
| Date: | 24 January 2013 |
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| Title: | 265 : Qadri, the Charismatic Cleric: A Creator of Chaos or a Champion of a Cause? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | For half a week in January 2013, many eyes in South Asia, and in much of the world, were focused on a maverick Mullah in Pakistan by the name of Muhammad Tahir-ul Qadri. Many saw him, and still do, as a harbinger of change. A Pakistani combination of India’s Anna Hazare and Iran’s Ayatollah Khomeini, he appeared suddenly like a comet on that nation’s political horizon, summoning up the largest crowd ever gathered in that challenged country’s capital, Islamabad, and nearly toppled the government. Just as suddenly, he melted away as did those myriads of followers who braved the rain and cold at his bidding. Pakistan’s version of Xenophon’s ‘March of the Ten Thousand’ was over for now. But not without having left an indelible imprint on its political fabric, demonstrating that people’s power still mattered in a system that, through most of its history, has been dominated by the proverbial uniformed ‘man on horseback’ or the military. Qadri appeared for a time to render the streets of Islamabad chaotic. But those gathered around him saw his actions as reflecting a cause: not just for restoring honesty in governance but seeking to do that by using as the tool the tolerant, syncretistic, and Sufistic face of Islam which represents Pakistan’s values, urgings and ethos much more than that fierce, fundamentalist, and Salafist version that has been relentlessly battering the Pakistani nation, exhausting it, and sharpening the public’s yearning for a positive change. |
| Date: | 21 January 2013 |
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| Title: | 264 : India-Pakistan Peace Process: The Risk of a Breakdown |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The barbaric beheading of an Indian solider earlier this month, allegedly by the Pakistan Army on the Line of Control that separates the two countries in the disputed frontier of Jammu & Kashmir, appears to have breached the barrier of Delhi's tolerance. |
| Date: | 17 January 2013 |
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| Title: | 263 : Direct Cash Transfer of Subsidies: A Game-Changer for India? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | From 1 January 2013, India rolled out the much-hyped direct cash transfer of subsidies scheme. Widely tipped as a ‘game-changer’, the scheme is being heavily discussed for both its economic and political significance. Economically, it is expected to be a significant reform measure for improving distribution of subsidies by eliminating ‘leakages’ from the existing system of transfer in kind. Politically, the ruling Congress hopes to capitalise on the scheme’s spirit of ‘Aapka Paisa, Aapke Haath’ (‘Your money in your hands’) by publicising it is as a move pioneered by the Congress party for putting money directly in the hands of people. |
| Date: | 8 January 2013 |
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