| Title: | 39 : Forthcoming Pakistan Elections: A Profile on the Islamic Parties |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A Lodhi |
| Abstract: | It is important to note that the Islamic parties in Pakistan, unlike their mainstream moderate counterparts, are less prone to personality cult and are largely driven by ideology, though personalities do play an important role in ideological steering. They act as centripetal forces by monopolising Islam. Traditionally, there have been two types of Islamic organisations in Pakistan: one, participating in parliamentary politics and, the other, limited to socio-spiritual matters. However, a third type that has emerged is the violence-prone of Jihadi and sectarian outfits. These are a by-product of the Afghanistan Jihad. Nevertheless, all three are interlinked with each other in one way or another. This brief is confined to the two main parliamentary Islamic parties in Pakistan; Jama'at-e-Islami [Society for Muslim] (JI) and Jamiat-Ulema-e-Islam [Council of Islamic Scholars] (JUI). |
| Date: | 26 December 2007 |
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| Title: | 38 : Who Wins in the Gujarat Election? |
| Author/s: | Mr Dhiraj Nayyar |
| Abstract: | The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), led by Mr Narendra Modi, has won the elections in the western Indian state of Gujarat overwhelming all opposition. But aside from the electoral arithmetic of a majority of seats in the newly elected legislature, not even the BJP is a clear winner in Gujarat today. If anything, Gujarat has thrown up a long list of casualties, and while most commentary on the elections will focus on the winners, this piece will focus on the losers. In this election, in the view of this writer, the losses are more significant than the gains. |
| Date: | 24 December 2007 |
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| Title: | 37 : Forthcoming Pakistan Elections: A Profile on Nawaz Sharif |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Nawaz Sharif (complete name, Mian Muhammad Nawaz Sharif) is the leader of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), a nationwide party with its main support in the Punjab. Mr Sharif was born in Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan, on 10 December 1949 in a family of Kashmiri descent that fled to Pakistan at the time of the partition of India in 1947 from Jatti Umra, a village in Amritsar district of the undivided Punjab, now part of the Indian East Punjab. His father and uncles jointly owned an iron foundry. Starting from humble circumstances, they expanded their business and became prosperous and affluent. Mr Sharif is married and has two sons and two daughters. |
| Date: | 19 December 2007 |
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| Title: | 36 : Forthcoming Pakistan Elections: A Profile on Benazir Bhutto |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | On 10 April 1986, over a million people gave a rousing reception to Ms Benazir Bhutto when she returned from political exile. On 18 October 2007, she returned after another period of exile, but this time, she was nearly killed by a horrific bomb attack which claimed over one hundred lives. Ms Bhutto had come back to a very different Pakistan from the one in which she grew up, and which both she and her father had led as Prime Ministers at different periods. |
| Date: | 13 December 2007 |
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| Title: | 35 : Forthcoming Pakistan Elections: A Profile on Imran Khan |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The Election Commission of Pakistan has announced elections to the national and provincial assemblies of Pakistan on 8 January 2008. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan subscribes to the parliamentary system of multiparty democracy. Universal adult franchise is followed, and all men and women who are at least 18 years of age are entitled to vote for a candidate of their choice through a secret ballot. The first-past-the-post procedure is followed to elect members of the national and provincial assemblies. It means that the candidate who receives the highest numbers of votes in a constituency is elected to the legislative assembly. The national parliament consists of two houses - an upper house, called the Senate, and the lower house, called the National Assembly. The National Assembly, which is elected directly by the people, consists of 342 seats of which 60 seats are reserved for women and 10 for minorities. |
| Date: | 12 December 2007 |
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| Title: | 34 : The Battle of Nandigram and West Bengal’s Political and Economic Future |
| Author/s: | Dhiraj Nayyar |
| Abstract: | The rural islet of Nandigram in West Bengal is in the news again for all the wrong reasons following an outbreak of violent clashes between CPI(M) cadres and locals, allegedly led by armed Maoists. Nandigram has been in the news since late in 2006 after it was designated as a site for a chemicals based Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The villagers protested the imminent acquisition of their lands and expelled the ruling party cadres out of the village in January 2007, some of whom were also cultivators in the village. Nandigram was effectively cut off from the outside world through blockades, and the destruction of key infrastructure like roads and bridges leading into the area. The ruling party cadres, and local government authorities, claiming the earlier takeover as an act of mischief engineered by motley opposition groups including the Trinamul Congress and hard-line Maoists, made a botched attempt to recapture the village in March - at least 15 people were killed, probably more. The latest violence which left at least three people dead was another attempt by the ruling Left Front to recapture the village. |
| Date: | 10 December 2007 |
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| Title: | 33 : Cyclone Sidr’s Deadly Trail and Bangladesh’s Humanitarian Crisis |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | Tropical cyclone Sidr, a category 4 storm, ripped through Bangladesh's Southwestern coast on 15 November, costing over 3,500 lives and demolishing houses, crops, and other valuables. Thousands of people in the country are facing a humanitarian crisis. Some remote areas remain impenetrable to the search operators. The Red Crescent fears that the causalities could be as high as 10,000 as many people are still missing in the coastal areas. An estimated one million families are believed to have been affected and thousands of people are living under the open skies. Survivors in the disaster-prone areas are in dire need of food, water, and shelter. |
| Date: | 21 November 2007 |
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| Title: | 32 : Political Intrigue in Karnataka: Implications for India |
| Author/s: | Mr Dhiraj Nayyar |
| Abstract: | Karnataka and Bangalore showed India the future by playing host to a then nascent, and now booming, information technology industry. It was in Bangalore, perhaps, that India's economic boom of the 1990s and the 2000s first began, back in the 1980s. The southern Indian state has, thus, been a symbol of India's economic drive and private entrepreneurship. In recent weeks, however, the state has been more in the news for its messy politics. Amidst all the intrigue and machinations of the politicians, the events in Karnataka, are perhaps an important pointer to the future of Indian politics, almost like the rise of the information technology industry was to the future of the Indian economy. |
| Date: | 12 November 2007 |
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| Title: | 31 : Emergency Rule in Pakistan: Making Sense of the Reasons and Rationale |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi |
| Abstract: | Pakistan's General Pervez Musharraf, in a not very surprising move, declared a state of emergency for an indefinite period on 3 November 2007. The fundamental question is whether the current action will help to bring stability in the country, as claimed, or will it further derail the transition to democracy and exacerbate the political crisis. What doe the current move also mean for the future of the country's ascent economic growth? |
| Date: | 5 November 2007 |
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| Title: | 30 : Pakistan’s Struggle for Democracy – How should India Respond? |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is going through a difficult period. It has vacillated between democracy and military throughout its history and entered the 21st century under military rule. At present moment, it is at the epicentre of a tumultuous geo-political climate and is besieged by domestic crises that have strained Pakistani politics to its limits. Pakistan’s embattled President General Musharraf has been forced into negotiating a power-sharing agreement with former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto in a desperate attempt to survive. Yet, this deal, even if politically possible, is shrouded in legal clouds. There is a Supreme Court challenge to the legitimacy of General Musharraf’s presidency; it remains unclear if Bhutto, who has returned to Pakistan after eight years of self imposed exile, will be able to contest elections as Prime Minister for the third time due to constitutional amendments limiting prime ministership to two terms and, most importantly, the future of Article 58(2) (b) which empowers the President to dismiss the Prime Minister hangs in limbo. The declaration of emergency rule over the weekend, the suspension of the Constitution and the deployment of troops across the capital have thrown Pakistan into further turmoil. |
| Date: | 4 November 2007 |
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| Title: | 29 : Development Blues in Urban India: Failure of Accountability-Responsibility Mechanism |
| Author/s: | Indu Rayadurgam |
| Abstract: | Cities have emerged as the backbone of economies all over the world, with their contributions to overall employment and growth, well above that of agrarian and rural societies. There are many factors which determine urban competitiveness, both at the national and the international level. The interplay of structural economic changes and geo-political developments, combined with domestic economic policy changes, sectoral contributions to growth and demographic changes, determine the competitiveness of urban areas in any country. |
| Date: | 24 October 2007 |
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| Title: | 28 : Cold Feet in Autumn – Climb Down from Elections in India |
| Author/s: | Mr Dhiraj Nayyar |
| Abstract: | The chill of autumn seems to be contagious, at least in the political class. First, in England, Gordon Brown got cold feet over calling an early election. Soon after, in India, Manmohan Singh and Sonia Gandhi got afflicted with an almost identical 'cold foot disease' and climbed down from the brink of calling an early election. |
| Date: | 24 October 2007 |
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| Title: | 27 : Climate Change, Conflict over Scarce Resources and the Nobel Peace Prize |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and former United States Vice- President, Al Gore, shared the Nobel peace prize for 2007 for 'their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change, and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change', according to the Nobel Committee's citation. |
| Date: | 23 October 2007 |
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| Title: | 26 : General Pervez Musharraf: A Profile |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | President General Pervez Musharraf (born 11 August 1943) has ruled Pakistan since 12 October 1999 when he overthrew the government of Prime Minister Mian Muahammad Nawaz Sharif who tried to dismiss him and appoint another general as the army chief of staff. Musharraf hails from a lower middle class family of Urdu-speaking parents who migrated to Pakistan from Delhi, India, when Pakistan was created in 1947 as a separate Muslim-majority state in the Indian subcontinent. |
| Date: | 19 October 2007 |
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| Title: | 25 : Musharraf’s Future – Legality versus Legitimacy |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | On 28 September 2007, the Pakistan Supreme Court gave embattled President Pervez Musharraf a glimmer of hope when it dismissed, by a six to three majority, petitions by opposition members attempting to prevent Musharraf from continuing his reign of power. The court did not give reasons for its decisions, with the majority simply stating that the petitions were not maintainable under the law. The minority in the Supreme Court held that the petitions were maintainable under Art 184(3) of the Constitution on the basis that they involved matters of public interest and affected protected Fundamental Rights. The pro-Musharraf group views this as a vindication of Musharraf's campaign while the opposition claims the ruling was merely on technical grounds and has vowed to press ahead with further challenges in the days ahead. |
| Date: | 4 October 2007 |
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| Title: | 24 : Trouble with the Gods: Religion and Public Policy in India |
| Author/s: | Dhiraj Nayyar |
| Abstract: | The Hindu God Rama made a dramatic comeback to the centre stage of Indian politics last week. The Indian government, in a submission to the Supreme Court, denied the existence of Rama, arguing that there is no historical or archaeological evidence to prove his existence, much to the consternation and protest of the believers. |
| Date: | 21 September 2007 |
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| Title: | 23 : The Grand Jirga Imperative: Is this the Solution to the Taliban Insurgency? |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Taliban insurgency on both sides of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border has become almost uncontainable. A recent American intelligence report claimed that the north-west tribal areas in Pakistan, near the Afghanistan border, have become 'safe havens' for Al-Qaeda and the Taliban. In the backdrop of such reports, there have been strong calls in the United States for direct military attacks on these areas, bypassing the Pakistan army, to take out the militants. |
| Date: | 20 September 2007 |
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| Title: | 22 : Clearly Troubled: The Indian Government and a Nuclear Deal |
| Author/s: | Mr Dhiraj Nayyar, Research Fellow-designate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The ruling Indian coalition is tottering on the brink of an implosion, following a fall out between two of its major constituents - the ruling Indian National Congress and the supporting communist parties. And the disharmony, amusingly described as marital discord by the parties concerned, though seeming like daggers drawn to everyone else, is the direct consequence of the recently concluded Indo-US civilian nuclear deal. |
| Date: | 31 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 21 : Hyderabad Burning – A Domestic Challenge with Regional Implications |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The twin explosions that rocked the city of Hyderabad on 25 August 2007 are a chilling reminder that terrorism continues to thrive and that India remains as vulnerable as ever in combating this challenge. India has suffered a series of bombings and attacks in the last two years, including incidents in New Delhi (October 2005), Varanasi (March 2006), Old Delhi (April 2006), Mumbai (July 2006), Malegaon, Maharashtra (September 2006) and the train bombing in February 2007. Hyderabad itself had already been struck just three months earlier when a bomb exploded at Mecca Mosque in May 2007. All these events have claimed the lives of around 500 people and injured scores more. While different groups may have been responsible for these incidents, the incidents are bound together in one way - all of the attacks have targeted civilians in public spaces and can be linked ostensibly to communal/religious conflict. |
| Date: | 29 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 20 : Time to Look Down Under: Australia may hold the key to India’s Nuclear Energy |
| Author/s: | Malminder Singh, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Indo-US civilian nuclear negotiations have, quite naturally, been hogging the front page of almost every leading newspaper in the world in recent weeks. The controversial negotiations have created opinion divides not just within India but they have, arguably, been the subject of debate internationally. |
| Date: | 28 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 19 : Floods in Bangladesh, Changes in Monsoon Pattern and a Wake-up Call for South Asia |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | South Asia is experiencing one of its worst monsoons in recent years. Millions of people in Bangladesh, northern India and Nepal are facing a humanitarian crisis. With roughly half the country under water, Bangladesh is one of the worst affected victims of the annual rainy season, which started in mid-June 2007. |
| Date: | 23 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 18 : Worries and Hopes for India’s IT Industry |
| Author/s: | Jayan Jose Thomas, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Information technology (IT) industry has been one of India’s greatest success stories since the 1990s. The combined revenues from IT software, IT services and information technology enabled services (ITES) industries in India touched US$47.8 billion in 2006-07; this was 5.4 per cent of India’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in that year. India is the top location in offshoring of service work. Estimates made in 2005 indicated that India accounted for 44 per cent of the total value of outsourcing by IT and ITES industries worldwide.1 For all these, however, the road ahead is not entirely hassle-free for this industry in India. The latest cause of worry has been the appreciation of the Indian Rupee in relation to the US dollar. This reduces India’s IT firms’ export earnings, two-thirds of which are derived from the United States. |
| Date: | 17 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 17 : India at 60: Banking on the Demographic Dividend |
| Author/s: | Jayan Jose Thomas, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As India celebrates its 60th year of independence, the mood in the air is a mix of excitement and despondency. A new generation of Indian professionals and entrepreneurs are basking in the glory of global recognition. At the same time, as floods caused havoc in many parts of the subcontinent over the past few weeks, millions of Indians are starving, displaced from their homes, and desperate for assistance. |
| Date: | 16 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 16 : Pakistan at Sixty: It’s Time to Give Democracy a Chance |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 14 August 2007, the Islamic Republic of Pakistan celebrated its 60th anniversary. It was founded as a result of the partition of British India on a religious basis -the north-western and north-eastern zones of the subcontinent in which the Muslims were in a majority were separated from the rest of India and awarded to Pakistan. |
| Date: | 15 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 15 : Redefining India: The Recent Policy Changes and the Second National Commission on Urbanisation |
| Author/s: | Indu Rayadurgam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In June 2007, a report on the opportunities and problems posed by urbanisation in the developing world was brought out as a report in The State of the World Population Report 2007 by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). The same month witnessed a conference on "National Alliance to End Homelessness" in the United States which was held in Washington D.C. Both the UNFPA report and the conference revealed the increasing social and economic challenges in the developed and developing world. |
| Date: | 3 August 2007 |
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| Title: | 14 : Raising Money in Indian Markets – The Indian Depository Receipts Option |
| Author/s: | K. V. Ramaswamy, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Indias economic growth story is now familiar with a comfortable foreign exchange reserve of over US$200 billion. In this context, if a foreign or a Singaporean company wants to raise money in the Indian stock market how should it go about doing it? The best possible option would be the Indian Depository Receipts (IDRs). They are made simpler now with the issue of a new set of regulations issued by the by the Ministry of Corporate affairs (earlier known as the Department of Company Affairs) on 17 July 2007. IDRs are certificates that represent the shares of a foreign stock. |
| Date: | 27 July 2007 |
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| Title: | 13 : Electing the Next Vice-President of India – A Unanimous Choice |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow and Head of Research at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The name of Hamid Ansari has been announced as the unanimous choice of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA)-Left combined for the post of the Vice President of India. The position becomes vacant on 10 August 2007 when the existing incumbent, Mr Bhairav Singh Shekhawat, completes his five-year tenure. |
| Date: | 23 July 2007 |
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| Title: | 12 : The Lal Masjid Saga: Has Musharraf Finally Triumphed over Extremism in Pakistan? |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | After a six-month standoff, Pakistani forces finally seized the Lal Masjid (Red Mosque) complex in Islamabad last week. A day-long heavy gun battle, with grenades and rockets, claimed the lives of more than 80 militants, including Abdul Rashid Ghazi, the cleric leading the militants. The total casualties, since the clash began last week, would probably be well above 150 and included 10 army personnel. |
| Date: | 16 July 2007 |
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| Title: | 11 : Monetary Policy in India – The Current Conjuncture |
| Author/s: | Errol D'Souza, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) released its Annual Monetary Policy Statement for 2007-08 on April 24, 2007 in which it clearly laid out its dominant objectives - to manage the surging capital inflows and contain inflation. On both counts there is a confrontation between the RBI and the Ministry of Finance and monetary policy is compromised as a result. |
| Date: | 10 July 2007 |
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| Title: | 10 : Achieving Economic Growth In China And India – At What Environmental Cost? |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The economic growth of China and India turn Asia as the epicenter of the global economy. It is predicted that this growth will continue in the near future as China is set to become the world's second largest economy and India is poised to take the fourth place by 2030, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit. A British Broadcasting Corporation on-line survey in April 2006 predicted that China will overtake the United States- economy by 2026. |
| Date: | 7 June 2007 |
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| Title: | 09 : The Uttar Pradesh State Election – Will It Change The Political Equation At The Centre? |
| Author/s: | Dr Maathai K. Mathiyazhagan |
| Abstract: | India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, elected a new Chief Minister in its recently-concluded election. Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (B SP) won 206 seats in the 402-member state assembly, becoming the first political outfit in the last 14 years to obtain an absolutely majority in the state. In the election held from 7 April to 8 May 2007, the northern Indian state, with a population of 180 million, witnessed uniformed polling, with a voter turnout of 46.13 per cent. This was about 7.67 per cent lower than that in the last assembly election in 2002 |
| Date: | 18 May 2007 |
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| Title: | 08 : There’s Something About Maya: Changing Politics In India’s Largest State |
| Author/s: | Mr Dhiraj Nayyar |
| Abstract: | Uttar Pradesh is India’s largest state. In fa ct, with a population of around 180 million, it is also larger than most countries across the globe. It’s no wonder then to hear the epithet, ‘When Uttar Pradesh sneezes, India catches a chil l’. And what a sneeze it was as the voters of Uttar Pradesh elected the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of, by and for the formerly untouchable dalits, to govern the state with the first single party majority since 1991. The BSP is led by the inimitable Mayawati, who has just taken oath as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh for the fourth time but, for the first time, with a majority for her own party. |
| Date: | 17 May 2007 |
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| Title: | 07 : Pakistan’s Constitutional Crisis – What’s Next For Musharraf? |
| Author/s: | Dr Marie Lall |
| Abstract: | The last three days have seen some of the wo rst violence in Karachi for the last decade. On 12 May 2007, suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar M uhammad Chaudhry arrived at the airport to address a rally. The lawyers of the city had gathered in the High Court to wait for him. However, the Chief Justice never managed to ente r in the city as the ro ads had been blocked. Nine hours later, he flew back to Islamabad. Do wn town at the courthouse, the lawyers were prevented from leaving the building. Two of th e three entrances were physically blocked and, at the third, a gang of armed Mohajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) supporters stood guard, not letting anyone in or out. |
| Date: | 16 May 2007 |
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| Title: | 06 -2 : Recent State Assembly Elections in India : How Big a Setback for the Congress? |
| Author/s: | Dr Maathai Mathiyazhagan |
| Abstract: | I n February 2007, the Indian state s of Punjab, Uttarakhand (formerly Uttaranchal) and Man ipur held their state a ssembly elections. Manipur and Punjab witnessed a high voter turnout. The Punjab elections registered 74.3 per cent turnout which was about 10 per cent higher than that in the last assembly election in 2002. Similarly, Manipur had a turnout of 75 per cent in the first phase and 80 per cent in the final phase of the election. However, the percentage of vote s polled in the Uttarakhand reduced by nearly 10 per cent when compared to the 2002 elections . |
| Date: | 8 March 2007 |
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| Title: | 06 -1 : The Train Blasts: Impact on Indo-Pakistan Relations |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The blasts on the train between India and Pakistan killed 68 on the night of 18 February 2007, many of them Pakistanis. The damage could have been worse had other incendiary material discovered at the site of the incident also exploded. The contents of the unexploded suitcases suggest that the devices contained incendiary materials designed to start fires in coaches rather than destroy them through explosion. Many of those who died would probably have been able to escape had the doors of the coaches not been sealed and had the windows not had bars placed across them. For security reasons, police seal the doors of the coaches in Delhi after a security check and these are only opened at the border between India and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 7 March 2007 |
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| Title: | 05 : The Train Blasts: Impact on Indo-Pakistan Relations |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The blasts on the train between India and Paki stan killed 68 on the night of 18 February 2007, many of them Pakistanis. The damage could ha ve been worse had other incendiary material discovered at the site of the incident also e xploded. The contents of the unexploded suitcases suggest that the devices contai ned incendiary materials designed to start fires in coaches rather than destroy them through explosion. Many of those who died would probably have been able to escape had the doors of the coaches not been sealed and had the windows not had bars placed across them. For security reas ons, police seal the doors of the coaches in Delhi after a security check and these are only opened at the border between India and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 24 February 2007 |
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