| Title: | 535 : The 24-hour Electricity Programme in Telangana: More Needs to be Done for the Farmers |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | The government in the Indian State of Telangana announced in November 2017 that the agricultural sector in the State will receive 24-hour electricity supply from March-April 2018 onwards. However, the pilot project has met with stiff resistance from the farmers due to apprehensions that uninterrupted electricity supply will drain too much ground water. Moreover, the government's plans to revamp the farming sector may not alleviate the woes of the farmers. The sector has several pressing challenges at the present time. |
| Date: | 28 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 534 : Elections in Gujarat: A Close Win for the Bharatiya Janata Party |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) achieved a hard fought victory in the Assembly elections in the western Indian State of Gujarat, which is also the home State of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. While the BJP did not achieve its goal of winning 150 seats in the 182-seat Assembly, it won its sixth successive term in the State. The Congress, under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi, also received a boost since it gave the BJP a tough fight in the elections. The Gujarat results have important implications for the several State elections in 2018 and the general elections to the Lok Sabha in 2019. |
| Date: | 27 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 533 : Nepal’s Elections 2017: A Watershed in Nepalese Political History |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The year 2017 marked a landmark period for Nepal as the country held its first elections as a federal republic under a new constitution. This paper presents a snapshot of the significance of the elections in the context of the country’s political history as well as the potential domestic and external ramifications of the polls. |
| Date: | 13 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 532 : Diplomacy and Papacy: How Do the Twain Meet? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the challenges that Pope Francis confronted during his trips to Myanmar from 27 to 30 November 2017 and Bangladesh from 30 November to 2 December 2017 in an effort to defuse the tensions created by the Rohingya crisis between Myanmar and Bangladesh, and to draw the attention of the world to this massive humanitarian crisis. He seemed unswayed by either praise or criticism, and he drew both. He was able to demonstrate that while, as Pope, he might not command any military divisions, as former Soviet Union dictator Joseph Stalin had disdainfully observed, but he had the courage to attempt at more than what many other leaders did. |
| Date: | 7 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 531 : The Bharatiya Janata Party Confident Ahead of Gujarat Elections |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The Assembly elections in the Indian State of Gujarat will be held in two phases on 9 and 14 December 2017, with the results being announced on 18 December 2018. While the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is predicting that it will win over 150 seats in the 182-member Assembly, the Congress is banking on a coalition to improve on its performance in the State. This paper examines the election strategies of the BJP and the Congress in the State. |
| Date: | 6 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 530 : India-Singapore Defence Agreement: A New Phase in Partnership |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | The new agreement for naval cooperation between India and Singapore, signed at the end of November 2017 in New Delhi, India, marks an important milestone in the evolution of strategic partnership between the two countries. It also heralds more expansive defence cooperation between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as a whole, and would help contribute to the maintenance of peace and security at the heart of the Indo-Pacific. |
| Date: | 4 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 529 : Pakistan in Turmoil: Some Crystal Ball-gazing on its Future |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Pakistan was recently paralysed for several weeks by blockades on a main crossing leading to the capital Islamabad. Trouble started when Pakistan's Law Minister Zahid Hamid purportedly made the omission of the reference to Muhammad being the last Messenger in Islam. Believing that his action was deliberate and was aimed at appeasing the minority Ahmedi sect, the Islamist political party, Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan, took to the streets. While the blockades have ended, they have left bold imprints on the future of Pakistan's complex politics. The essay seeks to analyse some of the implications of the blockades. |
| Date: | 29 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 528 : Asia and Europe: Emerging Potentials for Cooperation |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The existing power balance in the contemporary world is changing rapidly. This paper analyses the reaction of the key Central Asian states to these changes with their consequent implications for the other regions, including South Asia and Southeast Asia. |
| Date: | 28 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 527 : Sri Lanka’s Budget 2018: Environment, Enterprise and Economics |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka’s government recently introduced its budget for 2018 in November 2017, which follows the ‘Vision 2025’ masterplan introduced in September 2017. This paper looks at the central themes which emerged out of the budget speech, namely, a ‘blue-green’ economy and ‘Enterprise Sri Lanka’, as well as the potential of the budget to address Sri Lanka’s current economic challenges which include an intractable deficit, low revenue collection and a trade imbalance. |
| Date: | 20 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 526 : The Status of Women in India: Widening Gender Gap |
| Author/s: | Taisha Grace Antony |
| Abstract: | India ranked a low 108th position out of 144 countries in the Global Gender Gap Index 2017 published recently by the World Economic Forum, slipping 21 places in its overall ranking from the 87th position in 2016. India's decline in the ranking can be primarily attributed to a widening of its gender gaps in political empowerment, literacy rate and life expectancy. India's gender gap is further accentuated by the low participation of the women in the economy and low wages for those who have the employment opportunity. It is crucial to understand the constraints faced by the women in order to devise the appropriate policies to address this complex problem. |
| Date: | 17 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 525 : India and the Resurrection of the Quad |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | India's decision to revive the quadrilateral security dialogue with Japan, the United States (US) and Australia marks an important departure in its engagement with the great powers. It is a decisive step towards the consolidation of the strategic partnerships with the US and its Asian allies, and in enhancing New Delhi's bargaining power vis-?á-vis Beijing. As he seeks a say in defining the agenda of the Quad, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is heralding his country's self-confident pursuit of enlightened self-interest with all the major powers. |
| Date: | 17 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 524 : China’s ‘New Era’ Vision: Implications for South Asia |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | Chinese President Xi Jinping’s announcement of a ‘new era’ during the 19th National Congress of the ruling Communist Party of China in October 2017 seems to reflect China’s emerging confidence in its capability to reshape the regional geopolitics on its own terms. However, this paper argues that, in view of the evolving power structure in the Indo-Pacific region, it is probably premature to make that assumption. |
| Date: | 13 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 523 : The Sharifs of Pakistan: A House Divided Against Itself |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The 'House of Sharif', acknowledged as Pakistan's ruling family is threatened with a split, arising out of what is seemingly an internecine rivalry. This paper looks at its possible impact on Pakistan's immediate political future. |
| Date: | 8 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 522 : India’s Improved ‘Ease of Doing Business’ Ranking: Concrete Steps and Mindset Change |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The World Bank has, in its 2018 report on ‘Doing Business’, lauded the efforts of the Indian government at undertaking reforms which have vastly helped improve the business environment in India, in terms of 10 parameters which constitute the indices for the bank’s survey. Though the improvement is not uniform in regard to all the 10 parameters, the apparently systematic and resolute manner in which the government is making efforts does indicate that India’s objective of making it to the top 50 countries could be achieved soon. The World Bank’s latest ranking is a major breakthrough for India as an attractive investment destination, this will also help restore the confidence of entrepreneurs in the administration after its recent initiatives like demonetisation and Goods and Services Tax had caused some dislocation in the small businesses sector. |
| Date: | 7 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 521 : Ease of Doing Business in India: A Big Jump but Tough for a Bigger Jump |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India has made significant progress in the ease of doing business ranks by climbing 30 places to reach 100. The achievement is being celebrated as a vindication of the Narendra Modi government's efforts to streamline regulations. While making large strides on indicators such as paying taxes, getting credit and tackling insolvency, India still ranks poorly on some other indicators such as starting a business, enforcing contracts, dealing with construction permits, registering property and trading across borders. Attributing the better rank to positive policy changes in areas managed by the Central government, the paper argues that climbing further would require greater action from the States. |
| Date: | 3 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 520 : Shinzo Abe’s Victory in Japan: Implications for India |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | In the national elections in Japan on 22 October 2017, the ruling coalition, led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, returned to power, defeating a divided opposition. While the election results show a strong mandate for Abe domestically, they also augur well for Japan-India relations. Abe has put much of his political capital into developing close ties with India, which has reciprocated positively under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. |
| Date: | 1 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 519 : Gujarat Assembly Elections: BJP Ahead Despite Voter Discontent |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The Indian state of Gujarat, where Prime Minister Narendra Modi was a three-term chief minister, goes to polls in December 2017. Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party, which is in power in Gujarat and at the Centre, is looking to make a strong statement by winning more seats in this state than it has ever won. He has made several visits to the state, and the party has used the delay in the announcement of the election dates to offer a variety of government schemes to win over the voters. |
| Date: | 30 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 518 : Rex Tillerson in South Asia: An American Tilt towards India? |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | The recent visit by the United States (US) Secretary of State Rex Tillerson to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India appears to have enabled Washington to launch a regional approach that privileges its relations with India in a manner that was inconceivable until now. In confronting the sources of international terror in Pakistan, encouraging India to play a larger role in Afghanistan, contesting China's quest for regional hegemony and calling on India to play a leading role in constructing a new strategic equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific, the US is hoping to build a 100-year partnership with India. While many in New Delhi remain sceptical, and many imponderables cloud the future, an American tilt towards India and New Delhi's willingness to work with Washington in the region are likely to become important factors in shaping the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific. |
| Date: | 30 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 517 : Revitalising the Indian Economy: Announcement of Public Sector Bank Recapitalisation Measures |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The Indian government announced a series of measures on 24 October 2017 designed to kick start the economy and enable public sector banks to improve their lending which has largely remained flat due to a lack of industrial demand, particularly from the manufacturing sector. The recapitalisation bonds, which have been proposed to provide additional equity capital to the public sector banks, have been hailed as a huge catalyst that could stimulate the growth of the green shoots of demand in the country. Also announced are some measures to boost road-building activity which can provide a major fillip to employment generation. |
| Date: | 30 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 516 : India and the European Union – Poised for Partnership Scale-up |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | On 6 October 2017, the 14th annual summit between India and the European Union (EU) took place in New Delhi, India, with the stated aim of deepening their strategic partnership and advancing collaboration in India’s priority sectors for growth. Aside from reaffirming shared principles and values, three important pacts were signed. The India-EU relationship has evolved gradually over 55 years of diplomatic engagement. In 2004, India became a strategic partner of the EU and the two sides launched free trade negotiations in 2007. However, stalled negotiations led to an impasse in 2013 and a summit was held in 2016 after a four-year hiatus. Following the meeting in 2017, there is reason for cautious optimism about putting the partnership to work. |
| Date: | 26 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 515 : The Rohingya Crisis: Potentials for Possible Changes in the Regional Security Architecture |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The Rohingya issue has placed Bangladesh in a difficult situation. Dhaka cannot urge the displaced persons to go back to Myanmar of their own free will. At the same time, it cannot host them for too long a period without damaging its own economy substantially. The challenge for Bangladesh is to be able to muster sufficient pressure on Myanmar to create a situation whereby the Rohingyas could return home in safety and live with honour and security. The efforts in this regard could alter the ramifications of the regional politicodiplomatic architecture in South Asia. |
| Date: | 23 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 514 : Income Poverty in Sri Lanka: Beyond Traditional ‘Poor’ and ‘Non-Poor’ Classification |
| Author/s: | Ravindra Deyshappriya |
| Abstract: | Income poverty in Sri Lanka, which is measured by the official poverty line, has declined significantly over time. However, this line, which broadly defines the poverty status as the ‘poor’ and ‘non-poor’, does not address the huge disparities within each of these two groups. This paper classifies the poverty status in Sri Lanka into four categories – the ‘extreme poor’, ‘poor’, ‘vulnerable non-poor’ and ‘non-poor’. It is found that 0.2 per cent of the households fall into the ‘extreme poor’ category while 16.3 per cent are in the ‘vulnerable non-poor’ group – they are more likely to fall back into poverty due to small shocks. Therefore, poverty reduction strategies, which target the broadly classified ‘poor group’, may not be sufficient and appropriate to lift those in the ‘extreme poor’ group out of poverty. Additional safety-net programmes are necessary to ensure the well-being of the ‘vulnerable non-poor’. |
| Date: | 22 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 513 : India’s Regional Role: Perceptions, Potentials and Prognosis |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | India’s regional role reflects a gap in its ability to find fruition in consonance with its potentials and capabilities. This gap needs to be closed, and those in power in New Delhi need to address this issue in right earnest. |
| Date: | 22 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 512 : India’s Cabinet Reshuffle: Modi Looks Ahead to the 2019 Elections |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | India’s latest Cabinet reshuffle had two significant features. The first was the elevation of four younger ministers, including Nirmala Sitharaman, to Cabinet rank. The second was the induction of four former bureaucrats into the Union ministry. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be hoping that these changes might improve governance and help him reap dividends in the 2019 national elections. |
| Date: | 12 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 511 : Donald Trump’s Afghanistan Policy Statement – Economic Implications for India |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | In his comprehensive statement on America’s policy towards Afghanistan on 22 August 2017, United States (US) President Donald Trump outlined his country’s efforts to bring an end to its nearly 16-year-long war in Afghanistan. Among other things, the president called for a more proactive involvement by India and Pakistan in the US’ strategy towards Afghanistan. While Trump’s focus on these two South Asian countries will likely have considerable impact on geopolitics in the Indian subcontinent, might it also have any economic implications for India? This paper argues that the economic implications for India will be marginal, at any rate, in the short term. |
| Date: | 6 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 510 : Tamil Nadu in a Muddle: The Politics of Admissions to Medical Colleges |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | The Indian State of Tamil Nadu opposed the National Entrance Eligibility Test (NEET), which was introduced this year as a requirement to determine the eligibility for admissions to private and government medical colleges in the country. In doing so, the State has isolated itself as well as drawn attention to the weaknesses in its school curriculum. This is likely to anger parents who feel disadvantaged over the State's lack of governance which has resulted in their children not being able to enter medical colleges. The NEET saga could have severe repercussions for the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Tamil Nadu government at the elections in 2019. |
| Date: | 6 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 509 : GST Collections in India: Beyond the Government’s Projection |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The Goods and Services Tax (GST) was on the anvil for many years in India. However, the present Central Government, headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, finally persuaded all the constituent State governments in India to accept the introduction of the tax with effect from 1 July 2017. It must also be recognised, much to the credit of the Central Government, that the conceptualisation and the implementation of a very complicated tax structure have been smooth, without any glitches so far. It is now becoming clear that the initial fears of a decline in tax revenue mobilisation, especially for the States, are being set to rest. The first release of the early data pertaining to the GST collections appears to be very encouraging, indeed better than the expectations of the Central Government. |
| Date: | 5 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 508 : Triple Talaq in India: Religious versus Gender Issues |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | In August 2017, the Indian Supreme Court delivered its verdict on the triple talaq (divorce), stating that it violates the state's Constitution. The judgement can be seen as a victory for a Muslim woman's individual rights versus the Muslim community's collective customs and traditions. However, despite the decision, it remains unclear if the ruling will allow the Supreme Court to differentiate in the same manner in the future. It is also to be seen how the ruling will affect the practice of triple talaq in India because of the gap between the legal aspects of the Supreme Court's decision and the customary practice. |
| Date: | 4 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 507 : Appointment of a New Chief Minister in Nagaland: An End to the Power Struggle? |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | The appointment of T R Zeliang as NagalandÔÇÖs new Chief Minister (CM) on 22 July 2017 was an unexpected decision.1 He was chosen by Governor P B Acharya after the latter dismissed the CM Sh??rhozelie Liezietsu for skipping the floor test of a special session of the legislative assembly three days earlier.2 He had been facing criticism from some party members for picking his son Khriehu Liezietsu as his advisor with cabinet status and salary. The GovernorÔÇÖs decision may be seen as a prudent move that might quell the disquiet within the ruling Nagaland PeopleÔÇÖs Front and set the stage for an orderly conduct of the 2018 legislative assembly elections. |
| Date: | 21 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 506 : A New Chapter in Indo-German Relations |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's two-day visit to Germany on 29 and 30 May 2017 to meet German Chancellor Angela Merkel was an opportunity for the two partners to explore ways to further cement economic and trade relations. The two leaders signed a dozen agreements. The need to resume free trade talks between India and the European Union (EU) was also included in the agenda. India and the EU have been unable to reach a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) despite enduring negotiations since 2007. The FTA is aimed to increase investments, lower tariffs on goods and enable trade in services between the two sides. |
| Date: | 16 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 505 : India’s New President and Vice-President: The Elections and their Impact |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The recently-held presidential and vice-presidential polls in India were a formality, given that the ruling National Democratic Alliance had the numbers in its favour. However, the margins of victory illustrated the disunity in the opposition ranks and could be seen as a precursor to the 2019 national elections. |
| Date: | 10 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 504 : The New Hambantota Port Deal in Sri Lanka: A Template for the Belt and Road Initiative Projects? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The Sri Lankan Parliament recently approved a new operational structure for the controversial Hambantota port. This structure has created separate joint venture companies to manage commercial and non-commercial functions that have Chinese and Sri Lankan businesses as the majority partners in both functions. This paper examines whether the model can become a template for future projects in the Chinaled Belt and Road Initiative that, while promising more resources for regional infrastructure, has also given rise to serious geostrategic concerns. |
| Date: | 3 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 503 : The Disqualification of Nawaz Sharif: Implications for Democracy in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been disqualified by the country's Supreme Court. The democratic system will continue, with his younger brother Shahbaz Sharif set to be elected a prime minister in due course. Yet, the ruling may weaken the consolidation of democracy in Pakistan by upending elected institutions and encouraging the flow of power to unelected ones. |
| Date: | 2 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 502 : The Shifting Sands of Bihar Politics |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy and Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | As the saying goes, politics is the art of the possible. The latest example of this in the relentless politics of power in India is the re-emergence of the outgoing Chief Minister of the Indian state of Bihar, Nitish Kumar, as his own successor at the head of a new government with a different political complexion. This followed the collapse of his original 'grand alliance' (Mahagatbandhan) which consisted of his Janata Dal (United), the Rashtriya Janata Dal and the Congress in the State Legislative Assembly. Nitish has been able to form the new government in Bihar with the help of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the governing party at the Centre and an opponent of the now-defunct 'grand alliance'. |
| Date: | 28 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 501 : The G20 Hamburg Summit: Declaration, Divisions and Dividends |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The annual Group of Twenty (G20) meeting at Hamburg took place in the backdrop of largescale anti-globalisation protests. Notwithstanding its commitment to globalisation, this paper argues that the G20 Leaders Declaration revealed the prevalence of contrasting positions on the subject within the Group and the challenges it will face in moving forward in the future. The paper also highlights the changed perceptions on China within the Group since the last meeting and the takeaways for India. |
| Date: | 13 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 500 : The Qatar Crisis in the Gulf: Implications for South Asian Migrant Workers |
| Author/s: | Md Mizanur Rahman |
| Abstract: | On 5 June 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates cut their diplomatic relations and trade ties with Qatar. The Saudi-led diplomatic boycott soon had the support of nine countries, including the Maldives. The air, sea and land embargo on Qatar has directly affected the movement of people and goods to and from the country. This has had an adverse impact on South Asian migrant workers who make up around 70 per cent of the 2.7 millionstrong population in Qatar. In addition to having to deal with the rising cost of basic foodstuff, these workers live in the constant fear of losing their jobs and not receiving their salaries, due to the slowdown of the construction sector. At the same time, they are confronted with higher prices for air travel back to their home countries. All these factors have resulted in the migrant workers- inability to remit money to their families. Their plight will further worsen if the Gulf leadership does not find a solution to the crisis soon |
| Date: | 10 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 499 : The 2017 Malabar Exercises – Testing Waters |
| Author/s: | Benjamin Chin |
| Abstract: | The 21st edition of the Malabar exercises are taking place in the Bay of Bengal from 7 to 17 July 2017 amidst tensions along the disputed China-India-Bhutan land border in the Himalayas, and in the context of the growing Chinese naval presence in the Indian Ocean in the past few months. The major highlights of the exercise are the emphasis on submarine hunting and the debut participation of India's INS Vikramaditya aircraft carrier and Japan's Izumo-class helicopter carrier. As with the past editions, the Malabar exercises this year provide an opportunity for India to deepen ties and enhance its operational compatibility with those of the other maritime powers, the United States and Japan. However, this year's Malabar exercises are of particular significance, especially with regard to China. |
| Date: | 10 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 498 : Challenging Times in Sri Lanka: A Reality Check for Maithripala Sirisena |
| Author/s: | Amresh Gunasingham |
| Abstract: | A slowing economy, ballooning debt and new political challenges, which include an increasingly agitated electorate and divided party loyalties, have put the spotlight on Sri Lanka's President Maithripala Sirisena and his coalition government. The government is struggling to deal with these issues and there are no clear signs yet on how the president intends to address these mid-term issues. |
| Date: | 5 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 497 : The Goods and Services Tax in India: Impressions and Realities |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India's indirect taxation will experience a remarkable change with effect from 1 July 2017 with the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST). This paper attempts to correct some misperceptions about the GST, including its coverage and structure. It also highlights the possibility of a temporary slowdown in economic growth as the country adjusts to the implementation of the GST. |
| Date: | 3 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 496 : Farmer Protests in India: Opposition Lacks Strength to Challenge the Government |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Two Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-ruled states of Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh in India have witnessed farmers protests and deaths in June 2017. Although the issue of agrarian distress has the potential to hurt Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP-led government, a fragmented opposition camp, inclusive of the Congress, does not seem to be in a position to effectively mobilise itself over this issue. |
| Date: | 27 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 495 : Surprise Nominee for India’s Presidential Poll Seems a Sure Winner |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has surprised many by choosing a Dalit leader, Ram Nath Kovind, as its nominee for the election of the country’s fourteenth president. The Dalits, consisting of former ‘untouchables’ are often seen as the country’s most-disadvantaged social group. A seasoned lawyer, a two-term Member of Parliament and Governor of the Indian State of Bihar at the time he was chosen as the BJP’s presidential nominee, Kovind has the potential of being a winning candidate in the election due to take place on 17 July 2017. The entire political discourse now seems to centre on the fact that he is a Dalit leader. Indeed, the BJP’s announcement seems to have won general acclaim, and the arithmetic of the Electoral College also appears to weigh in his favour. The last date for filing nominations is 28 June 2017. The Lok Sabha Secretary General will be the Electoral Officer. Nominations have begun to be filed. |
| Date: | 22 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 494 : The Asia-Africa Growth Corridor: Why are India and Japan Interested? |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | Japan and India plan to join hands in the creation of infrastructure and digital connectivity in Africa through the Asia-Africa Growth Corridor initiative. They have strong strategic and economic interest for doing so. However, they would need to overcome several challenges, ranging from the different levels of growth in Africa and the need for greater India-Japanese coordination on an Africa strategy to the China factor in Africa's development. |
| Date: | 21 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 493 : Indo-United States Relations at a Cusp |
| Author/s: | Sumit Ganguly |
| Abstract: | Significant progress has taken place in Indo-United States (US) relations over the past two decades. However, they may be at a turning point because of some potential policy shifts toward India under the Donald Trump administration. As India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits the US, these policy differences will need to be handled with some care to ensure that the progress that has been achieved is not fritted away. |
| Date: | 20 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 492 : A New Wave of Agrarian Disquiet in India |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | Despite a bountiful harvest in 2016, the farmers in some Indian states such as Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra have been driven to despair that has even led some of them to commit suicide. The debt burden of Indian farmers has been an issue recurring over the years, irrespective of good or deficient monsoon rainfall. The government's actions seem to have been slow in coming, though the problems are well-known. It is felt that the state and central governments will have to show greater alacrity to alleviate the problems of the farmers and ensure that they are not put to repeated distress |
| Date: | 19 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 491 : New Ambience in China-India Talks: A Straw in the Wind? |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The meeting between India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Astana on 9 June 2017, ahead of New Delhi's admission as a full-fledged member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), has been viewed positively by both sides. Although the talks took place under the cloud of India's refusal to endorse China's global-connectivity mission - the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) - the two leaders discussed the idea of Sino-Indian cooperation for a stable multipolar world order. However, the China-India-Pakistan contestation is far from over. Admitting Islamabad too as a new member, the SCO has endorsed China's BRI, which seems to favour Pakistan in its sovereignty tussle with India over a tract of land being used for a Sino-Pakistani connectivity project. |
| Date: | 14 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 490 : Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Russia Visit: Re-bolstering Economic Relations |
| Author/s: | Girija Pande |
| Abstract: | India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to India on 4 June 2017 following a six-day four-nation tour of Germany, Spain, Russia and France. Of the four stops in Europe, the visit to Russia perhaps holds the greatest significance personally for him. Since coming to power, Modi had apparently developed a great relationship with Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. However, from India’s perspective, the relationship went off course in recent times, especially due to Moscow’s close relationship with Pakistan. The visit was, therefore, an opportunity for the pair to explore ways to re-bolster economic ties between the once significant bilateral partners. |
| Date: | 7 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 489 : Kashmir Redux |
| Author/s: | Sumit Ganguly |
| Abstract: | The renewal of political violence in Kashmir does not signal a reigniting of the insurgency. Instead, it is a reflection of accumulated grievances on the part of a youthful population as a consequence of living with decades of curfews, roadblocks and everyday harassment at the hands of security forces. The problem that the Indian state confronts is not one of mere order but the restoration of normal, civic life. |
| Date: | 7 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 488 : Singapore India Maritime Bilateral Exercises 2017: Why They Matter |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The Indian and the Singaporean navies recently took part in the Singapore India Maritime Bilateral Exercises 2017. These naval exercises allowed the two navies to further hone their skills and increase their interoperability. As two nations with shared interests in the Indian Ocean, it is sine qua non that India and Singapore pool their resources to tackle both traditional and non-traditional security threats. |
| Date: | 2 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 487 : Goods and Services Tax in India – Tax Reforms for a Brighter Future? |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | The Goods and Services Tax (GST) has been hailed as a major tax reform in India to help streamline the indirect tax structure, reducing complications for businesses, apart from widening the tax base and increasing tax revenues. This brief highlights some major attributes of the GST noting a few points which may affect the economic prospects in the short run. |
| Date: | 29 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 486 : India-Canada Synergy: An Expanding Relationship |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | India's relations with Canada have been on an upward trajectory in recent years. Bilateral relations are moving towards to their potential through high-level visits, trade agreements, nuclear cooperation and people-to-people relations. This paper will explore the various areas of collaboration and how a strategic partnership is probable between the two countries. |
| Date: | 24 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 485 : Indo-Sri Lankan Relations: Moving Forward |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | Over the last two years, there has been a flurry of high-level official visits between India and Sri Lanka. In February 2015, President Maithripala Sirisena of Sri Lanka visited India followed by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who was in Sri Lanka in March 2015. Just recently, in May, Modi concluded a second visit to Sri Lanka, as did Sri Lanka's Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was in India in September 2015 and April 2017. In addition, there have been a number of ministerial meetings between the two sides. |
| Date: | 19 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 484 : Japan-India Cooperation in the Infrastructure Sector and Opportunities for Singapore |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | Japan and India are collaborating in a big way to develop India's infrastructure sector. This is an area which is critical to India maintaining or even enhancing its growth levels. As such, New Delhi is pulling out all stops to overhaul this key area. Indo-Japanese collaboration provides a unique opportunity for Singaporean companies to seek business deals in India's infrastructure sector - an opportunity too good to miss. |
| Date: | 18 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 483 : Trump and the Upending of the Global Order: An Insight |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | This article is the first of a series of papers written to develop a better understanding of how Donald Trump, elected to the United States presidency on 8 November 2016 and sworn in as America's 45th president on 20 January 2017, is likely to influence the world. The impact of his policies will be profound on the Asian continent. They will set back its rate of economic growth by slowing down the expansion in international trade. They will inhibit the movement of Asians to the world's more developed countries. They will pose serious problems over the long run because of the way the Trump administration is reacting to climate change. The main purpose for this work is to alert Asia's policymakers to the challenges they must confront because of the emergence of Trump and Trumpism in global politics. |
| Date: | 16 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 482 : A New Era in Indo-Turkish Relations |
| Author/s: | Liyana Othman |
| Abstract: | In April 2017, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?ƒan made a two-day state visit to India to discuss key bilateral issues with his counterpart, including the Kashmir issue, India's Nuclear Suppliers Group membership bid, and the strengthening of counter-terrorism, trade and economic cooperation. The visit aimed to further strengthen bilateral relations between India and Turkey. |
| Date: | 15 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 481 : New Security and Public Order Measures in Xinjiang: Concerns of Instability in CPEC’s Key Region in China |
| Author/s: | Silvia Tieri |
| Abstract: | Under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a collection of infrastructure projects is currently under construction throughout Pakistan, including the Karakoram Highway, which is expected to link Rawalpindi to Kashgar, the Uyghur cultural capital. The CPEC has, however, put the spotlight on Xinjiang, China’s Muslim majority province plagued with ethnic unrest. Beijing recently imposed several security and public order measures which are likely to further add to the instability in the province. |
| Date: | 12 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 480 : The ‘South Asia Satellite’: India’s Space Programme as a Regional Policy Tool |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The recent successful launch of the ‘South Asia Satellite’ is yet another feather in the cap of India’s space industry. From a broader outlook, India’s burgeoning space expertise can be a potentially useful instrument to enhance relations with its regional neighbours. However, by staying out, Pakistan has shown that the Indian strategy of achieving regional cooperation under Indian leadership is not going to be easy |
| Date: | 9 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 479 : The Belt and Road Initiative: Charming and Alarming Aspects |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy |
| Abstract: | While China has propagated the potential benefits of its Belt and Road Initiative, some countries are concerned about the possible consequences. |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 478 : Implications of the Xi Jinping-Donald Trump Meeting for South Asia |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | On 6 April, 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his wife arrived in Florida for a first bilateral meeting between the Chinese leader and the new American President Donald Trump. The United States (US) President hosted his guests at his private summer residence, Mar-a-Lago. The two-day meeting was heavily scrutinised for indications on the state and future of China-US relations. This is a relationship that is of great importance to South Asia, given the role of geopolitics and the strategic involvement of both in the region |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 477 : Are India and Sri Lanka Moving Closer? |
| Author/s: | Amresh Gunasingham |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka seems to be making strong overtures to repair a historically fraught relationship with its neighbour India, which is increasingly concerned over China's rising influence in the Indian Ocean region. Recent developments signify progress in India-Sri Lanka relations in the economic and political spheres. |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 476 : Challenges Ahead for Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan Politics |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has been buffeted by one crisis after another in recent times. These may have weakened him politically and caused him to be down but he is not quite out - not just yet. |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 475 : Tamil Nadu Political Muddle: Much Ado about India’s Presidential Election? |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | The unfolding political developments in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu have had much to do with the factional rivalries that broke out in the ruling party after the death of Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa in December 2016. However, there is much speculation that India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party may be orchestrating unity moves at the state level with an eye on the country's upcoming presidential election. |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 474 : The Goods and Services Tax: A New Chapter in Indian Public Finance |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India's impending transition to an indirect tax structure based on the Goods and Services Tax (GST) marks the beginning of a new era of fiscal federalism in India. This paper discusses the progress on the GST and some key aspects of its framework, and highlights the major role that states would henceforth play in determining indirect taxes in the country. |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 473 : The Public Health Foundation of India: A Case of Diminishing Room for NGOs? |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The Indian government's recent ban on foreign funding to the Public Health Foundation of India has once again brought to the forefront the contentious relationship between Indian nongovernment organisations (NGOs) and the government. This incident is yet another development in the recent narrative of the Indian government hardening its outlook towards NGOs as civil society actors. |
| Date: | 2 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 472 : Left Wing Extremism in Chhattisgarh: A Thorn in India’s Side |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The Indian state of Chhattisgarh witnessed one of its largest attacks on Indian soldiers by the Maoists in recent years. This has once again raised the question of a viable long-term solution to the issue of left wing extremism in India. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 471 : The 2019 General Election in Odisha: BJD vs. BJP? |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and many leaders of the country's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) recently visited Bhubaneswar, capital of the State of Odisha. Their objective was to prepare the ground for a successful campaign in the next State Assembly election in 2019. They hope to capitalise on the second place the party secured in the panchayat (local bodies) election held in February 2017. Despite the BJP's apparently burgeoning power base in the state, it seems difficult for the party to win the 2019 election due to the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) government's perceivably good performance in the state. However, the BJP's future in Odisha will also depend on several other factors such as the sustainability of the 'Modi wave' of popularity and the performance of the BJD government between now and the polling in 2019. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 470 : Economic Planning and Development in South Asia: ‘Walking On Two Legs’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The economy of Pakistan has achieved a modicum of vibrancy that is commendable. The initial emphasis on rapid growth has over time given way to a combination of trust in market forces, combined with the widening of the social safety net to cover the underprivileged. The author has called this policy thrust ‘walking on two legs’. However, the agriculture sector is deserving of greater focus, and its potentials are yet to be fully realized. The article briefly analyses the current global economic backdrop of the economic scene including the role of the massive Chinese investments. It argues in favour of a wider regional approach to development in South Asia, which would redound to the benefit of all concerned. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 469 : The Islamic Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Implications for Pakistan’s Security and Foreign Relations |
| Author/s: | Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Pakistan will need to be circumspect about its conduct in the Middle East. Alignment with Saudi Arabia and leadership of the military alliance may help it to regain some of the lost space in the international arena but sectarian rifts and violence may increase at home. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 468 : New Signals for Democracy: Pakistan Supreme Court’s Verdict in the Prime Minister’s Case |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | What will be the impact of the latest split-decision by Pakistan’s Supreme Court in what had come to be known as the “Panamagate case”? In the 3-2 majority judgment, the Supreme Court has ruled that Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif could not be forced out of office on the basis of the evidence presented to it concerning alleged financial misdeeds by his family as revealed by the ‘Panama documents’. Nonetheless, the Court ordered an inquiry into the financial dealings of the Prime Minister and the Sharif family. |
| Date: | 24 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 467 : Bypolls in India: Gains for the BJP amid a mixed picture |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | By-elections were held in the second week of April in 10 Assembly and two parliamentary constituencies, including Srinagar, across 10 Indian States. The results, by and large, confirmed the national strength of the Bharatiya Janata Party, but that was only part of the story. |
| Date: | 24 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 466 : “Acting- East” via the Northeast |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | India’s Northeastern region could act as its bridgehead to Southeast Asia and beyond. However, for New Delhi to reap the full advantages of the Northeast’s geographical proximity to Southeast Asia, it must do more to improve the infrastructure in this region and put the projects it is executing in neighbouring Myanmar on the fast-track. Bangladesh could also be an important part of this initiative. |
| Date: | 20 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 465 : The Regional Impact of South Korea’s Political Turmoil |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | South Korea’s President was forced to leave office by the constitutional court’s upholding of Parliament’s decision to impeach her over corruption charges involving her friend and big businesses. The constitutional court has ruled that protecting the laws of democracy and market economy is the call of a democratically elected leader. Furthermore, the successful unravelling of the political scandal marks a breakthrough in civil society activism in South Korea in exposing corrupt politicians and entrepreneurs who are seen to break the law. However, a possible political vacuum may mean that South Korea will face difficulties in dealing with the security and the politico-economic relations with its neighbouring countries like China, Russia, and Japan for a while at least. |
| Date: | 20 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 464 : Enhancing India-Malaysia Economic Ties |
| Author/s: | Liyana Othman |
| Abstract: | India and Malaysia signed 31 Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) with a value of over USD 36 billion to expand cooperation between the two nations in various areas including skills development and capacity building. The MoUs were signed during the Prime Minister of Malaysia, Najib Razak's six-day State Visit to India, in commemoration of the 60th anniversary of IndiaMalaysia diplomatic relations. |
| Date: | 11 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 463 : Merger of Public Sector Banks in India: The Imperative to Make Haste Slowly |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | The State Bank of India's latest merger of five of its subsidiaries with itself raises India's profile in the global banking sector. Within India, however, it is not yet clear whether this step marks the beginning of a game plan for consolidating public sector banking through further mergers. Nonetheless, the government needs to follow up by creating four or five banks of comparable size to be able to compete with the SBI. The dynamics of that game plan have to be shaped by the SBI experience while its timing has to be determined by the resolution of the problem of non-performing assets. |
| Date: | 11 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 462 : Signs of a New Dynamic in Pakistan-China Strategic Links |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | China has spoken about its'deepening ties' with Pakistan while participating for the first time in the military parade on the Pakistani National Day in Islamabad on 23 March 2017. This is a significant sequel to the elevation of the Sino-Pakistani 'all-weather friendship' to 'allweather strategic cooperative partnership' in April 2015. Exactly a decade earlier, the two countries had indeed signed a Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Good-Neighbourly Relations. While the Treaty has remained a rarely-discoursed bond between the two countries, China's latest move signals a new regional dynamic which should be of interest, perhaps even concern, to Pakistan's neighbours, India and Afghanistan. |
| Date: | 3 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 461 : Sino-Indian Strategic Dialogue: Exploring Potential for Cooperation |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | While there is no denying the 'friendly atmosphere' in which the first China-India Strategic Dialogue has taken place, the two sides have not bridged the gulf between their positions on a global nuclear order and a terrorism-free world order. The focus was on 'potential bilateral cooperation'and the need for a 'predictive' international situation. |
| Date: | 2 March 2017 |
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| Title: | 460 : The Indian Budget-2017-18 |
| Author/s: | S.Narayan |
| Abstract: | The finance minister presented a sober budget to the Indian Parliament on 1 February, which focuses on job creation and infrastructure spending. |
| Date: | 6 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 459 : GST Implementation in India: A Solution with Complications |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | The resolution of a contentious issue of administrative control over the implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in India, which was accomplished on 16 January 2017, appears to have paved the way for enforcing the measure by 1 July this year. However, several obstacles lie ahead. |
| Date: | 19 January 2017 |
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