| Title: | 355: Terrorism’s most devastating blow in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 16 December 2014, the Taliban attacked an army school in Peshawar and killed 132 children. In all 145 persons died. Seven terrorists - among them three Arabs, two Afghans and one Chechen - dressed in military uniform penetrated the well-guarded perimeter of the school and opened fire on the students and school personnel. By assembling an international force, the Taliban sent a powerful signal that their campaign against the Pakistani state and the country's military had wide support. According to a statement issued to the press by Muhammad Khorasani, the Taliban spokesman, the attackers were ordered to kill only those children who were from army families. "Our shura decided to target these enemies of Islam right in their homes so they can feel the pain of losing their children." |
| Date: | 23 December 2014 |
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| Title: | 354: New ‘Oil Shock’ – Impact on South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | In the 1970s, the oil - producing and exporting countries of the Middle East delivered a shock to the global economic system that had many unexpected consequences. The then - q uadrupling of the price of oil hastened a process that came to be called “globali s at ion” . It deeply affected the structure of the global economy and also produced a number of political consequences. The oil - importing developing countries were the most - affected group . Some of those who could borrow from the world’s capital markets did so t o pay the oil import bill. This created indebtedness and moved some of the countries which had borrowed massively towards default on their external obligations. Many of them turned to the International Monetary Fund for help. The Washington - based instituti on responded with aid - and - policy - reform packages that were unprecedented in its history. The Fund received additional funding from the world’s rich nations to follow through with these program me s. |
| Date: | 3 December 2014 |
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| Title: | 353: Competitive Diplomacy of India and China |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs), ISAS |
| Abstract: | India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's official visit to Australia from 16 to 18 November 2014 , besides Chinese President Xi Jinping's state visit to the same country at the same time , have reveal ed the growing relevance of both Beijing and New Delhi to the Indo - Pacific region. Surely, the two leaders were, in any case, scheduled to attend the Group of 20 (G20) summit in Brisban e on 15 and 16 November . This must have suited Australia's Prime Minister Tony Abbott in deciding to play host to Xi Jinping and Modi , on parallel tracks, after that multilateral summit. However, such a logistical nicety has been totally eclipsed by the high tone and tenor of the se simultaneous bilateral visits to Australia by Xi Jinping and Modi at this time . Relevant to these two events is a larger regional and global context that concern s China and India , albeit in different fields |
| Date: | 1 December 2014 |
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| Title: | 352: G20 Agenda and India’s Priorities: an Appraisal |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee, Visiting Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | In an age with multiple threats to multilateral economic cooperation, the progress and achievements of a G20 summit (accounting for 80% of world trade and 85% of world GDP) generate natural interest. Before we look at the developments at the recent summit in Brisbane (Australia) and implications for India, a quick look at the preceding developments may be useful. |
| Date: | 1 December 2014 |
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| Title: | 351: India-Myanmar Ties: New Hope, Old Despair |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate, ISAS |
| Abstract: | India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi made his maiden visit to Myanmar from 12 to 14 November 2014. During his visit he attended meetings of the East Asia Summit (EAS) and the India - ASEAN Summit in Myanmar's capital, Nay Pyi Taw. He also held bilateral meetings with several leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations as well as the Prime Ministers of China and Russia. He met Myanmar's President Thein Sein , the focus of their discussion centred on improving neighbourly connectivity between their countries . The two leaders also discussed the idea of setting up industrial parks along the proposed India - Myanmar - Thailand trilateral highway , beside the possibility of India investing in special economic zones in Myanmar. Modi met Myanmar's opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi as well . This was the first stop of a 10 - day three - nation tour which saw him attend the G20 Summit in Australia and make a brief visit to Fiji. |
| Date: | 1 December 2014 |
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| Title: | 350: Prime Minister Modi Expands His Team |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Nearly six months after the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government came to power in India, a much - awaited Cabinet expansion took place on 9 November 2014 with the induction of 21 new ministers. The load of some ministers has been made lighter, a few have got new responsibilities and there has also been an induction of fresh faces. Besides getting trusted ministers for key positions, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his advisers have factored in regional and electoral interests. However, Shiv Sena's wrangling with the BJP over government formation in Maharashtra cast a shadow on the cabinet expansion. The Sena, one of whose MPs was slated to be a minister, boycotted the swearing - in ceremony |
| Date: | 12 November 2014 |
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| Title: | 349: Thames to Teesta and the Himalayas |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Europe is evolving a new kind of relationship with the South Asian states. It draws upon the interactions of the past colonial era on a matrix of current international relations. This paper is an examination of this trend and covers the relationship among four factors - Europe, Bangladesh, Nepal and Bhutan. |
| Date: | 5 November 2014 |
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| Title: | 348: Pakistani Militants Strike Back |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | ho launched the terrorist attack at Wagah on Pakistan 's border with India ? The attack , the deadliest in Pakistan in about a year, occurred on 2 November 2014 , killing more than sixty people and injuring another one hundred. Was the choice of the target a warning to the Pakistani leadership not to make peace with India? Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's t hird - time P rime M inister , seemed committed to improving his country's economic relations with India. Did the well - planned operation signal the arrival in Pakistan of the ideology behind the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) ? The rise of th e ISIS " also known simply as the " Islamic State ' " had happened with a suddenness that surprised most in the world. All these are important questions not only for Pakistan but also for South Asia , but the answers will take a long - time . This incident at Wa gah needs to be looked at and studied , since it will impact not only Pakistan and Afghanistan but also India. 2 |
| Date: | 5 November 2014 |
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| Title: | 347: Jayalalithaa’s Post-Bail Options and Outlook |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The order by India’s Supreme Court , on 17 October 2014, suspending the sentence and granting bail to Ms J Jayalalitha a , former Chief Minister of the state of Tamil Nadu – in a disproportionate - assets case under the Prevention of Corruption Act – has been greeted with great jubilation all over Tamil Nadu. The S upreme Court, in granting the bail, has asked her counsel to ensure that the appeal is filed in six weeks, and has commented critically on the long time that the trial has taken |
| Date: | 21 October 2014 |
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| Title: | 346: ‘Neighbourhood First’: Modi’s Foreign Policy Mantra |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan, Research Associate, ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee used to say, “Friends can change but not neighbours who have to live together”. A country’s neighbourhood must enjoy unquestioned primacy in its foreign-policy making. This is disti nctly evident in India’s new Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s foreign policy mantra – “neighbourh ood first”. |
| Date: | 3 October 2014 |
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| Title: | 345: Indo-US ‘Spirit’ Regained |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh, Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has just compl eted a five-day visit to the United States, with wide coverage in the US and global press. Obse rvers were keen to see how Modi, who was declined a visa to enter the US in 2005 as a re sult of the riots in his home-state of Gujarat, could revitalise a relationship that was perceived to be in decline in the last few years, epitomised by the very recent arrest and strip-sear ch of a serving Indian diplomat in New York. This is in sharp contrast to the heady heights of t he bilateral relationship in 2010, when during his visit to India, US President Barack Obama and I ndia’s then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh proclaimed the US-India relationship as “the defining partnership of the 21 st century”. In the four years since then, observers of the bila teral relationship have lamented the clear gulf between expectations and delivery. |
| Date: | 3 October 2014 |
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| Title: | 344: Beyond the Japan-India Symphony of Sentiments |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs), ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 14 July 1789 when the French Prison Bastille was stormed by a mob, the incident was reported to the imperious and na?»ve monarch Louis X V I by a courtier. "What, a revolt?" Louis exclaimed in apparent disbelief. "No, Sire, a revolution" was the quiet response from the courtier, a brutal but correct prediction. When recently crowds supporting the mercur ial Imran Khan and the enigmatic Tahirul Qadri occupied the official television station in Islamabad, in furtherance of their demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, one could be forgiven for drawing parallels with that situation in Fran ce. But in reality, are there any? |
| Date: | 5 September 2014 |
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| Title: | 343: People, Power, and Politics: Confrontation Pakistan Style |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 14 July 1789 when the French Prison Bastille was stormed by a mob, the incident was reported to the imperious and na?»ve monarch Louis X V I by a courtier. "What, a revolt?" Louis exclaimed in apparent disbelief. "No, Sire, a revolution" was the quiet response from the courtier, a brutal but correct prediction. When recently crowds supporting the mercur ial Imran Khan and the enigmatic Tahirul Qadri occupied the official television station in Islamabad, in furtherance of their demand for the resignation of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, one could be forgiven for drawing parallels with that situation in Fran ce. But in reality, are there any? |
| Date: | 3 September 2014 |
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| Title: | 342: Pakistan’s Democracy Dilemma |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Democracy gets established only with practice. If any proof is needed for this proposition, Pakistan’s leaders and its people need to look just across the border – at India. India was born with a considerably more political maturity than was the case with its sibling, Pakistan. It had a well-developed political party that had not only fought for independence but had also defined what an independent India would look like. Unlike the Congress Party, Pakistan’s Muslim League was a one-issue party – the establishment of an independent state for the Muslim community of British India. Once a part of that dream was realised, the party drifted and was lost in the political wilderness. India, on other hand, moved quickly to establish a political order. It appeared, in May 2013 – when the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) won a convincing victory in the elections and assumed the reins of power from the rival Pakistan People’s Party that was allowed to complete its full five-year term – Pakistan too was headed towards political stability. But that has not been the case so far. |
| Date: | 2 September 2014 |
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| Title: | 341: Is Pakistan Sliding Towards a Coup? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | In wondering which way Pakistan is headed I am reminded of a conversation I had with General Abdul Waheed Kakar in July 1993. He was then Pakistan's Chief of Army Staff and had forced President Ghulam Ishaq Khan and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to resign from their respective offices. An interim government was appointed with Moeen Qureshi, former Senior Vice President at the World Bank, as Prime Minister. I was made the new prime minister's economic advisor. Recounting what had happened a month earlier, the General said that "two senior-most executives of the government, the president and prime minister, were behaving as school kids. I had to come in as a monitor and expelled both of them". It does not seem that the political system has matured much in the 20-year sordid period since then. Once again the army has been called in to arbitrate a dispute between the government and one noisy section of the opposition. |
| Date: | 2 September 2014 |
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| Title: | 340: Pakistan: Moving Towards a Solution |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | There is growing frustration in Pakistan that the leaders of the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz), the governing party in Islamabad, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) led by Imran Khan and the Pakistani Awami Tehreek (PAT) led by the cleric Tahirul Qadri have not found a way to resolve their differences. The agitation started on 14 August 2014, the country's Independence Day anniversary, has continued for two weeks. The PTI has six demands on the table; the PAT two. The only thing common between the two sets of demand is the call for the resignation of the "Sharif brothers" - Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz Sharif. The brothers owe their positions to their victories in the elections of May 2013. |
| Date: | 29 August 2014 |
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| Title: | 339: What India’s By-Elections tell Us |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | After a national election that was held in nine phases over several weeks there is something of a poll fatigue in India. But the electoral cycle never really ceases in India and there is hardly a month that goes by without an election of some sort. The latest round of elections held on 21 August was not part of the normal electoral cycle, but one necessitated by either the death of an incumbent or the seat having been vacated for some other reason. What made the by-elections significant was that 18 seats spread across the states of Bihar, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and Karnataka went to polls. The results, announced on 25 August, were disappointing for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which will soon complete 100 days in government at the Centre. The BJP and its allies won eight seats while the Congress and regional parties won 10. |
| Date: | 29 August 2014 |
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| Title: | 338:Is Imran Khan Losing Political Traction |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The twin marches led respectively by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and Tahirul Qadri's Pakistani Awami Tehreek will undoubtedly result in a number of unintended consequences. All of them will be negative. The first relates to the role of the military in politics. Just when it appeared that the armed forces might have finally returned to the barracks, the two long marches have brought them back to the policy making table. Second, the marches may interrupt, if not entirely halt, the slow move towards the establishment of a representative and reasonably inclusive political order. This began to happen with the elections of 2008 when a regime led by the military allowed the transfer of power to the political parties it could have otherwise influenced. This process of political change was quickened by the elections five years later. |
| Date: | 25 August 2014 |
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| Title: | 337: Pakistan: Populism and Real Politics |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The marchers under the banners of two parties'the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the Pakistani Awami Tehrik (PAT)'didn't get very far from Lahore as the sun set on 14 August 2014, the country's Independence Day anniversary. As with so many other targets the two political groups had set for themselves, this too didn't yield the expected results. The two parties came up with the idea of a "million-man march" to focus on their very different and seemingly irreconcilable goals. Imran Khan, chairman of PTI, wanted to topple the government headed by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and have a mid-term election held which he hoped to win. Tahir ul Qadri, the Sufi from Canada and the head of PAT, on the other hand, wanted to topple the system, not just the man who was heading it. Both wanted change to serve their different purposes; and in the process they brought the country to the edge of yet another political abyss. |
| Date: | 18 August 2014 |
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| Title: | 336: Modi’s India in the WTO: Politics Trumps Economics |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The serene ripples of Lake Geneva in no way reflected the waves that were being created this summer within the headquarters of the World Trade Organization (WTO) located at its shores. These were being caused by the policy or at least the negotiating strategy employed by the new nationalist government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India. Single-handedly his representatives blocked the passage of a Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA), to the dismay of many of the world’s rich and powerful countries, as well as a number of large emerging nations. According to some supportive analysts, the TFA would have added US $1 trillion to the global economy and created 21 million jobs. |
| Date: | 1 August 2014 |
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| Title: | 335: Narendra Modi’s Visit to Bhutan: A Meeting of Friendly Minds |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Setting at rest speculation about where Narendra Modi might go for his first foreign trip as India’s Prime Minister, he visited Bhutan on 15 and 16 June 2014. Briefing the media before the visit, India’s Foreign Secretary Sujatha Singh said, “Our relations with Bhutan are unique and especially warm. Our historical and cultural linkages make us natural friends and partners” and the “Prime Minister’s visit reflects the high priority that Government of India attaches to its relations with Bhutan and to good neighbourly relations in our South Asian neighbourhood”. Earlier, heads of governments of all the South Asian countries had been invited to Mr Modi’s swearing-in ceremony, marking the new government’s intention to focus on building friendly relations with India’s immediate neighbours. |
| Date: | 24 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 334: The RCEP Negotiations and India |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | India's current trade negotiations have three agreements as top priorities. Two of these " the India-ASEAN services agreement and the bilateral trade and investment agreement with the European Union (EU) " are at advanced stages. The India-ASEAN services agreement is a 'done' deal and should be signed soon unless unexpected difficulties emerge. Discussions on the EU-India agreement that were stalled last year should also commence soon. Despite being discussed for more than five years, both sides are yet to reach consensus on greater market access in services, liberalisation of government procurement markets, management of intellectual property and tariffs on automobiles. The new Indian government, hopefully, will resume negotiations with the objective of concluding them early. Finally, the third agreement, where India needs to participate constructively in the ongoing negotiations, is the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). |
| Date: | 24 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 333: India and Afghanistan: A Deepening Defence Engagement |
| Author/s: | Jayant Singh, Research Assistant, ISAS |
| Abstract: | In a clear message to the incoming Afghan Government, India has decided to step up its defence engagement with Afghanistan. According to media reports, the Indian Government recently reached a long-term agreement with Russia to supply arms to the Afghan National Security Force (ANSF). Under the terms of the agreement, the military equipment will be sourced from Russia and will be paid for by New Delhi. Initial military supplies will include small arms and ammunition but could eventually lead to the transfer of heavy artillery, tanks and even combat helicopters. |
| Date: | 17 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 332: Pakistan at the Centre of Muslim World’s Convulsion |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Muslim world is once again in turmoil. The Taliban struck Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport on 9 June 2014 and occupied it for several hours. The intruders were ultimately overpowered and killed. All of them were reported to belong to the Uzbekistan Islamic Front, an outlawed group that wants to turn the Central Asian nation into an Islamic state. Its objectives are similar to those of the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). This attack on the airport put an end to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s strategy of solving the problem of extremism by negotiating peace with the TTP. A couple of days after the episode in Karachi, Sunni extremists in Iraq overran Mosul, Tikrit and other towns in the area, putting the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki under great pressure. Panicking over these developments, United States President Barack Obama seemed ready to jettison a doctrine he had laid out a few days earlier during the commencement address at the Military Academy |
| Date: | 17 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 331: Bangladesh: Six Months after the Elections |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury. Principal Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Awami-League led Government of Sheikh Hasina in Bangladesh received a new lease of life in the elections of 5 January 2014. Opinion polls were predicting a sweep by the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), but the latter boycotted the elections, somewhat inexplicably, on the argument that these could not be held „freely and fairly‟ under an incumbent Awami League-led coalition. Unsurprisingly, Hasina‟s Awami League won by a walk-over. Consequently, the BNP lost its chance of being either in government or in opposition, a double whammy. Nor has its threats to bring the Hasina Government down from the streets come to pass, since somewhat exhausted from the excitement of last year‟s political turmoil, the weary Bangladeshi, who tends to be politically hyperactive, seems to have chosen to divert attention to other aspects of life. So Hasina, who began rather tentatively, gradually has been able to consolidate her position and that of her party. Barring unforeseen events, she seems set to be there for the long haul. |
| Date: | 13 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 330: Deciphering China’s Oil-Rig Move in South China Sea |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, Research Associate, ISAS |
| Abstract: | China's recent move to station one of its oil rigs in the disputed territory in the South China Sea has flared up tensions once again in the Asia-Pacific. More importantly, it has ruptured relationships, and cast doubts among some of the ASEAN countries about Beijing's recent announcements of friendship and good neighbourliness. The deployment of the rig has further fuelled the China threat discourse in Asia. |
| Date: | 4 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 329: Managing Inflation: Modi Government’s Biggest Economic Challenge |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) & Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Controlling inflation, particularly food prices, is one of the biggest challenges facing the Modi Government in India. Runaway food inflation was a key factor contributing to the electorate's unhappiness with the previous Congress-led government. The new government is expected to deliver decisively in this regard. Its success in taming inflation will be critical in ensuring its long-term sustenance and credibility with the electorate. |
| Date: | 4 June 2014 |
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| Title: | 328: Counterterrorism in South Asia: ‘Low Hanging Fruits of Cooperation’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | South Asia is a cradle of ancient civilisation where 20% of the global population currently reside. Their ethos is intensely pluralistic, and at times even chaotically so. But like any other part of our globe, it is not free of the scourge of terrorism. What is significant, indeed striking, about South Asian communities is the consensus that while terrorism must be firmly addressed and eliminated, such actions must be undertaken within the broad parameters of the rule of law and justice. This is where the judges, prosecutors and police officers of the region are expected, indeed, required to play such an important role. |
| Date: | 15 May 2014 |
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| Title: | 327: A Poll-Time Indian Narrative |
| Author/s: | Mr Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate, ISAS and Mr Jayant Singh, Research Assistant, ISAS |
| Abstract: | With India holding the largest democratic exercise in the world right now, some of the settled patterns in Indian politics seem poised for change. New leaders having taken over the reins in India's major political parties, amid a plethora of regional blocs, the 2014 general election to the Lok Sabha (the powerful Lower House of Parliament) promises a fresh Indian narrative. On the campaign trail, India's political parties have tried to frame the debate with a view to discredit each other's opponents in partisan ways. Staking claim to power at the Centre, the national helm of affairs, after a decade in opposition, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has been quick to focus on the corruption scandals, price rise and economic failures under the outgoing Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) regime. The Congress, for its part, has cautioned against the 'communal' brand of politics practised by the BJP-Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) combine. As the election runs its course both parties have articulated their future strategies for the country in their respective election manifestos. |
| Date: | 12 May 2014 |
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| Title: | 326: The Election Scene in Uttar Pradesh |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The nine-phase Indian national elections, which began on 7 April 2014 with the results due on 16 May, are at their mid-way stage. While there will be intense contests for most of the 543 seats in the Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament), all eyes are on Uttar Pradesh (UP), where the first phase of polls was held on 10 April and the last will be on 12 May, the final day of polling. UP, IndiaÔÇÖs largest state with a population of over 200 million, sends 80 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha, making it crucial to government-formation in Delhi. |
| Date: | 23 April 2014 |
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| Title: | 325: The Afghan Election: A New Beginning? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The third election under the current Afghan Constitution was held on 5 April 2014. The question most often asked reflected nervousness on the part of both the Afghan administration as well as the Western powers that had a deep concern over the final outcome of the poll. Were the needed lessons learned from the 2009 election which was widely believed to have been rigged in favour of the incumbent President, Hamid Karzai? This time there was anxiety not only about the security situation but also about the logistics involved. The list of voters was initially developed in 2004, the first presidential election held under the new Constitution. For 2009 and 2014, the original list was simply topped up by adding the names of those who had become eligible voters in the meantime. "The authorities estimate that there were as many as 20 million valid registration cards before the start of the top-up exercise," one Western diplomat was quoted as saying. "That does not include the rumoured or surmised up to 5 million voter-registration cards that had been forged in Pakistan and Iran during the 2004-2005 cycle". There were rumours that forged cards were being sold in the market at between US$ 2 and US$ 5 per piece. |
| Date: | 9 April 2014 |
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| Title: | 324: Indian Elections – Welfare Economics versus the Market |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | There appears to be considerable interest in the outcome of the ongoing elections to the Lok Sabha (the powerful Lower House of Parliament) in India. The results are likely to be announced by 17 May 2014, and the fierce battle between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)- led led alliance and the Congress alliance would have concluded by that time. In the international media, the Economist and the New York Times have come out strongly against the candidature of Narendra Modi of the BJP for the post of Prime Minister, accusing him of condoning the riots against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002, in his first term as Chief Minister there. English newspapers in India, including The Hindu, are critical of him. Nongovernmental organisations and activists, such as Arundhati Roy, have written strongly against him. Even newspapers in Singapore have been cautious about evaluating him even while recognising the economic performance of Gujarat. The Congress and its allies continue to harp on the secularism versus communalism theme, with Mr Rahul Gandhi of the Congress alleging that there would be communal riots if the BJP were to come to power now. There are also a host of regional parties, seeking to consolidate gains in their own states and hoping that the emerging coalition government at the Centre would enable them to participate in governance and power. As of today, the odds appear to be in favour of a strong BJP-led government consisting of a few coalition partners, but the Indian electorate has often proved to be unpredictable. |
| Date: | 9 April 2014 |
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| Title: | 323: Implementation Deficit in Northeast India |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The development of Northeast India has become one of the expressed objectives of India’s Look East Policy, and the intention to increasingly look East through the Northeast is apparent. However, despite the intention and the announcement of several projects, mainly connectivity infrastructure, to allow for greater integration with India’s eastern neighbours, little has taken off the ground. While the shift in focus initially raised expectations, the inaction so far is leading to frustration. This was an inference that was palpable at a recent workshop held at Shillong, Meghalaya (India), organised by the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), Singapore, in collaboration with the Indian Institute of Management (IIM)-Shillong and the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI). Similar sentiments were echoed at the Delhi Dialogue VI. |
| Date: | 26 March 2014 |
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| Title: | 322: Pakistan Selling Family Silver: Hard Times Make Privatisation Necessary |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Consultant, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) government, under Mian Nawaz Sharif, Pakistan's first three-times Prime Minister, has set in motion a process leading to the time-bound privatisation of 65 public sector enterprises (PSEs) in two tranches. The privatisation of these units is also amongst the conditions for the release of International Monetary Fund's US$ 6.7 billion stabilisation package for the next three years. |
| Date: | 5 March 2014 |
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| Title: | 321: Northeast India-Myanmar: Search for Cooperation and New Approaches |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The eager expectations and hopes of the people of Myanmar belie the fragile peace that exists in the country. There is immense desire to take the relationships with neighbouring countries a step further; and India is a country with which there is perceivably tremendous unrealised potential. Developing the infrastructure to enable greater people-to-people connectivity and trade between the Northeast Region (NER) of India and western Myanmar is of particular interest within Myanmar. The Indian Government's own desire to open the NER as a way of creating economic dynamism that would take the region forward into a new development paradigm coincides with the political reforms in Myanmar, giving both countries a larger canvas for their relationship. Yet, this is a complex region with shared security and development challenges; cooperation of both sides can bring windfall benefits to the lesser developed regions in the two countries. |
| Date: | 27 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 320: Upazila Elections in Bangladesh: Is It a Road to Political Stability? |
| Author/s: | Md Mizanur Rahman, Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh is a democratic republic with a unicameral parliament called Jatiya Sangsad in Bengali and 'House of the Nation' in English. The 300 members of parliament are directly elected by universal adult suffrage for five years. The head of state is the president, who is indirectly elected by members of the parliament. The president appoints the leader of the majority party as prime minister and head of government. Bangladesh has a unitary form of government in which all of the governing power resides in a centrali s ed government. For administrative convenience , the country is divided into six d ivisions ; and each d ivision is subdivided into z ilas or d istricts and u pazilas or s ub - di stricts. There are 64 administrative districts ; and below the district level there are 487 upazilas or sub - districts. |
| Date: | 27 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 319: India’s Interim Budget: Credit and Concerns |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | In India, a vote on account is normally considered to be an interim accounting measure that permits government departments to continue to function at the same level as at the time of the vote, without the introduction of new programmes or projects. The latter would require debate and approval of the parliament in a full debate. In India, with the general election hardly a couple of months away now, the vote on account is merely a roll-over of sanctions for expenditure for the first four months of the new year beginning April 2014 – until a new parliament and government are in place. At the same time, the vote on account gives a peep into the state of public finances, and in a way, indicates the opening balances of accounts for the next government. This year’s exercise, placed before the Indian Parliament on 17 February 2014, was no different. |
| Date: | 25 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 318: Ankara Summit: A Possible Road to Afghan Peace? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Americans are firm in their commitment to pull their combat troops out of Afghanistan by the end of December 2014. As that deadline approaches, there is considerable diplomatic activity aimed at steadying the situation in that war-torn country. The favoured approach is to involve the countries in Afghanistan's immediate neighbourhood in helping the nation deal with what promises to be a difficult period of transition. The most recent effort of this type was made in February 2014 in a summit held in Ankara, Turkey, involving the host, as well as Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, as this paper suggests, a multilateral effort must involve a larger group of countries to obtain the desired results, and the effort should go beyond addressing the role of Islam in Afghanistan's political system. |
| Date: | 19 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 317: Chinese Navy in Eastern Indian Ocean: Implications for Delhi and Jakarta |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Visiting Research Professor, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Chinese Navy's combat exercises in the waters adjacent to Indonesia at the end of January 2014 underline Beijing's assertion of its maritime rights backed by a capacity to project force far beyond its shores. These exercises also highlight the urgency of strong maritime security cooperation between India and Indonesia that have traditionally claim ed a special interest in the promotion of peace and stability in the Eastern Indian Ocean. |
| Date: | 13 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 316 : 13 February 2014 |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs), ISAS |
| Abstract: | By affirming “the indispensable U.S.-India partnership”, US Secretary of State John Kerry is signalling that the recent turbulence in the atmospherics of this equation has quietened now. Such a signal of return to normality was the hallmark of the top American diplomat‟s message2 to mark the 64th anniversary of India‟s Republic Day on 26 January 2014. India‟s External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, too, has, on 23 January, risen above the recently vitiated bilateral atmosphere. These positive signals followed a meeting between Mr Kerry and Mr Khurshid on the sidelines of the Geneva-2 Conference on Syria at Montreux on 22 January. |
| Date: | 5 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 315: Abe’s Visit to India: The Strategic Implications |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh, Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Japan's Prime Minister Shinzo Abe attracted much international attention as India's guest of honour at this year's Republic Day celebrations in New Delhi. A large part of final joint statement issued at the end of discussions between Mr Abe and India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh featured enhanced cooperation between the two countries in the economic domain. However, the joint statement also pointed to significant expansion of ties between the two countries in the defence-security realm. This potential expansion of defence-security relations has three major strategic implications. |
| Date: | 5 February 2014 |
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| Title: | 314: Abe in India: High on Loans, Low on Trade |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Partnerships & Programmes) and Senior Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe visited India from 25 to 27 January 2014 at a time when both countries are hunting for solutions for improving their medium-term growth prospects. ‘Abenomics’, as Prime Minister Abe’s economic policies are popularly referred to, succeeded in imparting a push to economic activity in Japan. Nikkei – the benchmark index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange – outpaced other indices in the region by touching a six-year high towards the end of 2013. The year saw Japanese GDP growing by 1.7 per cent, which was higher than the collective rate of growth of 1.3 per cent for the GDP of advanced economies. Among the G8 countries, Japan’s GDP growth last year was lower than only that of the US (1.9 per cent), while being on par with the UK’s and Canada’s.2 But the growth-inducing effects of the expansive monetary and fiscal policies taken by Abe last year might be shortlived with GDP growth expected to remain at 1.7 per cent in 2014 and moderate to 1.0 per cent in 2015 as the stimuli peter out. |
| Date: | 28 January 2014 |
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| Title: | 313: Bangladesh: Slow Settling of Post-Poll Dust |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Any swirling dust will eventually settle, and the storm that the elections of 5 January 2014 generated in Bangladesh is already beginning to subside. The polls saw a level of violence never witnessed on such occasions before. The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the hustings (a decision they might rue) as their demand of an apolitical government to host the event was ignored. They took to the streets, and the Jamaat-e-Islami, banned from participation in the polls for its extreme religious predilections, acting as their sword-arm. Voter turn-out was abysmally low for a Bangladeshi election. The absence of any international observers lent credence to its questionable credibility. In any case, 153 candidates of a Parliament of 300 members were already returned uncontested. Not much contest was confronted by the remaining candidates. The Awami League under the stewardship of Sheikh Hasina romped home to victory amidst the expressed despair of many, including of most western powers, who viewed the results as neither fish, flesh, fowl nor good red herring. |
| Date: | 20 January 2014 |
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| Title: | 312: Afghanistan – The Endless Challenge |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Consultant, ISAS |
| Abstract: | Developments in Afghanistan, leading into the New Year point to the increasing distrust between Afghan President Hamid Karzai and the United States. The latest rift relates to Kabul’s plan to release 88 high - profile detainees , held at Bagram ; and this has particularly incensed the Americans. Their release, according to th e two Republican S enators, who recently visited Kabul, would have a “negative impact” on US - Afghan relations. The Afghans have reneged on their commitment to release the detainees only if they were to be found innocent by the court, claims the US. Mr Kar zai has instead constituted a three - man Afghan Review Board to assess the charges against the detainees. Following an official protest by General Joseph Dunford, Commander of International Security Assistance Force , the Afghan President has held their rel ease in abeyance pending the review of their cases. |
| Date: | 17 January 2014 |
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| Title: | 311: Painful Polls and Dhaka’s Dilemmas |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | The elections that were completed in Bangladesh on 5 January 2014 exacted a heavy toll, not just in lives and limbs – though there were plenty of that as well – b ut in terms of costs to Bangladesh’s reputation as a pluralist and democratic polity. I say ‘completed’ because the p rocess began sometime ago, when in the face of the refusal of the principal opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Begum Khaleda Zia , to participate in the polls, the Awami League (AL) government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina won in a canter, indeed in a gallop, in what was a ‘walk - over’ (in cricketing parlance), starting with the uncontested election of 153 candidates to a Parliament of 300 . The numbers were sufficient for Hasina and her allies to form government. Khaleda’s decision to boycott the polls flowed from a deep distrust of her opponent, under whose aegis she felt the elections would not be free and fair. Hence her insistence that Hasina resign and polls be held under a neutral government |
| Date: | 10 January 2014 |
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