| Title: | 226 : Politics, Strategy and the Lokpal Bill |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | India's much -anticipated Lokpal Bill (designed to set up an ombudsman) was introduced in the Rajya Sabha (upper house of par liament) on 29 December 2011, but the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government had to beat an ignominious retreat as it could not gather enough numbers in the house for the passage of the bill. Earlier the bill was in fact passed by the more powerful Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament), but both houses are now adjourned. It is possible that the government may send the bill and all the suggested amendments to a parliamentary committee for consideration before reintroducing it in the next session of pa rliament. |
| Date: | 30 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 225 : The Lokpal Bill: An opportunity for the Government and the Economy |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The Lok Sabha (L ower H ouse of Parliament) passed the Lokp al B ill on 27 December 2011 , marking an end to the drama that grip ped the media, the public and political parties for over four months in India . 2 The B ill, to create a Lokpal (ombudsman) structure to oversee complaints of corruption against public officials , has been over four decades in the making ; and it is widely acknowledged that the recent spate of scams that have engulfed the Government galvanised civil society, led by the activist Anna Hazare, to launch mass protests against the rampant corruption in public service. |
| Date: | 28 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 224 : US-Pak relations: Reflecting on 2011 |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | This brief looks at Pakistan-US (United States) relations in 2011 and examines the reasons for the steady deterioration in ties in the course of the year. It discusses the strategic divergences between the two countries, as well as the compulsions for them to cooperate with each other. |
| Date: | 27 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 223 : Atomic Fuel for Australia-India Synergy |
| Author/s: | P. S. Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The governing Australian Labor Party's latest vote to lift the ban on uranium sales to nuclear-armed India for its civilian atomic energy programme has economic and strategic overtones. On the economic side, though, New Delhi may not be able to make precise estimates of its long-term uranium needs until and unless the Indian civil society comes to terms with civil nuclear energy as a safe bet. At the same time, Australia is keen to quiz India on the unrelated but strategically important nuclear safeguards issues. Overarching these cross-currents is the political fact of both New Delhi and Washington welcoming the Julia Gillard administration's new India initiative. |
| Date: | 15 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 222 : The Mohmand Mayhem and its Impact on Pakistan-US Alliance: For the Friendship a Blush, for the Ties a Tear! |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The implications of the recent incident in which 24 Pakistan soldiers were killed on the Pakistan-Afghanistan border by NATO military action are likely to be far-reaching. It will severely dent Pakistan's relationship with the West. But this may not mean crossing the Rubicon. At the end, there will need to have a Modus Vivendi. But for now, an age-old alliance is in tatters! |
| Date: | 30 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 221 : The Afghanistan Enigma: Jostling for Influence will Jeopardise Peace |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf |
| Abstract: | Political grandstanding aside, the message after United States Secretary of State Hillar y Clinton's visit to Islamabad later in October indicates that the two sides are prepared to work together over a plan of action to engage Taliban (read Afghan resistance) in creating a post - US withdrawal structure in Afghanistan. |
| Date: | 21 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 220 : India and Pakistan Prime Ministers- Meeting: Looking to the Future |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | This brief discusses the recent meeting of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani on the sidelines of the 17th SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) Summit in Maldives. While no substantial gains were made, the meeting ended on a positive note and laid foundations for further talks and greater cooperation between India and Pakistan in the near future. |
| Date: | 21 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 219 : Pakistan, India and the Security Council: Thinking the Unthinkables |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has just been elected to the Security Council with India’s support. This may have been in the face of wariness on the part of some of Pakistan’s traditional Western allies. This is at a time when Pakistan’s relationship with the United States (US) and the West are deteriorating rapidly. India has displayed maturity by not seeking to exploit it. Indeed this falling out with the West may be inversely aiding Indo-Pak relations. But this also creates challenges for New Delhi that will call for considerable diplomatic artfulness and finesse. |
| Date: | 2 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 218 : India-Afghanistan Strategic Agreement: Opportunity for Peace and for Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf |
| Abstract: | President Karzai’s statement in New Delhi that ‘ Pakistan is a twin brother, India is a great friend ’ is unlikely to assuage Pakistan’s concerns over the real nature and implications of Indo - Afg han Strategic Agreement for Pakistan. The deal signed on October 4; he added ‘with our friend will not affect our brother’. |
| Date: | 18 October 2011 |
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| Title: | 217 : The Meaning of Anna Hazare’s Movement |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Social activist Anna Hazare's 13-day hunger strike demanding a strong anti-corruption authority in India has made him a global name. His movement has been responsible for bringing back corruption to top of the agenda in India, which has seen several scams in recent times. It has also galvanised a large number of people who are not usually known to take to the streets for political causes. However, the tide of positive coverage of the event has glossed over some problematic aspects of the goals and methods of the movement. |
| Date: | 8 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 216 : Al Qaeda, A Decade after the 9/11 Attacks |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza |
| Abstract: | No major Al Qaeda attack has taken place since the 2 May 2011 killing of Osama Bin Laden. The organisation has lost quite a few important leaders. Its operations are said to be in shambles. It is merely attempting to survive rather than expand or even plan an attack. While the Arab spring is said to have depleted the Al Qaeda of its popular appeal, the difficult fiscal situation in the United States could be directing the Obama administration’s public posturing of the outfit’s reduced threat potential. While 11 September is a time for an introspection of a decade-long counter terrorism policy aimed at decimating and defeating the Al Qaeda, a trend analysis of the threat from Al Qaeda post-Abbotabad might have important pointers that speak otherwise. |
| Date: | 8 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 215 : Growth in the Indian Economy- Some Thoughts |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The poor performance of the markets last week has again underlined global concerns over the developments in the Unite d States and the European Union. In terms of the impact on the Indian economy, the media have been articulating both points of view - that it would have no effect, and that it would have a considerable impact. |
| Date: | 22 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 214 : Come September, Manmohan Comes To Dhaka |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | This brief is a curtain-raiser to the visit to Bangladesh by the Indian Prime Minister, Dr Manmohan Singh, in September 2011. It argues that globalisation is leading to a change in mind-sets that, if taken advantage of during that event, would lead to positive and beneficial results for both countries. If India has a disproportionate responsibility to improve ties, Bangladesh also has its own share, for, as the Bengali saying goes, it takes two to clap hands. |
| Date: | 15 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 213 : Opportunities for South Asia in the Revolutions in the West |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | The knowledge-intensive goods and services the world's more developed countries will continue to need but may not be able to produce if the states fail to invest in human skill development and physical infrastructure improvement, India and its sister South Asian states could fill the gap. Once again, the South Asian diaspora can help. They have the financial resources and knowledge and management expertise to develop new industries in what was once their homelands. But they will need help from the South Asian states to develop the instruments of finance and transfer of knowledge and management practices that would help to bring new industries to this part of the world. |
| Date: | 15 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 212 : Exploding Karachi |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Pakistan cannot make economic and political progress unless the different kinds of violence that have become routine in the country are brought under control. It is because of this that the World Bank in its 2011 World Development Report has included Pakistan, along with a score of other countries, in its list of fragile states.2 In fact, there are three ongoing wars within Pakistan. There is no end in sight for any of them: they are the wars in Karachi, the war among the various sects of Islam and the war between the state and various extremist groups. This paper discusses the explosion in Karachi. All three are taking large economic and human tolls on the country. |
| Date: | 15 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 211 : Pakistan-India Trade |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | With the invitation on 5 August 2011 from the Indian commerce minister to his Pakistani counterpart to visit New Delhi and hold substantive talks on improving trade relations between the two countries, groundwork may be laid for breaching the differences that have created enormous burdens of history. Trade is a good place to start but, as discussed in this brief, some serious work will needs to be done before real progress can be made. |
| Date: | 10 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 210 : The Emerging Faultlines of the US-Afghan Strategic Partnership |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The United States (US) and Afghanistan are locked in discussions to finalise a long-term security agreement that would pave the way for retention of limited US troop presence in the country beyond 2014. The secrecy surrounding the ongoing deliberations on the yet-to-be-inked US-Afghan Strategic Partnership is causing considerable disquiet both within and outside Afghanistan. However, the deal, which is seen as a security guarantee to the Afghans, seems to be mired in the emerging differences on the conditionalities and nature of the partnership. Notwithstanding the current state of discussions, the strategic partnership will have long-term implications for both Afghanistan and the region. |
| Date: | 10 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 209 : India and Pakistan Foreign Ministers- Meeting: New Hopes and Expectations |
| Author/s: | Dr Rajshree Jetly, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the recent meeting between Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna and the newly appointed Pakistani Foreign Minister Hina Rabbani Khar in New Delhi on 27 July 2011. Unlike the previous foreign ministers- meeting in Islamabad in 2010, the recent meeting between the two foreign ministers had a more positive feel to it. While no major breakthroughs were achieved, some confidence building measures were announced, paving the way for greater interaction between the two neighbours with a view to improve relations in the future. |
| Date: | 1 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 208 : America Attempting to Find its Way in Asia: Moving Towards the Obama Doctrine |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | International trade matters for development but the South Asian countries have done poorly. Their trade-to-GDP ratio is much lower than that of East Asia. One reason is that for more than four decades after achieving independence, South Asians continued to believe in the import-substitution strategy of growth. The East Asians, on the other hand, used the state to aggressively build their export industry. But there is one similarity between these two parts of the Asian continent: they have sought markets for their products in the world's developed economies. |
| Date: | 28 July 2011 |
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| Title: | 207 : Pakistan’s Afghan Dilemma: Seeking that Elusive Sense of Security |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | While visiting my senior colleague, Ambassador Qazi Humayun, in September 1995 when he was recovering from a mob attack, with broken teeth and with stitches on his head, after the Pakistan Embassy in Kabul was ransacked on 6 September, I asked him, ‘How is it that, every government in Kabul starts with public declaration of friendship with Pakistan but relations sour within six months?’ The attacks were allegedly supported by the Rabbani Government helped into power by Pakistan after deposing the Najibullah regime. He did not answer. The question has continued to intrigue me. |
| Date: | 27 July 2011 |
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| Title: | 206 : ‘Ye Hai Mumbai Meri Jaan…’ |
| Author/s: | S.D. Muni, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The serial blasts of 13 July 2011 in Mumbai that shattered 31 months of relative peace in India have resulted in 18 deaths and 130 injured people. The renewal of terrorist attacks underline the revival and regrouping of those terrorist organisations who had been lying low under the international pressures and the promise of internal security revamping in the aftermath of the 26 November 2008 (26/11) cross-border terrorist attacks on Mumbai. The current blasts also expose major chinks in India’s internal security structure and point clearly to the fact that the lessons of 26/11 have not been learnt properly. While the investigating agencies are being cautious in identifying possible suspects, a more intriguing aspect of the blasts is that no terrorist group has claimed responsibility for them so far. |
| Date: | 19 July 2011 |
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| Title: | 205 : The ‘US-Pak’ Relationship: A Complex but Categorical Imperative |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The ‘rollercoaster’ nature of the ‘US-Pak’ relationship is a complex one. Yet for both Pakistan and the United States (US), it is a categorical imperative, one of ‘necessity’, rather than one of choice. It is transactional rather, than spontaneous. It is bred not in love, but in need. It is a difficult equilibrium, but one that needs to be maintained in appropriate balance for the sake of security, regional and beyond. That is the challenge both parties confront. |
| Date: | 23 June 2011 |
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| Title: | 204 : The Challenge of Ethnic Federalism in Nepal |
| Author/s: | Hema Kiruppalini, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Following the 5-point Agreement, on 29 May 2011, Nepal's main political parties - the Unified Communist Party of Nepal-Maoists (UCPN-Maoist), the Nepali Congress, and the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist - agreed to extend the Constituent Assembly (CA) by another three months. The promulgation of the constitution is seen as an important step forward in the country's struggle to facilitate a peace process. More importantly, the state restructuring process on the basis of ethnic parameters threatens to endanger national cohesion. |
| Date: | 17 June 2011 |
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| Title: | 203 : NMIZs in India: Haunted by SEZs |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India's draft national manufacturing policy proposes National Manufacturing and Investment Zones (NMIZs) as instruments for revitalising manufacturing. The policy addresses major challenges for Indian manufacturing such as inflexible labour laws, multiple procedures and environment-friendly production. However, NMIZs pose several questions with respect to their relationship with Special Economic Zones (SEZs). Unless states are consulted actively, the paper argues, NMIZs might be as controversial as SEZs. |
| Date: | 17 June 2011 |
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| Title: | 202 : India-Australia: Moving beyond the Periphery |
| Author/s: | Suvi Dogra, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India and Australia have traditionally been at the periphery of each other's foreign policy. However, with the recent high level ministerial meetings, clearly the two countries are now trying to engage each other with reinforced vigour. The recent agreement to begin formal negotiations for a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) has given much needed impetus for stronger bilateral relations. This paper discusses India-Australia relations against the backdrop of the proposed CECA. |
| Date: | 26 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 201 : A No-Win Situation for Pakistan: A Dilemma for the US |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), Singapore |
| Abstract: | The United States (US) raid that killed Osama Bin Laden has raised many serious questions and has put the Pakistani ruling elite at serious odds with the public. Pushing Pakistan to the corner is not the optimal choice for the US' long-term interests in the region. |
| Date: | 24 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 200 : Kerala: Communist Survival – Now What? |
| Author/s: | Robin Jeffrey, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Contrary to predictions, Kerala’s Left Democratic Front (LDF) led by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)], came within a whisker of retaining power in state elections, the results of which were announced on 13 May 2011. For 40 years, Kerala voters have made it a tradition to change governments at each election. That tradition continues, but the 2011 result will install a rickety United Democratic Front (UDF) government led by the Congress Party. Oommen Chandy will return to the chief minister’s position he occupied from 2004-06. The Congress performed disappointingly, winning only 38 of the 82 seats it contested. It will need all six of its alliance partners to retain power. Kerala’s economy and social cohesion are vital issues for the new government. Its tiny majority and disparate character lead to doubts about its ability to handle such problems effectively or to complete its five-year term. |
| Date: | 23 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 199 : How the Red Fortress was Won: An Analysis of the West Bengal Assembly Election |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | That the Left Front, the longest-serving democratically elected Communist government, was voted out in West Bengal did not come as a surprise. The margin of victory for the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress was, however, not anticipated by many. The Trinamool rode on the strong desire for change among West Bengal voters. Among the other factors for the Trinamool's thumping victory were discontent over the Left Front's land acquisition policy, the transfer of allegiance of Muslim voters to the Trinamool and the inability of the Left to comprehend the extent of voter dissatisfaction. |
| Date: | 18 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 198 : Tamil Nadu Election Results: An Assessment |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Tamil Nadu election results are important not only for the significant mandate for change but also for indicating a distinct change in voter perception. There appears to be a strong antipathy to poor governance and nepotism, and an expectation that good governance would deliver more people friendly policies. Cash for votes or freebies do not appear to have swayed the electorate. This seems to be a sign in the right direction for democracy. |
| Date: | 16 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 197 : Census 2011: The Curious Case of Changes in Tamil Nadu Demographics |
| Author/s: | Pratima Singh, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The latest 2011 census shows that Tamil Nadu is the only state to experience an increase in the decadal population growth rate, from 11.7 per cent in 1991-2001 to 15.6 per cent in 2001-11. The category of child population within the age of zero to six years constitutes 9.5 per cent of the state's population, a decline from the 11 per cent in 2001. Thus, the growth in population is due to a sharp rise in numbers, aged seven years and above, the causes for which can only be verified once age group wise data is released for the 2011 census. Studying district wise data reveals that the most likely explanation for this population increase is in-migration of labour, especially in districts with high industrial activity. |
| Date: | 16 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 196 : Post-Osama: Is it the Beginning of the ‘End’ in Afghanistan? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The killing of Osama bin Laden has sent a chilling message to its affiliates in the region. However, at the same time, it has initiated speculations that having achieved their objective of eliminating Osama, the United States (US) can safely commence the ‘drawdown’ of forces. Will the US abandon Afghanistan, yet again, as it did when it shifted focus to Iraq? Will it stay put and focus on the groups like the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and the Pakistani Taliban who have vowed revenge? Will it pursue the Quetta Shura so that they become amenable to the reconciliation process underway in Afghanistan? If the goal of the US is to pursue the region, answers to these questions remain vital for the prospects of stabilisation in Afghanistan and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 9 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 195 : Prospects for ‘Transition’ in the Afghan Security Sector: A Reality Check? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza |
| Abstract: | As the talks of transfer of authority gains currency, the Taliban insurgency wants to demonstrate its capacity by systematic targeting of the new and fragile Afghan security forces. The gradual reduction of international forces is slated to coincide with the ascendancy in the capabilities and presence of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSFs) that will be responsible for securing the country against insurgent attacks. Will these forces – product of a rushed, under-resourced and frequently revamped recruitment and training procedure – be able to deliver? There are serious reasons for worry. The rush to pass the responsibility to relatively new and fragile force might prove disastrous for the country and the region. This paper while assessing the effectiveness of the ANSFs argues that a sustainable transition in the security sector can only be achieved by long-term vision and efforts in institution building. |
| Date: | 15 April 2011 |
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| Title: | 194 : The TAPI Pipeline: A Recipe for Peace or Instability? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Amidst talks of rising instability and violence in Afghanistan, what seems to have eluded the eye is the progress on the Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India (TAPI) gas pipeline project. The projected gain from the pipeline is seen as an opportunity to create a win-win deal among local and regional stakeholders in Afghanistan by binding the ‘warring’ factions in an integrative economic framework. By building on Afghanistan’s role as an ‘energy-bridge’ between an energy abundant central Asia and energy deficient South Asia, there exists possibilities of integrating the conflict-ridden country mostly driven by regional power competition into a mutually dependent cooperative framework. The TAPI pipeline is projected to boost economic interdependence among competing regional powers, thus making the costs of conflict too high and benefits of cooperation lucrative. However, there are potential roadblocks, which need to be addressed before the project can take its final shape. |
| Date: | 1 April 2011 |
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| Title: | 193 : China and India: Competitors or Collaborators? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As the global economy is slowly emerging from the devastating 2008-09 recession, China and India have been leading the way in global growth, both nearing the double-digit markers in regards to their respective gross domestic product (GDP) growth. At the same time this growth has not been universal. The United States (US) has revived to some positive numbers but it still remains under-par in historical comparison. Situations in Western Europe have proved to be even worse. Several countries have been facing crises with balance of payments (BoP). Britain has had negative growth of one-quarter, which, followed by another such quarter drop, would bring the country back into a recession. Japan’s severe earthquake and resulting tsunami has knocked down the country’s economy and there is likely to be a drop in the future rate of economic growth. This clearly means that for the moment, economic activity will be in Asia and within the continent’s largest economies, China and India. What will these trends portend for the global economy? |
| Date: | 31 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 192 : Tamil Nadu Assembly Elections: Mapping Electoral Alliances and their Strategies |
| Author/s: | Gayathri Lakshminarayan |
| Abstract: | Even days after the process of filing nominations for the April 13 Assembly polls had begun, the political alliances in Tamil Nadu were in a state of flux. The All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) had differences regarding identification of constituencies, while the Vaiko (Vai. Gopalsamy)-led Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK) pulled out of its alliance with the AIADMK and decided to boycott the elections. The incumbent Dravida Munnetra Kazghagam (DMK) government, on the other hand, has finalised seat-sharing agreements with its allies. However, the negotiations between the DMK and Congress had proven difficult, as discussions were held against the perceived weakness of the regional party in the 2G scam controversy and the resolve of the Congress to reposition itself in the state. In what is likely to be a close and contested election, the DMK and the AIADMK are relying on traditional populist strategies such as promising freebies and relying on the film industry to mobilise the voters, apart from electoral arithmetic. This paper attempts to map the two major electoral alliances in Tamil Nadu, the factors which have gone into shaping them and to examine the electoral strategies of the two political coalitions while identifying issues which may influence the outcome. |
| Date: | 30 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 191 : The Raymond Davis Case |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the Raymond Davis case in the context of Pakistan-United States (US) relations. The Raymond Davis saga demonstrates, once again, the challenges faced by Pakistan as a frontline state in the international war on terrorism and how the Government has to make difficult decisions in balancing its domestic and foreign policy interests. |
| Date: | 28 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 190 : Restoring Order in Grameen |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The removal of Nobel Prize-winning economist Muhammad Yunus from the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh has created a deadlock in the Bank. The stalemate that is widely believed to have deep-rooted political interest is denting clients’ confidence, leading to hasty withdrawal of deposits. This can also prompt some borrowers to refuse to repay their loans, eventually defaulting on their debts owing to a ‘moral hazard’ problem repeating the recent experience in Andhra Pradesh in India. Given the Grameen’s local as well as global role in poverty alleviation through microcredit, an apolitical management with or without Muhammad Yunus needs to be restored as soon as possible, allowing the higher court to act independently. If not handled properly, the ‘Grameen contagion’ can travel well beyond Bangladesh’s boundaries. |
| Date: | 15 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 189 : India’s Tourist Visa on Arrival: One Step Forward and Two Steps Back? |
| Author/s: | Syeda Sana Rahman, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Since 1991, following the currency crisis and subsequent liberalisation, India has involved itself with what has been deemed the ‘Look East’ policy. In ‘looking East’, towards Southeast Asia, India has sought to forge a greater and deeper economic and political relationship with the region. As economic ties have deepened, the Indian government has made further moves to increase tourist inflows from the region by introducing the tourist visa on arrival (TVOA) scheme in 2010. Although on a limited (but incremental) basis the extension of the TVOA to ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) is quite significant in the perspective of India’s mounting engagement with the region, both economically and politically. However, some roadblocks remain, which may well dilute the objective of the scheme. |
| Date: | 11 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 188 : India Budget 2011-12: Scoring Low on Politics |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Development & Programmes) and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Politics, not economics, was the main worry for the Government of India on the eve of the latest budget. The budget tried to maintain economic momentum and also address concerns over black money and governance. While it scores reasonably well on the economic front, this paper argues that its political impact may be diluted due to lack of signals on a firm action agenda. |
| Date: | 7 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 187 : Much Ado about Nothing |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Cabinet reshuffle in India in January 2011 was a damp squib. The major portfolios ÔÇô finance, home, external affairs and defence ÔÇô were left untouched. There were only a few relatively minor changes in portfolios and promotions to a handful of ministers. Though a bigger reshuffle has been promised after the forthcoming budget session of the Parliament, the Government seems to have a lost an opportunity to make a statement of intent at a time when the country is besieged by scams, inflation and a Parliamentary deadlock. |
| Date: | 2 February 2011 |
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| Title: | 186 : Global Realignment: Significance of Hu Jintao’s Visit to the United States for South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recently concluded visit by the Chinese President Hu Jintao to the United States (US) is significant for South Asia. The main purpose of the visit was to reset the relations between these two global powers – one that was unchallenged for a couple of decades as the sole superpower, and the other that is surging ahead economically and militarily – with the aim of producing a more stable global order. The American tone at the formal meetings in Washington was very different from the one used by President Barack Obama during his visit to Beijing in November 2009. Then he had welcomed China to a shared position with the US in the emerging world order, a kind of G2 arrangement. This time the American President talked about cooperation and competition between the dominant powers. The Hu visit came after Mr Obama’s trip to India in which he promised a larger role in world affairs to the other rising Asian power. Washington seems to be moving away from a G2 world to a multipolar world. The paper examines the reasons for the shift in tone and the implications for South Asia. |
| Date: | 27 January 2011 |
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| Title: | 185 : India’s Inflation: An Alternate Hypothesis |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Inflation continues to remain the biggest challenge for economic policy in India. This paper analyses various factors contributing to inflation. It argues that rapid growth of a cash economy fuelled by heavy liquidity and large cash transactions, particularly in property markets, are sustaining inflation. Under such circumstances, monetary policies are likely to be ineffective in curbing prices. |
| Date: | 11 January 2011 |
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| Title: | 184 : History May Not Repeat Itself For Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is currently facing a serious political crisis. It has many dimensions – economic, political, and extremism inside and outside its western borders. It is the rise of extremism that poses an existential threat to the country. In fact, the Pakistani society is at war with itself with extremist elements challenging the writ of the state. To deal with the growing extremist threat will need progress on the economic and political fronts. That said, there is some expectation that history will not repeat itself with another military intervention that happened on several occasions in the past. Some counter forces – an independent media, a rising middle-class and civil society institutions – are likely to prevent the collapse of the Pakistani state. |
| Date: | 7 January 2011 |
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