| Title: | 479 : Ensuring Water Supply in Amaravati: Challenges and Possible Solutions |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | Amaravati, the new capital city of the Indian State of Andhra Pradesh, faces the challenge of meeting its water-related needs. Although the State government has embarked on several measures in this regards, these are not sufficient to address the city's water-related concerns. This paper examines the severity of the issue and proposes several measures which may help Amaravati to overcome its water-related challenges. |
| Date: | 28 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 478 : Chabahar Launched: A Boost for Regional Connectivity Amidst Global Uncertainty |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | On 3 December 2017, Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani inaugurated a much awaited US$1 billion (S$1.35 billion) project to expand Shahid Beheshti Port at Chabahar, located in Iran’s south-eastern province of Sistan and Baluchistan. Chabahar is the country’s sole deep-water harbour and only direct access point to the Indian Ocean. This is also an achievement for India, following the port development pact signed in 2016 during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Tehran, in which India committed to making US$500 million (S$676 million) available to develop the port and related infrastructure. Hopes are high for a boost in regional trade and connectivity. However, doubts persist over the port’s viability. In particular, India faces a tricky challenge in managing relations with Iran and the United States at a time of global uncertainty. |
| Date: | 12 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 477 : India’s Job Creation Challenge |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | Three years into office, India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to deliver on his campaign promise of creating jobs for the millions of youth who are flooding the labour market each year. Although the recent discourse about jobs in India has focussed on the job losses on account of demonetisation of high value currency late last year and the hasty implementation of the Goods and Services Tax earlier in July 2017, the employment problem is deeper and more structural in nature. Even as employment data are deficient and unreliable, there is no doubt that the problem is large and growing. There can be no simple or single solution to a challenge as complex as this – innovative policies and energetic action are needed on a whole range of fronts. Making a headway on solving India’s employment problem will remain Modi’s most formidable challenge and one that will determine his legacy. |
| Date: | 17 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 476 : Donald Trump’s ‘Indo-Pacific’ and America’s India Conundrum |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | One of the new dynamics of the gathering geopolitical turbulence in Asia and its waters is the growing use of the term ‘Indo-Pacific’. During his extended visit to Asia in November 2017, United States (US) President Donald Trump has defined the region as ‘Indo-Pacific’ rather than the customary ‘Asia-Pacific’. Concepts of geopolitical space are never static, and Trump’s emphasis on the Indo-Pacific underlines the rise of India, China’s assertiveness and its expanding footprint in the Indian Ocean, as well as Washington’s plans to elevate its strategic partnership with New Delhi. It involves America’s strategic bet on India’s future role in shaping the security architecture in the eastern hemisphere. Actively promoted in recent years by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, the Indo-Pacific conception can be traced back to the decision of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to invite India as a founding member of the East Asia Summit in 2005. The durability of the Indo-Pacific dynamic, however, will depend essentially on New Delhi’s willingness to work with the US and its allies in the region. |
| Date: | 13 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 475 : Sri Lanka’s Trade Imperative |
| Author/s: | Amresh Gunasingham |
| Abstract: | Optimism in Sri Lanka following the end of Mahinda Rajapaksa's presidency in 2015 saw civil and political freedoms liberalised, ethnic relations improved, and foreign relations with China and India rebalanced. However, the government's scorecard in managing the economy has been disappointing, with analysts pointing to large excesses in fiscal and monetary policymaking. This has arguably contributed to a slowing economy and mounting debt. This paper emphasises the need for the government to boost exports and foreign investments, revamp the tax system and lower barriers to competition in key domestic sectors to improve the economy. |
| Date: | 1 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 474 : The Challenges of Higher Education in India |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi has stressed the need to improve the standards of higher education in India. This paper briefly maps the country's institutional landscape of Indian universities, examines the demand for and supply of qualitative as well as practical education, besides offering some ideas on how the issues facing India's higher education could be addressed. |
| Date: | 1 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 473 : Donald Trump’s Iran Move: Consequences for the Shaky World Order |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | United States (US) President Donald Trump's decision to not certify to the US Congress that Iran was abiding by the terms of the agreement which Tehran had signed in July 2015 with America and five other major powers will have serious worldwide consequences. It will further erode the rule-based world order built over the last seven decades. And it will, albeit indirectly, widen the gap that already exists in the professed strategic interests of the countries in South Asia. This paper examines why the American president took that decision and where that will take him, his country and the world in the years ahead. |
| Date: | 19 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 472 : The Economic Thrust in India-Japan Ties: Potential Opportunities for Singapore |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s recent visit to India was full of potential for a qualitative transformation of an already-burgeoning bilateral relationship. Tokyo’s big push into India’s infrastructure sector should also be of interest to Singaporean firms which are well-positioned to take advantage of India’s “Act-East” policy and Japan’s “Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy”. |
| Date: | 16 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 471 : Northeast India in India’s “Act-East” Policy: Exploring Connectivity with Southeast Asia |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The location of northeast India makes it a key nodal point for India’s growing ties with Southeast Asia. As India celebrates 25 years of its dialogue partnership with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, the northeast of the country has become doubly important in India’s “Act-East” Policy. The ongoing construction of the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway will further enhance the importance of northeast India in India’s “ActEast” policy. |
| Date: | 11 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 470 : Population Dynamics of Pakistan: Challenges and the Need for Policy Formulation1 |
| Author/s: | Asad Ejaz Butt |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has a fairly young, large and expanding but unevenly-spread population; an untapped resource that can be converted into a sustainable-development asset if the facts about it are known and the government programmes and policies are harmonised with those facts to harness its true potential. This paper examines, by analysing the population dynamics of Pakistan, the impact that a young, large but untapped- and untrained-population can have on the country's chances of contributing to a peaceful, socio-economically developed and politically stable South Asia. The potential impact, though quite obvious, entails several challenges for the Pakistan government and private-sector organisations in promoting publicprivate partnerships. |
| Date: | 11 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 469 : Doing Business in India – An Entrepreneur’s Perspective |
| Author/s: | Gopinath Pillai |
| Abstract: | It is an oft-repeated cliché that India is a complex and difficult market. This is not far from the truth. The economic liberalisation measures, initiated 1991, have seen the country make significant progress towards emerging as an important business partner and investment destination in recent times. However, doing business and investing in India continue to remain a challenge. Despite that, there is the potential of finding the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow if one perseveres and looks at the country as a long-term prospect. |
| Date: | 4 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 468 : The Belt and Road Initiative: India-China Tussle on Aid Imperialism |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao and Silvia Tieri |
| Abstract: | India opted out of the high-profiled Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation held in Beijing in May 2017 in protest against the Chinese connectivity initiative infringing India's sovereignty. Instead, on the eve of the summit, India issued a statement outlining its objections to the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), implicitly casting doubts over whether China would comply with international norms on development assistance and connectivity projects. This paper argues that, notwithstanding its track record to the contrary, China should conform to these norms in order for the BRI to deliver its strategic and development goals. India, on its, part, must review its own development assistance policies in order to gain the moral stature to act as a monitor in this regard. |
| Date: | 20 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 467 : The Rohingya Crisis – The History and the Possibility of Border Adjustments |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | There is nothing new about the mass movements of people in the South Asian sub-continent. Over the last 70 years, when the British packed their bags and went home in 1947, millions of people were forced out of their homes. Since the areas where they were living were no longer considered safe for them, they moved both ways across the border between independent India and the newly-created Pakistan in the hope that they would find safety there. The latest of these flights of people involves the Rohingyas, a small Muslim minority of about one and a half million people that has been living just across Bangladesh’s border with Myanmar which lies in neighbouring Southeast Asia. As with the other crises in this larger neighbourhood, this too can perhaps be resolved by some border adjustments involving Myanmar and Bangladesh. If not, there is the real danger of the displaced Rohingyas becoming one more source of international terrorism. This is the fear that has resulted in India’s decision to deport 16,500 Rohingya refugees registered in the country by the United Nations. |
| Date: | 20 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 466 : Think Globally, Act Locally – A Roadmap for the Efficient Management of ‘White Pollution’ in Kolkata and Chittagong |
| Author/s: | Sarmistha Biswas, Jayanta Saha and Ananya Nandy |
| Abstract: | ‘White pollution’ – caused by plastic waste, such as the rampant usage of plastic carry-bags for their convenience, overlooking their impact on environmental degradation – has become a growing concern for sustainable living in both Kolkata in India and Chittagong in Bangladesh. The circulation of these single-use carry-bags is more visible in the unorganised retail market. Though controls are in place in both these cities, the problem of ‘white pollution’ is on the upswing. The long-term effective management of ‘white pollution’ demandsthe implementation of efficient market-based alternatives, along with the proper enforcement of a command and control policy. However, the choice of market-based alternatives lies in knowledge, ethical responsibility and integrity of the users of plastic carry-bags in the areas concerned. |
| Date: | 20 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 465 : India-ASEAN Relations: The Youth and Education Factors |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) celebrated its 50th birth anniversary on 8 August 2017. This year also marks 25 years of ASEAN's'Partnership Dialogue' with India. To mark this milestone, India hosted the first India-ASEAN Youth Summit in August 2017. The summit highlighted an area of vast potential cooperation between the two sides: youth relations, particularly through educational arrangements. This paper looks at the progress achieved so far in this regard and the potential going forward. |
| Date: | 20 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 464 : Pakistan’s Population – A Ticking Time Bomb |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki and Riaz Hassan |
| Abstract: | Some data from the April-May 2017 census in Pakistan have become available and the picture they paint is very troubling because of the high rate of the population growth. Some commentators have questioned the accuracy of the numbers in the census. In this paper, the authors maintain that this not helpful. Instead, Islamabad’s policy makers – and also those in the provinces – should treat the information that has been released seriously and begin to devise policies and programmes that would address the demographic problems the country faces at this time. The authors’ main conclusion is that, at this delicate moment in Pakistan’s history, serious attention should be given to the country’s demographic situation. The authors also propose carrying out follow-up studies as more data become available on various demographic challenges facing Pakistan. |
| Date: | 14 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 463 : Sino-Indian De-escalation of the Doklam Crisis: Nuances of the Geopolitical Context |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The latest military standoff between China and India at the Doklam plateau in the harsh Himalayan environment has ended through an “understanding” between these two Asian neighbours on 28 August 2017. However, the manner in which the two sides have portrayed the outcome shows that they have not yet fully normalised their relations despite a series of bilateral confidence-building measures (CBMs) agreed upon since 1993. Publicly unstated by both countries now, but going forward, it is time for them to begin addressing the real meaning of the doctrine of “mutual and equal security” embedded in these CBMs. |
| Date: | 5 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 462 : The Triple Talaq Judgement: A Balancing Act by the Indian Supreme Court |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The Indian Supreme Court, in a split verdict, has held the practice of triple talaq (divorce) unconstitutional. The Supreme Court's invalidation of triple talaq has raised the question of whether this could mark the beginning of a move to reform Muslim personal law, which is still governed by the Shariat Act of 1937. The political reaction to the judgement, however, seems to suggest that larger changes to Muslim personal law are not in the offing in the near future. |
| Date: | 5 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 461 : India-Nepal Engagement: The Need to Rise Above the Rituals |
| Author/s: | S D Muni |
| Abstract: | India-Nepal relations are changing – not only because both these countries are transforming internally, but also because the regional strategic context in which they operate is being redefined, particularly by China’s strong push into South Asia and the Indo-Pacific region. Nepal’s Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba’s state visit to India from 23 to 27 August 2017, when viewed in this dynamic context, appears to be high on rituals and low on substance. It is clear that relations between these two close neighbours cannot be managed in the ‘business as usual’ style. The leadership of both the countries must not continue to bask under the protective feeling of close civilisational, cultural and geographical ties between them. They have to relate these traditional bonds to the future aspirations of their increasingly confident and alert people |
| Date: | 31 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 460 : India and Pakistan Today: Still Living in the Shadows of 1947 |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | There were many who believed that the Partition of British India in 1947 into independent India and the new state of Pakistan would lead to the resolution of Hindu-Muslim communal issues. They were gravely mistaken. Today, 70 years after the Partition, communal tensions continue to plague relations between the majority and minority communities in both India and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 31 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 459 : Outlook for the Continuing Success of Japanese and South Korean Automobile Makers in India |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | The automobile industry is a key growth engine in India. It has created millions of jobs and contributed to the country’s gross domestic product. The Narendra Modi government is paying great attention to this industry as the top job-creator under the ‘Make in India’ initiative. In this promising sector, the Japanese and South Korean automakers have, forlong, outperformed other brands. Their cutting-edge technologies and qualitative customer service seem to be the secret to their success. The Japanese and South Korean automotive enterprises, which led the miracle of economic development in their countries, are expected to cater significantly to India’s growing domestic demand and further develop their export-oriented production bases in India in the near future. |
| Date: | 28 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 458 : The India-Japan Civilian Nuclear Deal: A High-Water Mark in Bilateral Ties |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The entering into force of the India-Japan civilian nuclear deal represents a new era in cooperation between the two countries in the field of civilian use of nuclear energy. India is the only non-Non-Proliferation Treaty country with which Japan has signed such a deal. This clearly signifies the huge importance of this deal, not only for India, but also for Japan. However, several challenges need to be overcome before India and Japan can fully operationalise the deal. |
| Date: | 25 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 457 : Labour Migration from Pakistan: An Overview |
| Author/s: | Riaz Hassan |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is one of the largest exporters of labour. Between 1971 and 2016, more than 9.4 million Pakistanis went overseas for employment. The main destination for Pakistani labour was the Gulf, mainly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Almost 90 per cent of Pakistani workers are unskilled or semi-skilled and vulnerable to exploitative recruitment and working conditions. The other destinations include the United Kingdom, Western Europe and North America. The Pakistani diaspora makes a significant contribution to Pakistan's gross domestic product (GDP). In the fiscal year 2014-15, remittance flow from overseas Pakistanis amounted to US$15 billion (S$20.4 billion), accounting for seven to eight per cent of Pakistan's GDP. |
| Date: | 25 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 456 : America’s Reset of Afghan Strategy: Potential Realignment of South Asian Geopolitics |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | The United States President Donald Trump's reset of Afghan strategy marks an important discontinuity in America’s approach to South Asia. Washington's new strategy, crafted after an agonising reappraisal of American goals in Afghanistan and the means to achieve them, has come in the face of Trump’s own personal skepticism about continuing the American military involvement after 17 futile years. Whether it succeeds or not, Trump's new assertiveness in Afghanistan is bound to intensify the current churn in the geopolitics of the Indian subcontinent. |
| Date: | 23 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 455 : The Indian Diaspora in Israel: Understanding the Past, Present and Future of Israelis of Indian Origins |
| Author/s: | Benjamin Chin |
| Abstract: | India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Israel in July 2017 made headlines for being the first by an Indian prime minister. However, it was also noteworthy for the large turnout of the Indian diaspora in Tel Aviv at a community event to witness Modi deliver an address. While the Indian communities in other parts of the world like the United Arab Emirates and the United States are well documented, little is known about the Israelis of Indian origin and their current-day links to India. As such, what should one make of Modi's overtures to the Indian diaspora in Israel? What is its value to India and what role can its play in strengthening Indo-Israeli ties? This paper seeks to provide some insights into the past, present and future developments of the Israelis of Indian origin. |
| Date: | 22 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 454 : Water Disputes in India: Andhra Pradesh-Telangana and River Krishna Water-Sharing Disputes |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The water-sharing disputes between Andhra Pradesh and Telangana are the latest in a list of on-going inter-state riparian issues in India. While these disputes are generally in the nature of inter-State disagreements, most of them also impinge on the distribution of constitutional powers between the Union and the States. This paper examines the constitutional mechanisms to deal with water disputes, and the nature of the disputes over River Krishna. It argues that it is difficult for the Indian States to resolve all such disputes. Hence, they should focus on watersharing management through the efficient and effective use of the available water. |
| Date: | 22 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 453 : The Threat of Terrorism: Bangladesh’s Context |
| Author/s: | Md Mustafizur Rahman |
| Abstract: | The threat of terrorism today is very real. Terrorist acts in some form or other are occurring almost daily in the world. Terrorism poses a serious challenge to humanity as a whole. The terrorists evolve various modes of operation and devise increasingly complex ways to carry out their heinous acts with deadly consequences. As such, it is imperative to develop a thorough understanding of their presence in their various enclaves around the world. In recent times, Bangladesh has also been affected by incidences of terror committed, mostly by local extremist groups. As we know, terrorism is a global phenomenon. Logically, any debate on the issue in a local context such as in Bangladesh should, therefore, entail a concomitant focus on global terror |
| Date: | 22 August 2017 |
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| Title: | Insights: 452 : Quo Vadis Pakistan? Yet It Keeps Moving! |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The recent ruling of the Supreme Court in Pakistan to disqualify Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has brought about cascading changes in the political system of the country. Some view these to be damaging to democratic norms. However, in reality, these could actually buttress democratic practices and strengthen rather than weaken positive governance values. On these lines, this paper traces the role of the judiciary in the shaping of Pakistan's political tradition and its somewhat tricky relationship with the executive through the nation's history. |
| Date: | 21 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 451 : Pakistan’s Political Landscape: Potential for Change and Lessons for the Muslim World |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | A unanimous verdict issued on 28 July 2017 by a five-member bench of Pakistan’s Supreme Court ordered Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to vacate his seat in the National Assembly. Without being a member of the National Assembly, he could not continue to serve as prime minister. The verdict was based on the findings of a six-member Joint Investigation Team (JIT) that was established by the court to look into the financial dealings of the prime minister and his children – two sons and a daughter. The JIT uncovered a large number of dealings that seem to defy the Pakistani law. While referring these findings to the National Accountability Bureau for action, the court used a relatively minor offence to remove the prime minister from his position. Why did the court act the way it did and what be the consequences of its action? This paper attempts an answer to this and a number of related questions. |
| Date: | 21 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 450 : The Impact of Japanese and South Korean Official Development Assistance on their Relations with South Asian States |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | In spite of the current state of disarray in global economy, with its susceptibility to financial crises and resultant foreign aid budget cuts, Japan and South Korea have substantially increased their foreign aid, the official development assistance (ODA), in particular, to South Asian countries. This is puzzling. The Japanese and South Korean action certainly draws attention. In fact, Japan has been a key ODA provider for long with its focus on project financing, while South Korea is a rising ODA donor in the region, with its emphasis on enhancing the educational and healthcare sectors in the recipient countries. The active ODA engagement of Japan and South Korea with the region raises several important questions. What does the increase in foreign aid from Japan and South Korea mean to South Asian countries in economic and political terms? How relevant is such ODA in the current globalised economy that provides greater sources of capital even if only on commercial terms? How has South Asia benefitted from the foreign aid from these two countries? This paper addresses these important questions while briefly mapping the ODA situation in South Asia. |
| Date: | 11 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 449 : A High-Altitude Tussle: The Strategic Stakes of Bhutan, China and India |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The prolonged military stand-off between India and China, with no exchange of fire to-date, on the Doklam plateau in the Himalayan range, which Bhutan has portrayed as its territory, has strategic implications for each of these three neighbours. China is bracing to expand its strategic space in the high Himalayas by seeking to build roads in Doklam (also known as Dong Lang) which Beijing considers to be its historical sovereign territory. China says that India was notified in advance about the road construction, meant for “improving local transportation”, “grazing by livestock” and “border troops’ patrolling”.2 However, New Delhi views the Chinese activities and statements as a matter of “serious security implications for India”, particularly for “the determination of the tri-junction boundary point between |
| Date: | 8 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 448 : The United States-India Drone ‘Deal’: Regional and Global Implications |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | During India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Washington in June 2017, he and the United States (US) President Donald Trump agreed to a ‘deal’, whereby India would purchase 22 Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, also known as drones, from the US. This partly reflects the burgeoning importance this platform is acquiring globally in the sphere of defence and security. This paper examines the drone phenomenon and argues that, given their potentially deadly capabilities, there is a need for an international regime with regard to the manufacture, transfer and use of drones. This issue poses a challenge to the international institutions and leadership. |
| Date: | 2 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 447 : Can Nudges help with India’s Sanitation Crisis? |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | Can open defecation (OD) and its ill-effects on public health be contained through the construction of toilets? The evidence seems to suggest not. While India has made considerable progress in developing part of the physical infrastructure to deal with this challenge, deeprooted habits and limitations in the design of toilets and associated sanitation infrastructure are constraining progress. This paper contends that, although the supply of toilets is an essential cog in the wheel, attention needs to be paid to issues that constrain the demand for toilets. Can nudges help with the transition to a society rid of OD? |
| Date: | 31 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 446 : Nudges: Small Behavioural Changes can Enhance Well-being |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | Nudges are a low-cost intervention that works towards inducing individuals to make voluntary choices which can potentially enhance individual and collective well-being. The paper follows up on this assertion with some empirical examples from India, among other places. We do not always act rationally. However our 'irrational' behaviour is often predictable. This predictability allows policymakers to induce desired, albeit voluntary, behavioural changes, or nudge without constraining choices. This paper discusses the analytical underpinnings of nudges and provides a brief survey of actual nudges deployed by policymakers across the world. The concluding part makes a case for the use of nudges to complement policy initiatives in India. |
| Date: | 31 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 445 : The Consequences of Open Defecation in India |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | The consequences of open defecation (OD) in India are devastating. Despite rapid growth and rising incomes over the past 25 years, India continues to have one of the highest incidences of OD in the world, in sharp contrast to other growing economies. This has contributed to the extraordinarily high rates of stunting and wasting among children. Nearly 40 per cent of children suffer from stunting, and one of every two is malnourished. Why is this problem so intractable? |
| Date: | 28 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 444 : Can Demonetisation Catalyse the Quest for a Cashless India? |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | Has demonetisation provided a boost to the quest for a less cash-intensive economy in India? The Indian government embarked on several initiatives to incentivise, persuade and compel the citizenry to adopt cashless means of payment. This was grounded in the belief that, aside from entailing high costs, cash transactions cannot be detected by fiscal authorities or, indeed, by any wing of the government, thus enabling a large segment of the economy to evade taxes. It also challenges policymakers assessing the impact of monetary, fiscal and other regulatory initiatives on the ‘unmeasurable’ informal economy. The shift to non-cash transactions offers a number of other benefits that could eventually help the pursuit of growth with equity. The most significant among these may be digital ‘Direct Benefit Transfers’ – payments to the poor under the federal and state governments’ social welfare programmes. If rendered effectively, this could curb a major avenue for corruption, become a catalyst for a shift to digital payments and radically enhance the efficiency of benefit programmes. India is rapidly developing the infrastructure to facilitate this transition, with some of the props already in place. Demonetisation, at best, may have helped expedite this transition. |
| Date: | 28 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 443 : The India-China Stand-off over a Sino-Bhutanese Disagreement |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | The efforts by Chinese troops to construct a road in the Doklam plateau region in Bhutan in midJune 2017 resulted in a confrontation with the Royal Bhutan Army. Soon after, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs reported that, in coordination with the Bhutanese government, it approached and urged the Chinese troops to desist from changing the status quo. While China claims ownership of the region and has asserted that it has the right to carry out the construction, India has countered that the action is in violation of agreements with Bhutan on the boundary. Both China and India have refused to budge from their positions and they have remained in a stand-off since then. In the interest of the long-term stability of India-China ties, both sides have a shared interest in striving to find a diplomatic solution to the Doklam crisis. The impending visit of Mr Ajit Doval, India's National Security Advisor, to Beijing for a BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) meeting has deep significance in this critical juncture. |
| Date: | 27 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 442 : India and Israel: Cooperation on Water Management |
| Author/s: | Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | India is seeking Israel's expertise in water technology and management techniques. Cooperation between the two countries will enhance India's capacity in the management of water resources but this needs to be supported by water demand management, training of users for the operation and maintenance of technology, and robust legal and regulatory frameworks. |
| Date: | 27 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 441 : An Analysis of India’s Participation in the RCEP Negotiations |
| Author/s: | Chan Jia Hao |
| Abstract: | The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations are aimed at crafting a trade deal to facilitate greater Asian economic integration by the end of the year. This paper analyses India’s engagement with the other RCEP participating countries, reflecting on recent trends in India’s trade and tariff structure with the other RCEP participating countries, and offers suggestions to enhance India’s economic engagement with the rest of the Asia-Pacific |
| Date: | 21 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 440 : Reflections on an Asian Regional Security Architecture |
| Author/s: | Shivshankar Menon |
| Abstract: | Over the course of time, Asian states have succeeded in constructively addressing security issues, despite the relative miscarriages of pan-Asian ideas. Asia today faces several security risks and their corresponding consequences. In this context, an Asian regional security architecture would serve to secure Asia's future. |
| Date: | 19 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 439 : Religion as an Electoral Tool: A Comparative Analysis of India and Indonesia |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | Religion and politics have long had a complex and interdependent relationship in several nation states. This interplay is particularly interesting in the case of democracies. India and Indonesia are two such examples. The election of Yogi Adityanath in India this year was followed closely by the defeat of former Jakarta Governor Basuki Tjahaja Purnama, also known as Ahok, in Indonesia. These two 'religiously-tinged' events have brought to the fore the issue of religion in politics in the respective countries. This paper argues that the political system in each of these two countries has given rise to mechanisms which allow for the 'indirect' use of religion as an electoral tool. However, power and office have a moderating influence on extreme religious ideologies. |
| Date: | 19 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 438 : India and China Competing for Influence in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shamsher M Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The widely-held view that India and China are competing for influence in South Asia has gained currency with the flurry of activities between the two Asian giants and the countries of South Asia over the last decade or so. This, however, can be viewed as a healthy development that all can benefit from. It is in the context of the prevailing post-ideological era and economydriven geopolitics that the perceived race for influence through friendship, connectivity and cooperation in South Asia by China and India needs to be seen and studied. It is a positive that can be nurtured in ways where there are no losers. |
| Date: | 18 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 437 : Pakistan Faces a Widening Fiscal Imbalance |
| Author/s: | Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Pakistan's budget for the fiscal year 2017-18 presents a bleak financial picture. This paper discusses the underlying causes for persistent fiscal deficits that threaten the country's recent economic recovery. |
| Date: | 14 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 436 : Advancing Global Trade Integration: India and the World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement |
| Author/s: | Liyana Othman |
| Abstract: | The World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) entered into force in February 2017 - a reassuring move in improving the flagging state of international trade. As the latest agreement within the Bali Package of the Doha Development Round, the landmark TFA is expected to provide a multitude of benefits relating to the cross-border movement of goods for South Asian WTO members upon full implementation. India has long played an active role within the multilateral trade system, at times being one of the few raising a considered dissenting voice against the consensus during the negotiations. Now, India, along with the rest of South Asia, looks set to benefit tremendously from the TFA, given the mandate outlined in its Foreign Trade Policy (2015-20), its current standing as one of the world's fastest growing economies and its increasing bilateral and multilateral outreach for further global economic integration. |
| Date: | 12 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 435 : India-China Border Tensions: The Lessons not Learnt |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | The latest outbreak of tensions in the Sikkim area of the India-China border can be viewed as a sign of China's hedging against India's increasing closeness to the United States. The tensions also seem to indicate that India's conventional deterrence against China may be eroding. The important lesson from the current tension is that India's strategy of controlling the smaller Himalayan states like Bhutan, as a part of its broader security strategy, no longer appears to be effective. Regardless of the repercussions of these tensions on India's broader security strategy, the real victim of the current border standoff between India and China is, arguably, Bhutan. |
| Date: | 11 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 434 : The Road to the Good and Services Tax – Growing Importance of India’s States |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | The introduction of the Goods and Services Tax in India effective 1 July 2017 is significant, not only as a major reform, but also as an illustration of the growing importance of India's states in the country's economic management. As India graduates from first generation to second generation reforms, the involvement of states is becoming increasingly important in moving the agenda forward. The role of states is increasing, also because they get to spend a larger share of the total public expenditure and are on the frontlines in implementing governance reforms. How states use their growing importance will determine how India performs on growth and welfare on the way forward. |
| Date: | 11 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 433 : India-China Border Dispute: A Historical Enquiry on the Political Selection of Boundary Lines |
| Author/s: | Joe Thomas Karackattu |
| Abstract: | The contestation of the boundary lines claimed by India and China resulted in the 1962 war and remains vexed unto this day. However, examining the boundary-making process reveals that the line each country claims as its 'traditional customary boundary' was not an unambiguous fixed one, and the line was mutable between the 19th and mid-20th centuries. For India and China, the lines emerged from a process of political selection, implying there is enough basis for new interpretations of 'reality' to be introduced to the conversations between the two on the boundary dispute. |
| Date: | 10 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 432 : Nature without Borders: Reconciling the Needs of Wildlife and People in India |
| Author/s: | Ghazala Shahabuddin |
| Abstract: | Protected Areas (PAs) in India represent an attempt to ensure the ecological protection of the country, inclusive of wildlife, ecosystem functions and bio-cultural heritage. Despite a strong legal framework, the PAs face threats from the expanding development and infrastructure projects, poor management and the increasing biotic pressure on ecosystems. In this paper, the effectiveness of the PA network in India is examined from the point of view of socioeconomic sustainability and long-term viability. Moreover, the local- and national-level policies that are required to mainstream the PAs into the national development process are elaborated. A two-pronged approach at two different levels - re-aligning national policies to encourage green growth and mitigating costs to local communities - is suggested. |
| Date: | 5 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 431 : Farm Loan Waivers in India: Good Politics but Poor Economics? |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The government in the Indian state of Maharashtra has bitten the bullet. It has announced farm loan waivers which will cause a gap of about ₹32,000 crore (S$6.72 billion) in its budget. Much is being said about the political mileage that the party in power will get. This move, which followed the pre-poll announcement of farm loan waiver in another Indian state, Uttar Pradesh, has fuelled demands from farmers in other states too. Is the announcement such a political masterstroke? What will be its repercussions on the fiscal health of the state? The jury is still out. What is now becoming a pattern is the possibility of similar announcements being made by other state governments which will soon be going in for elections. Considering the fact that the fiscal health of most of the states is not good, the moves may crowd out capital expenditure, usually earmarked for asset creation. |
| Date: | 3 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 430 : India-Israel Relations under Narendra Modi: A Robust Partnership in the Making |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy |
| Abstract: | India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to visit Israel from 4 to 6 July 2017 to commemorate the 25th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two countries. In a short period of three years since coming to power, the Modi government has invested considerable political capital to develop New Delhi-Tel Aviv ties. As a consequence, India-Israel relations have gone through a paradigm shift during that period. The visit, a first by an Indian prime minister, could provide a further boost to the relationship between the two countrie |
| Date: | 3 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 429 : The Abolition of Australia’s 457 Visa: Impact on India’s Skilled Labour Mobility |
| Author/s: | Liyana Othman |
| Abstract: | The state visit by Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull to India in early April 2017 concluded with the signing of a number of economically significant agreements. While it would usually be considered an important development in bilateral relations, terse statements released by the Australian prime minister in the wake of the visit showed that not all was well between the two nations. This was compounded by the abolishment of the 457 visa, popular with many skilled Indians seeking economic opportunities in Australia. The restructuring of the visa appears to be in line with the anti-globalisation sentiments in developed countries, where the issue of freer movement of skilled labour from relatively less developed economies such as India continues to be one of the key hurdles faced at the negotiating table. |
| Date: | 3 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 428 : Trump-Modi Summit: Keeping United States-India Ties on Course |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The meeting between IndiaÔÇÖs Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the United States (US) President Donald Trump in Washington on 26 June 2017 was not followed by any major announcements in such areas as defence, civil nuclear energy, trade and greater Indian access to the American job market. However, the outcome of the visit will still be of considerable interest to both China and Pakistan. The focus now shifts to how the China-Pakistan factor may shape the US-India equation. |
| Date: | 30 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 427 : China’s Vision of Blue Partnership: Convergence with India’s Blue Economy Initiative? |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy |
| Abstract: | China has come out with the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road (MSR) Vision, which has some elements different from its earlier Belt and Road vision, and it proposes to forge a ‘blue partnership’ along the MSR. India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government also has the vision of a blue economy. Both countries have several agreements which complement each other’s ideas. This paper highlights the salient features and new elements of China’s vision for maritime cooperation, and discusses the converging interests of India and China. |
| Date: | 29 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 426 : Political Economy of Food: A Case for India-Bangladesh Cooperation |
| Author/s: | Habibul Haque Khondker |
| Abstract: | The food security of low-income groups of people in Bangladesh has been affected by a spate of natural disasters in 2017. At the same time, neighbouring India has had a bumper production of food grains and a consequential plunge in prices and distress among farmers. The two countries, which have been unable to agree on the sharing of the waters of the cross-border Teesta River, could perhaps now explore rice diplomacy as a confidence-building measure, with India giving Bangladesh food grains as a mixture of humanitarian aid and export at price that the latter can afford. |
| Date: | 28 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 425 : Rise of the Islamists in the Maldives |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | There is more to the Maldives than just its idyllic beaches and tropical sea waters around its many islands. The country has also been witnessing a rise of Islamist groups in recent times. As result, its society and politics have witnessed notable changes which are reflected in some of the recent foreign policy decisions taken by the government. These developments have also resulted in indoctrinated Maldivian youth fighting 'jihad' in different parts of Asia. It is worrying times for the Maldives. |
| Date: | 27 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 424 : India’s Security Policy: Ideas, Threats and Capabilities |
| Author/s: | Sumit Ganguly |
| Abstract: | An admixture of ideas, threats and resources has shaped India's security policies. This paper shows that this combination of factors has produced three distinct phases in their evolution. It also discusses the current security challenges that the country confronts. |
| Date: | 22 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 423 : Myanmar as a Bridge between its Neighbours |
| Author/s: | Marie Lall |
| Abstract: | What is Myanmar's role in the region and the engagement it has had with its western and eastern neighbours, and allies in light of recent reforms? The paper shows that the new National League for Democracy government is continuing on the path set by President Thein Sein's administration that was looking east rather than westwards. Myanmar sees its relations with its western neighbours, in particular, India but also Bangladesh as less important than its engagement with China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations and Japan. The paper focuses on two aspects of domestic policy that have resulted in changes in external engagement: the peace process (with China's involvement) and the rise of Buddhist nationalism (creating issues, in particular, with Bangladesh but also Malaysia). Lastly, the paper looks at Myanmar's foreign economic priorities, which link it closely to China and Japan. |
| Date: | 20 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 422 : What Drives the Indo-Pakistani Rivalry? |
| Author/s: | Sumit Ganguly |
| Abstract: | What drives the Indo-Pakistani rivalry? This paper challenges a number of extant explanations, ranging from the memories of partition, innate Hindu-Muslim discord, the Pakistani claim to Kashmir and mutual misperceptions. Instead, it draws on a body of literature in international relations to argue that the relationship involves two states with markedly different preferences. One of them, India, is a status quo power and a security seeker. The other, Pakistan, is a revisionist state, which is dissatisfied with the territorial arrangements in the region and seeks to upend them. The paper then traces the sources of PakistanÔÇÖs revisionist behaviour. |
| Date: | 20 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 421 : Some Observations on the Chinese Media Coverage of India and the South Asian Region |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | The Chinese media's reporting on India and the rest of South Asia is generally in conformity with China's national interests and development objectives. Its reportage usually places greater focus on highlighting China's successes and achievements vis-?á-vis India and on presenting the latter in a less than positive light as and when the opportunities present themselves. |
| Date: | 20 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 420 : Chinese Projects in South Asia under the Belt and Road Initiative: Disrupted by Debt? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | Moody's downgrade of China's currency ratings has refocused attention on the pitfalls of high public debt in China. Apart from long-term macroeconomic risks, rising indebtedness has serious implications for China's ability to invest in the overseas projects it has committed to. This paper studies the implications in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from a South Asian perspective. It argues investments under the BRI in recipient South Asian countries might be affected and new conditionalities for ongoing projects might be insisted as China struggles to balance conflicting goals of reducing debt and sustaining external investments |
| Date: | 16 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 419 : Widening Gulf among Gulf Arabs: Implications for South and Southeast Asia |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The simmering rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Qatar has now assumed the proportion of a major rift that has dichotomised the region. The impact of the resulting conflagration threatens to engulf the Middle East and perhaps the world. It has the potential to bring to the fore all intra-mural differences within the Islamic world. The issue will require adept and skilful handling to defuse, and, currently, such leadership at the regional, global and multilateral levels is lacking. Should the situation exacerbate, tiny Qatar may suffer in the short run but, eventually, the larger and stronger Saudi Arabia may end up paying a higher price. |
| Date: | 13 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 418 : Three Years of Narendra Modi’s Government – An Assessment on the Economic Front |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | In the three years it has been in office, the Narendra Modi government has notched up notable accomplishments, especially in improving the investment climate and deepening financial inclusion. At the same time, it has disappointed on the jobs front and in establishing a clear policy line on public sector banks. The government’s bold decision on demonetisation was controversial and it is too early to say whether it has been a success. The jury is still out also on whether the government has got its act together on improving governance. Finally, the ruling party has to decide whether it will pursue the economic agenda with undivided attention or whether it will also simultaneously further its social agenda. |
| Date: | 13 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 417 : The Strategic Significance of the Modi-Putin Summit in Saint Petersburg |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The meeting between Russia’s President Vladimir Putin and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Saint Petersburg on 1 and 2 June 2017 acquired unusual strategic importance in diplomatic, not defence-related terms. India and Pakistan, the estranged South Asian neighbours, will join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as new members at its summit which begins on 8 June 2017. This marks a challenging prospect in the Russia-India engagement itself, going forward. China and Russia are prime movers in the SCO. India’s recent refusal to join Beijing’s global-scale connectivity initiative which has been endorsed by Putin, and Moscow’s growing interest in good relations with Pakistan, are factors that Modi may have to reckon with in the existing Russia-China-India trilateral forum. |
| Date: | 6 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 416 : Donald Trump’s Visit to the Middle East: Pilgrimage for Peace or Invitation to Instability? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | United States (US) President Donald Trump has just concluded his first trip overseas. He visited the region from which the three major Abrahamic faiths emanated: Christianity, Islam and Judaism. Thereafter, he travelled to Brussels and Sicily for the summits of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the Group of Seven industrialised countries. This paper focuses on the first leg of this tour. It was a learning process that may moderate his current style in terms of smoothening its sharp edges. |
| Date: | 5 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 415 : The ‘Electoral Bond Initiative’ in India: Prospects for Authorised Campaign Finances |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The process and magnitude of electoral funding have come under severe public scrutiny in India. It is an acknowledged fact that elections entail a huge amount of monetary resources. Obviously, such large amounts cannot be raised through individual- or retail-donations. Corporate agencies are rumoured to be making sizeable donations to political parties. The nature of such funding is opaque. The public, therefore, desires that political parties disclose the sources of their funds and maintain transparency in their dealings. Seized of the matter, the Indian government has, in the current year’s budget, introduced an innovative proposal of electoral bonds which appears to be the first of its kind anywhere in the world. The announcement, which has received very diverse reactions, is certainly a step in the direction of attempting to cleanse electoral funding. The scheme for issuance of such bonds has not been announced as yet. It has to be seen how effective the bonds will be in introducing transparency. |
| Date: | 1 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 414 : The Case of Kulbhushan Sudhir Jadhav: Legal, Political and Diplomatic Implications |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | On 3 March 2016, Kulbhushan Sudhir Jadhav, an Indian national, was arrested in Pakistan over charges of terrorism and spying for India's intelligence agency. However, India has denied such allegations and maintained that it has no official links with him. On 10 April 2017, he was sentenced to death by a Field General Court Martial in Pakistan. Following an approach by India, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) stayed the hanging of Jadhav on 18 May 2017. It increasingly appears that Jadhav's fate depends more on the status of IndiaPakistan relationship than the final verdict of the ICJ. |
| Date: | 30 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 413 : India’s Bad Debt Problem |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | Notwithstanding a host of accomplishments, the biggest promise by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his electoral campaign for the high office - reviving investment and creating jobs ' remains unfulfilled. Obstructing this is the bad debt problem of the Indian banks which have defied resolution to reach crisis proportions. Earlier in May 2017, the government amended the law to invest the Reserve Bank of India with extraordinary powers to direct the process of resolving this crisis. This step has raised a number of concerns even as the prospects of its success are uncertain. A resolution of the problem of bad debts will lead to the next big challenge - of recapitalising the public sector banks. The government will then face limited options. Whether it will finally settle for privatising the public sector banks remains a tantalising question. |
| Date: | 24 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 412 : Actualising East: India in a Multipolar Asia |
| Author/s: | Dhruva Jaishankar |
| Abstract: | After years of a ‘Look East’ policy that recognised the importance of the Asia-Pacific region for Indian interests, the Indian government decided to upgrade it rhetorically to ‘Act East’. The objective of the ‘Act East’ policy is to ensure a multipolar Asia, through deeper institutional engagement, land and maritime connectivity, and security partnerships with Southeast and East Asia. While institutional engagement and security cooperation have improved considerably over the past two decades, connectivity remains a work in progress. For New Delhi to ‘Actualise East,’ it will require a rethinking of the country’s China policy in the light of developments there, putting nuts and bolts to improving India’s connectivity with Bangladesh and Southeast Asia, and prioritising Indian Ocean security. |
| Date: | 23 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 411 : The Belt and Road Initiative: China Acts ‘Global’, India Plays ‘Local’ |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | Chinese President Xi Jinping has formally launched his ‘act-global initiative’ of creating a networked world which will have, at its core, Asia-Europe connectivity, for a start. India’s absence from Xi’s go-global launch in Beijing on 14 May 2017 has not cast any shadow over his efforts to think of alternative globalisation and translate that vision into a reality. India, therefore, needs to present its genuine local concerns in a manner acceptable to the international community. Indeed, New Delhi can and must do so without appearing eager, as at present, to take the wind out of China’s sails of a new-wave globalisation. |
| Date: | 23 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 410 : Pakistan’s Relations with Kuwait: Furthering Strategic Cooperation with the Gulf |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif visited Kuwait on 6 and 7 March 2017. The key objective of his visit was to persuade Kuwait to ease visa restrictions on Pakistani citizens. The issue of Pakistan’s disproportionate trade imbalance with Kuwait was also taken up during meetings with Kuwaiti rulers. This visit was also an opportunity for the Pakistani delegation to canvas for foreign direct investment projects in Pakistan. This paper provides an analysis of the relationship between Pakistan and Kuwait. It also identifies possible areas for future bilateral and multilateral strategic cooperation. |
| Date: | 16 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 409 : Modi, Hasina and Mamata: The Triangular Tryst with Trust |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | India and Bangladesh are generally seen to be two friendliest South Asian neighbours. The credit is largely owed to the relationship of trust that has developed between the two national leaders, Prime Ministers Narendra Modi of India and Sheikh Hasina Wazed of Bangladesh. However, there are complexities woven into the relationship between the two countries that have deep historical roots in the way Kolkata and Dhaka have related to each other for over a century. All sides, including New Delhi, need to take note of and respond to these issues if the relationship is to be made sustainable. The structure of trust between the apex leaders will need to be expanded to include Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee of India's border state of West Bengal, who holds the key to the resolution of the critical Indo-Bangla differences on cross-border water sharing. Importantly, the Indian government would need to play a disproportionately greater role to make efforts to bring the aspirations for a potentially very positive and mutually-rewarding partnership to fruition. |
| Date: | 4 May 2017 |
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| Title: | 408 : The Rising Importance of Afghanistan and South-West Asia in China’s Perspective and Global Politics |
| Author/s: | Dr Faramarz Tamanna |
| Abstract: | Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan, known as South Asia's West Front, has opened a new phase in Chinese foreign policy through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The BRI has tremendously helped China rise as a game changer in the global transition of power. What is important to highlight here is the importance of Afghanistan, as well as Iran and Pakistan due to the potential threats they pose to crucial Chinese initiatives in the region, namely, the ChinaPakistan Economic Corridor, the Gwadar Port and the BRI. The social, cultural and political atmosphere within these three countries make them a potential source of insecurity in the region, with roots in extremism, terrorism and separatism. This cannot be ignored in Chinese foreign policy while it is investing huge amounts of capital in the region. It is important to note that the only state that could provide a common stage to facilitate opportunities for cooperation between China and the United States (US) in this region, is Afghanistan. US-China cooperation in Afghanistan could help create security and protect the region's major developmental initiatives at the same time. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 407 : South Asia Today: The Need To Reset Regional Relations |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of a rapidly changing world, there is a sad consistency in the abysmally low level of regional cooperation in South Asia. The region has vast potentials, and the author argues that in order to achieve their full fruition, there is a need for a fundamental reset of intra-regional relations. The alternative would be a calamity in all respects. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 406 : Pakistan in the Economic Cooperation Organization |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | On 1 March 2017, Pakistan hosted the 13th Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) Summit. This paper analyses Pakistan's involvement in the ECO. It acknowledges the desire of the leaders of the ECO to boost trade volumes and regional connectivity. The paper makes the case that this can only be achieved by developing infrastructure and implementing transit trade agreements. It further contends that Pakistan, as a state, has multi-regional characteristics which allow it to play an instrumental role in bridging regions. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 405 : Sri Lanka’s Role in the Indian Ocean and the Changing Global Dynamic |
| Author/s: | Harsha de Silva |
| Abstract: | In light of the regional and global developments, the government of Sri Lanka has embarked on a mission to leverage Sri Lanka’s location in the nautical corridor between the east and west, and make it a hub of the Indian Ocean, as well as a key transhipment port for the Bay of Bengal trade. It aims to maximise relations with regional players such as China, Japan and India to encourage trade and foreign investments in Sri Lanka. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 404 : ‘Glocal’ Citizenship and the Bangladeshis in Diaspora: Preliminary Considerations |
| Author/s: | Habibul Haque Khondker |
| Abstract: | Citizenship in the era of globalisation has moved beyond the four walls of the nation state. People on the move who have left their homeland in search of employment aspire to new identities and rights in their host countries which they strive to conflate with the rights and identities they were born into. This paper examines this new form of ‘glocal’ citizenship that seeks to combine the global and the local, with reference to the Bangladeshi diaspora. |
| Date: | 28 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 403 : Hasina’s Visit to New Delhi: An Assessment |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | For India, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s recent visit to New Delhi may be a successful one, but it has generated mixed reactions in Dhaka. An inconclusive deal over the sharing of the Teesta waters, and India-Bangladesh defence agreements and memoranda of understanding have given reasons to many in Bangladesh to target Hasina’s government |
| Date: | 20 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 402 : A Himalayan Sojourn and China-India Chill |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The latest visit by the Tibetan Buddhist leader, the Fourteenth Dalai Lama, to Tawang in India's Arunachal Pradesh, which China claims as its own territory, has snowballed into a crisis in the complex relations between these two mega-state neighbours in Asia. Beijing tends to see this as Delhi's choice of courting a crisis that might only damage the foundation of their relationship. Indeed, their respective policies of 'One China' and a less-articulated 'One India' may now acquire a sharp competitive colour. |
| Date: | 13 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 401 : Pakistan-Bahrain Relations: Strengthening Ties with the Gulf |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | This paper focuses on the growing relationship between Pakistan and Bahrain. An analysis of this relationship shows that its key impetus was the visit of Bahrain's King Hamad to Pakistan in 2014.This led to the follow up visit of Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to Manama (Bahrain) in 2015. Bilateral political consultations took place in 2016. Bahrain's Minister of Foreign Affairs Shaikh Khalid Bin Ahmed Mohammed Al Khalifa visited Pakistan from the 56 February 2017. There are four areas of interest that formulates relations between the two countries Trade, Foreign Direct Investments (FDI), Employment of Pakistani labour in Bahrain, as well as Defense and security cooperation. |
| Date: | 11 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 400 : The Indian Ocean: A Historical Perspective |
| Author/s: | Sanjeev Sanyal |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a historical analysis of present-day events in the Indian Ocean. The author looks at the tumultuous history of the Indian Ocean, presenting what has happened before as an insight into current global dynamics and the realignment of strategic powers in the Indian Ocean. |
| Date: | 11 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 399 : Security in the Indian Ocean |
| Author/s: | Shivshankar Menon |
| Abstract: | The world's centre of political and economic gravity is moving eastwards to Asia. The maritime order in the Indian Ocean is calm but fragile due to the lack of an overarching security architecture and a diverse range of traditional and non-traditional security threats facing the region. Maritime cooperation agreements, naval risk reduction measures and negotiations around code of conduct, policing and applicability of UNCLOS are needed in peace time to keep the Indian Ocean secure in the future. |
| Date: | 11 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 398 : The Jakarta IORA Summit: A Way Ahead for Stable Indian Ocean Maritime Order? |
| Author/s: | Yogendra Kumar |
| Abstract: | Commemorating the twentieth anniversary of the establishment of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), leaders of the 21 member-states have charted a wide-ranging agenda of cooperation. Meeting in Jakarta in March 2017, the IORA leaders outlined the first steps towards ensuring stability and promoting growth in the organisation's vast maritime space. While the challenges are many within the region and from beyond it as well, an available means of generating the requisite strategic trust among the member-countries is to synergise the efforts of IORA and the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS). |
| Date: | 5 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 397 : The Teesta Muddle: Can India and Bangladesh Find a Way Out? |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | In recent years Teesta water sharing treaty has been one of the major issues of political and economic concerns between India and Bangladesh. Bangladesh needs a larger quantity of water from the trans-boundary river Teesta for economic and political reasons, and the same factors guide the Chief Minister of the Indian state of West Bengal 'Ms Mamata Banerjee' to not agree to share about fifty percent of the waters with Bangladesh. |
| Date: | 3 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 396 : Uttar Pradesh Sweep Boosts BJP and Modi |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The highlight of the election result for the five Indian States that went to polls in FebruaryMarch 2017 was the huge win for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh. The BJP's victory in India's largest State is a clear signal that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his party are undisputed frontrunners in 2019 when the next general election are scheduled to be held. Though the Congress won in Punjab, it is losing ground across the country, raising questions about its ability to challenge the BJP in 2019. |
| Date: | 16 March 2017 |
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| Title: | 395 : Demonetization – Evaluating The Costs And Benefits |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | Official data released a few weeks ago have indicated that the negative impact of the Modi government's decision to demonetize high value currency has not been as heavy as feared. Notwithstanding this better than expected growth estimate, demonetization has taken a heavy toll. Output of as much as one percent of GDP may have been lost. Besides, hundreds of millions of people, especially low income households, suffered pain and hardship. To compensate for that, the government will have to show benefits by way of a sustainable increase in the tax to GDP ratio and enduring improvement in the investment climate. |
| Date: | 13 March 2017 |
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| Title: | 394 : New Resolve in the Face of Renewed Terrorism in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Pakistan has been hit by a new wave of terrorism. A series of attacks were carried out in February 2017, mostly in the tribal belt along the country's border with Afghanistan. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and some groups associated with that organization claimed responsibility for most of these incidents. These were followed by a suicide attack in Lahore in front of the Punjab Assembly building and one in rural Sindh. The latter killed almost 100 people who had gone to the popular shrine of Hazrat Shahbaz Qalandar. The Pakistan authorities responded by carrying out a number of operations inside the country in which 100 terrorists were reported to have been killed. On 22 February, the military was called in to help the civilian authorities with the return of large-scale terrorism. This paper examines the portents of these attacks for Pakistan and its political development and its relations with neighbouring Afghanistan |
| Date: | 2 March 2017 |
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| Title: | 393 : Parrikar’s Visit to Dhaka: Significance for Security in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar recently visited Bangladesh to create ground for defence cooperation between India and Bangladesh. His visit came shortly after Bangladesh bought two submarines from China. This paper will focus on the growing defence cooperation between India and Bangladesh and the security ramifications for the region. |
| Date: | 23 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 392 : Polling Begins in Uttar Pradesh: No Clear Winner in Sight |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Polling has begun in the seven-phase Assembly election in the Indian State of Uttar Pradesh, which will be completed on 8 March 2017. The election remains a triangular contest between the Samajwadi Party, the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The ruling Samajwadi Party has, however, received a fillip with Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav having emerged stronger after an end to months of feuding within the party and an electoral alliance with the Congress. |
| Date: | 16 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 391 : India Budget 2017: Fighting High Public Debt |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The latest Indian Budget draws attention to the persistence of structural imbalance between revenue and expenditure that forces the Government to resort to borrowings. The imbalance must be corrected for achieving a sustainable public debt. This paper discusses the structural imbalance, the vicious cycle of public debt, challenges in achieving a sustainable debt path and the prospects for reducing public debt. |
| Date: | 14 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 390 : Waiting for Hasina: Gains, Bargains and Expectations |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | Whenever it happens, the much awaited visit of Sheikh Hasina to India is going to affect south Asia's security architecture, and have an impact on the future of India-Bangladesh relationships. In the recent past this much-awaited visit has been postponed a few times due to political differences between the Union government and the Chief Minister of West Bengal over demonetization of Indian currency. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 389 : Has Demonetisation Impaired Policy Credibility? |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | In order to execute policies effectively, governments need to ensure that a policy initiative is predicated on realistic assumptions borne out by past experience, existing institutions and the structure of the economy; that it is internally consistent and cognisant of the interests and expected behaviour of different stakeholders; that the policy instruments and outcomes are measurable and directly related to desired outcomes; and that a clear framework is in place to assess outcomes and provide feedback to policymakers. This insights discusses these principles in the context of demonetisation and finds it lacking in internal consistency. It goes against the thrust of policy initiatives undertaken by the government thus far, that provided a clear indication of the direction in which the government wished to direct the economy. Demonetisation may have impaired credibility of future policy initiatives. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 388 : Will Demonetisation Shrink the Informal Economy? |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | On November 8, in one of the most radical monetary policy initiatives in recent decades in a growing economy, India demonetised Rs 500 (S$10.50) and Rs 1000 (S$21) currency bills accounting for over 86% of the currency in circulation. The main objective was to curb the parallel economy. As the objectives of demonetisation were further clarified, it was evident that the government sought to create an environment in which the informal sector, where nearly all transactions are carried out with cash, was induced to 'formalise' and brought under the scrutiny of tax and regulatory authorities, thereby shrinking a large inefficient segment of the economy. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 387 : Political Uncertainty in Tamil Nadu: a Key Indian State |
| Author/s: | S Narayan and P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The raging politics of succession to the late J Jayalalithaa, who virtually strode like a Colossus as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, has exposed the fragility of even a stable region. There is much speculation about how the State Governor, an appointee of the Central Government, might resolve the current stalemate. A few scenarios are sketched out in this paper. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 386 : Indian Parliament: The House needs to be More Credible on Penalising Errant Members |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The Aam Aadmi Party MP, Bhagwant Mann, was briefly suspended in end-2016 for compromising the security of the Indian Parliament. This paper argues that though the Indian Parliament has since its inception used its powers to institute inquiry committees and penalise misconduct by members, it has been less successful in complex corruption cases such as the one during the 2008 trust vote where several players were involved. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 385 : Pakistan at Davos: World Economic Forum 2017 |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | Pakistan's Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif participated in the World Economic forum (WEF) 2017 held in Davos from 17-20 January 2017. Over the four days, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif held bilateral meetings with Sweden, Switzerland, Sri Lanka, Norway, Netherlands and the United Nations. During those discussions the prospects of deepening relations with the above countries had emerged. The Kashmir issue was also constantly raised whenever Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif held talks with foreign leaders at the WEF. He also met with Alibaba's Chairman Jack Ma and Microsoft's founder Mr Bill Gates as well as several other global corporate giants. This paper provides a detailed analysis of Pakistan's participation in the World Economic Forum 2017. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 384 : The States of South Asia: A Politico-Strategic Reality Check |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | We are in the midst of a rapidly changing world where old paradigms are shifting, and traditional alliances and linkages are also transforming. Tensions in some parts of the world are rising. At such a time it is incumbent upon the States of South Asia not to allow their energies to be sapped by crises and disputes peripheral to their interests and to focus, instead, on progress and development in their own region, expand cooperation and connectivity, or run the risk of lagging far behind other parts of the contemporary world. |
| Date: | 6 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 383 : Pakistan’s Relations with Oman: An Important Gateway to the Gulf |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | From 11-14 January 2017, Oman’s Chairman of the Council of State (Upper House), Dr. Yahya bin Mahfoodh Salim Al-Manthri led an eight member parliamentary delegation to Pakistan. Among other initiatives discussed, Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and Dr Yahya agreed to start a ferry service shuttling between Karachi, Gawadar and Muscat (Oman).Pakistan and Oman share a very close bilateral relationship linked through historical ties, ethnicity, culture and commonalities in foreign policy. This paper is an analysis of the implications of Dr Yahya’s visit and provides an overview of Pakistan-Oman relations as well its benefits to the entire Gulf region. |
| Date: | 24 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 382 : The Deepening Rohingya Crisis: Will it Engulf the Region? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The simmering 'Rohingya issue' in Myanmar is rapidly threatening to engulf the neighbouring regions. Initially, a problem of domestic instability and violence in the Rakhine State of Myanmar, it has transformed into a regional crisis with a refugee surge that has involved several of Myanmar's neighbours including Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Malaysia had recently convened an Extraordinary Mmeeting of the Foreign Ministers of Islamic Organization for Cooperation (OIC) to address the burgeoning crisis. This was the start of a process that could internationalize the issue and bring opprobrium to the Myanmar authorities at a point in time when they require international support for their fledgling democracy. Furthermore the fear of the radicalization of the Rohingyas, and the exploitation by Islamist extremists of the situation remain genuine and growing |
| Date: | 23 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 381 : Conflict in Balochistan |
| Author/s: | Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | The year 2016 saw an eruption of violence in Balochistan. This paper examines the nature of conflict in the province and the role played by key stakeholders. It recommends four priority areas for Pakistan's leadership to focus on, in order to achieve peace and stability in Balochistan |
| Date: | 20 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 380 : Forthcoming Assembly Elections in India’s Punjab: A challenge to the Ruling Coalition |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | The Legislative Assembly elections in the sub-national Indian State of Punjab are slated for 4 February 20171. At stake are 117 seats, and the ruling alliance, consisting of Shiromani Akali Dal and the Bharatiya Janata Party (SAD-BJP), is seeking a third term in office after having won the last elections in 2012. This paper argues that the SAD-BJP alliance is likely to face an uphill task now. The reported surge in anti-incumbency sentiment is due to the ruling coalition’s inability to deal with social ills such as high unemployment, the drug menace and the plight of debt-ridden farmers. The family of the incumbent Chief Minister Parkash Singh Badal has also come under fire for allegedly using its political connections to advance its business interests. These factors may dampen the ruling party’s vote in the upcoming elections, according to observers. |
| Date: | 19 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 379 : India’s Demonetisation: The Pain-Gain Imbalance |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | On 8 November 2016, India demonetised around 86 per cent of its currency in circulation by declaring bank notes of 500 rupees and 1000 rupees as illegal tender. The ostensible objectives behind the move were to seize black money and fake currency and facilitate the country's transition to a more digital and cash-less economy. Two months after demonetisation, there is focus on what it achieved. This paper analyses whether demonetisation was able to unearth black money. It also discusses the impact on the Indian economy and the importance of establishing that the pain and hardship caused by the move was indeed worthwhile. |
| Date: | 18 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 378 : Bilateral Economic Interests of India and China: Rethinking respective roles in an evolving world economy |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | China and India are two leading emerging economies of the world today. As neighbouring Asian economies, mutual economic interests of the two nations continue to evolve amidst various developments in the world economy. This insight seeks to address the developments in the India-China economic landscape commenting on possible areas of concentration to maximise mutual benefits going forward. |
| Date: | 17 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 377 : Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections: Pivotal State braces for multi-cornered contest |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Of the five Indian States going to elections in February-March 2017, Uttar Pradesh (UP) is the most important. Despite the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) having swept the 2014 national election in UP, the coming Assembly poll is likely to be a three-cornered contest between the BJP, the ruling Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party, with the Congress as a fourth and minor player. |
| Date: | 17 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 376 : Climate Change: An Early Trump Inflicted Wound |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Donald Trump is set on reversing President Obama's approach to climate change. The current president used all the executive authority at his disposal to constrain the development of the hydrocarbon sector in the United States. His successor, by nominating for his cabinet people such as Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil's Chairman, and former Texas Governor Rick Perry as Energy Secretary, has set the course towards increasing reliance on domestically produced oil and gas. If that was the outcome of his presidency, it would seriously compromise international attempts to contain global warming. The Asian continent would be one of the most seriously affected world regions. Rising seas will seriously damage the economies of the area's numerous islands, concentrated mostly in the continent's southeast. This was one reason why these countries pressed the Paris summiteers to agree on a lower target - 1.5 degrees Celsius rather than 2 degrees - as the limit not to be crossed by the world community. Some of Asia's largest cities that are on the coast will also face serious consequences. In South Asia and China, rapid melting of glaciers in the vast mountain ranges will produce first massive floods followed by sharp reductions in the flow of water through their large rivers. Climate change will also have social consequences as millions of displaced people will seek safer grounds to live. Once again Asia will be seriously affected. |
| Date: | 9 January 2017 |
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