| Title: | 43 : An Overview of the November-December 2008 Provincial Elections in India |
| Author/s: | Paranjoy Guha Thakurta |
| Abstract: | The outcome of the elections to the legislative assemblies of five Indian provinces or states, namely, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Mizoram and Rajasthan, that became known on 8 December 2008, indicates that voters in the world’s largest democracy are becoming increasingly mature. Even as votes are cast in favour of candidates and political parties that provide (and not merely promise) good governance, anti-incumbency sentiments remain pronounced in many parts of the country. In addition, India’s voters – poor and uneducated though many of them may be – appear to be less prone to be influenced by emotive issues related to terrorism, religion, caste and community and seem to be more concerned with what could be considered substantive issues pertaining to economic and social development. The results of the recently-concluded assembly elections have made the country’s two largest political parties, the Indian National Congress (INC) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), introspect about their future while drawing up strategies in the run-up to the forthcoming fifteenth |
| Date: | 17 December 2008 |
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| Title: | 42 : Pakistan’s Economic Crisis and the IMF Bailout Package |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a US$7.6 billion bailout package to prevent Pakistan from defaulting on its external debt. The 23-month Stand-By Arrangement under the Fund's fast-track Emergency Financing Mechanism has provided an immediate US$3.1 billion funding to strengthen the country's fast deteriorating foreign exchange reserves. The programme seeks to preserve social stability and restore investor confidence in Pakistan by addressing its current macro-economic imbalances. At the same time, it sends a strong signal to the international donor community about the country's improved macroeconomic prospects. |
| Date: | 9 December 2008 |
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| Title: | 41 : Some Approaches to Pricing Controls for Patented Drugs in India |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow and Head of Research at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Government of India has constituted a Group of Ministers (GOM) to finalise the National Pharmaceutical Policy. One of the issues before the GOM is the question of price controls for patented drugs and formulations. Though such controls are distortionary, it appears that there is a direction to propose such controls. This paper examines the features of price control mechanisms in different countries and suggests two alternatives. The first is a Vietnam-like approach where prices are negotiated for government purchases, and are merely intimated and approved for public markets. The second is a mechanism where the price fixed is not higher than the lowest in any of the comparator countries. The paper describes the processes involved in making this mechanism work. |
| Date: | 1 December 2008 |
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| Title: | 40 : Locking in Private Investment in Indian Agriculture |
| Author/s: | Romar Correa, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Experience has conclusively established that investments in agriculture made by developing countries are pro-growth and pro-poor.1 Agriculture continues to provide a labour-intensive source of employment, cheap food, raw materials, labour, savings, and the demand for non-agricultural goods. Yet, over the last three decades, there has been a significant systemic bias against the rural economy in the allocation of public resources. This scenario is inefficient because no developed economy of significant size became so without the agricultural sector recording substantial productivity gains. |
| Date: | 12 November 2008 |
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| Title: | 39 : For Illiberal Finance: Building Dams, Constructing Conduits |
| Author/s: | Romar Correa |
| Abstract: | The context of financial liberalisation in India was the inefficiencies created by the government's control of prices and quantities in the financial markets. One alleged legacy has been the stockpiling of non-performing assets in connection with funds requisitioned for given sectors. Here, as well as elsewhere, more discrimination must be exercised in passing judgment. In Appendix Table III.29 (A) of the Report on Trend and Progress of Banking in India 2006-2007 by the Reserve Bank of India, 2007, it is stated that non-performing assets of public sector banks are 60 percent in connection with the priority sector, and 40 percent in connection with the non-priority sector. Reform has meant the cautious relaxing of these constraints. The recent worldwide conflagration has brought to the fore the inherent fragility of financially sophisticated economies. The dynamics of modern economies is written by real-financial couplings. Over good times, conservative postures give way to excessive risktaking. Financial innovations abound, securitisation being a recent illustration. At some time during the euphoric upswing, the correspondence between securities and the underlying assets is called and then a downward cascade results. In the case of developing countries as well, the link between financial liberalisation and crises is quite robust. |
| Date: | 12 November 2008 |
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| Title: | 38 : India-United States Relations under the Obama Administration |
| Author/s: | Sanjaya Baru, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | United States President-elect Barack Obama's most recent and most detailed comment on relations with India is contained in the personal letter he addressed to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh when the latter visited Washington D. C. in September 2008. Obama said, "I would like to see United States-India relations grow across the board to reflect our shared interests, shared values, shared sense of threats, and ever burgeoning ties between our two economies and societies." |
| Date: | 10 November 2008 |
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| Title: | 37 : Inter-Regionalism and its Possibilities |
| Author/s: | Ong Keng Yong, Ambassador-at-Large at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Singapore |
| Date: | 19 September 2008 |
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| Title: | 36 : Bangladesh-China-Northeast India: Opportunities and Anxieties |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A recent workshop in Kolkata on Southern Silk Route: Historical Links and Contemporary Convergences explored the historical connections between Bangladesh, China,1 India,2 and Myanmar (also known as BICM). These countries were believed to be connected via the Southern Silk Route for centuries.3 The workshop that drew nearly 30 academics and diplomats from different parts of the world also examined how century-old economic and cultural linkages can be re-exploited for economic and other benefits for the region's roughly 300 million people. |
| Date: | 8 September 2008 |
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| Title: | 35 : The Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence: A Profile |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In the past few weeks, Pakistan has come under intense pressure from the United States, Afghanistan and India to curb alleged involvement of its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in terrorist activities. Such pressure has built rapidly in the aftermath of bomb blasts, some carried out by suicide bombers, in July 2008 in many parts of South Asia. Those outrages caused well over a hundred deaths. Much before the recent attacks, the ISI's power and influence in politics had gained it the reputation of "a state within a state", suggesting that Pakistani governments, especially those formed by civilians, have little or no control over its activities. The ISI rejects such accusations, claiming that it is a professional organisation dedicated fully to gathering intelligence that would strengthen Pakistan's national survival and security. |
| Date: | 15 August 2008 |
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| Title: | 34 : India’s Employment Exchanges – Should they be revamped or scrapped altogether? |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | “There have been no attempts, so far, on collecting statistical material on employment and unemployment; the only published figures at present available are the registrations and placements of employment exchanges. These figures cannot, however, give an idea of the total volume of unemployment. Firstly, employment exchanges are confined to industrial towns and the figures of registrations and placements which they compile are restricted mostly to the industrial and commercial sector. Secondly, even in the industrial sector, there is neither compulsion for the unemployed, to register with the exchanges, nor is there any obligation on the part of the employer to recruit labour only through these exchanges. Even the information regarding unemployment among the industrial workers is, thus, inadequate. Thirdly, in the nature of the case, employment exchange statistics cannot indicate the amount of disguised unemployment which is otherwise believed to exist. This means that the extent to which qualified persons have to accept work which does not give them the income which persons with similar qualifications get elsewhere cannot be assessed from these data. There is also to some extent registration of persons who are already in employment and who desire to seek better jobs. This tendency is reported to exist in the more qualified section of registrants, but to the extent a region maintains these persons on the register of employment seekers, there is an overestimate of the number unemployed.” This was not written yesterday. It is a quote from India’s First Five Year Plan (1951-56) document.1 Nothing would substantially change if this were to be written now. |
| Date: | 10 July 2008 |
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| Title: | 33 : The First Budget by the New Coalition Government in Pakistan: Economic Situation and Policy Directions |
| Author/s: | Iftikhar A. Lodhi, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The troubled coalition government passed its first federal budget (Fiscal Year 2008-09)2 on 22 June 2008, after being in office for a hundred days, amid growing economic woes, political instability, and a deteriorating law and order situation. This paper analyses the budget in a broader macroeconomic framework and examines the policy initiatives that could put the economy back on track and provide the much needed relief to the common man. |
| Date: | 9 July 2008 |
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| Title: | 32 : India’s Nuclear Dilemma: To Drop the Deal or to Drop the Left |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The fate of the Indo-United States nuclear deal is on the brink. The 9th Meeting of India’s ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) and its Left supporters, held in New Delhi on 25 June 2008, drew the parting line but ducked the final verdict. This was done in the interest of buying some more time to work out the least painful way of separation. After unusual hectic political activity for at least a week preceding the meeting, in a cold statement, the Convener of the Meeting and Minister of External Affairs, Pranab Mukherjee, said, “The Committee completed its discussions on all aspects of the India-United States Nuclear Cooperation Agreement. The next meeting of the Committee, to be convened in due course, will finalise its findings”. |
| Date: | 30 June 2008 |
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| Title: | 31 : Higher Education in India – Ducking the Answers |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In 2005, the World Bank published a report on India and the knowledge economy.1 The thrust of the World Bank report was on education’s role as a fundamental enabler of the knowledge economy and the knowledge economy’s requirement of a new set of skills and competencies. In a simple sense, a country’s per capita national income is nothing but a measure of the average productivity of its citizens.2 With ageing populations in developed countries, and even in countries like Russia and China, there has been talk of India’s demographic dividend.3 That the demographic dividend argument works, is known. For East Asia, several studies suggest that between 25 to 40 percent of the East Asian miracle was due to the demographic dividend.4 Other than East Asia, it has worked in Japan in the 1950s, China in the 1980s and Ireland in the 1980s and the 1990s. |
| Date: | 16 May 2008 |
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| Title: | 30 : Of Agflation and Agriculture: Time to Fix the Structural Problems |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Agricultural commodity prices have reached nosebleed levels in recent months.1 The impact of the ongoing agflation across the world, especially on the low and fixed income groups, is so severe that the World Food Programme has described the phenomenon as a 'silent tsunami'.2 The current food shortage is also seen as the first truly global food crisis since World War II. The Asian Development Bank thinks that one billion people in Asia are seriously affected by surging global food prices.3 As there is a direct nexus between access to food and poverty, it is feared that soaring food prices will push more people under the poverty line and this could jeopardise the progress towards the millennium development goals. The World Bank believes that the current food crisis imperils 100 million people in poor countries.4 Nevertheless, the World Bank's explanation of extreme poverty (people who earns less than US$1 a day) underestimates the actual number of poor people in the world, as the sliding United States dollar and higher food and energy prices have made the definition somewhat obsolete. However, there are some winners of the current soft commodity boom too. Net food exporting countries have been enjoying improved terms of trade. |
| Date: | 5 May 2008 |
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| Title: | 29 : Development Trends in Selected Indian States – Issues of Governance and Management* |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow and Head of Research at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The southern and western states in India are regarded as high growth and high growth potential areas. This paper examines the management of government finances and expenditure in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu. |
| Date: | 24 April 2008 |
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| Title: | 28 : India: Towards a Knowledge Superpower? – A View from Outside |
| Author/s: | Gopinath Pillai |
| Abstract: | From the very dawn of history, whether it is for matters of the mind or material, India has always been a fertile land. The first references to astronomy are found in the Rig Veda which dates back to 2000 BC. Mathematics has its roots in the nearly 4,000 years old Vedic literature. Indians developed many important mathematical concepts, including the base-ten decimal system. India’s Panini is well-regarded as the founder of linguistics, and his Sanskrit grammar is still considered to be the most sophisticated of any language in the world. Even in manufacturing, India had an important position. According to the Yale historian, Paul Kennedy, India accounted for roughly 25 percent of global industrial output in the 1770s. India’s tangible and intangible assets had always attracted external worshippers and warriors alike. |
| Date: | 24 April 2008 |
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| Title: | 27 : The Pakistan Federal Cabinet: More of the Same or Something New? |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is a federal, parliamentary democracy which exercises its authority within the limits imposed by Islamic injunctions. The Pakistan Constitution vests executive powers for the federation as a whole in the prime minister and his cabinet, but through a number of ordinances and amendments enacted during the dictatorships of General Zia-ul-Haq and General Pervez Musharraf, the president has been given extraordinary powers to dismiss the prime minister and to dissolve parliament in case he is convinced that the government is not functioning properly. It will be interesting to see if the newly-elected government will seek to change this situation in favour of a strong prime minister and make the presidency a titular office. The Pakistan Parliament is bicameral. It consists of an upper house, the Senate, elected by the provincial assemblies and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), and a lower house, the National Assembly, elected directly by the citizens on the basis of universal adult franchise. |
| Date: | 11 April 2008 |
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| Title: | 26 : South Asia’s Inflation Challenges |
| Author/s: | Mohammad Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Most South Asian economies are now faced with exorbitant price hikes in fuel and non-fuel commodities. The current hikes have exposed the vulnerability of the low and middle income groups and the government exchequers, particularly in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan. The point-to-point inflation in these three countries is now double-digit. India is relatively less vulnerable to the current inflationary shock. Nevertheless, of late, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) acknowledged that price spiral in the economy is artificially “suppressed” as higher international oil prices have not been passed on to domestic consumers. The inflation scenario in Nepal is likely to follow the price level in India, largely because the former’s domestic currency is pegged to that of the latter. |
| Date: | 28 March 2008 |
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| Title: | 25 : THE LEGACY OF GANDHI: A 21ST CENTURY PERSPECTIVE |
| Author/s: | Professor Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow ; Mr Rajiv Sikri, Consultant ISAS ; Dr D. M Nachane ; Professor Partha Nath Mukherji |
| Abstract: | Mahatma Gandhi lived and worked out his social and political philosophy in the 20th century although his long stay in South Africa began already in the end of the 19th century. He faced discrimination and racism in that British colony and later developed novel methods of challenging the abuse of power and authority. Among those methods the most famous is Satyagraha, or non-violent civil disobedience and resistance. It not only influenced the Indian freedom struggle but also struggles for national liberation and social emancipation in many other parts of the world. |
| Date: | 28 March 2008 |
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