| Title: | 531 : The BJP’s Performance in the Hindi Belt |
| Author/s: | Diego Maiorano |
| Abstract: | The state election results in three states in North India should worry the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party. An analysis of the vote share across the three states reveals that the party suffered substantial losses across constituencies and that it lost a substantial number of safe seats. Since it is crucial for the party to win a high number of seats in the Hindi heartland at the forthcoming national elections, the results suggest that the fight for 2019 is more open than previously thought, despite the fact that Narendra Modi’s party remain the frontrunner. |
| Date: | 21 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 530 : Farm Distress in India – Causes and Possible Remedies |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | A farm loan waiver announced by several state governments is unlikely to solve the agrarian distress, caused by increasing costs and lower incomes. Crop specific and state-centred solutions need to be implemented. |
| Date: | 20 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 529 : The End of Sri Lanka’s Political Crisis: What Next? |
| Author/s: | Chulanee Attanayake and Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | On 13 December 2018, the seven-judge bench of the Supreme Court of Sri Lanka ruled that President Maithripala Sirisena’s decision to dissolve the parliament on 9 November 2018 is unconstitutional and that it cannot be dissolved until it completes four and a half years of its term. Following this landmark decision, Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned from his post and Ranil Wickremesinghe was reinstated and sworn in as the legitimate Prime Minister. The 50-days of political crisis has seemingly come to an end. This paper examines the aftermath of the political crisis. |
| Date: | 19 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 528 : Assembly Poll Result Boosts Congress and Stings BJP |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | The results of the Assembly elections in five Indian states - Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh (MP), Rajasthan, Telangana and Mizoram – were announced on 11 December 2018. The Congress will form the government in the three Hindi heartland states – Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan – while two regional parties, the Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and the Mizo National Front (MNF), won resounding victories in Telangana and Mizoram respectively. The results were a blow to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was in power in Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan, and a huge boost for the Congress. The BJP still remains the frontrunner to form the central government in 2019. The recent Assembly elections have, however, given the opposition significant momentum and made the BJP’s task that much more difficult in the 2019 general elections. |
| Date: | 17 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 527 : RiseUpSL: The Role of Social Media and Citizen Engagement in Sri Lanka’s Political Crisis |
| Author/s: | Anuradha Rao |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka is in the midst of an unprecedented constitutional and political crisis. The Supreme Court’s final verdict on the legality of the move to dissolve Parliament, expected on 13 December, and how parties respond to it, will have deep implications for the country’s democratic future. Meanwhile, an unexpected outcome of this crisis has been the equally unprecedented level of citizen engagement and civil society activism, fuelled to a large extent by social media. The ferocity and level of citizen engagement and critical discourse online and offline has taken political actors and observers by surprise, and has played a key role in shaping political discourse and collective actions. Although it is too soon to tell whether the citizen upsurge can effect real political change, its significant role in upholding democratic traditions at this critical juncture in Sri Lankan history must be acknowledged. |
| Date: | 13 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 526 : The 2018 Political Crisis and Muslim Politics in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Andreas Johansson |
| Abstract: | The Sri Lankan political crisis of 2018 kicked off with sitting President Maithripala Sirisena sacking Prime Minister Ranil Wickramasinghe and replacing him with former President Mahinda Rajapaksa. The political culture of the country was paralyzed by Sirisena’s drastic move. The biggest Muslim political party, the Sri Lankan Muslim Congress (SLMC) sided with Wickramasinghe. One of the reasons for the siding with Wickramasinghe was out of fear that Rajapaksa’s return would bring back the anti-Muslim sentiments in the country. The SLMC also fears that Rajapaksa might once again bring in a Sinhala nationalistic agenda into political discourse. But the SLMC’s choice has consequences. SLMC leaders, along with other Muslim political leaders, are now forced to navigate different Muslim categories that they themselves have introduced when choosing political sides. Muslims in Sri Lanka are defined in different ways, including, for example, through linguistic belonging or belonging to a religious sect. In the last decades, however, the dominant definition among the Muslim political elite has been belonging to the religious community of Islam. Yet the new political conflict may revive an old definition of Muslims in Sri Lanka, based on the Tamil language, which they share with other religious groups. Thus, after years of Muslim political leaders trying to distance themselves from other Tamil-speaking groups (Hindus and Christians), Muslims once again might turn to a bigger Tamil alliance in their bid to balance the blossoming Sinhalese nationalistic tendency in the country. |
| Date: | 13 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 525 : The Kartarpur Corridor: Symbolism, Politics and Impact on India-Pakistan Relations |
| Author/s: | Iqbal Singh Sevea |
| Abstract: | The construction of the Kartarpur Corridor has been widely hailed for the opening of a new chapter in India-Pakistan relations. Many hope that the goodwill generated by the corridor and the increased people-to-people contact it will generate could lead to better diplomatic relations between the two countries. Pakistani Prime Minister, Imran Khan, has even suggested that the corridor could mark the first step towards greater economic ties between the two countries |
| Date: | 11 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 524 : The United States’ Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy: Challenges for India and Japan |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit and Shutaro Sano |
| Abstract: | The Donald Trump administration in the United States (US) has expanded its articulation of a ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ (FOIP) region by announcing strategic investments and economic cooperation. India and Japan are fundamental to the realisation of the US vision of the region. For India and Japan, however, a deeper commitment to the US vision would depend on several factors. These include the prospects of the FOIP becoming a securityoriented strategy to counter China, as opposed to a regional connectivity programme; avoiding the legitimacy issues encountered by China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI); and acquiring an inclusive character. |
| Date: | 4 December 2018 |
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| Title: | 523 : Sri Lanka’s Crisis: Conflicts of Class and Power |
| Author/s: | S D Muni |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka is passing through an unprecedented constitutional and political crisis precipitated by President Maithripala Sirisena’s unexpected moves. At the core of this crisis are serious differences and conflicts between the President and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe, rooted in ideological, governance and personality related issues. There does not appear to be any smooth political resolution of this crisis. Fresh elections promise a better way out but do not appear to be politically and constitutionally feasible at the moment. The Sri Lankan people and the international community can only hope to see a more purposeful and stable Sri Lanka emerging from this crisis. |
| Date: | 26 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 522: State Polls in India: A Dress Rehearsal for the 2019 General Elections? |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen |
| Abstract: | Five Indian states have their elections between 12 November and 7 December 2018. The results for all the states will be declared on 11 December 2018. The poll-bound states are Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in north and central India, Telangana in south India and Mizoram in the northeast. The elections in the three states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are particularly important since, in the 2014 general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 61 out of the combined 65 parliamentary seats in these states. All three states will also largely see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. Hence, the results are likely to provide indicators for the results in the 2019 general elections. Opinion polls predict that the BJP will be voted out in Rajasthan while the contests in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to be close, with the BJP having a slight edge. The election in Telangana could also prove to be tight with the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi being challenged by an alliance of the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party. In Mizoram, the only northeastern state governed by the Congress, the regional Mizo National Front could be voted to power. |
| Date: | 20 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 521 : China’s Digital Silk Road: Implications for India |
| Author/s: | Deepakshi Rawat and Chan Jia Hao |
| Abstract: | In building China’s technological capacities, the Chinese government has made long-term strategic plans to enhance China’s manufacturing and service industries, such as the ‘Made in China 2025 Plan’ and the ‘Next Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan’. Building capacities in emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, space and communication satellites, and 5G technologies have taken off as a result of these broad strategic plans. As the rest of South Asia integrates deeper with China’s digital economy, it will remain an imperative for India to remain a key player in the global and regional digital economy, evident through its integration with its neighbours in South Asia. This paper first discusses three core technologies used to propel the Digital Silk Road – Artificial Intelligence, Communication Satellites and 5G technologies. Thereafter, it discusses the possible implications for India in light of China’s increasing prominence in technology. |
| Date: | 18 November 2018 |
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| Title: | 520 : The Rise of Barelvi Political Activism in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Iqbal Singh Sevea |
| Abstract: | Pakistan is witnessing the rise of a new form of Barelvi political activism. The Barelvi school of thought is a Sunni reform movement that arose in the Indian city of Bareilly in the late 19th century. Its followers revere Prophet Muhammad and Sufis, and ascribe to Sufi shrine-based religious practices. The increasingly assertive political role that the Barelvis are poised to play in the political realm is reflected in the emergence of the Tehreek-e-Labbaik Pakistan (TLP) as the fourth largest party in the recent elections. Post-elections, the TLP and other Barelvi organisations have heightened their efforts to influence the government through the use of social media, political pressure and mass protests. |
| Date: | 13 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 519 : BIMSTEC: Relevance and Challenges |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Rahul Choudhury and Silvia Tieri |
| Abstract: | As a collective of countries around the Bay of Bengal rim, the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) is unique as a cross-regional grouping between South and Southeast Asia. India is the largest economy of the group, followed by Thailand, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan. However, despite being in existence for two decades with a detailed work agenda for cooperation and political congeniality among members, BIMSTEC has hardly progressed. Hopes of the grouping picking up momentum have increased after its 4th Summit in Nepal on 30 and 31 August 2018 which resulted in important decisions like intra-member energy grid connectivity. Prospects of a BIMSTEC free trade agreement (FTA) also appear brighter. |
| Date: | 10 October 2018 |
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| Title: | 518 : Presidential Elections in the Maldives: A Victory for the Joint Opposition |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The defeat of the incumbent, Abdulla Yaameen, in the Maldivian presidential elections on 23 September 2018 marks an important step towards restoring democratic rule in the country. However, President-elect Ibrahim Mohamed Solih will not find the going smooth. He has to prepare himself to deal with a number of challenges, both from within his party and from the coalition partners. However, he is likely to have better luck in his relations with the country’s two large neighbours – India and China. |
| Date: | 27 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 517 : Digital Technologies Powering the Challenge of Financial Inclusion in India |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | India’s challenge of financial inclusion – giving every household in the country access to the formal financial sector – has been magically transformed by digital technologies which have exploded over the last five years. Millions of households not only have an active bank account but can hope to get cheap, efficient and user friendly access to a host of financial services – savings, remittance, credit and micro insurance. Even as the way India harnessed digital technologies to deepen financial inclusion is unique, there are many formidable challenges on the way forward. The ongoing Singapore-India cooperation in financial innovation can be a potential win-win opportunity for both countries to leverage the financial sector for real sector growth. |
| Date: | 27 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 516 : Power Shift in Bhutan and its Implication for India |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | On 15 September 2018, the party of the incumbent Prime Minister, Tshering Tobgay, thePeople’s Democratic Party, lost in the primary round of the elections in Bhutan. The finalround of elections between the top two polling parties, the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa and theDruk Phuensum Tshogpa, will be held on 18 October 2018 to determine the next governmentin the country. While Tobgay’s defeat came as a surprise to many outsiders, the Bhutanesewere not shocked by it, as anti-incumbency is generally a feature of the country’s elections.This paper examines Tobgay’s defeat and contends that this will not affect Bhutan’s relationswith India, which regards him as a friend. |
| Date: | 25 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 515 : Michael Pompeo in Pakistan: A Resetting of Relations |
| Author/s: | Nazneen Mohsina |
| Abstract: | The United States (US) Secretary of State, Michael Pompeo, made his first official trip to Pakistan on 5 September 2018 to meet with its new Prime Minister, Imran Khan, and his team with the aim of resetting the increasingly bitter relationship between the two long-time security partners over Pakistan’s alleged failure to curb militancy; its ever-closer alliance with China, an emerging friendship with Iran and Russia; and the US’ growing strategic and economic ties with India. While neither of the two nations can afford a complete rupture in their relations, Afghanistan remains central to any improvement. |
| Date: | 10 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 514 : The Performance of Religious Parties in Pakistan’s Elections |
| Author/s: | Riaz Hassan and Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Devotion to Islam has historically not translated into significant political support for religious parties in Pakistan. The 2018 elections seem to have followed a similar trend. This time, however, the religious vote bank was bolstered by newly-formed parties which have found support in urban centres across the country. |
| Date: | 10 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 513 : The Rapidly Evolving Situation in Afghanistan: Some Hope but Considerable Despair |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | There is a combination of hope and despair about the rapidly evolving situation in Afghanistan. There is hope because of a fairly fundamental change in the thinking of the various countries that have interest in Afghanistan. Washington and Kabul need to rethink their approach towards the conflict. Both capitals must find a way of bringing Pakistan to their side. Perhaps the most important change is in the thinking about this 17-year conflict is in Washington. This is on the part of the military leaders in the United States whose thinking does not always match that of Donald Trump, the country’s president. This paper examines where the various players in the game stand |
| Date: | 10 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 512 : Small States, Big States, Weak States, Strong States: Bangladesh’s Handling of India |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Although one of the world’s largest countries in terms of population, Bangladesh is much smaller in size and power in comparison to its neighbour, India. It is also ‘India-locked’, hemmed in geographically on three sides by its more powerful neighbour. It also owes its nascence as an independent sovereign state actor to India. Hence, it needs to be very nimble to be able to retain for itself sufficient space for manoeuvrability in policy formulation which is necessary to obtain its aspirations and objectives in foreign policy. This paper does not seek to provide any prescription for action. Rather, it tries to extrapolate a paradigm of behaviour in such a situation which could also be relevant to other smaller states in comparable milieu. |
| Date: | 5 September 2018 |
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| Title: | 511 : India and the RCEP: High Costs of Disengagement |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The 16-country Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) negotiations are heading for a conclusion. However, doubts persist over India’s readiness to conclude the deal. This paper looks at India’s objections, particularly fears over Chinese imports, and argues these fears overlook its dependence on imports for domestic inefficiencies. It criticises paranoid Indian opinions on free trade agreements and the lack of attention on their economic benefits, primarily through more exports and foreign direct investments, larger share in global markets and higher gross domestic product growth. Arguing that the Indian world view on trade remains stuck in non-alignment, the paper cautions about the high economic and strategic costs that India might have to pay if it disengages from the RCEP. |
| Date: | 27 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 510 : India-ASEAN Air Connectivity: Prospects for Growing Trade and Tourism |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | Connectivity infrastructure has been crucial to enhancing trade and economic relations across countries in the world. Over the two decades, economic relations between India and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-member states have grown considerably due, in large part, to improved land and sea connectivity. In recent times, both Indian and ASEAN leaders have been stressing on the need to improve aviation connectivity among their countries. This paper analyses passenger and freight traffic between India and ASEAN through ASEAN airlines using data from the Directorate of Civil Aviation in India. The observations and other evidence are used to reflect on the current stress on building air connectivity between India and the ASEAN-member countries, the impending implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and in facilitating tourism, trade and commerce through aviation. |
| Date: | 27 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 509 : Donald Trump’s Unilateral Tariff Imposition: Damage to the World Trading Order |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Much of the discussion on the several steps taken by the President of the United States (US), Donald Trump, in the area of international commerce has focused on the unilateral moves on tariffs imposed by the US as an instrument of diplomacy. The American leader is determined to go alone, convinced that the deals made bilaterally are advantageous for a country such as his that outmatches any other in terms of its economic and military strength. This way of proceeding is weakening the international economic, financial and trade order the US was deeply involved in creating. This paper suggests that all the world nations, including South Asia, should draw up a plan of action to save the world order from the assault by the US. |
| Date: | 27 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 508 : Building a Digital Bridge: New Frontiers in India-Singapore Connectivity |
| Author/s: | R Shashank Reddy |
| Abstract: | Digital connectivity is becoming an increasingly important tool of diplomacy, driven mainly by significant Chinese investments, especially in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region. In the 21st century, digital connectivity will have as significant a geo-political impact as physical connectivity. Increased Chinese presence in the digital markets of ASEAN, therefore, has led to unease amongst the countries of this region. Given India’s rapidly expanding and maturing digital sector, coupled with the presence of indigenously developed digital products that could have relevance in the countries of ASEAN, India could act as a direct competitor to China in this region. Singapore, which is home to a number of India-facing digital companies, and is at the heart of the ASEAN economy, could act as a conduit for greater India-ASEAN digital cooperation. To ensure this, however, India must act on two fronts. Externally, India should be more ambitious and driven in exporting its technology and digital products to the rest of the world, and should improve its overseas project delivery capacities. Internally, India should ensure that its digital markets remain free and open, with clear, well-thought out policies, and should not fall into the temptation of having data localisation requirements. |
| Date: | 15 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 507 : Japan in Northeast India: Raising the Stakes |
| Author/s: | Rupakjyoti Borah |
| Abstract: | One of the important facets of Japan’s growing ties with India is its involvement in India’s Northeastern region. Apart from the connectivity factor, Northeast India is key for both Japan’s ‘Free and Open Indo-Pacific’ strategy and India’s ‘Act-East’ policy. Given Northeast India’s physical proximity to Southeast Asia (a region where Japan has a huge economic stake), its importance in India’s bilateral ties with Japan is only set to grow in the immediate future. |
| Date: | 14 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 506 : Mauritius-India Relationship: A Fine Balancing Act |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | Mauritius has a deep and special relationship with India, resting upon historical migrations, religious affinity and close defence relations. At more than 60 per cent of the population, Indo-Mauritians are the politically dominant ethnic group. On 28 July 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping stopped in Mauritius, the second visit by a Chinese president to the Indian Ocean island nation in less than 10 years. India has been, and continues to be, the country’s de facto security guarantor. However, preserving its influence will require a fine balancing act. |
| Date: | 13 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 505 : Imran Khan’s New Pakistan: Meeting the Challenges of Governance |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | The author, using his many years of experience working in the countries around the globe, suggests that the new administration in Islamabad should not panic into taking economic actions not warranted by the situation the country faces. The doom and gloom talk in the press, both inside and outside the country, could result in the government taking actions that would do long-term damage to the economy. He argues against rushing into the arms of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as that would result in imposing conditions that would squeeze growth out of the economy. The gross domestic product is growing at the healthy rate of 5.8 per cent this financial year and net foreign reserves of US$9 billion (S$12.3 billion) can finance two months of imports. This is below the three-month criterion of good health used by the IMF but not by such a large amount to induce panic. Instead of moving in haste, the country should make an intelligent use of the resources flowing in from China as a part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor investment programme. Rather than panicking into taking hasty actions, the new rulers should prepare for a better future. |
| Date: | 10 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 504 : An Analysis of the Social Composition of the Indian Parliament |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen and Taisha Grace Antony |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the changing social composition of India’s Lok Sabha (Lower House of Parliament) beginning from its first term in 1952 until the current or 16th Lok Sabha, which began its term in 2014. The paper looks at five distinct social characteristics of the members of parliament – age, occupation, education, caste and gender – and links transformations over time in these variables to the performance of the parliament and the larger narrative of its dysfunctionality. |
| Date: | 7 August 2018 |
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| Title: | 503 : The Presidential Elections in the Maldives: The Incumbent versus a United Opposition |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | In the presidential elections in Maldives in September 2018, there is a direct contest between the incumbent, Abdulla Yameen, and Ibrahim Mohamed Solih from the Maldivian Democratic Party. Since Yameen became the President of Maldives in 2013, the country has witnessed a series of clampdowns on political dissidents. Even some of his own party’s lawmakers, who have dared to take a different position, have not been spared by Yameen’s government. In the forthcoming elections, the significant issues are radical Islam versus a liberal order, restitution of democratic and political rights versus status quo, foreign businesses and investments in Maldives, and interference of foreign powers in the internal affairs of the country. |
| Date: | 31 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 502 : Indian Agriculture: Technological Innovations and New Investment Opportunities |
| Author/s: | Ashok Gulati |
| Abstract: | With a population of 1.32 billion, where an average household spends 45 per cent of its expenditure on food (NSSO, 2011) and where the gross domestic product is growing between seven to eight percent per annum, India offers a big investment opportunity in its food-feedfibre value chains. Innovations all along the agri-value chains – from seeds of crops to sexing technologies in the dairy sector, from the ‘ uberisation of farm machinery’ to microirrigation through mobile solar pumps, and from solar-powered cold storages to processing, packaging, and retailing through e-commerce – are some of the emerging investment opportunities that can be game changers in the Indian agricultural sector. |
| Date: | 20 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 501 : Pakistan and the Financial Action Task Force |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Established in 1989, the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) has developed detailed criteria to assess the performance of all countries and jurisdictions in managing their financial dealings with the world outside their borders. Based on its criteria, the FATF made public ‘grey’ or ‘black’ lists, identifying those that did not meet its criteria. Pakistan, for a variety of reasons, was one of the targeted countries. In June 2018, it avoided being put on the ‘black’ list by agreeing to a 26-point action plan formulated by the government in place for an interim period to manage the general elections scheduled for 25 July 2018. This paper will elaborate how political considerations have seeped into the FATF’s decision-making process and its mode of operation. It then goes on to discuss the impact this decision will have on Pakistan’s economic future. |
| Date: | 18 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 500 : Nepali Prime Minister’s Visit to China: Pushing Ahead with the 2016 Agreements |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | Nepali Prime Minister K P Oli travelled to China in June 2018 to primarily revisit and reemphasise the implementation of the agreements concluded by Nepal and China during his first visit to China as Nepal’s prime minister in 2016. However, recent issues of political uncertainties in Nepal have resulted in the Chinese adopting a cautious approach towards the South Asian country. As such, Oli’s visit did not yield any significant breakthrough between the two countries. |
| Date: | 13 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 499 : South Asia and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals: Challenges of Implementation |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | With the seeming withdrawal of the United States and much of the West from the global scene, the role of Asia is unquestionably on the rise. Within Asia, South Asia constitutes an important ‘sub-system’, both in terms of policy and analysis. Its own contribution in this regard will largely depend on how it is able to surmount its current developmental challenges and infrastructural gaps. This would depend on the capacity of the region to implement the goals and targets contained in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. This paper attempts to examine the constraints and possibilities in this regard |
| Date: | 10 July 2018 |
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| Title: | 498 : Moving Forward: Bilateral Exchanges on E-governance between Singapore and India |
| Author/s: | Chan Jia Hao |
| Abstract: | Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Singapore from 31 May to 2 June 2018 saw India and Singapore signing various business and skills-related memoranda of understanding (MoUs). What was less focused on, but increasingly relevant, appears to be India’s union-level endorsement of a MoU between India and Singapore on cooperation in the field of personnel management and public administration. As both countries increasingly focus on the development of a digital-driven society and economy through the centralisation, exchange and analysis of data, this paper discusses the two governments’ strength in digital public service delivery and management for future exchange gains under Singapore-India bilateral relations. |
| Date: | 25 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 497 : Sheikh Hasina’s Visit to West Bengal: Much Ado about Nothing |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | During her two-day visit to the Indian State of West Bengal in late May 2018, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Hasina Wajed, discussed several issues with India’s Prime Minister, Narendra Modi and the Chief Minister of West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee. However, little headway was made on the Rohingya issue. Also, the contentious issue of the sharing of Teesta river waters between India and Bangladesh remained unresolved. Similarly, the consequences of the publication of the final list of the updated National Register of Citizenship did not find its way onto the agenda during the visit. |
| Date: | 25 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 496 : Central Asia and ASEAN: Perspectives for Interaction in Implementing the Belt and Road Initiative |
| Author/s: | Usen Suleimen |
| Abstract: | One of the trends in modern international relations is the rapid shift from the political strata to more economic dimensions. This is evident in the actions of world powers in their race for economic development through the improvement of integration processes, creation of regional trade and economic platforms as well as trade routes. In this regard, the shift by developing countries towards realising the goals of the Fourth Industrial Revolution can be characterised as a process dictated by the order of the day. Currently, more than 90 per cent of the freight traffic between Asia and Europe is via maritime routes. However, in the medium term, a certain share of this impressive volume of goods will be transported via land routes. This will increase the transit and transport potential of Central Asia, particularly Kazakhstan, which could play a significant role in this new scenario. Moreover, given the modern geopolitical realities, Central Asia could become an important transit corridor between Europe and China. |
| Date: | 19 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 495 : India and Indonesia: Constructing a Maritime Partnership |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | The comprehensive strategic partnership between India and Indonesia, announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Joko Widodo during the former’s visit to Jakarta at the end of May 2018, is to be built around annual summit meetings between the leaders of the two nations, sustained high-level bureaucratic exchanges, substantive defence cooperation, including on arms production, stronger counter-terror collaboration, deeper economic integration and more expansive people-to-people relations. What stands out in this sweeping agenda is the maritime dimension. The joint maritime vision for the Indo-Pacific unveiled by the two leaders rests on the long-delayed recognition that the two nations share a vast oceanic neighbourhood. This has acquired an urgency thanks to the power shift in the waters of Asia marked by the rise of China and its deteriorating ties with the United States, and the sharpening of Beijing’s territorial disputes with its neighbours. |
| Date: | 14 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 494 : The NSE-SGX Impasse and the Path Ahead |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | India’s National Stock Exchange’s (NSE) concerns over migration of trading in Nifty 50 futures to Singapore resulted in a series of actions by the NSE and the Singapore Exchange (SGX), culminating in suspension of trading rights for the Nifty 50 futures on the SGX, a court action and an eventual referral to arbitration. The arbitration award is to be announced on 16 June 2018. The SGX and the NSE have a mutually beneficial relationship that has lasted decades. There is too much at stake to allow the current disagreement to hamper a partnership that holds considerable promise for the future. |
| Date: | 7 June 2018 |
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| Title: | 493 : ASEAN-India Cooperation in Information and Communications Technology |
| Author/s: | Chan Jia Hao |
| Abstract: | India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Singapore from 31 May to 2 June 2018 to participate in the annual Shangri-La Dialogue. While international relations and security remain important foreign policy imperatives for India, Modi is also keen to enhance economic cooperation with Singapore and the Southeast Asian region. One sector of particular interest to the Indian prime minister is digital connectivity. The ‘Digital India’ programme has been successfully incorporated in several of India’s economic initiatives. Digital connectivity has also become a serious agenda in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)-India relations in recent times. This paper discusses the latest digital developments and collaborations between India and ASEAN, with particular references to the Smart Cities. It concludes by outlining the limitations that both sides need to address in this sector. |
| Date: | 24 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 492 : Nepal, India and China: A Trilateral Equation |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | Nepal’s new Prime Minister K P Oli made his first foreign visit to India from 6 to 8 April 2018 after his party, the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) [CPM(UML)], won a watershed national election in December 2017. This was closely followed by the visit of Nepal’s Foreign Minister Pradip Gyawali to China from 16 to 21 April 2018 and India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Nepal from 11 to 12 May 2018. These visits are notable as they come amidst a growing consensus among analysts that Nepal would tilt towards China as a strategic partner after the ‘pro-Chinese’ CPM-UML’s victory, and, consequently, lead to a chill in Indo-Nepalese ties. This paper seeks to contextualise the visits against the larger picture of factors which underpin the India-China-Nepal triangular relationship. |
| Date: | 22 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 491 : America’s Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal: Implications for India |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schoettli |
| Abstract: | On 8 May 2018, United States (US) President Donald Trump announced his country’s withdrawal from the multinational nuclear agreement with Iran, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Lambasting the agreement for being “defective at its core”,1 Trump set in motion procedures to re-instate strict sanctions on Tehran. The remaining signatories of the agreement are busy trying to salvage the deal. America’s unilateral decision has implications for India’s geo-political interests in Iran and beyond. |
| Date: | 21 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 490 : India’s Skills Challenge: First Principles, Priorities and Responses |
| Author/s: | K P Krishnan |
| Abstract: | This paper highlights some of the key issues that the Indian Ministry of Skills Development and Entrepreneurship is grappling with in the country, and outlines how the ministry is trying to address them. Though there are no technical definitions, the phrase, Vocational Education and Training, is used to describe the long duration (minimum one year) training programmes while the phrase, skills development, is used to describe the short duration (not exceeding six months) training programmes. This is not drawn from the literature but rather reflects a practice in Indian official discussions. |
| Date: | 2 May 2018 |
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| Title: | 489 : The 2017 Annual Status of Education Report 1: India’s Learning Crisis |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | The 2017 Annual Status of Education Report released in January 2018 revealed that while India has achieved near universal enrollment, the quality of learning in schools has not only been poor, but has also deteriorated over the years. After eight years of schooling, more than a quarter of the children are unable to read a Standard 2 text, and nearly three out of five are not able to solve a simple three-digit by one-digit division sum. The learning deficiencies have widened over the past 10 years, raising serious questions about the value imparted by Indian primary and secondary schools, and the cognitive skills, capabilities and prospects of its youth as they enter an increasingly uncertain and demanding workforce. This paper attempts to delineate the reasons behind the poor performance and its consequences |
| Date: | 27 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 488 : Xi Jinping-Narendra Modi Meeting in Wuhan: Understanding the Chinese and Indian Motivations |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | The scheduled informal meeting between India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on 27 and 28 April 2018 in Wuhan, China, is widely perceived as an attempt to reset the relationship between the two countries. This paper argues that the Chinese and Indian motivations for the meeting are different. As such, the meeting is likely to produce much positive hype, but it may not succeed in achieving any far-reaching outcomes for both countries. |
| Date: | 26 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 487 : Emerging Strains in China-Pakistan Friendship |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | The China-Pakistan friendship has been hailed by both countries as an all-weather friendship. However, the clashes between the Chinese and Pakistanis in Pakistan in early April 2018 point to the emergence of possible cracks in this friendship. This paper looks at the incidents and concludes that they have the potential to destabilise the relationship between the two countries. |
| Date: | 11 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 486 : Afghanistan: Dilemmas for Peace and Security |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The perception that the Donald Trump Administration in Washington may be inexorably sliding into a state of dysfunctionality, might have prompted Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani to hold out an olive branch to his Taliban opponents and make a peace offer to them. How the Taliban will react is uncertain. They are disunited but, at the same time, gaining ground in battle. The peace process will require greater calibration than what exists at this time between Kabul and Islamabad. So, as of now, peace is not in sight and fighting is likely to continue. However, with the United States’ interests and even capability on the wane, greater responsibility to end the conflict devolves on the regional leadership if it is to avoid wider conflagrations, which will be to the benefit of none. |
| Date: | 4 April 2018 |
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| Title: | 485 : The Mahadayi River Water Disputes between Karnataka and Goa |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The Mahadayi river water disputes between Karnataka and Goa are likely to have implications for the assembly elections in Karnataka scheduled for April-May 2018. Both the incumbent and the opposition parties are hoping to make electoral gains from the disputes. Some of the candidates are allegedly extending support to the groups calling for a shutdown in Karnataka over the Mahadayi river issues. Constitutionally, a tribunal, which was set up in August 2013 to look into the Mahadayi river water disputes, is expected to deliver its verdict by August 2018. |
| Date: | 19 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 484 : A Decade of India-Vietnam Strategic Partnership: Progress and Prospects |
| Author/s: | Ankush Ajay Wagle |
| Abstract: | Vietnam’s President Tran Dai Quang visited India for three days at the beginning of March 2018. The visit comes at an opportune moment. Indo-Vietnamese ties witnessed the completion of 10 years of the ‘strategic partnership’ in 2017 and Vietnam is in the final year of its role as country coordinator for India in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. This paper reflects on the progress achieved under the partnership in the last decade as well as highlights potential areas of cooperation going forward. |
| Date: | 13 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 483 : A New Chief Minister In Balochistan: Changing Political Tide? |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | The Balochistan Provincial Assembly moved to elect, with a vote of 41 out of 65, Mr Abdul Quddus Bizenjo, from a minority party as the new Chief Minister of the province. This was made possible through an open revolt by Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) lawmakers in the provincial assembly and colluding with opposition parties, thus compelling the incumbent Chief Minister Sanaullah Khan Zehri to resign for fear of facing a floor test in the assembly. This paper provides an in-depth understanding into the politics of Balochistan and examines the political developments in Balochistan. Given that the PML-N is the ruling party in Islamabad, allowing its legislators in Balochistan the right to dissent is a positive development towards the restoration of democracy and functional federalism in Pakistan. |
| Date: | 5 March 2018 |
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| Title: | 482 : Sri Lanka’s Local Polls: Gains For Mahindra Rajapaksa’s New Party |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | The results of the local government elections in Sri Lanka have brought former president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, back to the political arena. The results were seen as a setback for the country’s first post-war government of President Maithripala Sirisena and Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe whose parties contested the elections independently. The elections were the first since the coalition government was formed in 2015. Public support for the alliance has declined due to its lacklustre performance on its reform agenda in the last three years. This paper explores the reasons for Rajapaksa’s victory and analyse the implications of the government’s defeat in the local polls on the country’s future. |
| Date: | 21 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 481 : Will India Walk The Talk? Parsing Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Davos Speech |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao, Taisha Grace Antony and Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi delivered the keynote address at the 48th annual World Economic Forum in Davos on 23 January 2018. He pitched the country as an investment destination to foreign companies and investors, called for a liberal and multipolar world order while acknowledging the challenges facing the world today. Reviving investment is critical for India to raise the growth rate and address the country’s growing challenge of unemployment. Whether Modi’s Davos speech will result in higher investment will depend on whether and how credibly India will walk the talk. How India will perform on the economic and political fronts in the years ahead will also determine to what extent India can provide leadership for the liberal international order threatened by United States President Donald Trump’s ‘deglobalisation’ policy stance. |
| Date: | 9 February 2018 |
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| Title: | 480 : The Leftist Alliance Victory In Nepal: Implications For Domestic And Foreign Policies |
| Author/s: | Roshni Kapur |
| Abstract: | The provincial and parliamentary elections in Nepal in December 2017 witnessed the leftist alliance of the Communist Party of Nepal-Unified Marxist-Leninist and the Communist Party of Nepal sweeping into power. The results were a disappointment for the ruling Nepali Congress which won a mere 23 seats and was relegated to third position. There is a general belief that the elections will usher long-term stability, reconstruction and economic development into the country. This paper explores the reasons for the coalition’s landslide victory and the ramifications on Nepal’s foreign policy discourse with China and India. |
| Date: | 12 January 2018 |
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