| Title: | 375 : Pakistan’s Involvement in the ‘Heart of Asia’ Conference |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | The sixth Heart of Asia-Istanbul-Process Ministerial conference was held on 4 December 2016 in Amritsar (India). Pakistan chose to attend the conference despite India’s boycott of the summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) which was scheduled to be hosted by Islamabad. This paper is an analysis of Pakistan’s role in the ‘Heart of Asia’ Conference. |
| Date: | 23 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 374 : Nation Building with Non-Nationals: The United Arab Emirates’s Pathway to Modernity |
| Author/s: | Riaz Hassan |
| Abstract: | The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has its origin in the British colonial expansion. For about two centuries the territories of the UAE were administered by the British colonial rulers of India. The colonial authorities protected the land and residency rights of natives while excluding immigrants for these rights. Emirati citizenship is now confined only to those whose ancestors lived in the seven Emirates before 1925. In 2015 its population was over nine million of which 89 per cent were immigrants mainly from South Asian countries with no residency rights. Since 1971 GDP of the UAE has increased by 231 times making it one of the richest counties in the world. This massive increase in the country's wealth is mainly due to the economic activities of its millions of migrant workers but its main beneficiaries are Emiratis. The paper offers an overview and analysis of these developments. |
| Date: | 22 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 373 : Trump, the Future of American Democracy, and the Developing World |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | There is a growing worry among academics and policy analysts in the United States that the rise of the movement that bestowed the presidency on Donald Trump may pose an existential threat to the country's political structure. If the system does get weakened, it will have worldwide consequences, including in South Asia. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States was held as an example of a political system, the basic elements of which could be adopted by the politically underdeveloped parts of the world. That may not be the case any longer. |
| Date: | 20 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 372 : The Economic Consequences of Mr Trump for South Asia |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | America matters to the world. To say that American growth and stability are international public goods, in the sense that they affect everyone around the world, is clich?®d, but true nevertheless. Not just America's external policies, but even its domestic economic policies have a spill-over impact on countries beyond its borders. Virtually every country therefore has a stake in America's economic philosophy and policy; the stakes are even higher for emerging market economies such as those in South Asia whose prospects for growth and welfare are premised on the existence of a benign global economic order. Is it possible that this thought might be on the United States Presidentelect Mr Donald Trump's mind? |
| Date: | 14 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 371 : China and South Asia: Towards an Uncharted Order |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The “China Dream” that President Xi Jinping pursues, and India’s aspiration of becoming “a leading power”, tend to define the nuanced competition between these two neighbours in Maritime South Asia. In interacting with India’s proximate neighbours in this maritime space, Beijing is exploring globalisation with Chinese characteristics, while India is still exploring catch-up with China. |
| Date: | 14 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 370 : Demonetisation of Indian Currency – An Assessment |
| Author/s: | Mr Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The Government of India took the bold and unprecedented move to withdraw the legal tender status of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes on 8 November 2016. This move, designed to check the accumulated stock of black money in the economy, has undeniably created a great deal of hardship to the general public. While long queues form at bank branches and ATMs, the public has generally accepted the hardship in the fulfilment of the larger objective stated by the government. However, the nimble footedness of the government and the Reserve Bank are at test to end the limits placed on the withdrawal of cash. The long term effects of the decision are still to be assessed, but it is feared that in the short term the economy will certainly take a hit. An attempt is made in this study to see how the move has unfolded and assess its consequences for the economy. |
| Date: | 6 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 369 : Governance, Growth and Social Inclusion in Tripura: Debunking the Insurgency Paradigm |
| Author/s: | Harihar Bhattacharyya |
| Abstract: | Tripura, located in India' North East, remains the best governed State in the region, and one of the best in India since the 1980s. A small hilly State with a population of 3.7 million and with major ethnic cleavages, Tripura has scored remarkable records in terms of governance, growth and social inclusion. Militancy in the State has nearly dissipated. This paper seeks to answer the question: what accounts for better governance, growth and social inclusion in difficult Tripura in the age of India's reforms, and what policy lessons it holds for others regions, and beyond? The paper argues that debunking the prevalent insurgency paradigm in understanding the region is long overdue. |
| Date: | 6 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 368 : Pakistan-Turkey Relations: Sustaining the Momentum |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra |
| Abstract: | Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan paid a state visit to Pakistan from 16 to 17 November 2016. This paper analyses the outcome of the visit and focuses on the growing relations between Pakistan and Turkey. |
| Date: | 5 December 2016 |
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| Title: | 367 : What’s Diaspora Got to do with it? Sri Lanka’s Reconciliation Process |
| Author/s: | Amjad Mohamed-Saleem |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka’s diaspora-to-population ratio is known to be one of the highest in the South Asian region. Sri Lanka is now exploring ways to engage its overseas community for future growth and reconciliation. Engaging these stakeholders in development (and ultimately reconciliation) necessarily relies upon sound knowledge of who they are. However, knowledge about them is not sufficient to foster collaboration. Trust‐building is the foundation of effective engagement strategies, especially in the context of Sri Lanka. |
| Date: | 21 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 366 : Upcoming Elections in Manipur: A review of the Political and Cultural Relationship between the State and the Center |
| Author/s: | Rodney Sebastian |
| Abstract: | The Northeast Indian state of Manipur will be undergoing Legislative Assembly Elections by March 2017. Media reports and recent defections of Congress MLAs to the BJP indicate that there is a high probability that the BJP would unseat the 15-year Congress rule in Manipur. The reasons for BJP's optimism and the particular strategies it has adopted has to be examined in light of how political and cultural relationship between the state and the Center has developed since Manipur became a part of the Indian union. In this paper, I will discuss how the Central Government's policies towards Manipur over the past six decades has exacerbated ethnic conflict and insurgency problems in the state. Moreover, a lack of cultural and psychological integration with the rest of India has left Manipuris experiencing a sense of alienation from the Center. Despite this, the experiences of the Manipuri diaspora, recent initiatives in investments in cultural and educational institutions, and ongoing projects to improve transport and communication linkages with India and Southeast Asia, has fostered optimism which has translated into calls for political change. The state's traditional support for the party in power and the BJP's allegations of corruption in the incumbent Congress party promises a closely contested election. |
| Date: | 21 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 365 : Singapore Sri Lanka economic relations – a look at the trends and barriers to trade |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | Singapore and Sri Lanka have recently launched negotiations towards finalising a bilateral free trade agreement. Offering a profile of the trends in bilateral trade and tariffs this insight reflects on possible gains which either country could expect through a liberalised trade and market access regime. |
| Date: | 16 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 364 : Follow-Up Reforms needed for a Demonetisation Dividend |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | A concerted attempt has been made by the Government of India to unearth unaccounted cash. Reports of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) elicited the fact that cash in circulation was growing at an unprecedented rate when other indicators in the economy did not reveal any genuine reasons for such large amounts to be circulating. The manufacturing sector did not indicate any growth nor did construction, hence a year on year growth of about 15 % in the last two years was causing consternation. Given the serious situation which appeared to be emerging, as being brought out by many studies, the government had to resort to the surprise element in the ferreting out process. This will cause hardship for some time but will certainly address the 'stock' of accumulated black money. There is an urgent need to address the regeneration of black money which constitutes the flow element. |
| Date: | 14 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 363 : Demonetisation – Is this time different? |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | The bold and surprise decision of the Indian Government last week to delegalize the two highest denomination currency notes - 1000 rupees (about USD 15) and 500 rupees (USD 7.5) - which account for 85 percent of the value of cash circulating in the economy will impose short-term costs but has the potential to deliver enduring gains, provided the measure is followed to its logical closure. |
| Date: | 14 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 362 : Terror in Balochistan: New Lessons to Learn |
| Author/s: | Anish Mishra, former Intern at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Balochistan in Pakistan has once again been the hit by a terrorist attack. On 24 October 2016, 3 gunmen struck at the Quetta Police Training College causing at least 61 deaths and leaving 117 others injured. Following the bomb blast at the Quetta Civil Hospital on 8 August 2016, it appeared that terrorists were beginning to shift focus from hard to soft targets and also moving towards specific targeted killings1.The latest attack seems to indicate a continuation of such a trend, although the rationale behind the choice of targets still remains unknown. This paper seeks to analyse the recent attack and its implications for Pakistan. |
| Date: | 3 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 361 : Economic Aspects of India’s North-East: Opportunities for Trade through Greater Connectivity |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews the economic profile of India's North-East region and the initiatives to connect it better with the neighbourhood, and comments on its possible trade potential with the Asian region given the current world-trade scenario. |
| Date: | 2 November 2016 |
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| Title: | 360 : China-India Talks: Some Signals to Pakistan |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | For China, its on-going multi-dimensional dialogue with India is not a pastime but a serious business of foreign policy, thereby necessitating close Chinese attention towards India's concerns which include its complaints against Pakistan. This became evident during the meeting between India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping in Goa on 15 October 2016, as can be gleaned from the official interpretations by the two sides. A litmus test of China's attitude, not just attention, towards India in this regard is yet to come. |
| Date: | 25 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 359 : BRICS – Making Haste (Too) Slowly? |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | The leaders of the BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – issued a long communique at the conclusion of their eighth summit in Goa, India, on 16 October 2016. The communique disappoints because despite its forbidding length, or possibly because of that, it is long on platitudes and affirmations and short on specifics and concrete decisions. One cannot but get the impression that the BRICS leaders had perforce to stay with generalities because they would not find common ground were they to drill down to translating aspirations to action plans. |
| Date: | 25 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 358 : India’s Neighbourhood Policy, and its Perception of China: The Case of Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | India’s perception of Chinese engagement in its neighbourhood is a major factor driving its ‘Neighbourhood Policy'. One of the best examples of how Indian sensitivities are affected by China’s engagement in its neighbourhood, is the case of Sri Lanka. The Indian reaction and its efforts to reduce Chinese influence in Sri Lanka, have resulted in negative outcomes for both India and Sri Lanka. This paper argues for a new approach in India’s Neighbourhood Policy that better reflects the realities on the ground. |
| Date: | 25 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 357 : Currency-Printing: South Asia-South Korea’s Trustworthy Relations in the 1980s |
| Author/s: | Sojin Shin |
| Abstract: | South Korea’s currency-printing technology was well-received in many Asian countries in the 1980s when they encountered currency shortage crisis and outsourced currency printing. In South Asia in particular, India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Pakistan were the countries where ‘made-in-Korea’ banknotes and coins were circulated. Further, South Korea’s currency-printing technology was transferred to some countries like Bhutan for it to produce its currency notes indigenously. Such export of currency notes whose printing was outsourced to South Korea and the country’s technology transfer to South Asian state-customers is significant, in the sense that (1) possessing its own and producing the unique national currencies of other countries enhance South Korea’s state legitimacy and power, and (2) South Korea-South Asia relations have been built based on such mutual trust and confidence. |
| Date: | 20 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 356 : Balancing or Containing China? Interpreting Chinese Views on India-US LEMOA |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | The signing of India- United States Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) symbolizes the geopolitical changes in the Asia-Pacific region. LEMOA is widely perceived by the Chinese media and scholars as an agreement directed at China. These Chinese interpretations of this agreement might form the basis of China's future course of action towards the increasing closeness of India and the US. |
| Date: | 20 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 355 : Xi Jinping in Dhaka: Implications for South Asian Politics |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Chinese President Xi Jinping's visit to Bangladesh (14-15 October 2016) is being assessed as a 'great success'. But the greatest success could be the potential of persuading India and China that, should these two major Asian protagonists collaborate for bringing progress and prosperity to the region of South Asia, this could lead to the fruition of the expression'win- win cooperation' which the leaders of the two countries are so prone to use but with so little to show for it in terms of achievement to-date. |
| Date: | 18 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 354 : Why the Long-Term Case for India’s Economic Acceleration is better than Many Think |
| Author/s: | Manu Bhaskaran |
| Abstract: | The Indian economy's upward trajectory moderated in the second quarter of 2016 (2Q16), as the economy grew by 7.1% year-on-year (y/y) in 2Q16, down from 7.9% growth in 1Q16. With cyclical indicators firming, growth is likely to remain above 7% in 2016. With recent developments from the top-down showing promise for improved governance, we now assess India's long-term potential based on its inherent advantages and bottom-up strengths that have yet to be fully leveraged. |
| Date: | 13 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 353 : The New Child Labour Law in India: Some Limits to Legal Solutions to a Structural Problem |
| Author/s: | Taisha Grace Antony |
| Abstract: | The Child Labour (Prohibition & Regulation) Amendment Bill of 2012 was passed in Lok Sabha on 26 July 2016 amidst deep controversies surrounding the Bill. The new Child Labour (Prohibition and Regulation) Amendment Act of 2016 aims at amending the existing Child Labour Act of 1986, which prohibits the employment of children below the age of 14 years in certain types of occupations and regulates the working conditions in several others. It seeks to forbid employment of children below 14 years in all occupations except where they help their families in their free time, as well as to outlaw the employment of those between the age group of 15 to 18 years in certain hazardous occupations. On one hand, the amended Act balances the need for basic income with the need for an extra income, and on the other, it underestimates the adverse consequences of child labour for poverty alleviation in India. |
| Date: | 13 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 352 : Charting a New Course: Modi’s Pakistan Policy |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | Five elements define Prime Minister Narendra Modi's effort to end the prolonged strategic stalemate in India's relations with Pakistan. These are bold moves in favour of either peace or war, linking the dialogue to ending cross-border terrorism, discarding the unilateral emphasis on the sanctity of the Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir, escalating the conflict horizontally to draw in Balochistan and Afghanistan, and probing the limits of vertical escalation through cross-LoC military action |
| Date: | 11 October 2016 |
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| Title: | 351 : Change in America and its Impact on Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | There is no doubt that America is changing in several unexpected ways. This is reason enough for Asia " including South Asia " to get to know the country that is evolving and the direction it is taking as it moves forward towards another presidential election. Change has come for several reasons and each will matter for the world, especially for Asia. In this essay I will explore why the United States has moved away from the path it had followed with confidence once it became the sole superpower. That happened in 1991 with the collapse of the Soviet Union. With the current campaign for the US presidency having entered the final round of the contest, the nominees of the two main political parties for the forthcoming presidential elections have taken positions that will, in different ways, influence how America relates to the world, in particular to Asia. The end of history? |
| Date: | 28 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 350 : Merging the Railway and General Budgets: A Positive Development for India |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The Indian government has announced a slew of reforms in the budget process. A significant feature of this reform process is the decision to merge the Railway budget with the General budget. This decision certainly has a large number of advantages as a separate Railway budget had outlived its significance. The process to commercialise tariff fixation and free it from political influence is essential. This paper analyses the urgent issues that need attention to make the Railways a more financially stable enterprise. Private participation in the railways has been very limited. Innovative funding and greater capex (capital expenditure) in building the railway infrastructure deserves priority. The paper also analyses the attendant issues that need to be accorded greater attention in a time bound manner. |
| Date: | 28 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 349 : A New Phase in India-Pakistan Tensions: China’s Rising Stake |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | India’s “surgical strikes” at the “terrorist launch pads” in an area controlled by Pakistan in late-September 2016 – an event that Islamabad has vigorously sought to dispute – have produced an altogether new dynamic in the deeply-chequered relations between these two South Asian neighbours. Significantly, China – Pakistan’s “all-weather strategic partner” – has made nuanced statements that reveal its heightened stake in the evolving situation. The paper evaluates this triangular equation. |
| Date: | 28 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 348 : SAARC in Shambles? The Future of Regional Cooperation in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | India-Pakistan relations seem to have reached their nadir. But war is not an option for either, as its destructive potentials are immense. The impact of the situation on the regional organization, South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), is great. But the body must not be dissolved, and must be made immune from the periodic tensions that bedevil the States of the region. SAARC should be seen as belonging more to the peoples of the region than to governments, as indeed is the case. |
| Date: | 28 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 347 : India’s Construction Sector Gets a Boost |
| Author/s: | Vinod Rai |
| Abstract: | The construction sector in India contributes about 8% of the Gross Domestic Product. However, it offers employment opportunities to a large number of skilled and unskilled persons. To reinvigorate growth activity in this sector the government has taken very meaningful and far reaching decisions. The decision to pay upfront, 75% of the amount involved in a dispute even if government proposes to challenge the arbitration award, is very significant. Home buyers have been provided a level playing field now with the passing of the Real Estate (Development and Regulation) Act of 2016. This will provide a fillip to the purchase of apartments and make loans more easily accessible. An analysis of these decisions is attempted in this paper |
| Date: | 28 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 346 : India-Vietnam Ties: The Stamp of ‘Modi Doctrine’ |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy |
| Abstract: | The elevation of the India-Vietnam Strategic Partnership to Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in September 2016 can be helpful in promoting stability and economic prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region. Stronger ties between India and Vietnam would reflect India’s increasing presence in the region and could keep Southeast Asia free from the exclusive influence of a dominant power. |
| Date: | 21 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 345 : China-India Talks: Elusive ‘Strategic’ Consensus |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | Chinese President Xi Jinping has placed a premium on the bilateral economic aspects of the Sino-Indian Strategic and Cooperative Partnership, while calling for joint political efforts to improve the governance of global economy. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi, by contrast, tends to prioritise the bilateral political aspects of this partnership, while aligning with China for a few multilateral economic choices. |
| Date: | 21 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 344 : G20, Trade and Steel: Shaping New Alignments |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The Group of Twenty (G20) Summit at Hangzhou took place in September 2016 in the backdrop of adverse prospects for global trade given its sluggish growth and the rising protectionist sentiments. While committing to tackling protectionism, the summit expressed concerns on the overcapacity in global steel production and state- support that was distorting global markets. It established a global mechanism for monitoring overcapacity in world steel production. This marked the success of a rare strategic alignment between some major developed- and developing-country members of the G20, notably the United States, Europe and India, in tackling China's command over the global steel industry. It also marked a shift in the discourse on the role of market-distorting state-support in global trade - with China, rather than industrial nations, now being accused of resorting to such support in greater measure. |
| Date: | 21 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 343 : The Coming Test of Civil-Military Ties in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The Pakistan Army is reputed to be a coherent force, but obedience to the political master by its Chief has not always been its hallmark. Should, therefore, the passage of command from the present Army Chief be effected smoothly, and there is every reason to believe such would be the case, then it would buttress Pakistan's fledgling democracy. |
| Date: | 19 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 342 : Ten Challenges for the New RBI Governor |
| Author/s: | Duvvuri Subbarao |
| Abstract: | The new Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, Urjit Patel, has assumed office in relatively calmer times. Of his two immediate predecessors, Duvvuri Subbarao headed into the global financial crisis within less than two weeks of assuming office in 2008, and Raghuram Rajan came in the midst of a rupee crisis in 2013. Now, growth is on the uptrend, inflation is largely on target, fiscal consolidation is on track and the political situation is stable. Nevertheless, there is no dearth of challenges for Patel. |
| Date: | 19 September 2016 |
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| Title: | 341 : China-India ‘Éntente’: New Priorities |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A modicum of convergence of concerns as two rising economic and political powers defines the current China-India engagement. This does not necessarily translate into a confluence of the long-term strategic national interests of these two neighbours. So, the durability of Beijing’s latest charm-diplomacy towards Delhi, as evident during the Chinese Foreign Minister’s visit to India in August 2016, will be acutely tested. Both countries are playing for higher stakes in a potential ‘Asian century’. |
| Date: | 22 August 2016 |
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| Title: | 340 : Nepal: Caught Between Expectations and Anxieties |
| Author/s: | S D Muni |
| Abstract: | The new coalition government in Nepal, led by Maoist leader Prachanda, faces the formidable challenge of amending the recently-crafted Constitution for ushering in national reconciliation, besides the onerous tasks of reconstructing the quake-hit areas and raising the quality of administration. A silver lining, for now, is Prachanda's recognition of the ground realities such as the compulsions of coalition politics and the need for a balanced Nepali foreign policy towards India and China. |
| Date: | 19 August 2016 |
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| Title: | 339 : South Asian Diaspora Convention 2016: Linking People and Ideas |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Most South Asian governments organise events celebrating their respective 'diaspora'. But South Asian Diaspora Convention in Singapore is the only forum that lends this resourceful segment of migrant population, now, in some parts extending to the third generation, a regional identity. This would redound to the advantage of all concerned, and should be able to weave into a garland the manifold advantages of the commonality of identity spread across the three would-be global supra-states of the world: America, Europe and the emergent Asia. |
| Date: | 11 August 2016 |
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| Title: | 338 : Implications of the South China Sea Arbitration Case |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy |
| Abstract: | The South China Sea (SCS) arbitration case has given a fresh opportunity to ASEAN countries to reflect on their strategy and undertake confidence-building measures. A better understanding among ASEAN states is necessary if they are to offer a much-needed political message to China. Indeed, the SCS dispute is a litmus test for ASEAN unity and its role in maintaining regional stability and peace. |
| Date: | 29 July 2016 |
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| Title: | 337 : China’s Stand on Arbitral Award: Nuances for India |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | China’s rejection of the South China Sea arbitral award, issued on 12 July 2016, is of nuanced interest to India. At the Nuclear Suppliers Group in June, China had tacitly portrayed India as an outlier in the realm of international law on nuclear non-proliferation. Now, arguably, China itself can be seen to be in a similar position in the domain of the global law of the sea. This suits India. Unsurprisingly, an authoritative Chinese official source thinks that India’s reaction to China’s denunciation of the arbitral award has been cautious, careful and balanced. |
| Date: | 27 July 2016 |
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| Title: | 336 : India’s Recent FDI Reforms: An Analysis, and Possible Trends |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | India’s regulations for foreign direct investment (FDI) in various sectors have been relaxed in November 2015 and June 2016. This paper argues that, while India has seen a surge of FDI inflows over the last two years (not always in sectors where the regulations were relaxed), the rising global uncertainties and the Indian economy’s structural issues may hinder potential inflows of FDI in the medium-term |
| Date: | 8 July 2016 |
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| Title: | 335 : Shadow-Boxing over Nuclear Supplies: A China-India Tussle for ‘Power’ |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | China has now run the proverbial extra mile to demonstrate to India that it should know the limitations of its power to shape the emerging global order of the 21st Century. Beijing has done so by keeping India out of the Nuclear Suppliers Group, but explicitly disclaiming any such anti-India agenda. At a related echelon, New Delhi has acceded to the Missile Technology Control Regime, another high-profile group where significantly China is not a member. Outwardly esoteric, such a China-India shadow-boxing has not affected the dialogue between these two countries, at least not immediately. If sustained, such a potentially all-weather China-India dialogue should augur well for the future of Asia and the world. |
| Date: | 28 June 2016 |
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| Title: | 334 : India’s Interests in South China Sea: Implications for Regional and Global Security and Stability |
| Author/s: | R S Vasan, Director of the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the Head, Strategy and Security studies, Centre for Asian Studies at Chennai (India) |
| Abstract: | There are some very interesting developments in the maritime domain both in the Indian Ocean and also in the South China Sea (SCS). While China does have legitimate interest in the Indian Ocean, there are similar Indian interests in the SCS though India is not a party to the disputes in the SCS. China seems to carve out an ambitious plan in the Indian Ocean using some innovative instruments such as the Maritime Silk Road (MSR) to further its global reach and influence. To any observer it is clear that India has as much right in engaging the neighbours of China for commercial and strategic reasons. By all yardsticks India’s interests in the SCS and its engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and other East Asian powers are consistent with its Act East policy to further its own economic and strategic worth. New Delhi’s increasing engagement with the United States which has even gone to the extent of accepting India as a major Non-NATO ally in principle and has introduced a bill which is expected to become a law after the due process in USA [NATO being the North Atlantic Treaty Organization] has ruffled the feathers of China which sees the actions of the US in the SCS as unwanted intrusion. It even accuses the US of propping up the claimants in South China Sea by quoting various provisions of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and undertaking military manoeuvres in the area for protecting the concept of Freedom of Navigation. The developments in the South China Sea in the coming years will have an immediate impact on the region and also spin-off effects in the Indian Ocean where China seeks to establish its influence. |
| Date: | 1 June 2016 |
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| Title: | 333 : South Asia: A Strategic Update on Pitfalls, Potentials and Possibilities |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | South Asia is not a coherent entity. Despite that, the region is not without clout on the international stage. This is due to several factors – India’s sustainable democracy and economic growth, Pakistan’s strides in countering terrorism, Bangladesh’s emerging culture of democratic pluralism and economic performance, and Sri Lanka’s recent peaceful transfer of power and focus on development. This makes for an important role for the region in the global context. |
| Date: | 27 May 2016 |
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| Title: | 332 : India’s Maritime Turn: A Blue Economy Strategy in the Making? |
| Author/s: | Jivanta Schottli |
| Abstract: | The India Maritime Summit took place from 14 to 16 April 2016 and was launched with much fanfare by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In the Rajya Sabha, the Minister of State in the Ministry of Shipping announced that 141 Memoranda of Understanding/Business Agreements were signed, with estimated investments of about Rs. 83,000 crores. A National Perspective Plan for what has been termed “port-led development”, prepared under Sagarmala (a longterm programme approved by the Union Cabinet on 25 March, 2015), was also released on this occasion by the Minister for Road Transport and Highways and Shipping, Nitin Gadkari. Does this concerted effort to showcase India’s maritime sector and capacity signal a Blue Economy strategy? |
| Date: | 11 May 2016 |
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| Title: | 331 : Kerala’s Election: Signposts and a Paradox |
| Author/s: | Robin Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | Because of its position as a long-time bastion of communist parties and its progress in health and well-being, election trends and results in the southern Indian State of Kerala are invariably watched with special interest. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)]-led Left Democratic Front (LDF) is expected to win the poll on 16 May 2016, and thus continue the Kerala tradition of ousting incumbent governments. But the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) aims to win seats in Kerala for the first time and thereby signal the demise of the CPI(M). Chief Minister Oommen Chandy’s Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), in power for the past five years, struggles desperately to hang on. The next government will face major financial and environmental challenges. Kerala’s relative prosperity, based on remittances from more than two million Keralites working overseas, means growing environmental degradation. Governments, committed to longstanding social programs, lack funds for much-needed infrastructure. And in spite of its famed level of female literacy and favourable sex ratio, few women participate in Kerala’s politics. |
| Date: | 11 May 2016 |
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| Title: | 330 : Sri Lanka’s Economic Crisis and Post-Budget 2016 Tax Changes |
| Author/s: | Ms. Iromi Dharmawardhane , Research Associate at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Sri Lanka may face a severe balance of payments crisis, primarily brought on by the inability to service foreign loans, a high fiscal deficit and a foreign exchange crisis, if the government fails to finance the deficit in time through foreign borrowings. In an effort to increase revenue and stabilise the economy, the government also plans to make structural changes to its fiscal policy. New taxes and revisions to those proposed in Budget 2016 were announced in March 2016 to widen the country's tax base. While post-war Sri Lanka carries much growth and investment potential, the country's near-term economic outlook remains precarious. |
| Date: | 4 May 2016 |
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| Title: | 329 : A Preliminary Assessment of Skills Development in India |
| Author/s: | Dr Dipinder S Randhawa is Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Indian G overnment’s target of s killing and employing productively 500 million workers by 2022 does not afford it the luxury of time. Nor can the inherited legacy of decades of planned development be done away with overnight. With a young population and favourable demographic profile, India has a short window of opportunity to avail itself of the ‘demographic dividend’. While it may be premature to assess the overall effectiveness of the policy framework, there are early indications about the response to policy as well as how legacy issues are addressed . The challenges can be classified as social, structural and those resulting from policy distortions |
| Date: | 29 April 2016 |
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| Title: | 328 : Skills Development Landscape in India: Backdrop and the Policy Framework |
| Author/s: | Dr Dipinder S Randhawa is a Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | 2 Introduction India’s growth trajectory has been unorthodox. Developing economies typically shift from agriculture to manufacturing as surp l us is transferred from farms to investment in factories. From a predominantly agrarian base, the Indian economy , however , has been shifting to services, while manufacturing cont inues to lag ( Table 1). The s ervices sector contribute s 60 % of G ross D omestic P roduct (GDP) , but employ s just 34% of the workforce. India’s buoyant I nformation T echnology (IT) domain is globally competitive , accounting for 20% of the country’s exports, but it employs just 3 million persons . 52% of the work - force still depends on agriculture and associated activities. However , m ass - manufacturing alone has the capacity to absorb the large volume of labour that is displaced from the countrysi de. T he services sector absorbs less labour for each rupee of investment |
| Date: | 29 April 2016 |
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| Title: | 327 : India-Myanmar Relations: Context of Contemporary Geographical Routes and Linkages |
| Author/s: | Professor Ms Lipi Ghosh , Professor and Director of the Centre for South & South East Asian Studies, University of Calcutta (India) |
| Abstract: | India and Myanmar should focus on their borders as connecting points; safe and secure borders are essential for faster trade. There is the other side of the story - greater economic integration will ensure augmented safety along the borders resulting in an ambience of economic prosperity. It is high time to think of developing these connecting links and making large-scale investment in developing road- and railway-linkages. |
| Date: | 20 April 2016 |
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| Title: | 326 : H-1B Visas, India and the US: Trade Tussle Intensifies |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Senior Research Fellow and Research Lead at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Higher fees for H-1B visas have become a heavily contentious issue between India and the US with India taking the dispute to the WTO. The electoral rhetoric in the US criticises H-1B visas for snatching local jobs. This paper analyses the contrasting perceptions on temporary skilled migration into the US, IndiaÔÇÖs concerns on restricting the latter and the yawning gap between India and the US on trade issues notwithstanding growing strategic proximity. |
| Date: | 18 April 2016 |
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| Title: | 325 : Forging Sri Lanka’s Third Republican Constitution |
| Author/s: | Ayesha Kalpani Wijayalath |
| Abstract: | The Constitutional Assembly officially commenced the process of drafting Sri Lanka's Third Republican Constitution on 6 April 2016 with the prime promise to abolish the Executive Presidency, to introduce electoral reform and to provide a constitutional resolution for the national issue. It is vital for the National Unity Government to forge a constitution that consolidates democracy and creates an environment to prevent the recurrence of another ethnic conflict. |
| Date: | 12 April 2016 |
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| Title: | 324 : Structure and Resilience in India-Nepal Relations |
| Author/s: | Mr Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy is Research Associate , ISAS |
| Abstract: | India-Nepal relations can be placed on an even keel only after Nepal addresses its domestic political problems, particularly the task of making its Constitution more inclusive. India, too, must go beyond a mere demonstration of goodwill. |
| Date: | 5 April 2016 |
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| Title: | 323 : Labour Problems: Recent Developments in India |
| Author/s: | Professor John Harriss is Visiting Research Professor ,ISAS |
| Abstract: | India's trade unions are not a spent force, but the prospects of tripartite negotiations between employers, the state and unions to address the dysfunctionality of the country's current labour legislation, for both capital and labour, are probably dim. |
| Date: | 29 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 322 : The Imperative of Managing the Consequence of Global Change for South Asia |
| Author/s: | Mr Shahid Javed Burki is Visiting Senior Research Fellow , ISAS |
| Abstract: | The author advocates regional economic integration as the best means open to the South Asian states to cope with the raging changes in the global economic and political domains. |
| Date: | 29 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 321 : Significance of Some Salient Issues for South Asia’s Future |
| Author/s: | Mr Shahid Javed Burki is Visiting Senior Research Fellow , ISAS |
| Abstract: | While not all the issues of rising global concern can be traced to one or more countries in South Asia, the region is not immune to their likely consequences. |
| Date: | 29 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 320 : The Impact of Countries and Regions of Consequence on South Asia |
| Author/s: | Mr Shahid Javed Burki is Visiting Senior Research Fellow ,ISAS |
| Abstract: | The changing realities in various countries and regions are briefly outlined as possible or potential factors that could impinge on South Asia in significant ways. |
| Date: | 29 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 319 : Challenges of Identity and Issues |
| Author/s: | Mr Shahid Javed Burki is Visiting Senior Research Fellow , ISAS |
| Abstract: | There is a question whether Pakistan and Afghanistan will continue to be part of the South Asian sub-continent in their global outlook, or will drift towards becoming part of Central Asia or West Asia. |
| Date: | 29 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 318 : Elections in Four Indian States: A Test for the BJP and Modi |
| Author/s: | Dr. Ronojoy Sen , Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) |
| Abstract: | Elections will be held in four States and one Union Territory in April and May 2016. The polls will be a crucial test for the governing Bharatiya Janata Party at the Centre and a gauge of the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, two years into his tenure. |
| Date: | 15 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 317 : A Case for China’s Security Role in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Ms Ramandeep Kaur, formerly an Intern at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) |
| Abstract: | The paper focuses on the constructive role that China can play in enhancing security in South Asia. The potential contribution that China can make to enhancing non-traditional security in the region is significant. Two areas of non-traditional security, where fruitful cooperation between China and South Asia can be intensified, will be explored in depth, namely environmental security as well as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief. China’s contribution to economic security - another important aspect of non-traditional security - in the region has been well-documented and will therefore not be the focus of the present analysis. Armed with huge foreign currency reserves and a vast engineering and manufacturing capacity, China is facilitating infrastructure development at an unprecedented scale. An opportunity for cooperation on the non-traditional security front is also presenting itself in anti-terrorism endeavour. The threat of terrorism from the Islamic State, can catalyse closer China-South Asian anti-terror cooperation. The paper proceeds in the following manner. Arguing for the importance of South Asian security from the Chinese point of view, a peaceful South Asia is placed as the backdrop of the Chinese policy framework, both international and domestic. An attempt is then made to look at the details of cooperation in non-traditional security areas, following which there is a discussion ofthe potential collaboration in counter-terrorism efforts. |
| Date: | 14 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 316 : Down-Sizing Sri Lanka’s Executive Presidency |
| Author/s: | Ms Ayesha Kalpani Wijayalath ,Research Assistant at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) |
| Abstract: | The campaign for curbing executive powers and strengthening democratic governance was a decisive factor in Maithripala Sirisena’s victory in Sri Lanka’s presidential election in January 2015. In keeping with his ‘100-day programme’, President Sirisena succeeded in getting the 19th Amendment to the Constitution duly enacted. The Amendment does not ensure a total abolition of the executive presidency, yet it dismantled, or at the minimum, diluted, the excessive powers of the executive presidency. It can, therefore, be regarded as a milestone along Sri Lanka’s path towards greater representative democracy. |
| Date: | 10 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 315 : India-Bangladesh Relations: Moving towards Friendship |
| Author/s: | Ms Chandrani Sarma,Research Assistant at the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) |
| Abstract: | India-Bangladesh relations are advancing rapidly in recent times. There are of c impediments such as non-tariff barriers (NTBs) in trade, and the Teesta water-sharing need to be overcome through negotiations. But if the maritime agreement is any guid ahead appears to be smooth, provided there is sufficient political will on both sides. |
| Date: | 10 March 2016 |
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| Title: | 314: India Budget 2016 and the Indian Economy |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee |
| Abstract: | India's Union Budget 2016 has been criticised for lacking big bang reforms, or not actively promoting industries and, instead, being largely pro-rural and agricultural sectors. This paper throws light on some aspects of the budget which are small steps towards improving the business climate of the country, keeping in mind the constraints, advantages and vision of the present Union Government. The major points presented here are largely derived from a panel discussion organised by the Institute ofSouth Asian Studies (ISAS) in Singapore on 3 March, 2016. The panellists were Mr Vinod Rai, Dr Jehangir Aziz, Mr Rohan Solapurkar, Mr Vikram Khanna and Dr Amitendu Palit. |
| Date: | 11 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 313 : Discourse on Kashmir: From Territoriality to ‘Enlightened Sovereignty’ |
| Author/s: | Gull Wani, Professor of Political Science at the University of Kashmir in India |
| Abstract: | The author calls for renewed focus on the idea of ‘soft borders’ between India and Pakistan, with particular reference to Jammu and Kashmir, in the light of a theory of ‘enlightened sovereignty’ that supersedes territoriality and other conventional attributes of sovereignty.Rich dividends in terms of peace and development can be reaped if South Asian countries in general, and India and Pakistan in particular, work together. Many legacy issues, particularly the dispute over Kashmir, have hampered cooperation between India and Pakistan, and the overall development of South Asia. This does not augur well for the search for a unified geo-political and geo-economic South Asia. The famous observation by Israel’s former Foreign Minister Abba Eban that “history teaches us that men and nations behave wisely once they exhaust all other alternatives” holds true for India and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 11 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 312 : The Goods & Services Tax Debate in India: Concepts and Issues |
| Author/s: | S Narayan , Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The chequered but ongoing political efforts to introduce a uniform Goods & Services Tax (GST) throughout India should actually be seen through a larger economic prism. The current sense of urgency, regardless of the web of politics in which this move is caught, can be explained by a simple but important expectation. The GST can indeed be a game changer for trade among India's sub-national states, because the measure, as conceived, is likely to contribute at least one percentage point to the growth in the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP). |
| Date: | 5 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 311 : The Lifting of Sanctions on Iran: Implications for India-Iran Economic and Commercial Ties |
| Author/s: | Seyed Hossein Zarhani , Lecturer at the Department of Political Science, South Asia Institute (SAI), Heidelberg University, Germany |
| Abstract: | Iran’s extra oil production can decrease oil price in global markets, which can be considered as relief for India’s economy. However, by terminating the Rupee-based payment mechanism, India’s products do not possess their exclusive market in Iran. Development project of Farzad-B gas field, investment in Chabahar port and an undersea gas pipeline can be seen as the potential prospects of mutual cooperation.“We never forget our friend who has been with us during a difficult time;” Javad Zarif, Iran’s Foreign Minister, commented on Indo-Iran economic and commercial relations after the lifting of the sanctions during his visit to New Delhi in August 2015 |
| Date: | 3 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 310 : India-APEC Products Trade: Importance of Trade in Intermediate Products and the Challenges Ahead |
| Author/s: | Deeparghya Mukherjee, Visiting Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | India's principal trade partners are countries/economies in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) region, and over the last decade the share of APEC in India's trade has been growing. Specifically, India's trade share with East and Southeast Asian countries has been increasing significantly. Given that APEC's share in world trade increases year on year, as well as its share in India's trade basket, there is a need to look deeper into this. |
| Date: | 2 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 309 : Could the Middle East Quagmire Be Solved with Something like ASEAN? |
| Author/s: | Girija Pande, Member of the Management Board of ISAS |
| Abstract: | “If you want to start a third world war-just call CNN and do something crazy like a belly dance or something here!” said our erudite guide, as I stood surveying one of the most historic and probably one of the most politically sensitive spots in the world.This was Jerusalem – the old city – where my family and I stood on a hot July day in front of Temple Mount (Dome of the Rock to Muslims).The scorching Mediterranean sun reflected off the muzzle of the gun held by the soldier guarding what must be the most religious site on earth: You had the Wailing Wall, which is the only remains of the original Temple of Solomon – where once the Arc of Covenant was kept and the same spot where Abraham almost sacrificed his son Issac, making this the holiest spot in the world for Jews; just a stone’s throw away is the Church of the Holy Sepulcher-site believed by Christians to be where Christ was crucified. |
| Date: | 1 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 308 : Hollande in Delhi: The Hidden Dynamic of Indo-French Bonhomie |
| Author/s: | Subrata Kumar Mitra, Director and Visiting Research Professor at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The visit of the French President Mr François Hollande to India as the Chief Guest at the Republic Day celebrations provides an important window to observe the unfolding of Indo- French relations and to assess their significance for India’s larger diplomatic goals. The visit also shows the value of ‘parade diplomacy’ as an instrument of soft power in the age of instant communication at the global level. |
| Date: | 1 February 2016 |
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| Title: | 307 : The Lure of Lahore : Need for India-Pakistan D?®tente |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Principal Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | India and Pakistan must learn that Pathankot and Peshawar were mindless acts of terror, to prevent whose recurrence, there is the need to enhance cooperation, not diminish it. Pakistan must continue to take the preventive measures in real earnest, and India must try and rein in the detractors. The stakes are staggeringly high for both. Failure in carrying forward the initiative for comprehensive dialogue that has happily begun may have winners among the ‘nay-sayers’, but will also have two losers: India and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 27 January 2016 |
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| Title: | 306 : India’s Bid for APEC Membership : Trade Policy is the Stumbling Block |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Senior Research Fellow and Research Lead at ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s chances of becoming a member of the APEC (Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation) forum brightened considerably after the United States welcomed its interest in early 2015. But till now, there has hardly been any progress, with doubts continuing to linger over India’s commitment to an open and forward-looking external trade policy. This paper underlines the divergence between India’s foreign and trade policies, and argues that the latter has hardly been able to match the energy and proactivity of the former. Without strong signals on commitment to external sector reforms, India will find it difficult to gain support from the APEC community as a prospective member. |
| Date: | 26 January 2016 |
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| Title: | 305 : Dealing with Pakistan: Implications for India’s Pakistan policy after Pathankot |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh , Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent terrorist attack on the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot has sparked a new round of commentaries on how New Delhi should deal with the country's internal security situation and with neighbouring Pakistan, given the suspicion that terrorists from that country had carried out this attack. The planned India-Pakistan talks are on hold, even as the Modi Government is under domestic pressure to shore up security at home. |
| Date: | 18 January 2016 |
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| Title: | 304 : India: Developing World’s Voice on Climate Issues |
| Author/s: | Chandrani Sarma, Research Assistant at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Conference on climate change in Paris in December 2015 demonstrated what an uphill road it is for all nations to ‘come together and save the world’. India, the fourth-largest contributor to worldwide carbon emissions, has not only emerged as a key player but also as a voice for developing nations. The world will be watching as it balances its vision of a greener world with its vision of higher economic growth. Much as the conference projected the urgent imperative of corrective action, it also demonstrated the difficulty of achieving collective action that could lead to a durable and effective solution. |
| Date: | 12 January 2016 |
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| Title: | 303 : An Aspirational ‘new wave’ of India-Pakistan Dialogue |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana |
| Abstract: | The terrorist strike at an Indian military installation early in the New Year has not immediately set the clock back on the positive outcome of the earlier Christmas-Day informal meeting between the leaders of India and Pakistan in Lahore. However, the success of the new “comprehensive bilateral dialogue”, if launched by mid-January 2016 as anticipated, is not assured yet, despite the Pakistani military itself having a ‘proxy negotiator’ now. Nor can external stakes in a stable Pakistan-India equation guarantee a settlement between them. For now, there are some signs of a cautious, new resolve for peace on both sides of the conventional divide. |
| Date: | 6 January 2016 |
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