| Title: | 88 : The Economics and Politics of China’s Exchange Rate Adjustment |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | China faces significant political pressure from industrialised economies to revalue its currency upward. Internally, China’s currency ad justment depends largely on the dynamics of its labour and financial markets. Millions of underutilised Chinese labourers, who are in the process of migration from the countryside to urban areas, give Beijing the upper hand in allowing a gradual revaluation of its currency. However, the growing cost of monetary sterilisation is the key hurdle in keeping its currency undervalued for long. Nevertheless, exchange rates are not always determined by economic forces alone – the breakdown of the Bretton Woods exchange rate system in 1971 and the signing of the Plaza Accord in 1985 are two examples. The available data shows that South Asia is generally not hurt, if not a gainer, by an undervalued Chinese currency. |
| Date: | 29 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 87 : The Copenhagen Climate Accord: Half May be Better than Full |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow-designate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | It took strenuous efforts on the part of the United States President Barack Obama to get the squabbling conferees representing 193 countries to issue the “Copenhagen Accord”. This was a three-page, twelve-paragraph and two-annex document made public a few minutes before the two-week “conference of the parties” was set to conclude. The Accord is not a binding treaty and as such does not commit the major atmosphere-polluting countries to cut carbon emissions according to an agreed set of targets. As such, the Accord did not please the environment community or the thousands of protesters who kept vigil for two weeks outside the conference hall. That said, the Accord will be a historic document for at least three reasons. Firstly, the conferees – especially the United States (US) – accepted the finding by scientists that global warming was occurring because of human activity. Secondly, it was recognised that much greater adjustment efforts needed to be made by rich countries compared to those that were still at a relatively early stage of development. And, thirdly, that the developing world needed a large infusion of capital to move towards a less carbon-intensive strategy of development as well as to cope with the consequences of global warming. Many in the developing world were bound to be severely affected no matter how stringent were the mitigating actions were, or how much the global community was prepared to take or likely to adopt. |
| Date: | 22 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 86 : Towards a World without Nuclear Arms: Can 2010 be a Year of Hope? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | It has been long since advocates of a world without nuclear weapons have had any reason to cheer. Over the past decade things appear to have gone from bad to worse. The entry into force of the arduously negotiated Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) could not be effected for want of a requisite number of ratifications.2 India and Pakistan tested a number of devices each in 1998, and a decade later North Korea joined the ranks. The 2005 Review Conference of the Non-Proliferation Treaty was an unmitigated disaster.3 The Bush administrationÔÇÖs interventionist actions in Iraq and Afghanistan fuelled the notion that a surefire way to protect oneself from bigger powers was to acquire nuclear capability by hook or by crook. While it is true that deterrence held, and no conflict occurred involving nuclear weapons, with the increase in acquisitions by a larger number of states, the mathematical probability of a disaster, even unwitting or unintended, was enhanced. |
| Date: | 9 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 85 : Sri Lanka’s Post-Conflict Transition: Reconstruction, Reconciliation and Aid Effectiveness |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In the heyday of the Non-Aligned Movement, Sri Lanka’s politicians and diplomats wielded an influence disproportionate to the country’s size on the international stage. However, the last 30 years of armed conflict and the way in which it ended has tarnished the island’s international reputation. Yet, at home, the Mahinda Rajapakse government, by comprehensively defeating the Liberation of Tamil Tigers of Eelam, has secured the lasting gratitude of the majority of the people and is widely expected to sweep the general and presidential elections to be held in 2010. The Sri Lankan government also has a golden opportunity to move quickly to heal the wounds of years of conflict through timely reconstruction and reconciliation. The international community would need to support the transition by ensuring aid effectiveness and good donorship. |
| Date: | 19 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 84 : Looking beyond Current Account Imbalances: Imperatives for The United States |
| Author/s: | Suparna Karmakar, Visiting Research Fellow with the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The growing trade disparity between the world's two largest economies, the United States and China, is often seen as the genesis of the current global imbalance, which exploded in 2007 with the onset of the financial crisis in the United States and the resultant worldwide economic recession. In other words, the crisis was caused by three interlinked factors - high liquidity (in turn, catalysed by imbalances in payments), high leverage and regulatory oversight. Many solutions for unwinding the global imbalance have been proposed, requiring nations to moderate production and consumption imbalances and calling for financial sector regulations and reforms. However, the issue which needs to be put into the centre of domestic reform policies is that of managing the changing relative competitiveness of nations. This change needs to be reflected especially in the world's largest economy, viz. the United States. |
| Date: | 15 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 83 : Remittances as a Source of External Financing in South Asia1 |
| Author/s: | Sasidaran Gopalan and Ramkishen S. Rajan |
| Abstract: | The decline in Official Development Assistance (ODA) extended to many developing countries in recent years has made it necessary for them to look beyond official sources of financing and tap the various sources of private external financing, including workers' remittances. This paper discusses the relative magnitudes and stability of the various sources of external finance available to developing countries, with a specific focus on individual South Asian countries. Particular attention is paid to workers' remittances which is an important and stable source of financing for the developing countries, especially those in South Asia. |
| Date: | 29 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 82 : Myanmar: Effecting Positive Changes |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | For a long time now, there has been no good news coming out of Myanmar. On the contrary, the bad publicity associated with Myanmar has made the world even more wary of the iron-fisted sombre generals who govern the country. The artist, Andy Warhol, has said that everyone has 'his fifteen minutes' of fame. The generals in Myanmar are having theirs as well, but for the wrong reasons. |
| Date: | 26 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 81 : Understanding Bilateral Foreign Direct Investment Flows in Emerging Asia |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan,Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS; Rabin Hattari |
| Abstract: | Many Asian companies have become significant foreign direct investors abroad. According to some rough estimates, intra-Asian FDI flows accounted for about 40 percent of Asia’s total FDI inflows in 2004. If correct, this share is broadly comparable to the extent of intra-Asian trade flows. However, unlike trade flows, there has been little to no detailed examination of FDI flows between Asian economies at a bilateral level. This paper uses bilateral FDI flows data to investigate the trends and drivers of intra-Asian FDI flows in the period 1997 to 2004-05 based on data from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). For developing economies, the two most comprehensive databases on FDI inflows and outflows are the International Monetary Fund-Balance of Payment (IMF-BOP) Manual and UNCTAD. Neither source divides FDI into mergers and acquisitions versus Greenfield investments. UNCTAD by far has the most complete FDI database, and unlike the IMF-BOP data, it compiles data on bilateral FDI flows – both inflows and outflows. |
| Date: | 17 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 80 : The Rise of China: How it will Impact the World |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | China is rising again, and this time, the change is taking place in response to Beijing's policy responses to an external economic crisis. China has handled domestic economic crises before but this time around the structural impact on the country's economy and its relationship with the outside world will be very different and considerably more profound. How China will change and how that change will influence the world - not just the global economy but also the international political order - are subjects that have begun to receive some attention in academic and policy circles. This paper attempts to bring out some of the issues that should inform the debate. |
| Date: | 6 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 79 : India’s Foreign Direct Investment Flows: Trying to Make Sense of the Numbers |
| Author/s: | Sasidaran Gopalan, Research Associate at the ISAS ; Ramkishen S. Rajan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | One of the noteworthy dimensions of India’s increasing integration with the world economy has been the increase in both gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into and outflows from the country over the last decade. The simultaneous spurt in both FDI inflows and outflows has meant that FDI has not been a significant source of balance of payments financing on a net basis, at least until 2006 (Figure 1). The rise of India as a source and host of FDI has begun to generate a sizeable literature on the determinants and characteristics of such flows at an aggregate level. However, much less work has been devoted to the analysis of FDI inflows and outflows at the bilateral level, primarily due to the paucity of data. |
| Date: | 28 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 78 : India’s Nuclear Navy: Catching up with China |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | The launch of India’s indigenous nuclear-powered submarine on 26 July 2009 marks a major breakthrough in the nation’s efforts to build a nuclear navy and close the gap with China’s growing underwater deterrent capability. New Delhi, like Beijing, had to struggle for decades to advance on its maritime nuclear project, involving the technologies of nuclear propulsion, underwater launch of ballistic missiles and the art of operating nuclear submarines. Although China is well ahead of India in the deployment of a credible sea-based deterrent, the time has come for Beijing and New Delhi to start a substantive dialogue on nuclear and maritime confidence building measures. |
| Date: | 20 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 77 : How Flexible have Asian Exchange Rate Regimes become in the Post-crisis Era? |
| Author/s: | Tony Cavoli; Ramkishen S. Rajan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A decade after the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98, Asia has once again been hurt by the global financial crisis that emanated in the financial sectors of the United States and Western Europe. The high degree of openness of Asia to trade, investment and capital flows inevitably meant that the regional economies would be impacted, although they had coped admirably until September 2008, even leading many analysts to talk about the possible 'decoupling' of the region from the West. Such talk quickly vanished with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, which led to the skyrocketing of emerging market spreads and extreme tightening of credit markets worldwide. The sharp curtailment in export demand, freezing of credit markets, including trade financing and wholesale funding, as well as the abrupt reversal in capital flows to emerging markets, worked in tandem to curtail near-term growth in Asia quite heavily (Rajan, 2009 and Figure 1). While the spillovers from the global financial crisis to Asia were sudden and rather dramatic, once credit markets started thawing by March 2009, Asia looked poised to emerge most rapidly from the global economic contraction compared to many other regions. |
| Date: | 20 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 76 : Asia and the Global Financial Crisis: A Broad Overview |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Until the mid-1990s, emerging Asian economies were among the most dynamic in the world. In addition to the sustained growth of the newly industrialising economies (NIEs) - Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore and Taiwan - and the near-NIEs in Southeast Asia (notably the economies of Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand), the Asian giants of China and (later) India were rapidly integrating into the global economy. The Asian crisis of 1997-98 brought the growth in the NIEs and Southeast Asia to a screeching halt. The region experienced a period of painful but much needed deleveraging and corporate and financial restructuring (including consolidation, loan loss recognition and restructuring of bad loans) as well as some institutional and governance reforms. The region faced setbacks with a series of negative shocks in 2000-03, including the collapse of the NASDAQ bubble, the spread of SARS, the Avian flu and some natural disasters, all of which helped delay a full-fledged recovery in both growth and asset prices. Although some doubts were expressed about whether the region could regain its lustre at all, Asia re-emerged quite strongly, with growth returning to pre-crisis levels and asset prices, in most cases, even surpassing their pre-crisis levels. |
| Date: | 13 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 75 : Does the type of Private Capital Flow matter for Financial Stability in Emerging Economies? |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The painful structural changes that much of emerging Asia went through since the 1997-98 crisis, as well as the relatively more cautious approach towards capital account liberalisation and foreign bank entry in a number of the Asian economies appear to have helped to reduce the extent of damage that these economies faced in the recent global financial crisis. The region has clearly suffered relatively less than many other emerging economies, particularly those in Europe. Indeed, with the exception of Pakistan, the vast majority of the emerging economies that have recently obtained crisis-related loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been from emerging Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), broadly termed Eastern Europe hereafter.3 Among the Eastern European borrowers that have already negotiated Stand-by Arrangement loans are Romania, Ukraine, Hungary, Belarus and Latvia. |
| Date: | 7 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 74 : Pakistan: Making the Budget in Difficult Times |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | These are extremely difficult times for Pakistan. It is not only the challenge thrown at the state by the Islamic extremists that has caused so much anxiety inside and outside the country. Many people that have influence in shaping world politics have called this challenge an "existential threat" for Pakistan. Among them is Hillary Clinton, America's Secretary of State, who issued the warning that, unless Islamabad realises the enormity of the threat extremism poses to the very existence of the country, the Pakistani state may simply unravel. There is certainly some exaggeration in this assessment - it was made, most probably, to draw the attention of the policymakers in Islamabad. It seems to have served that purpose. In mid-May 2009, the military was ordered into Swat, a district in the North-West Frontier Province, and it seems to have taken the area back from the extremists. The armed forces have now been told to go after the leadership of the group that goes by the name of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan. It is loosely associated with Al-Qaeda, and in Baitullah Mehsud, it has his own charismatic leader. |
| Date: | 3 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 73 : Presidential Elections in Afghanistan: Unintended Consequences? |
| Author/s: | Shakti Sinha, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Incumbent Hamid Karzai is the front-runner, by a considerable distance, in the upcoming Presidential elections in Afghanistan – a far cry from predictions made as recently as six months ago that he had become lame duck as he had lost the confidence of both the Afghans and the Americans. His opposition was clustering around a new grouping, the United National Front, his allies were deserting him and he seemed doomed to be in the footnotes of Afghanistan’s history. Critically, there were constitutional and legal issues about his term that seemed to seriously question his continuance in office beyond 22 May 2009, with elections scheduled only for 20 August 2009. However, the circle seems to have come around and those Afghans and foreigners hoping for a change of leadership and fortunes are sounding extremely demoralised. |
| Date: | 1 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 72 : Tackling Battlefield Asymmetries: Changing Tactics in Emerging Insurgencies |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Most current military conflicts are between apparent unequals. Yet, we see that the obvious and expected result, which is the victory of the superior power, is not so easily achieved. For instance, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization has not scored remarkable victories against the ragtag Taliban in Afghanistan; the well-armed and equipped Pakistani army has been unable to bring the unruly Frontiers under its control and; not so long ago, the Hizbullah was able to grind to a halt the advance of the powerful Israeli forces in Lebanon. In each case, the numerically smaller and poorly equipped adversary, all non-state actors, resorted to unconventional means to deter the more powerful. This is also why the defence establishment in Islamabad has been cautious about proclaiming the end to the conflict in Swat. |
| Date: | 18 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 71 : Indian Elections 2009: A Prognosis of the Verdict |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The results to the 15th general elections for the Lower House (Lok Sabha) of India’s parliament were announced on 16 and 17 May 2009. Subsequently, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA), under the leadership of Dr Manmohan Singh, formed the government for its second successive tenure. This paper analyses the outcomes of India’s general elections by examining the performances of the different political parties in terms of seats won and votes obtained. It tries to identify the reasons behind the Congress winning far more seats than the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by comparing their regional performances. It also analyses, in the same vein, the poor performance of the Left parties and the failure of the Third Front to make an impact in the elections. |
| Date: | 29 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 70 : Three Elections and Two State Actions – Has South Asia Finally Turned the Corner? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | There are two, perhaps three, nation-building ideas that have been in conflict in South Asia since the British left the subcontinent in the late 1940s. One was espoused by Jawaharlal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India, who governed the country for the first 17 years after independence in 1947. According to this belief, even in a country with such diversity as India, it was possible to construct economic, political and social systems that would protect all citizens, not only those who constituted the majority. Sunil Khilnani, the Indian political theorist, has called this the “idea of India”.2 There were, in fact, two ideas, both supported by Nehru and both with good historical justification. These two ideas were brought together in the Indian Constitution promulgated in January 1950. According to the historian, Ramachandra Guha, the Constitution brought together what he calls the “national” and “social” revolutions. “The national revolution focused on democracy and liberty – which the experience of colonial rule had denied to all Indians – whereas the social revolution focused on emancipation and equality, which tradition and scripture had withheld from women and low castes.”3 The idea of India, in other words, was a composite one. |
| Date: | 28 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 69 : Manmohan Singh-II: The Foreign Policy Challenges |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Foreign policy did not appear to be a major issue for voters in India's 2009 parliamentary elections. However, it did indirectly shape the electoral outcome. The Left's stubborn position on the India-United States civil nuclear deal, stretched to the extent of almost pulling down the government, did dent its self-projected image of a constructive nationalist political force and contributed to its poll-drubbing. In contrast, the civil nuclear deal issue added to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's image as a quiet but firm leader. After signing the deal, nuclear commercial transactions were concluded first with France, Russia and Kazakhstan rather than the United States. The United States intelligence assessments of India's foreign policy asserted that it will follow an independent path, collaborating with the United States only when India's own interests so dictate. |
| Date: | 26 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 68 : Post-Election India: How the Neighbours View the Elephant |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Indians have spoken electorally. In what has been the largest election ever, at any time anywhere, in the world's biggest democracy, they have returned to power one of the oldest political parties in the world, the Indian National Congress, to lead their government. They have displayed their willingness to continue to be led by a wise man, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, and an experienced woman, the Congress Party's President, Sonia Gandhi, till such time change and youth come, as they will inexorably, in the form of Rahul Gandhi in leadership role. In the same breath, therefore, this vast electorate has opted for continuity and change, thus displaying the maturity of the common voter and demonstrating the efficacy of democracy as the most effective form of social organisation. |
| Date: | 22 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 67 : Nepal in Crisis |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Nepal’s peace process has been transiting from one crisis to another. The latest one has been precipitated by the resignation of Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) and the search for a new coalition government. Prachanda’s resignation was in protest against President Ram Baran Yadav’s decision to reject the cabinet’s decision to sack the army chief, General Rookmangud Katawal. The Maoist-led government sacked General Katawal on the charges of his “defiance” of civilian authority. The government wanted to establish the principle of “civilian supremacy” by curbing the army’s tendency to ignore the government’s directives. The other coalition partners in the Maoist-led government, the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (UML) and the Madhesh Janadhikar Forum (MJF) had reservations about the sacking of the army chief. The UML walked out of the cabinet meeting and the MJF submitted a note of dissent when the cabinet took the decision on 3 May 2009. |
| Date: | 20 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 66 : The Sorrows of Swat and the Mayhem in the Malakand: What Now? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As early as the 6th century B.C., the Chinese traveller, Huang-Tsang, praised the forests, flowers and the fruits of the rugged mountains and the beautiful valley of Swat. So did the Greek conqueror, Alexander the Great, who arrived there a couple of hundred years later. Thus, visitors from the east and the west were in agreement on the lands idyllic ambience in the ancient ages. In the modern days, Swat has been called the Switzerland of Pakistan for the same scenic splendour. Alas, the comparison with Switzerland ends there for, unlike the playground of Europe, Swat today is a stage where a Grecian tragedy of Olympian proportions is being enacted. |
| Date: | 19 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 65 : The Politics of International Aid and New Asian Donors: Prospects for Peace and Reconstruction in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The United States' government that wields considerable influence at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has sought to delay the US$1.9 billion loan appeal by Sri Lanka in the context of an unfolding humanitarian crisis in the island. The Sri Lankan government, which has promised that it is at the end of its endgame with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), is seeking funds for the reconstruction of the northeast conflict-affected region, among other things. Colombo argues that it is fighting a 'war on terror'. Clearly, Colombo needs the IMF loan to service its external debt as a result of soaring defence expenditure and external borrowings which are also related to controversial oil-hedging deals. |
| Date: | 14 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 64 : Indian Elections 2009: The Prime-ministerial Candidates |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The casting of votes for India's 15th general elections draws to a close on 13 May 2009. The final phase of voting on 13 May 2009 will see curtains coming down on the elections in the world's largest democracy - an exercise that lasted for almost four weeks spread over 543 constituencies across 28 states and seven Union Territories. |
| Date: | 13 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 63 : Indian Elections 2009: What the Forecasts Say |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The elections of 2009 are unique for a number of reasons. These include the lack of discernible popular waves favouring any political formation led by the two main national parties; the enhanced significance of regional parties; selective influences of diverse political leaders; and the intensity with which the elections are being fought over five weeks. |
| Date: | 12 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 62 : The Malaise in Myanmar: What is to be done? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A question that the international community is currently grappling with is how to handle the situation and the powers that be in Myanmar. The regime, headed by the 75-year-old General Than Shwe, continues to control the destiny of the nation and rules it with an iron fist, unresponsive to calls for change, both from within and outside the country. Indeed, the country has been run by the military junta for more than four decades, dating back to when General Ne Win staged a coup in 1962 (Myanmar, then known as Burma, had obtained independence from the British in 1948), suspended the Constitution, banned the opposition and introduced “the Burmese way to socialism”. Power was exercised by the State Law and Order Council (SLORC) which put down massive public demonstrations in 1987 and 1988. And in the following year in 1989, the SLORC changed the name of the country to Myanmar, declaring that it was more in consonance with Burmese history and culture. The United States and many Western countries refused to recognise this change of nomenclature and continued to call it Burma, though at the United Nations took it on the new name. |
| Date: | 8 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 61 : The Sri Lankan Situation and the Principle of the ‘Responsibility to Protect’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Of course, the Indians need to tread a delicate path as their government is well aware of the tremendous Sri Lankan sensitivities to any mention of the ‘R2P’ in this context. About two years ago, a foreign academic, Dr Rama Mani, who was the Executive Director of the International Centre for Ethnic Studies in Colombo, was sacked and her visa cancelled for espousing this idea. Also trenchantly criticised by the pro-government media in Colombo was Gareth Evans, former Australian Foreign Minister, who is the President of the International Crisis Group and a champion of the principle, for suggesting at a lecture hosted by Dr Mani As the Sri Lankan army presses on with its final assault on the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) stronghold, with over 50,000 civilians feared entrapped in the fighting, Indian External Affairs Minister, Pranab Mukherjee, made a public statement on the evolving situation. He said, “These killings must stop. The Sri Lankan government has a responsibility to protect its own citizens and the LTTE must stop its barbaric attempt to hold civilians hostage.” A key element in his remarks was the use of the phrase ‘responsibility to protect’. Was he referring to the recently-adopted United Nations (UN) principle which also goes by the acronym of ‘R2P’ and hinting at its relevance to the Sri Lankan context? It is most likely not the case, at least, in a military sense. |
| Date: | 30 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 60 : Indian Elections 2009: Where are Economic Reforms Headed? |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India is holding its 15th general elections from 16 April to 13 May 2009. The elections are taking place in challenging circumstances. A variety of cross-cutting political, security, economic and socio-cultural issues are influencing the elections. The exercise is impacted by multiple parties, personalities and positions from India's vast political spectrum. |
| Date: | 28 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 59 : The New Bangladesh Government: The Road Ahead |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | 29 December 2008 was a watershed in Bangladesh's democratic evolution. In the elections that have been called historic, the Awami League-led Grand Alliance or Mohajote swept the national polls. Following an overwhelming victory, its leader, Sheikh Hasina, was sworn in on 6 January 2009 as Prime Minister of this nation of 147 million people. There could be few better examples to underscore this point than the Shakespearean quote that "uneasy lies the head that wears a crown." She was immediately confronted with challenges that were legion, including a bloody mutiny among border guards. The future of democracy of the vast populace, impoverished yet filled with promise, will depend on her ability to tackle these issues successfully. |
| Date: | 9 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 58 : Pakistan: A Year after the Democratic Elections |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan emerged out of a decade of military rule under President Pervez Musharraf on 18 February 2008 when the general elections were held. During the last period of President Musharraf's reign, Pakistan was reeling under economic malaise and a serious political crisis. The civil society inspired a broad-based people's movement, led by the lawyers that eventually resulted in the end of military dictatorship and the dawn of a new era of democratic governance. Now, it has been one year since Pakistan re-entered the democratic world and the question is whether Pakistan is in a better state now than it was prior to 18 February 2008. This paper reviews the state of Pakistan a year after the installation of the democratically-elected government. |
| Date: | 6 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 57 : Indian General Election 2009 – Geographical Influence of Regional Parties and Electoral Outlook |
| Author/s: | Sasidaran Gopalan, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s elections are becoming increasingly trickier for psephologists, given the heavily fractured mandates produced by such exercises. One of the plausible reasons for the electoral mandate having become increasingly splintered is the steady emergence of a large number of ‘non-national’ parties in India’s domestic politics and the electoral process. A fragmented and fractured polity with regional and state actors wielding significant bargaining power with the national parties has decisively changed the structure, nature and outcome of Indian elections since the 1990s. |
| Date: | 2 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 56 : Indian General Election 2009 – The Women to Watch |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the role of select women politicians from national and regional parties in the forthcoming Indian elections. It focuses particularly on the significant impact that three key women politicians are likely to have on the elections and the post-electoral government formation. These three politicians are Mayawati Kumari (Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh and leader of the Bahujan Samaj Party [BSP]), J. Jayalalitha (former Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu and the General Secretary of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam [AIADMK]) and Mamata Banerjee (Former Union Minister and main leader of the Trinamool Congress [TC]). Before providing a detailed analysis of the significance of the three leaders, the paper will set the context by highlighting the role of women in South Asia's politics, women voters and the representation of women in India's Parliament, and an overview of women leaders in India's politics. |
| Date: | 25 March 2009 |
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| Title: | 55 : Another Upheaval Averted But Pakistan Remains on the Brink |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In the second week of March 2009, it seemed Pakistan was on the verge of another bout of volatility, instability and perhaps violent clashes between the police and demonstrators protesting the verdict by a three-judge bench of the Supreme Court declaring Nawaz Sharif and his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, ineligible to hold public office. In addition, they demanded the restoration of the displaced Chief Justice of the Pakistan Supreme Court, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry, and several other judges, who had been deposed during the emergency imposed by General Pervez Musharraf in late 2007. |
| Date: | 23 March 2009 |
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| Title: | 54 : Indian Elections 2009: Foreign Policy Will Hardly Matter |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Elections in a country like India are seldom driven by foreign policy. The voters, concerned generally as they are with the bread and butter, and law and order issues, do not get mobilised by foreign policy dynamics and diplomatic nuances. Even major strategic achievements with global implications do not move ordinary electorates. |
| Date: | 13 March 2009 |
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| Title: | 53 : Indian General Elections 2009 – Key Issues That Could Influence Voting Behaviour |
| Author/s: | Paranjoy Guha Thakurta |
| Abstract: | The 15th general elections in India will be held in five phases between 16 April and 13 May 2009; and the results of voting in the world’s largest democracy will be declared on 16 May 2009. Political parties all over the country, both national and regional, are not only drawing up their election manifestoes, but are also firming up campaign strategies and finalising messaging programmes. The larger national political parties are also busy putting together alliances with smaller regional parties in the hope of winning elections in a sufficiently large number of parliamentary constituencies to enable a stable coalition to come to power in New Delhi. However, this may not happen and the likelihood of political instability of the kind seen in India between 1996 and 1999 cannot be ruled out. |
| Date: | 5 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 52 : Sino-Indian Rivalry in the Western Indian Ocean |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | The Chinese President Hu Jintao’s brief stopover in Mauritius in February 2009, as part of his four-nation African tour, does not fit in with the widespread perceptions of Beijing’s resource diplomacy. On the eve of President Hu’s second African tour in barely two years, which included Mali, Senegal, Tanzania and Mauritius, Chinese officials were eager to counter the notion that China’s African diplomacy was all about resources. Pointing out that the four African states on Hu’s itinerary were not known for mineral wealth, Chinese officials insisted that Beijing’s interest in Africa “isn’t confined to energy and resources”. |
| Date: | 5 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 51 : Indian Elections 2009: The Economic Backdrop |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India will hold its 15th general elections in April/May 2009. The elections will take place in challenging circumstances. A variety of cross-cutting political, security, economic and socio-cultural issues will influence the elections. The exercise will be impacted by multiple parties, personalities and positions from IndiaÔÇÖs vast political spectrum. |
| Date: | 5 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 50 : Indian Elections 2009: Why the ‘Y’ Factor Matters |
| Author/s: | Paranjoy Guha Thakurta |
| Abstract: | India will hold its 15th general elections from 16 April to 13 May 2009. The elections will take place in challenging circumstances. A variety of cross-cutting political, security, economic and socio-cultural issues will influence the elections. The exercise will be impacted by multiple parties, personalities and positions from India’s vast political spectrum. |
| Date: | 5 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 49 : The Growing Influence of Business and Media on Indian Foreign Policy |
| Author/s: | Sanjaya Baru |
| Abstract: | Dr Manmohan Singh was perhaps the first Indian Prime Minister to so clearly articulate the rising influence of civil society and business in the making of Indian foreign policy. Turning a 19th Century aphorism on its head, the Prime Minister seemed to suggest that it is no longer trade that 'follows the flag', but 'the flag' that follows trade. |
| Date: | 5 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 48 : Indian General Elections 2009 – National and Regional Political Parties, their Leaders and Strategies |
| Author/s: | Paranjoy Guha Thakurta |
| Abstract: | India will hold its 15th general elections in April/May 2009. The elections will take place in challenging circumstances. A variety of cross-cutting political, security, economic and sociocultural issues will influence the elections. The exercise will be impacted by multiple parties, personalities and positions from India’s vast political spectrum. As India moves into the election mode, the Institute of South Asian Studies will bring out a series of papers analysing different aspects of the forthcoming elections. These will include, among others, the key national and regional parties, and their strategies, key political personalities, and the issues that are likely to have an impact on the elections. This paper, the first in the series, provides an overview of India’s main political parties participating in the elections, along with their strategies and key leaders. |
| Date: | 2 February 2009 |
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| Title: | 47 : The Mumbai Terrorist Attacks: An Assessment of Possible Motives for the Mayhem |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 26 November 2008, a series of terrorist attacks were launched on IndiaÔÇÖs megalopolis and financial capital, Mumbai, by suspected members of the Pakistan-based jihadist organisation, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT). While earlier attacks such as the July 2006 Mumbai commuter train bombings had caused 209 deaths,2 the Mumbai attacks attracted greater worldwide attention. The culprits had not only placed the bombs stealthily; they also carried out their operation in a very public manner. For some 60 hours, the Indian security forces battled with the terrorists. Finally only one, Ajmal Amir Kasab, was captured alive. Indian authorities claimed to have found nine dead bodies of the alleged terrorists. The attackers had apparently come from PakistanÔÇÖs port city of Karachi, taken the sea route and landed at the Mumbai coast in boats. Indian coastal defence and intelligence apparatuses failed completely to detect them.3 Some writers described the Mumbai attacks as IndiaÔÇÖs 9/11 because the culprits had deliberately targeted symbols of Indian affluence and grandeur such as the Taj Mahal and Oberoi Trident hotels and places where westerners gathered such as the Leopold Caf?®. Targeting the Jewish centre at Nariman House was certainly meant to create maximum effect and capture international attention. |
| Date: | 30 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 46 : President Barack Obama, the United States and the Sino-Indian Balance |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | As President Barack Hussein Obama begins to revamp United States (US) foreign policy, the debate in South Asia has focused on one seemingly simple question - Will Obama depart from his predecessor George W. Bush and re-hyphenate US policies towards Islamabad and New Delhi as part of a new strategy towards the sub-continent? A less-debated second question, however, could be far more consequential for the Indo-US relationship and for the future of balance of power in Asia. |
| Date: | 29 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 45 : Win the War and Lose the Peace: Sri Lanka’s ‘War on Terror’ |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | It looks like one of the more winnable conflicts in an age of the global ‘war on terror’. The Sri Lankan government appears to be on the brink of announcing victory in its drawn-out battle against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). The armed separatist group, listed as one of the world’s most dangerous terrorist groups, has fought successive Sri Lankan governments for over a quarter of a century in the guise of liberating the island’s Tamil community from a state that has increasingly marginalised linguistic and religious minorities. However, the question remains as to whether the victory would be pyrrhic when finally manifest, consolidated on irreparable damage to the county’s increasingly fragile democratic institutions and centuries-old multicultural, multi-religious and hybrid social fabric. |
| Date: | 23 January 2009 |
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| Title: | 44 : Indian Bureaucracy – Dismantling the Steel Frame |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This is an apocryphal story, even though I got it from a very senior ex-civil servant – Lord Linlithgow was Governor-General and Viceroy to India from 1936 to 1943 and Chairman of a Royal Commission on Agriculture (1926-28) earlier. In 1973, Tamil Nadu constituted a State Administrative Reforms Commission, which also examined existing government positions in the state. It was discovered then that there were positions known as ‘LBAs’ and ‘LBKs’, though no one precisely knew what these job descriptions meant, since vacancies had not been filled up and earlier incumbents were now drawing pensions. The Royal Commission felt Indian cows were not good enough and cattle strains needed improvement through the import of sturdier bulls and using them to impregnate Indian cows. As was common, this recommendation was not implemented until in 1936 when it was announced Linlithgow would become Viceroy. Someone in the Madras Presidency then woke up, realising the incoming Viceroy would be sure to ask about a key recommendation made by a Commission of which he had been Chairman. Creating government jobs was not easy either. Hence, the Viceroy’s name was invoked in the job title to facilitate creation. ‘LBA’ stood for Linlithgow’s Bull Assistant and ‘LBK’ stood for Linlithgow’s Bull Keeper. ‘LBKs’ imported foreign bulls and maintained them. ‘LBAs’ ensured impregnation occurred on time and ensured that ‘LBKs’ did not commit fraud on the exchequer. These posts were abolished in mid-1970s. Apocryphal or not, this beats the story about the British civil service position finally abolished in 1945. It was created in 1803 and a man was asked to stand on the cliffs of Dover, with a spyglass in his hand, to watch out for Napoleon and ring a bell if he saw signs of an invasion. |
| Date: | 9 January 2009 |
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