| Title: | 194 : Political Challenges in Post-War Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Jehan Perera, Executive Director of the National Peace Council, Sri Lanka |
| Abstract: | The centralisation of political power, and failure to devolve power to the ethnic minorities, accentuated the ethnic conflict in Sri Lanka that led to three decades of internal war. Although the war ended in May 2009, more than three and a half years ago, Sri Lanka has yet to make the transition to ethnic reconciliation and to a political solution. As it has been pointed out by scholars in the field, political stability in pluralistic societies is difficult to maintain without internal power-sharing mechanisms or systems of governance which are responsive to the aspirations of ethnic minorities. The monopoly of political power by representatives of the ethnic Sinhalese majority amounting to over 75 per cent of the country's population was a major contributory factor to the internal war that pitted the government against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). |
| Date: | 20 December 2012 |
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| Title: | 193 : India-China Border Parleys: New ‘Signs’ of Walking the Talk |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The problem-solving mechanism of negotiations between the Special Representatives of India and China over their intractable boundary dispute has stayed course since 2003 when the process was agreed upon. Now, 50 years after the Himalayan war between these two major Asian neighbours, they have reaffirmed commitment to seeking a fair, reasonable, and mutually acceptable settlement of the basic dispute. Right now, there are two simple but significant signals that China and India, increasingly recognised as rising powers on asymmetric trajectories, are beginning to walk the talk. One, the two countries have not allowed a current issue of dissonance to disturb the peace process. Two, they have compiled a report on the progress made in their negotiations so far. |
| Date: | 14 December 2012 |
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| Title: | 192 : FDI in Multi-brand Retail in India: Signs of New Resolve |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In September 2012, the Government of India announced several economic policy reform measures that included a move to allow 51 per cent foreign direct investment (FDI) in multi-brand retail. In the same announcement, it relaxed norms for foreign direct investment in the aviation sector, allowing international airlines to invest in domestic peers and cleared a slew of other reform-oriented measures ÔÇô an increase of FDI in some broadcasting services. |
| Date: | 4 December 2012 |
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| Title: | 191 : Rebalancing-Obama 2.0: India’s Democratic Differential |
| Author/s: | S D Muni, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | US President Barack Obama renewed his dedication to the ‘Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy’ during his successful re-election campaign. The contours of this strategy have started getting into shape with his first post-election foreign visit to the East Asia Summit in Cambodia on 19 November 2012 and his visits to Myanmar and Thailand days earlier. An emerging aspect of this strategy is the deference for democratic partnerships. This deference was visibly and loudly projected during the first-ever US presidential visit to Myanmar where President Obama acknowledged the ongoing democratic reforms there and added that “this remarkable journey has just begun and has much further to go”. This deference for democracy has also been significantly underlined on a relatively quieter but confident note in the declared US “full embrace of the rise of India”. At the Cambodian summit, President Obama, responding to ‘congratulations in person’ from India’s Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said: “India is a big part of my plans”. |
| Date: | 26 November 2012 |
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| Title: | 190 : The World after Great Power Withdrawals |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Will the United States’ pullback from Afghanistan, currently planned to be completed by the end of 2014, deeply affect the world? What would be its impact on the Muslim world, including the Muslim-majority countries of South Asia? These two questions are important for the making of public policy across the world because of the massive changes that are likely to occur once the United States has left the scene. Major large-power pullbacks have in the past led to the birth of new economic and political global orders. There is no reason why the same would not happen again this time. |
| Date: | 16 October 2012 |
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| Title: | 189 : Environmental Challenges in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shafqat Kakakhel |
| Abstract: | The prosperity of the South Asian region, home of the glorious Indus civilisations and cradle of Buddhism, and its ability to be part of the Asian renaissance of the 21st century are predicated on the prudent management of its fragile and excessively exploited ecosystems and on its ability to cope with the multifaceted challenges of climate change. Sound governance in each South Asian country, peace and cooperation with neighbours, and an enabling global context are the essential prerequisites of a sustainable, prosperous future for South Asia. |
| Date: | 16 October 2012 |
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| Title: | 188 : ‘Green on Blue’: Clash of Colours in the Afghan Coalition |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Afghanistan has proved to be the quagmire that has sunk many an invader. Getting in is not always easy, and getting out even more difficult. This is also now the experience of the United States and other foreign forces. The ‘green on blue’ attacks are symptomatic of the existing complexities. The plan to leave behind a large Afghan National Army, also without assured requisite funding upon Western withdrawal in 2014, is not a good one. The chances are, as before, and as has happened in the case of Libya, the Army will dissolve into militias on ethnic and tribal lines, exacerbating intra-mural conflicts. It will be more worthwhile spending the available resources on ‘peace-building’ projects, some of which have already been tested, than on a non-existent sense of central, or Kabul-based, security. |
| Date: | 25 September 2012 |
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| Title: | 187 : The Great ‘Exodus’: Violence in Assam and its Aftermath |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent (and continuing) spate of violence in Assam and the purportedly related scare of retaliatory attacks on those from the northeast, living in different parts of India, have drawn unprecedented media attention towards the region. This may not be the type of attention that the region has yearned for but nonetheless presents an opportunity to put the crucial issues afflicting the region into perspective. The series of events also brings to light some pan-Indian issues that affect a much larger constituency. This paper analyses the background to the violence itself, the ‘exodus’ of northeast-origin citizens back to their home states and what all these mean for India as a whole. |
| Date: | 6 September 2012 |
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| Title: | 186 : Clouded Sunshine Over India’s Economy |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s local-currency bond yields are at 8.21 per cent, an all-time high. Yields rise if there is increase in supply of Government paper, indicating that Government is borrowing more—a sign of fiscal stress. Inflation risks and monetary stance affect yields, with lower inflation indicating higher bond prices and lower yields. In Asia, yields on Indonesian paper used to be very high, but are now around 6 per cent, based on better macro-economic management, a greater openness to the foreign exchange markets and lower inflation. Moody’s now rates Indonesia as investment grade, S&P one notch below. By contrast, ratings for Indian debt have been falling over the last year. |
| Date: | 3 September 2012 |
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| Title: | 185 : Multi-State Groupings Shaping the Global Scene: Case Study of European Union and Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how evolving multi-state groupings such as the European Union are likely to shape international relations of the future. In doing so it analyses relations between one such grouping, the EU, and a state-actor, Bangladesh in South Asia, eventually extrapolating some more-generally applicable conclusions. Europe's relations with South Asia are undergoing a process of renewal. They date back very far, when Alexander the Great in 323BC knocked at the doors of India and established the Bactrian kingdoms in today's Afghanistan and Khyber-Pukhtunkhwa in Pakistan. Two thousand years later the Europeans returned as traders. Their flags followed their trade. Lord Clive's victory at Plassey through a combination of dare and deceit over Nawab Sirajuddowla of Bengal began a period of British imperial rule that ended when India (and Pakistan) made their 'tryst with destiny', in Nehru's words in August 1947. It had left a mixed taste in the mouth. However, connections continued. |
| Date: | 29 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 184 : Peace Held Hostage in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Gloria Spittel, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP) published its annual Global Peace Index (GPI) report in June 2012 which ranked 158 countries on their state of peacefulness. Sri Lanka was the largest mover on the index, ranking 103, up from 130 in the 2011 report. This paper situates this GPI ranking in the current socio-political environment in Sri Lanka, showing that the GPI ranking is not indicative of a sustainable trend and that 'peace' in itself is a problem for certain pockets in Sri Lanka. |
| Date: | 29 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 183 : Is South Asia Condemned to Backwardness? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A blog, “Reflections on India”, written by Sean Paul Kelley, an investment banker-turned travel writer, went viral on the internet. Posted on 7 August 2012, Kelley warned: “If you are Indian or of Indian descent I must preface this post with a clear warning: You are not going to like what I have to say”. Then he went on to write about “filth, squalor and all around pollution” he saw on his most recent travel to the country. Observing this and much more, he went on to suggest that there was “lack of respect for India by Indians”. It is the last observation that is worth some attention since it points to a feature of the South Asian culture which stands in the way of this region’s sustained economic development and social improvement. This paper attempts to shift the development discourse back to the impact of culture on economic growth and modernisation. |
| Date: | 27 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 182 : India-ASEAN Trade Profile |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | There has been a significant growth in bilateral trade between the Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN) and India in the last decade. Between 1993 and 2003, the growth rate of this trade was 11.3 per cent per annum, and this has grown to 21.3 per cent per annum in the last decade (2001-2010). Over this period, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows have amounted to US$ 18.3 billion from ASEAN countries into India. In 2010 alone, the inward flow into India was US$ 3.4 billion. |
| Date: | 14 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 181 : X-Factor in Sino-Indian Detente and Deterrence |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) ISAS |
| Abstract: | The X-factor that makes China view India more seriously now than at any time before is the rising interest in both Washington and New Delhi for reciprocal defence cooperation. There is, of course, no direct evidence, at the official levels, to suggest that the United States and India have already begun to act in concert against China. At the same time, the latest 'classified' recommendations of India's Task Force on National Security, led by Naresh Chandra, have stirred a debate. In this evolving milieu, the recent offer by the US to help India upgrade its military capabilities - in qualitative terms - is, potentially, a new factor in New Delhi's long-cherished calculus of strategic autonomy. India's moves towards the US in this context will be watched closely by the larger international community. |
| Date: | 10 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 180 : India’s Cabinet Reshuffle: Paucity of Talent, Plethora of Challenges |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Just as India was reeling from its worst power outage in recent times affecting some 22 states and millions of people, the country’s Power Minister, Sushil Kumar Shinde, was appointed Home Minister on 31 July 2012. If some saw this as a baffling promotion, the equally significant event the same day was the return of P Chidambaram to the Finance Ministry from Home. Corporate Affairs Minister M Veerappa Moily was given the additional charge of Power. |
| Date: | 10 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 179 : Pakistan-India Detente: A Three-Step Tango |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan-India détente is moving at a reasonable pace, with steps being taken that should bring a bit closer the long-separated economies of South Asia’s two largest countries. The process started once Pakistan had accepted the Indian position that it would be more practical for Islamabad and New Delhi to focus on economic and trade issues, putting on the back-burner some of the more contentious differences such as Kashmir. Now three additional steps have been taken in this dance by the two countries. They are moving from the slow fox trot to the brisk pace of tango. The three steps are the invitation by India to Pakistan to resume cricket matches between the two countries, starting this fall with a visit to India by the Pakistani side. A formal invitation by President Asif Ali Zardari to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to visit Pakistan and attend the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak Dev on November 28 this year. The third decision comes from India that allows individual Pakistanis and Pakistan firms to invest in India. This paper examines what these steps may achieve for the two countries. |
| Date: | 8 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 178 : Afghanistan After America: Possible Post-Drawdown Scenarios |
| Author/s: | Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury is Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS, Mr Shahid Javed Burki is Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Mullah Omar’s face was much unlike that of Helen of Troy. Yet it too was one that caused the launch of a thousand ships – airships to be more precise. Like the besieged city in Homer’s ‘Illiad’, Afghanistan of the present was swarmed by invaders, not by the Greeks, but as some see them, by their modern counterparts – the Americans and their allies. As in the Trojan War, 10 years down the line the War Council met, as it must have also in Mycenae of ancient Greece. This time the venue was Chicago in the United States, home of the modern-day mighty Agamemnon, President Barack Obama. In Chicago, as it had happened in the epic tale, the invaders finally decided to call it a day. They agreed to depart after a decade of unwinnable and unrewarding warring. This time, too, a Trojan horse would be required to be left behind. But a problem had arisen. On that mythical occasion the jubilant but unwary Trojans had dragged the huge wooden horse inside their city walls, not heeding the warnings of that perceptive priest of Poseidon, Laocoon, who had beseeched them, in vain, not to: ‘I fear the Greeks’, he had bemoaned, ‘even though they come bearing gifts’! The Trojan counterparts of today, the Afghans, drawing, not perhaps from the lessons of the ancient Classics but from many practical experiences, had become suspicious of the potential contemporary horse. |
| Date: | 8 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 177 : A Worrisome Blackout in India |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 30 and 31 July 2012, India was hit by a massive power outage that affected three major electricity grids covering the north, east and north-eastern regions. The outage affected over 700 million people. This was arguably the most serious power outage incident in the country in over 50 years. The southern grid, which covers transmission to Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Karnataka and Puducherry (formerly, Pondicherry), escaped the brunt of this blackout, as it is isolated from the north, east, north-eastern and western grids. |
| Date: | 7 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 176 : ASEAN-India Relations |
| Author/s: | Ambassador See Chak Mun is Adjunct Senior Fellow, ISAS |
| Abstract: | ASEAN-India relations intensified when the Narasimha Rao government initiated India's Look East Policy in the early 1990's. Initially the engagement was mainly economic, but the Vajpayee government added a security dimension to it. The 2004 agreement on an ASEAN-India Partnership for Peace, Progress and Shared Prosperity envisaged a multi-faceted co-operation programme, but the implementation of the Action Plan has not been fully satisfactory. For the ASEAN-India relations to be elevated to a higher level such as a strategic partnership, there should be new impetus which should come from (a) shared political and security interests, (b) increase in the economic stakes and inter-dependence, and (c) greater public understanding and awareness of the historical and cultural links between India and ASEAN. |
| Date: | 2 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 175 : Pranab and the Future of Indian Presidency |
| Author/s: | Robin Jeffrey, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In May 1969, the President of India died, and a story began that continues to unfold in New Delhi today. The tale involves the office of the presidency of India, the new occupant of that office, Pranab Mukherjee, and the descendants of Jawaharlal Nehru. It's a story with an unpredictable future and a twisty history. Mr Mukherjee was sworn in as India's 13th President on 25 July 2012, but his career in the Congress Party and his connections with the Nehru family took off in the fateful monsoon months of 1969. |
| Date: | 2 August 2012 |
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| Title: | 174 : Singapore Symposium 2012 Papers-1 Pakistan Should Go Asian |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Given Pakistan's current chaotic situation in both politics and economics, it would be rather presumptuous to suggest that the country could act as the glue for binding different parts of Asia, a large continent which is now on the move. Several analysts have suggested that the 21st century will be the Asian century; that the extraordinary combination of demography, the role of the state, and recent economic history will take Asia forward. The 19th century was the century of Europe and the 20th that of America. This was now the turn of Asia. According to this line of thinking, Asia could, in the not too distant future, overtake both Europe and America in terms of the respective sizes of the economies of these three continents. There is enough dynamism in Asia for several scholars to be comfortable with the thought that such a repositioning of the continental economies is inevitable. However, the pace of change could be quicker and the result more definite if the various Asian countries, large and small, could work together and become a well-connected economic entity with strong inter-country links. Such an outcome could become possible if there is the political will to act on the part of Asia's large countries. In this context Pakistan's role could be critical even when its own economy is very weak at this time. |
| Date: | 27 July 2012 |
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| Title: | 173 : Women’s Quiet Revolution in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | United States Defence Secretary Leon Panetta’s visit to New Delhi and India’s diplomatic activism in June 2012 have given rise to some clear signs of a possible re-balancing of India-US equation in the military and political domains. The paper tracks these signs and draws attention to a fine diplomatic nuance. India and China are still engaged in defence and strategic dialogue while New Delhi and Washington are raising the possibility of military and strategic cooperation. Both India and the US are, nonetheless, seeking to hedge against China – without challenging it – in the present state of flux in global affairs. |
| Date: | 6 July 2012 |
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| Title: | 172 : Re-Balancing of India-US Equation |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | United States Defence Secretary Leon Panetta's visit to New Delhi and India's diplomatic activism in June 2012 have given rise to some clear signs of a possible re-balancing of India-US equation in the military and political domains. The paper tracks these signs and draws attention to a fine diplomatic nuance. India and China are still engaged in defence and strategic dialogue while New Delhi and Washington are raising the possibility of military and strategic cooperation. Both India and the US are, nonetheless, seeking to hedge against China - without challenging it - in the present state of flux in global affairs. |
| Date: | 29 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 171 : Northeast India: Trade and Development Prospects |
| Author/s: | Laldinkima Sailo, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The idea of building roadways, railroads and a multi-modal transport corridor for linking India through its Northeast states to Southeast Asia is significant in many respects. This paper examines the current state of development in Northeast India and its economic prospects should the idea of building connectivity infrastructure of this kind come to fruition and if trade relations with Southeast Asia were to flourish. Discussed, in particular, is the readiness of the region to open up. Also highlighted are some key issues that need to be borne in mind if Northeast India is to witness development and improve standards of living. |
| Date: | 25 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 170 : NATO and Afghanistan: Beginning of an Orderly or a Messy Process of Withdrawal? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The leaderships of the NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) countries were pushed by domestic considerations to lay out a programme for withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan at a more accelerated pace than they had originally envisaged. There were both political and financial reasons for America’s rush to the door. The war was no longer regarded by the citizens as “necessary”. This change in sentiment could not be ignored by the country’s leadership especially when President Barack Obama faced stiff opposition in the run-up to the November 2012 presidential contest. America’s European allies were even less enthusiastic about the war. They were too engrossed in solving their growing economic problems to focus much attention on a difficult and distant land. And the cost of continued engagement was way beyond what America and Europe could afford. President Obama told the press after the conclusion of the NATO summit in Chicago, held on 20-21 May 2012, “We can pull our troops back in a responsible way and we can start rebuilding America and start making some of the massive investments.... in America here at home.”2 But such a neat outcome does not seem to be on the cards even after the NATO summit in Chicago. This paper suggests that the “great pullout” is likely to be a messy affair and not as desired by the United States and its allies. Unlike the Soviet Union, the United States will remain engaged in one way or other in Afghanistan for years to come. Its pullout will not be as complete as was that of the Soviets. |
| Date: | 21 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 169 : India-Myanmar Ties: The Trade Perspective |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent visit by India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Myanmar had as much to do with bilateral trade as with diplomacy and security. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth in Myanmar firmed up to 5.1 per cent in 2009 after a decade of anaemic growth. 2010 was even better, at close to 5.5 per cent. Growth in the neighbouring countries, especially those that import gas, also helped to boost these GDP figures. Nominal GDP has risen from US$ 16.7 billion to an estimated US$ 35.2 billion in 2010. There are also large projects that have been committed by foreign investors in power, petroleum and infrastructure that are likely to contribute to Myanmar's economic growth in the next few years. Natural gas reserves are estimated to be 2.54 trillion cubic metres, and Myanmar is emerging as a major supplier of gas to its neighbours. It has also large deposits of metals, minerals and gems, and accounts for 90 per cent of the global production of rubies. |
| Date: | 13 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 168 : Power Shortages in India’s Southern Region: Challenges for Growth |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Head of Research and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The power industry is one of the largest and most important industries in India as it fulfils the energy requirements of various other industries. India has the world’s fifth largest electricity generation capacity and it is the sixth largest energy consumer accounting for 3.4 per cent of global energy consumption. In India, power is generated by State utilities, Central utilities and private players. |
| Date: | 13 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 167 : How Goliath Slew David at the United Nations: A South Asian Perspective |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Recently five smaller member-states of the United Nations – Singapore, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Jordan, and Liechtenstein – describing themselves as ‘Small Five’ or ‘S5’ sought to have a resolution adopted in the General Assembly. This was a modest effort at restraining the behaviour-pattern of the larger and more powerful Permanent Five or P5 of the Security Council – the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, China, and France – mainly with regard to their unrestricted exercise of veto powers. It failed. This was caused by a calibrated opposition from the major states and others opposed to Security Council reforms, particularly with regard to its expansion. India and Pakistan among South Asian nations played out their traditional rivalry, with India supporting the ‘S5’ initiative and Pakistan opposing it. There were lessons to learn from the story for the South Asian ‘others’ as well. The paper argues that sustained and persevered efforts would be necessary to bring about changes in a system naturally resistant to them, and a setback is not, and must not be seen as, a defeat. |
| Date: | 4 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 166 : Pakistan’s Judicial Renaissance: A New Phase? |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper considers the relationship between the judiciary and government of Pakistan in light of the recent developments involving the Supreme Court and the Prime Minister, which culminated in a historic conviction of the Prime Minister for contempt of court. Pakistan’s judiciary, historically seen as relatively passive in political matters, has witnessed a new phase. A strong judiciary is clearly vital in any democracy, and it will be important for the key institutions and players to find the right balance to ensure the success of Pakistan’s return to democracy. |
| Date: | 1 June 2012 |
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| Title: | 165 : State of Bangladesh Economy: A Prognosis for the Future |
| Author/s: | Ishraq Ahmed, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Against the backdrop of the global economic slowdown, the Bangladesh economy has performed strongly over the past few years. Despite the fallout from the Euro debt crisis still contributing to an uncertain economic environment, the Bangladesh economy has pursued accommodative monetary and fiscal policies. However, if the global economic slowdown is much more prolonged than the current forecasts indicate, the impact on Bangladesh is expected to be adverse. The economy has persevered so far in the face of global recession, but the domestic challenges are manifold with respect to soaring inflation, import-export imbalances, devaluation of the currency, a slow growth of remittances, increasing budget deficit and government borrowing. This paper provides an overview of the Bangladesh economy with respect to its fiscal, monetary and trade performance. The aim is twofold - to assess the current state of the economy, followed by an appraisal of Bangladesh's economic outlook and opportunities ahead. |
| Date: | 23 May 2012 |
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| Title: | 164 : Hillary Clinton Visits India: Understanding the Unstated |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visited India on the third leg of her Asian ‘farewell’ tour after discussions in China and Bangladesh. This short visit to India was important in three aspects. It reemphasized the US resolve to promote its strategic partnership with India in the wider context of Asia-Pacific region. It brought into public domain the persisting differences between India and the US on two critical issues of US priorities in relations with India i.e. isolating Iran and creating a ‘level playing field’ for the American companies in India’s civil nuclear energy field. Thirdly, the visit also underlined the emerging dimensions of the US approach towards India and Asia. In India Mrs. Clinton appeared comfortable in directly broaching the sensitive issues of India’s federal and regional (in relation to immediate neighbours) affairs with the provincial leadership. And in Asia, the US, appearing to have failed in coping with the imperatives of China’s rise and assertion, is trying to hedge through engagement in ‘mini-laterals’; triangular consultations involving other Asian majors and China’s regional competitors like India and Japan. |
| Date: | 15 May 2012 |
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| Title: | 163 : Bhutan: Shades of ‘Shangri-La’ in a Haven of ‘Happiness’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Bhutan conjures up in the mind’s eye idyllic images of a ‘Shangri-La’. In line with this fairy tale perception, it has sought to propagate the concept of Gross National Happiness as a serious index for measuring development. However, there is today a realization in that country that idea-label needs to be matched by performance. Changes are afoot in its politics, economics, and international relations. Cautious reforms on these fronts including modernizing initiatives are rapidly rendering this tiny Kingdom into ‘everywhere else’. So, while ‘Shangri-La’ does not exist in reality, myths continue to remain a driver of human destiny, as the example of Bhutan amply demonstrates. |
| Date: | 3 May 2012 |
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| Title: | 162 : Pakistan’s Political Transition: One More Step Forward |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 26 April 2012, Pakistan took one giant step forward in its long struggle to erect a political structure supported by a legal system in which citizens have full confidence. That will happen when the people’s elected representatives can exercise full authority and when there is respect for the rule of law. On that day, as helicopters hovered over the imposing structure that houses the senior judiciary, the Supreme Court decided to hold Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani guilty for having committed contempt of court. The much anticipated verdict by the court was delivered not by a bench headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry who has shaken up the Pakistani political system on more than one occasion. This time the sentence was read out by Justice Nasirul Mulk, presiding over a bench of seven men. (No woman is a member of the 19-man Supreme Court.) How will this verdict affect the political development of Pakistan? This “Insight” maintains that the decision to hold the prime minister to account – for contempt of the court – has enormous implications for the development of the Pakistani state. |
| Date: | 2 May 2012 |
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| Title: | 161 : Change of Guard at Pakistan’s ISI: Some Implications |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In Pakistan, appointments to senior staff positions in the military often tend to acquire disproportionate political importance. This is also the case with the incoming head of the awe-inspiring Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), Pakistan’s principal spy agency, Lieutenant General Zaheerul Islam. He assumes office in March 2012. In direct contradiction of Clemenceau’s famous dictum, Pakistan is milieu where war is considered too important to be left to the civilians! The matrix that Islam will operate on is in constant flux, nationally and regionally. It will not be his responsibility to formulate state policies but given the prevalent culture of governance in Pakistan, he will certainly be in a position to influence, and even at times to shape, them. His contribution to strategy can be positive and constructive, depending on how dexterously he is able to play his cards in a challenging and scenario. |
| Date: | 16 March 2012 |
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| Title: | 160 : Pakistan’s Baluchistan Problem |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A resolution tabled by Dana Rohrabacher, a Republican Congressman from California and with recent history of work against Pakistan, has suggested that the United States should lend support to the demand by some nationalists from Baluchistan to obtain independence for their province. These nationalists have been fighting the Pakistani state for decades. While the tabling of the resolution will not affect the American policy towards Pakistan, it has focused the attention of many in Pakistan on the country’s Baluchistan problem. The Baluch account for only 2.5 percent of Pakistan’s population of 180 million. However, they live in a sensitive area. Their province has borders with Afghanistan and Iran. A deep water port has been developed at Gwadar on the province’s Mekran coast that may provide access to the sea to China’s landlocked provinces in the country’s west. This paper suggests a number of steps that can be taken to address Baluchi resentment. Some of these have already been taken. These include the devolution of authority to the provinces by amending the constitution and by a near-doubling of the share of the province in the “divisible pool” – the resources mobilised by the federal government for use by the provinces. More needs to be done to bring in the Baluchi population in Pakistan’s expanding political space. |
| Date: | 13 March 2012 |
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| Title: | 159 : State Polls and National Echoes in India |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Congress was the biggest loser in the Uttar Pradesh (UP) elections. Its poor showing has come as a blow to the Congress' prime ministerial aspirant, Rahul Gandhi, who led the election campaign in the state. It also showed up a campaign that did not send out the right message as well as the poor organization of the party at the grassroots. Though the big win of the Samajwadi Party in UP confounded analysts, it won on an anti-incumbency wave where the voters saw it as the only viable alternative to form a stable government. The national implications of the poll result are likely to be more assertive regional parties and policy gridlock. |
| Date: | 12 March 2012 |
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| Title: | 158 : Quran Copy Burning in Afghanistan and the US ‘Exit’ Strategy |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The latest violent protestation in Afghanistan over the burning of copies of the Holy Quran has a demonstrative effect. It has yet again brought to light the nature of the international intervention and the challenges of stabilising this war-torn country. While on the surface the incident appears to be a religiously motivated episode, a growing sense of anxiety and seething anger among a segment of the Afghan populace over other issues is being exploited by the Taliban and its allies in the wake of this incident. More importantly, this episode has raised important questions on the possibility of early international withdrawal and prospects for an effective transition of authority into the Afghan hands. |
| Date: | 5 March 2012 |
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| Title: | 157 : Bangladesh and Paschim Banga: ‘Why this Kolaveri Di?’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Over the past few years Bangladesh and India have been painstakingly developing their bilateral relations. There was indeed a possibility that thereby a model of good neighbourliness could be created worthy of emulation in the rest of South Asia. Suddenly the appearance in the scene of the new Chief Minister of the State of West Bengal in the Indian Union appears to have thrown a spanner in the works. All developments in the area seem to be hostage to her perception of the self-interest of her State, vis-à-vis both New Delhi and Dhaka. As a result, the burgeoning relationship between Bangladesh and India – already characterised by a complex mix of reason and passion and subject to the vicissitudes of domestic politics in both countries – stands threatened. Much hard work and deep innovative thinking by both sides will be needed to successfully overcome the newly created impediments. |
| Date: | 5 March 2012 |
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| Title: | 156 : China and the United States: Will the US visit by Xi Jinping make some difference? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | China and the United States have become ever interdependent since then President Richard M. Nixon’s visit to Beijing 40 years ago. In February 1972, Nixon met with Chairman Mao Zedong and set into motion a relationship that led to their interdependence. But the relationship lacks trust. Starting this fall, Beijing will begin the process of transferring political authority to a new generation of leaders led by Xi Jinping, currently the country’s Vice-President. He will take over as the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China when the party meets for its five-yearly conclave later this year. In March 2013, he will become the country’s president, replacing Hu Jintao in both positions. He will remain in office for ten years, from 2013 to 2023. During this time, Washington will complete the process of shifting its attention from Europe to the Pacific, a change in policy focus that was announced by President Barack Obama on several occasions in 2011. |
| Date: | 28 February 2012 |
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| Title: | 155 : Pakistan and the Not-So-Distant Thunder! |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan, in many ways, is at a crossroads. The essay identifies the key players, and analyses the impact on the national politics of the major domestic and external actors. It seeks to discern the fundamental national spirit and values of the people of that country. It argues that it may well be that the main challenge is now up to the courts, to point to the appropriate path for the nation to take at this juncture. |
| Date: | 10 February 2012 |
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| Title: | 154 : New Dynamic in China-India Dialogue |
| Author/s: | P S Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The new Working Mechanism on border affairs, which India and China have now set up, is designed to ensure that their disputed boundary will be a zone of peace and tranquillity. A follow-up question is whether China and India can muster political will to resolve the basic border dispute itself. For now, the imperative of shared political will remains elusive. While China and India have demonstrated 'Copenhagen Spirit' on a global issue like climate change, the Pakistan factor has not disappeared from their bilateral atmosphere. In these circumstances, there are signs of India exploring neo-nonalignment with reference to China and the United States of America. |
| Date: | 7 February 2012 |
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| Title: | 153 : Uttar Pradesh goes to Polls |
| Author/s: | Ronojoy Sen, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | A seven-phase election will be held in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India's largest state, between February 8 and March 3. The election is important from the national perspective primarily for two reasons. One, it might bring about a change in the federal coalition governing India with one of the two largest parties in UP, the Bahujan Samaj Party or the Samajwadi Party, finding a place in the federal government in return for Congress support in the state. Two, it will be a test of strength for Rahul Gandhi's leadership. UP elections are notoriously difficult to call, but what can be said with some certainty is that no party is likely to get a majority on its own leading to a scramble for post-poll alliances. |
| Date: | 6 February 2012 |
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| Title: | 152 : Panic in Pakistan: The Makings of a Meltdown? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan today is in the throes of a massive political impasse. There is a divisive dichotomy that places the Supreme Court and the Army on one side, and the civil government and the Parliament on the other. But all players have eschewed any unconstitutional cutting of the Gordian knot. This piece argues that the resolution to the apparently intractable conflict probably lies in early elections, consented to by all parties, and examines, briefly, the future prospects in that context, of the rising star in the Pakistani political firmament, Imran Khan. |
| Date: | 15 January 2012 |
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| Title: | 151 : Life at 60 in Japan-India Relationship |
| Author/s: | P. S. Suryanarayana, Editor (Current Affairs) at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The newly maturing bonhomie between India and Japan is patently designed to create a non-military level-playing field in facing a competitive China in the integral geopolitical space of the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This is evident in the spirit of the latest understanding between Japan and India on rare earths and civil nuclear cooperation. This can also be seen as a factor driving the new US-Japan-India trilateral dialogue. |
| Date: | 14 January 2012 |
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