| Title: | 150 : The Durban Climate Platform |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The 17th international climate conference was held in Durban, South Africa in November- December 2011 and was saved from collapse at the last minute. There were two contentious issues. One, whether the treaty being negotiated to replace the one adopted in 1997 at Kyoto, Japan would apply to the developing world as well. The Kyoto Protocol had exempted the developing world from the caps it envisaged on the emission of carbon dioxide. Two, how binding should the treaty be. The main objections to making the new treaty binding came from China and India who were now the first and third largest emitters of carbon dioxide. But this time around smaller developing countries parted company with these two Asian giants and sided with the developed world to ask for an enforceable climate control treaty. The Durban conference concluded with the promise to negotiate a new document by 2015. |
| Date: | 29 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 149 : Imran Khan’s Political Rise |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Imran Khan a former cricketer who, in 1992 won the cricket World Cup for Pakistan2 has emerged in the last couple of months as a political phenomenon in a highly troubled country. He has thrown an open challenge to the governing Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) founded four and a half decades ago by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, another populist leader who created the same kind of excitement as Khan is doing today. The PPP is currently headed by President Asif Ali Zardari, the most unpopular leader in the country’s history. The Pakistan economy has performed poorly under Zardari, the country’s politics is in disarray, the military leadership is at odds with the civilian government, relations with the United States (US) have reached possibly the breaking point. Islamic extremist groups continue to operate in the country and on the border with Afghanistan. As Bill Keller, former editor of The New York Times wrote for his old paper, ‘if you survey informed Americans, you will hear Pakistan described as duplicitous, paranoid, self-pitying and generally infuriating’. Can Khan halt the country’s descent and prevent it from becoming a failed state? Hundreds of thousands of his well-wishers and supporters – mostly young in a very young population – have certainly pinned their hope on the former cricket star. As Khan reminded his admiring audience in Karachi at a massive rally on 25 December that he may not have been the best cricketer in the world, but he won his country the World Cup; he may not have been the most experienced philanthropist, but he built the country’s best cancer hospital; he may not be a educationist but he has built the only private sector university in rural Pakistan. Would he now succeed in this new enterprise – saving Pakistan from disaster—he asked his Karachi audience? The large crowd came back with a roaring ‘yes’. |
| Date: | 27 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 148 : India and China’s 12th Five Year Plans: A Comparison of Changing Priorities |
| Author/s: | Suvi Dogra, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) was released in March 2011. The 12th FYP sets direction for national development for the 2011-15 period aiming to restructure the economy by encouraging domestic consumption. The Planning Commission of India, too, released ‘An Approach to the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017),’ a paper that sets the tone for the 12th FYP paper next year. India’s approach paper calls for ‘faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth’. The two documents set out the key indicators of directions and changes in the development philosophy of governments in both China and India. While there are similarities in objectives, the proposed strategies appear to be quite different. This paper attempts to compare and contrast the similarities and differences in the planning process of the two Asian giants based on the text of the FYPs of both China and India. |
| Date: | 6 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 147 : China-India Strategic Economic Dialogue: Avoiding Unavoidables? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Development & Programmes) and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Bilateral economic ties between China and India have improved rapidly. Both countries are attaching considerable significance to their economic relationship. This is evident from the decision to hold an annual strategic economic dialogue (SED). The first SED was held in Beijing on 26 September 2011. It focused on several areas where the two countries can meaningfully collaborate such as infrastructure development, energy efficiency and water conservation. However, it avoided discussion on barriers to market access that exporters and service providers from the two countries continue to face in each others' domestic markets. The paper argues that future SEDs should discuss possible ways for removing these barriers. Till these restrictions persist, growth in bilateral economic engagement will continue to face restrictions. |
| Date: | 6 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 146 : India and China’s 12th Five Year Plans: A Comparison of Changing Priorities |
| Author/s: | Suvi Dogra, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | China’s 12th Five-Year Plan (FYP) was released in March 2011. The 12th FYP sets direction for national development for the 2011-15 period aiming to restructure the economy by encouraging domestic consumption. The Planning Commission of India, too, released ‘An Approach to the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012-2017),’ a paper that sets the tone for the 12th FYP paper next year. India’s approach paper calls for ‘faster, sustainable and more inclusive growth’. The two documents set out the key indicators of directions and changes in the development philosophy of governments in both China and India. While there are similarities in objectives, the proposed strategies appear to be quite different. This paper attempts to compare and contrast the similarities and differences in the planning process of the two Asian giants based on the text of the FYPs of both China and India. |
| Date: | 6 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 145 : WTO Accommodates RTAs: A Triumph of Pragmatism over Pristine Theory |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The WTO rests on a tripod. Those familiar with the laws of physics will be aware that an object is most stable when it rests on three legs. Is what is true of physics, also valid for trade? Testing it would be a worthwhile intellectual challenge. The first of the triad that holds up this champion of global free-trade, with near-universal membership of 153 with Russia now also on the cusp of joining, is the Multilateral Agreement on the Trade in Goods (including GATT 94 and associated agreements). The second is the General Agreement on Trade in Services, or GATS. The third is the Agreement on the Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights or TRIPS. It is noteworthy that the last two distinguishes it from its predecessor GATT which only dealt with goods. But this has not absolved the WTO from being still seen by many as a „rich man‟s club‟ with concomitant passionate opposition. |
| Date: | 30 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 144 : Obama’s Asia-Pacific Doctrine: India’s options |
| Author/s: | S.D. Muni |
| Abstract: | President Barack Obama‟s address to the Australian parliament followed by his active and energetic participation in East Asia Summit (EAS) and Association of South-east Asian Nations (ASEAN) meetings in Bali on 18-19 November, 2011, gives a clear and bold message that the United States (US) is gearing for an assertive management of the unfolding strategic balance in the Asia-Pacific region. In order to prepare ground for such a message, Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, has been describing the Asia-Pacific region as the new „pivot‟ of US global strategy. Obama‟s address in Australia defines this strategy in detail, almost in the form of a doctrine. It is not yet clear how New Delhi would respond to this new Obama doctrine. Dispelling doubts about the US role in Asia, and defining his new strategic doctrine for the region, Obama said in his Australian address2 : As the world‟s fastest-growing region – and home to more than half the global economy – the Asia-Pacific is critical to achieving my highest priority and that is creating jobs and opportunity for the American people. With most of the world‟s nuclear powers and some half of humanity, Asia will largely define whether the century ahead will be marked by conflict or cooperation, needless suffering or human progress. As President, I have, therefore, made a deliberate and strategic decision – as a Pacific nation, the United States will play a larger and long-term role in shaping this region and its future by upholding core principles and in close partnership with allies and friends |
| Date: | 22 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 143 : India-Pakistan Detente: Its Significance is More Than for Restoring Bilateral Relations |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | On 2 November 2011, Pakistan's cabinet decided to grant India the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status, which it should have done soon after the two countries joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). That was 15 years ago. India gave Pakistan the MFN status; Pakistan held it back until now in the hope that it could leverage the MFN issue to get concessions out of New Delhi on Kashmir. This, of course, did not happen. The grant of MFN to India should begin to normalise economic and trade relations between the two countries. That notwithstanding, this paper suggests that the significance of this move goes much beyond bilateral relations between the two countries. It could - perhaps would - influence Pakistan's tattered relations with the United States (US) and to help bring peace to the South Asian sub-continent. |
| Date: | 11 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 142 : India-Afghanistan Strategic Partnership: Beyond 2014? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The formalisation of the Agreement on Strategic Partnership (ASP) between India and Afghanistan on 4 October 2011 caught instant and worldwide media attention. Coming ahead of the much convoluted US-Afghan strategic partnership, this agreement is seen to be a new twist in the great game. For the Afghans, it is a reaffirmation of the positive role India has played in the reconstruction of their country and future commitment at a time when other countries are talking of downsizing or even complete withdrawal. The partnership agreement, being first of its kind in post-Taliban Afghanistan, is designed to address the challenges of transition as much as prepare ground for preventing the reversal of gains beyond 2014. In highlighting the utility in India's soft power approach, the paper argues that India's decade-long aid-only policy has been successful in consolidating its gains through such institutional processes. However, it would be useful to see if India and Afghanistan could navigate through the difficult contours of regional security environment as they are poised to jointly address the challenges of transition and beyond. |
| Date: | 24 October 2011 |
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| Title: | 141 : The paper is not available |
| Date: | 20 October 2011 |
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| Title: | 140 : The Turbulent South-China Sea Waters: India, Vietnam and China |
| Author/s: | S.D.Muni, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The troubled waters of South-China Sea have started spilling over on India’s relations with its East Asian neighbours. Two recent incidents underline this spill-over. One was on 22 July 2011, when India’s war ship INS Airavat was cautioned by China when it was about 45 nautical miles off the Vietnam coast after paying a friendship visit. The second has been in September 2011, when oil exploration by India’s public sector company Oil and Natural Gas Commission Videsh (OVL) in Vietnam’s territorial waters was taken objection to by China. Both the incidents have been played out with caution by the Chinese and Indian official circles. The INS Airavat incident involved a radio message to the Indian ship that it was in Chinese territorial waters which was claimed later to have not been reported to the respective foreign offices. The Chinese foreign office left the incident by reiterating its claims in the South China Sea but saying that it is looking for information on the incident through ‘competent authorities’.2 The Indian side underlined that there was no confrontation involved, while making it clear that India ‘supports freedom of navigation in international waters including South China Sea…in accordance with the accepted international law…to be respected by all’.3 The issue had actually been triggered by reports in the western media, The Financial Times of London (1 September, 2011). |
| Date: | 11 October 2011 |
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| Title: | 139 : The Crisis in United States-Pakistan Relations: An Alliance Unstuck? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | The United States (US)-Pakistan relations have had a long history of closeness and warmth. For a variety of reasons their traditional understandings now run the risk of becoming unstuck. Each side feels the other is making unreasonable demands. Their alliance must be mended prior to the resolution of the Afghanistan imbroglio. For this to happen, certain initiatives will need to be undertaken. The US is better placed to lead the way. This essay examines the lead-up to the current impasse and makes some recommendations designed to cut the Gordian knot. |
| Date: | 3 October 2011 |
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| Title: | 138 : The Haqqanis as the Pivot in the Deteriorating US-Pakistan Relations |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | As the end game came to be played in so far as America's involvement in Afghanistan was concerned, the country's senior leaders decided to focus a great deal of their attention on the work of the Haqqani network that had strong bases in several Afghan provinces neighbouring Pakistan - in particular the provinces of Khost, Pakti and Paktika - as well as in the North Waziristan Agency of Pakistan. The network was implicated in a number of high profile acts of terrorism in and around Kabul including the attack on the US Embassy in the Afghan capital. Given the dynamics that was unleashed as a consequence of the announcement by President Barack Obama that the pullout from Afghanistan had already started and the American forces will leave to country by the end 2014, positioning and repositioning of the various forces operating in Afghanistan began in serious earnest. In the meantime a large Afghan security force will be trained to look after the interests of the Afghan state and the nation. There was considerable political pressure on Obama to abide by the timetable. The drain caused by the war on the US Treasury had become untenable. This led to the question as to what kind of Afghanistan Washington should leave behind. Ideally this would mean a country at peace with itself and its neighbours. But for this unlikely outcome to be realised, a number of things needed to happen. One of the more important of these is to have the powerful Haqqani network in the country's south and with a sanctuary in Pakistan to align itself with Washington's broad objectives. Would the use of force bring this about or would negotiations among different interest parties produce the desired result? |
| Date: | 3 October 2011 |
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| Title: | 137 : A Working America is Good for Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | America may be declining - in a relative sense, not in an absolute sense - but it still matters how it handles its stumbling economy. All the signs in the middle of September 2011 point towards a slowdown that could result in a double dip recession. Or the economy may just stay in a slump it went in early 2008. It matters for the world, including the countries in South Asia, as to how the American economy performs in the next few months. This Insight examines the current trends in the American economy and how they might influence Asia including South Asia. The main conclusion reached here is that the policymakers in Asia need to be exceptionally vigilant in following the developments taking place in the West. |
| Date: | 27 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 136 : Afghanistan in Transition: Will ‘Bonn II’ be a Game Changer? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | All hopes and attention are yet again riveted on another international conference in Bonn, Germany, later this year. Taking place, almost a decade after the last conference in Bonn, the forthcoming conference (Bonn II)2 is seen as a window of opportunity for the Afghans and the international community to address the past shortcomings and set the parameters for the long term stabilisation of the country beginning with the effective transition (Inteqal) from international to Afghan hands by 2014. |
| Date: | 15 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 135 : South Asia’s Diminishing Prospects |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | According to the latest assessments by two international development banks – the Asian Development Bank and the World Bank – and by the central banks of the three major countries of the South Asian mainland – Bangladesh, India and Pakistan – the region has lost some of the economic momentum built up over the last few years. This is largely the result of political uncertainty in the three countries. This has persisted in Pakistan for three years but some recent political developments in Bangladesh and India have also affected economic decision-making. The three countries, having undertaken with some success the first phase of economic reforms, now have to start focusing on the second phase. This will need consensus building which, in turn, demands the exercise of a considerable amount of political will. |
| Date: | 1 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 134 : China’s ‘Look West’ policy |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS and Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at ISAS |
| Abstract: | China is moving aggressively to bring development and modernisation to Xinjiang, its western most provinces. The Autonomous Region, as the Chinese call it, covers one-sixth of China's landmass but has only one-eightieth of its population. It borders six Central and South Asian countries. More than one-half of its population of 20 million people is made up of the people Beijing refers to as the ‘minorities’. More than 90 per cent of Xinxiang's minorities are Uyghurs. These are Muslims, speak classical Turkish and have become restive. They have several grievances, among them, the perception that their presence in the region is being diluted by the arrival of Han Chinese who now make up 41 per cent of the population. The region was the scene of a major uprising in 2009 staged by a segment of the Uyghur population. Hundreds of people were killed when Beijing used force to bring the rebels under control. This led the Chinese central government to rethink its strategy by focusing on the opening of the Autonomous Region to the countries in its neighbourhood. One part of this initiative was the China-Eurasia Expo held in Urumqi, Xingjian's capital, for five days from 1 to 5 September 2011. It attracted some 50,000 officials from China and 30 other countries. As China looks west to developing and modernising its own territories, as a natural corollary, it also seeks to create a friendly external environment, particularly its Muslim-majority close neighbours like Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh to facilitate the achievement of its domestic agenda. |
| Date: | 1 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 133 : China’s ‘Look West’ policy |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki and Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | China is moving aggressively to bring development and modernisation to Xinjiang, its western most provinces. The Autonomous Region, as the Chinese call it, covers one-sixth of China's landmass but has only one-eightieth of its population. It borders six Central and South Asian countries. More than one-half of its population of 20 million people is made up of the people Beijing refers to as the ‘minorities’. More than 90 per cent of Xinxiang's minorities are Uyghurs. These are Muslims, speak classical Turkish and have become restive. They have several grievances, among them, the perception that their presence in the region is being diluted by the arrival of Han Chinese who now make up 41 per cent of the population. The region was the scene of a major uprising in 2009 staged by a segment of the Uyghur population. Hundreds of people were killed when Beijing used force to bring the rebels under control. This led the Chinese central government to rethink its strategy by focusing on the opening of the Autonomous Region to the countries in its neighbourhood. One part of this initiative was the China-Eurasia Expo held in Urumqi, Xingjian's capital, for five days from 1 to 5 September 2011. It attracted some 50,000 officials from China and 30 other countries. As China looks west to developing and modernising its own territories. |
| Date: | 1 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 132 : Iran, US and the Afghan Conundrum |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The difficult US-Iran relations have further complicated the search for an 'end game' in Afghanistan. The ongoing talks of the yet-to-be-inked US-Afghan Strategic Partnership deal has raised concerns in Iran of a prolonged US military presence beyond 2014. While the US and Iran share a common goal of preventing the return of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the dynamics of the great power relations could impede the process of effective transition and create long-term instability in the war-torn country. |
| Date: | 1 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 131 : Suicides in India: The Economics at Work |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS, Pratima Singh, Research Associate at ISAS |
| Abstract: | Suicides in India have been rising steadily over the last couple of decades. The number of suicides committed on economic grounds has more than doubled between 1991 and 2009. This paper studies the pattern of suicides in 10 states reporting highest suicides for the year 2009 and analyses the economic factors behind these suicides. The paper finds that bankruptcy or sharp changes in economic status, along with poverty, are major factors driving suicides in India's relatively prosperous states, while property disputes, career problems and unemployment are doing so in the relatively poorer states. The paper argues that economic prosperity in India has not necessarily resulted in economic security. Suicides on economic grounds might increase unless India is able to develop effective social security mechanisms for tackling economic hardships. |
| Date: | 25 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 130 : DMIC: Addressing India’s Infrastructure Woes? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Development & Programmes) and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS, Suvi Dogra, Research Associate at ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s largest integrated infrastructure project -- the Delhi Mumbai Industrial Corridor (DMIC) – is currently under implementation. The DMIC is expected to significantly enhance connectivity among the states it covers. It is the latest example of Indo-Japan collaboration in infrastructure development in India. This paper discusses the main features of the project and argues that while the economic benefits from the DMIC are enormous, care should be taken to ensure that its progress does not get affected by problems of land acquisition, multiple agency co-ordination and slow project implementation. |
| Date: | 22 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 129 : United States- Economic Problems and Their Ripple Effects |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the agreement reached on 2 August 2011 between President Barack Obama and the United States (US) Congress on increasing the debt ceiling and discusses its likely ripple effects on the global economy. While South Asia is not well integrated into the global economy to feel the impact of developments a long distance from its borders, it too will be affected. The ripples will reach its shores. |
| Date: | 10 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 128 : Pakistan’s Deteriorating Economic Situation: How Much of it is Caused by Politics? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Pakistan’s economy is in a state of deep crisis, the worst in its troubled history. While some natural disasters – an earthquake in 2005 and floods in 2010 – contributed to the poor performance of the economy, much of it was the result of weak management by the civilian government that took office in the spring of 2008. The cumulative loss to the economy during the five-year tenure of the current administration may be as high as 16 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP). On a number of previous occasions the military intervened when the government in place was deemed to be performing poorly in the economic field. Such an outcome seems unlikely this time around as the military has become conscious of the latent power of the street. This has been demonstrated by the Arab Spring. The country’s youth and the civil society do not want to see the army intervene in politics once again. That said, the current government, as it prepares for the general elections that must be held before the spring of 2013, has adopted a populist approach towards economic management. This includes the recent decision by the central bank to ease the supply of money. This may win votes but may further aggravate the already weak economic situation. |
| Date: | 10 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 127 : India in Africa: Summits and Beyond |
| Author/s: | Suvi Dogra, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s six-day tour of Africa (23 through 28 May 2011) demonstrated India’s desire to forge closer ties with the continent and be an active participant in its growth and developmental process. A number of agreements were signed during the second India-Africa Forum Summit (24 and 25 May 2011) and bilateral meetings with Ethiopia (25 and 26 May 2011) and Tanzania (26 through 28 May 2011) ranging from trade and education to development assistance. The renewed vigour of India’s engagement comes in a landscape of a deepened Chinese presence in Africa. This paper analyses the achievements of the Summit and Prime Minister’s bilateral visits to Africa. The paper also explores India’s development cooperation with the continent in this background. |
| Date: | 1 July 2011 |
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| Title: | 126: The Great American Debate: Is the Drawdown of Forces in Afghanistan a Realistic Option? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza |
| Abstract: | As Afghanistan prepares for transition, United States (US) civilian and military leaders are fiercely debating over the scale and pace of a drawdown in US forces. Given that the Taliban insurgency is demonstrating its potent strike capabilities even in the relatively stable north and west of Afghanistan and talks of a negotiated settlement are gathering momentum, the US military is keen to pursue the current counter-insurgency strategy in order to negotiate from a position of strength. However, the civilian camp in the administration is unwilling to concede to an extended war and is citing rising costs and new geopolitical priorities to bring the US troops home. As the debate between the two camps intensifies, it is bound to impact the course of transition to the Afghan forces over the next three years |
| Date: | 23 June 2011 |
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| Title: | 125 : China-Pakistan Relations: Evolution of an ‘All-Weather Friendship’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the evolution of what is now viewed as an ‘all-weather relationship’, the bilateral linkages between China and Pakistan. It seeks to demonstrate the nature of this partnership that has withstood the test of time and what is the impact on it of certain recent international developments like the death of Osama bin Laden, and the resultant strains between the United States (US) and Pakistan. It argues that these events have raised the implications of Sino-Pakistan relationship from a regional to a global level, with the likelihood that the matrix on which it will be played out will now be wider. Introduction |
| Date: | 14 June 2011 |
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| Title: | 124 : Power-Play of Peers in the Pacific: A ‘Chimerican’ Chess Game? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Of late there has been much talk of a new AirSea Battle Concept (ASBC), a synergising calibration of the two services enhancing punch and effectiveness on the part of the United States (US), to strategically engage adversaries in conflict situations. There was mention of this by the US Secretary of Defense at the recent Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Though direct reference to China was eschewed, there was no doubt as to whom it was directed towards. The Chinese response for now was in words, but this article argues that it will come in kind, over time. The result could be a power-play in the naval arena of the Pacific between the two peers, the US and China, that could have the effect of destabilising a delicate equilibrium. In order for that not to happen, all actors involved would need to be circumspect and take special care. The room for unintended consequences will be large. Signals given and received, and perceptions in this connection, will be key in shaping behaviour. |
| Date: | 10 June 2011 |
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| Title: | 123 : Anguish in Abbottabad, Pains of Pakistan and American Anger |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The incidents in May 2011, surrounding the death of Osama bin Laden in the quiet Pakistani frontier town of Abbottabad, have shaken the world. The resultant dust has yet to fully settle. The episode has brought anguish to that district, exacerbated the pains of Pakistan and caused much anger in Washington. This paper suggests that the anguish be addressed, pains controlled and anger managed, for greater regional and global peace and stability. It explores whether, as in an unfolding Greek drama, other actors (or factors) can possibly appear on stage to alter the directions of the events of the play. It briefly analyses the many ramifications of the episode for relationships between Pakistan, the United States (US), Afghanistan and India. It underscores the lesson in all this to avoid creating 'Frankensteins' to address momentary problems, monstrous creations which may not be able to be controlled and which may make situations go horribly awry. |
| Date: | 20 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 122 : India, Libya and the Principle of Non-Intervention |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Senior Fellow at the Centre for Policy Research in New Delhi, Contributing Editor for The Indian Express |
| Abstract: | Delhi’s decision to abstain on the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution 1973, authorising the use of force in the Libyan civil war was not about expressing India’s non-aligned or non-Western identity. Delhi’s own mixed record on international interventions suggests there was no question of high principle involved in its UNSC vote on Libya. Delhi’s response can be explained in terms of India’s strategic culture that is very risk-averse and rather prudent when it comes to the use of force. It has also been shaped in part by a long-standing domestic political tradition of expressing wariness towards Western intervention in the Middle East. India’s policy on Libya appears to be driven by a cold calculus of national interest and a healthy scepticism about the use of force by third parties towards an internal conflict. |
| Date: | 13 April 2011 |
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| Title: | 121 : Political Economy of CSR: The Companies Bill Debate in India |
| Author/s: | Suvi Dogra, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The concept of 'Corporate Social Responsibility' (CSR) is not new to the Indian corporate world. The recent proposal by India's Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) to make philanthropy compulsory by law under the Companies Bill 2009, however, gave rise to a raging debate in the country. Many questions were raised including whether a rule-based approach to philanthropy is needed and whether making CSR spend mandatory by law would yield the desired outcomes? However, before one answers these questions, it is important to reflect on one fundamental aspect under the CSR debate. If socially responsible behaviour has become key to corporate agendas, then why have only some firms behaved in a socially responsible manner while others have not? This paper examines the factors that govern such behaviour on the part of firms and traces its relevance to the current CSR debate in India. |
| Date: | 6 April 2011 |
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| Title: | 120 : Foundations of Bangladesh’s Foreign Policy Interactions |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The two major foreign policy aspirations of Bangladesh are security and preservation of sovereignty, and the quest for resources for development. Both these objectives combined with the fact that Bangladesh being nearly geographically ‘India-locked’ suggests its method of external behaviour. That is, in Bangladesh’s interest to enmesh herself among a web of extra-regional linkages, that would heighten global stakes within, and also reduce the power-gap with pre-eminent regional protagonists. This high level of international interactions is based on twelve pillars that this essay identifies. It analyses the contribution to behaviour, which has ‘West-leaning’ predilections, by the values espoused by her vibrant civil society and her burgeoning and powerful middle class. The penchant for ‘multilateralism’ is met with caution and circumspection in global politics, implying avoidance of ‘flashy’ policies, together with the adoption, generally, of a ‘low-profile’ on ‘high-risk’ issues, and ‘high-profile’ on ‘low-risk’ issues. |
| Date: | 23 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 119 : India’s Pakistan Talks: Engagement without Expectation? |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Strategic Affairs Editor of The Indian Express, New Delhi |
| Abstract: | Delhi’s recent decision to renew the dialogue with Islamabad, despite the lack of progress on the question of cross border terrorism, underlines the unenviable situation that India finds itself in. Few in India, expect that the resumption of the engagement, will produce substantive results in the near term. India’s ‘on-again, off-again’ peace process with Pakistan, for more than the last decade, has shown that Delhi is not in a position to either coerce Pakistan into giving up its support to ‘anti-India’ militant groups or entice Islamabad into normalising relations, by offering an early resolution of the conflict over Jammu and Kashmir. With limited leverage and problems in dealing with multiple power centres across the border, Delhi has no option but to demonstrate strategic patience in managing its complex relationship with Islamabad, while India awaits structural changes in Pakistan. |
| Date: | 28 February 2011 |
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| Title: | 118 : Is Bangladesh Economy on the Wrong Foot? |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The Bangladesh economy that expanded during the great recession of 2008-09, seems to be losing its momentum, which is reflected in the turmoil in its stock markets, rising inflation and mounting supply side constraints with regard to energy and infrastructure, among other factors. While the ‘search for yield’ phenomenon owing to real negative interest rate led the irrational exuberance, notably in the stock market, there is a regulatory failure in the economy. Moreover, the actions of the Awami League government’s economic policymakers have been less than adequate in recognising the economy’s existing and implied demand owing to changes in demographic settings, inter alia. The paper discusses these issues at some length and suggests that the government should prioritise the economic agendas rather than the political ones in order to minimise the gap between potential and actual economic output. |
| Date: | 16 February 2011 |
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| Title: | 117 : Themes from India’s Big Power Diplomacy |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan, Strategic Affairs Editor of The Indian Express, New Delhi |
| Abstract: | India's intensive engagement with the major powers of the international system, in the second half of 2010, has underlined Delhi's improved international standing. Thanks to the growing worldwide perception of its rise, India is now in a position to leverage its economic growth for the pursuit of ambitious political objectives and national security goals. At the same time, India is also under pressure to adapt to the dynamic evolution of relations among the great powers and take new responsibilities in the multilateral domain. |
| Date: | 26 January 2011 |
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