| Title: | 116 : A Curse from God? The Consequences of the Floods on Jihadist Influence in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Didier Chaudet, French specialist of Central and South Asia |
| Abstract: | The recent floods in Pakistan have been one of the most terrible natural disasters the country has had to deal with since the Partition. It happened at a time of strong local tensions between radical Islamist groups, in particular, of course, the 'Pakistani Taliban', and the central government. This paper examines the implications of the floods for jihadist influence in Pakistan. |
| Date: | 13 December 2010 |
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| Title: | 115 : Explaining Realignment |
| Author/s: | Sumit Ganguly, Rabindranath Tagore Chair in Indian Cultures and Civilizations at the Indiana University, Bloomington |
| Abstract: | This paper explains how India's policymakers reacted to structural shifts in the global order at the Cold War's end and sought to realign India's foreign policy interests and priorities. It analyses these changes through the use of the level of analysis approach to the study of international politics. |
| Date: | 19 November 2010 |
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| Title: | 114 : Disorder in the Global Economic Order |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The consensus that developed among the governments of all major economies in 2008-09 at the time of the economic depression has dissipated leading to tensions among several of them. These are centered mostly on the issue of the value of their currencies. The replacement of consensus at the series of Group of Twenty (G20) meetings in 2009 with discord at the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in early October 2010 has produced considerable uncertainty in the markets. The dispute over currency valuation has been exacerbated by political wrangling in the United States (US) leading up to the mid-term elections in November 2010. There is expectation that the G20 summit scheduled to be held in Seoul, South Korea may produce more concrete results than the earlier Washington meeting. At Seoul, some concerns of South Asia - in particular the voice it has in multilateral institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank - may also get addressed. |
| Date: | 21 October 2010 |
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| Title: | 113 : Bangladeshi Courts |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh, a predominantly Muslim country of 160 million people was born in 1971. Immediately after independence, it was confronted with a host of developmental and political challenges. Over time it managed to respond to the development issues with a modicum of success. Initially this was done by an effective utilisation of external support as well as domestic resource mobilisation, and then through home-grown concepts like microcredit and non-formal education, which helped in alleviating poverty, mainstream gender and marginalise extremist thoughts and action. The political problems were more daunting. The principles of 'democracy' and 'secularism', among others, were soon eroded by military interventions, with such actions given legislative sanction through the Fifth (1979) and Seventh (1986) amendments to the constitution. Recently the higher judicial courts delivered two historic judgements nullifying the amendments and setting the country again on the path of democracy and secularism. This paper discusses the judgements and Bangladesh's efforts to maintain religious harmony with democratic and secular values. |
| Date: | 19 October 2010 |
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| Title: | 112 : Inflation, Growth and the 3D: South Asian Perspectives |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam, Research Associate at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | While inflation and economic growth, the two fundamental issues of macroeconomics, are often addressed from fiscal and monetary policy perspectives, this paper argues that there is a limitation to the extent they can contain headline inflation and remove barriers to growth. In this connection, the paper suggests that such issues also need to be viewed through a 3D (density, distance and divisions) prism. If addressed properly in the light of the 3D, individual countries of South Asia as well as the region can solve many fundamental problems concerning inflation and growth. |
| Date: | 15 September 2010 |
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| Title: | 111 : A New Priority in India’s Look East Policy: Evolving Bilateral Relations with Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | Dr Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | India is a country and nation on the rise. The process would be facilitated by a supportive regional environment. While with Pakistan relations continue to be challenged, with Bangladesh they appear on the mend. Bangladesh has for a variety of reasons proved to be the calmest country in the region and is also emerging as a responsible international actor. However, if this relationship is to evolve satisfactorily, India will be required to assume a disproportionately greater and non-reciprocal responsibility. The Indian leadership has already intellectually accepted this role and the article recommends some mutual steps towards advancing it. This relationship is also in consonance with India's Look East policy, in which Bangladesh appears to have become a new priority |
| Date: | 31 August 2010 |
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| Title: | 110 : Mining in India: Separating Growth from Development? |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Head (Development and Programmes) and Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Concerns over illegal mining in India have revived following the report of a committee appointed by the Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) of the Government of India on mining operations in Orissa. The report has mentioned violation of multiple forest and environment laws in securing forest land for mining. Highlighting complicity between private industry and local administration, the report has urged the MoEF not to allow the transfer of forest land for mining. Following the report, the MoEF has rejected the proposal to transfer land for mining. The paper examines the issues raised in the report and argues that growth of mining and protection of rights of local communities are conflicting objectives. India is yet to evolve a socio-economic mechanism, where these objectives can be simultaneously accommodated. |
| Date: | 26 August 2010 |
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| Title: | 109 : The RBI Discussion Paper on Entry of New Banks in the Private Sector: A Comment |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) does not have an articulated policy for the expansion of private sector banking in India. There have been two guidelines, issued in 1993 and 2001, under which the RBI granted some licenses for private sector banking. For the first time now, the RBI has put out a discussion paper on a new strategy - of permitting corporate houses to enter the banking industry in India. As an effort to bring transparency to policy making in this important sphere, it is a very welcome move. However, there are some concerns and this paper highlights some of the issues posed by the discussion paper. |
| Date: | 17 August 2010 |
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| Title: | 108 : Recovery, Double-dip or Depression |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Dark clouds have appeared on the horizon, just as confidence had increased among consumers and investors that the worst was over for the global economy. The clouds have gathered mostly for political reasons. The Europeans ÔÇô the Germans in particular ÔÇô have concluded that they cannot take the risk to persist with expansionary policies. They were discouraged to stay on course by their own history as well as by the nasty jolts delivered by the Mediterranean economies. It took some extraordinary jaw-boning by the United States President Barack Obama to convince German Chancellor Angela Merkel to come to the assistance of the almost bankrupt Greece. The American president saw his own set of problems emerge when a highly vocal and noisy part of his electorate began to question the wisdom of his approach to build a mountain of debt to revive an economy that has been stubbornly resisting recovery. These setbacks have made it difficult for the worldÔÇÖs large economies to work together within one economic framework. At the G-20 meeting in Toronto, leaders failed to agree on a common path on which they will be prepared to travel. Asia is the only silver-lining on the horizon. This raises the question whether it has the weight and political will to guide the rest of the world. |
| Date: | 5 August 2010 |
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| Title: | 107 : President Zardari in China: Cementing Old Ties |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | President Asif Ali Zardari's recent visit to China represents a continuation of the relationship between Pakistan and China that was started by Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, his father-in-law. Zardari, however, has been pursuing China more aggressively than both Zulfikar Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto. He has focused much more on economics and has now taken the initiative to factor in Afghanistan in what might become a trilateral relationship. |
| Date: | 16 July 2010 |
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| Title: | 106 : The 2010 Commonwealth Games: India’s Triumph or Disaster |
| Author/s: | Syeda Sana Rahman |
| Abstract: | India’s successful bid to host the 19th Commonwealth Games in October 2010 seems like the South Asian giant’s chance to showcase its growth and progress. Additionally, coming on the heels of China’s triumph with the Beijing Olympics in 2008, anything less than a successful event would be an embarrassment for India. However, preparations for the Commonwealth Games appear to have been blighted by delays and allegations of corruption and inefficiency. Thus, what was supposed to signify India’s arrival on the world stage now appears to typify the problems of governance in India, in terms of both policy-making and implementation. |
| Date: | 9 July 2010 |
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| Title: | 105 : The Afghan Peace Jirga: Is an end in sight? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet DÔÇÖSouza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recently held peace jirga in Kabul have once again raised hopes among the Afghans and international community of finding peace through 'other means'. The continuing military stalemate and talks of exit have emboldened the Taliban who perceive the tide to be in their favour. In such a scenario, are the peace gestures by the Afghan government a way forward? Will such peace initiatives lead to durable peace in Afghanistan? Will the recently concluded peace jirga provide a consensual framework of negotiations for the Afghans and international community? |
| Date: | 5 July 2010 |
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| Title: | 104 : Maoism in Bangladesh: Past, Present and Future |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | More than Maoism: Rural Dislocation in South Asia' is an ISAS research theme focusing on socio-economic, political and security dimensions of "Maoist movements" in South Asia. The institute conducted a closed-door workshop on the research theme and the presentations are being put together as a series of ISAS Insights and ISAS Working Papers. This is the fifth paper in this series. |
| Date: | 25 June 2010 |
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| Title: | 103 : The Maoist Movement in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Dayan Jayatilleka, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | More than Maoism: Rural Dislocation in South Asia' is an ISAS research theme focusing on socioeconomic, political and security dimensions of 'Maoist movements' in South Asia. The institute conducted a closed-door workshop on the research theme and the presentations are being put together as a series of ISAS Insights and ISAS Working Papers. This is the fourth paper in this series. |
| Date: | 2 June 2010 |
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| Title: | 102 : The Rise and Fall of the Maoist Movement in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | During the late 1960s and early 1970s, Maoist ideas gained considerable popularity and influence in left politics and the labour movement, and made an impact on Pakistani mainstream politics, which was out of proportion to its political strength in the overall balance of power. Neither class structure nor the ideological and political composition of the state apparatus warranted any such advantage to Maoism. Clues to it are to be found in the peculiar power game over security and influence going on at that time between several states in that region and, perhaps, more crucially in the internal political situation surrounding the rise to power of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto (1971-77). His fall from power, the coming into power of an Islamist regime under General Muhammad Ziaul- Haq (1977-88), and the Afghan jihad spelled disaster for leftist politics. In the 1980s, Maoism faded into oblivion. |
| Date: | 26 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 101 : Media and Maoism |
| Author/s: | Professor Robin Jeffrey, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | More than Maoism: Rural Dislocation in South Asia' is an ISAS research theme focusing on socioeconomic, political and security dimensions of "Maoist movements" in South Asia. The institute conducted a closed-door workshop on the research theme, and the presentations are being put together as a series of ISAS Insights and ISAS Working Papers. This is the second paper in this series. |
| Date: | 19 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 100 : Socio-Economic Roots of Maoism post-1980 |
| Author/s: | Dr S. Narayan, Head of Research and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | More than Maoism: Rural Dislocation in South Asia' is an ISAS research theme focusing on socioeconomic, political and security dimensions of 'Maoist movements' in South Asia. The institute conducted a closed-door workshop on the research theme, and the presentations are being put together as a series of ISAS Insights and ISAS Working Papers. This is the first paper in this series. |
| Date: | 12 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 99 : Management of Fiscal Stress: Are Greece’s Solutions Relevant for India? |
| Author/s: | Sasidaran Gopalan and S. Narayan |
| Abstract: | The financial crisis in Greece and the measures to tackle it have led to a considerable debate on how fiscal deficits should be managed by countries facing fiscal stress. While the immediate causes for worry are Greece's ballooning budget deficit and the risk that other fragile countries like Spain and Portugal might default, the turmoil has also exposed deeper fears that government borrowing in bigger nations could be unsustainable. To some degree, these concerns are relevant for countries like India and those staring at similar numbers. In this context, this piece explores the relevance of the proposed Greece's solutions for India in managing its fiscal stress. |
| Date: | 11 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 98 : Karzai’s Balancing Act: Bringing ‘China’ In? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | China’s interests in Afghanistan are perceived to be mainly economic. It is unlikely that the March 2010 Sino-Afghan joint declaration, following President Hamid Karzai’s visit to China, will bring about a dramatic change in the present Chinese policy of abstaining from military engagement in the conflict-ridden country. However, as the scenario of United States (US) withdrawal from Afghanistan looms large, China will have to prepare itself for a much larger and crucial role for long-term stabilisation and reconstruction of the war-ravaged country given that its interests would be at stake. Its friendly ties with Pakistan would continue to be a great leverage when it decides to pursue such a policy. |
| Date: | 7 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 97 : G.P. Koirala: Nepal’s Democracy Icon |
| Author/s: | S.D. Muni, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The paper recalls the life and achievements of G.P. Koirala, the first Prime Minister of Nepal's elected Parliament in 1991, and subsequent Prime Minister on five more occasions. Highlighting the vacuum created by G.P. Koirala's death and his absence from Nepali politics, the paper explores the possible ramifications and the political outlook for Nepal. |
| Date: | 8 April 2010 |
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| Title: | 96 : India’s ‘Look East’ Policy: Reflecting the Future |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit, Visiting Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | India’s ‘Look East’ Policy is aimed to integrate it more closely with its Eastern neighbourhood in the post-Cold War globalising world order. After almost two decades, it is important to reflect on the scope of the policy and shape that it should assume in the days to come. This paper argues that while economic benefits from the policy have been substantive and visible, it is essential for India to decide whether it wishes to play a more strategically proactive role in Asia-Pacific in future. In this regard India must realise that in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, the rise of the East is accompanied by a strategic marginalisation of the West. |
| Date: | 5 April 2010 |
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| Title: | 95 : China and India: Is Policymaking by the Two Asian Giants Merging? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | New Delhi and Beijing announced their economic plans for the future within a few days of each other. On 26 February 2010, the Indian Finance Minister presented his government's budget for the fiscal year 2010-11. On 6 March 2010, the Chinese Prime Minister's address to the annual National People's Congress included the budget for the year 2010. This paper suggests that while there are many similarities between the approaches followed by the two governments as indicated in their respective statements, there are also several subtle differences. These include the explicit attention paid to taking care of the poor and reducing income disparities in the case of the Chinese approach. In the Indian approach, there is much greater focus on returning to higher rates of growth. In presenting the budget, the Indian leader had his eye on the foreign investor while in presenting his government's economic plan, the Chinese leader was more deliberately addressing his domestic audience. That said, both governments are setting the stages in their two countries for returning to the high growth trajectory. But adjustments need to be made for correcting some of the distortions that had crept in the previous growth spurts. |
| Date: | 19 March 2010 |
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| Title: | 94 : ‘Seeing it Comin’: The Post-Parliamentary Scenario in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Dayan Jayatilleka, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | In the span of less than a year, Sri Lanka will have transited three decisive turning points: the conclusion of armed conflict in May 2009, the Presidential Election of late January 2010 and the Parliamentary election scheduled for this April. While the ruling coalition strives for a two thirds majority in the legislature, which would permit the replacement of the Constitution, this paper argues that the main result of the upcoming election is already prefigured and portends a new cycle of conflict along the lines of identity politics. The paper concludes that the dominant ideologies on the Sinhala and Tamil sides prevent Sri Lanka’s adoption of the recognised contemporary Asian mechanisms of the management of diversity, thus preventing the country from fully integrating into and benefiting from the economic rise of Asia. |
| Date: | 16 March 2010 |
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| Title: | 93 : An Analysis of India’s Thirteenth Finance Commission Report |
| Author/s: | S. Narayan, Head of Research and a Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The paper looks at the trends of fiscal consolidation in India following the introduction of the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act of 2003. It examines the deviations from the FRBM targets since 2007 and analyses the recommendations of the Thirteenth Finance Commission in the light of the evolving pressures on India’s public finances. The paper argues that apart from laying out the roadmap for devolution of resources from the Centre to the States, the Commission’s key contribution has been on emphasising restoration of fiscal discipline by reducing deficits, more transparent use of public debt and greater accountability in managing public finances. |
| Date: | 10 March 2010 |
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| Title: | 92 : India and Pakistan: Breaking the Ice |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury, Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The recent Foreign Secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan have failed to break the ice with regard to any of the major issues between New Delhi and Islamabad. Yet, for a variety of critical reasons, it is essential to regional peace and stability that the two nuclear-armed South Asian states bridge their main differences. In order to be able to do so, new and 'out-of-the-box' thinking is necessary on both the process and substance of their bilateral deliberations. The article, based on the author's own experience of diplomatic negotiations among South Asian nations both at official and political levels, seeks to suggest a way out of the impasse in order to be able to move forward, discarding conflict for cooperation. |
| Date: | 4 March 2010 |
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| Title: | 91 : South Asian Developments: Moving Towards a D?®tente or Sowing the Seeds of Discord? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki, Visiting Senior Research Fellow at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | The assessment of some of the recent developments in South Asia is based on a number of conversations the author had in Pakistan during a two-week stay in Lahore and Islamabad in early February 2010. He met with a number of Pakistani politicians, senior officials - civilian and military, serving and retired - most of whom offered their views on the condition that they should not be directly quoted given the sensitive nature of the issues discussed during the conversations. The author also met with some senior diplomats, including those from the United States (US). He had discussions with some officials from the United Nations who were managing programmes in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. |
| Date: | 24 February 2010 |
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| Title: | 90 : Re-organising Indian States: What is going on in Telengana? |
| Author/s: | John Harriss |
| Abstract: | The idea that the Telengana region of the state of Andhra Pradesh, which was historically part of the princely state of Hyderabad, should be constituted as a separate state, has a long history. The announcement on 9 December 2009 by the Home Minister of India that 'the process of forming the state of Telengana would be initiated' has, however, provoked uproar across the state. Whereas, before the 2009 elections all the major parties of Andhra supported the formation of Telengana, all are now divided on the question, and agitation continues. This paper explores the background to the dispute, the reasons why many of the people of the region seek separation, and its implications for thinking about the territorial reorganisation of Indian states. The paper argues that creating smaller states may not be the best way of tackling growing problems of regional inequality across India. |
| Date: | 29 January 2010 |
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| Title: | 89 : India-Pakistan Relations Post-Mumbai Terrorist Attacks |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed, Visiting Research Professor at the ISAS |
| Abstract: | Relations between India and Pakistan have been proverbially bad ever since both countries attained independence in mid-August 1947. Disputes over territory, division of common assets of the colonial state, forced transfer of minorities in some border provinces and other related issues constitute a case of clashing nationalisms. Three wars - in 1948, 1965 and 1971 - and a dangerous showdown in the hills of Kargil in Kashmir in May 1999 that nearly drove both sides to a nuclear confrontation are indicative of the explosive nature of the rivalry between these two major South Asian states. |
| Date: | 7 January 2010 |
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