ISAS Insights

Five Indian states have their elections between 12 November and 7 December 2018. The results for all the states will be declared on 11 December 2018. The poll-bound states are Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in north and central India, Telangana in south India and Mizoram in the northeast. The elections in the three states of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan are particularly important since, in the 2014 general elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had won 61 out of the combined 65 parliamentary seats in these states. All three states will also largely see a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress. Hence, the results are likely to provide indicators for the results in the 2019 general elections. Opinion polls predict that the BJP will be voted out in Rajasthan while the contests in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are likely to be close, with the BJP having a slight edge. The election in Telangana could also prove to be tight with the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi being challenged by an alliance of the Congress and the Telugu Desam Party. In Mizoram, the only northeastern state governed by the Congress, the regional Mizo National Front could be voted to power.