| Title: | 280 : Transitioning Towards a Sustainable Energy Future: Challenges and Opportunities for India |
| Author/s: | Vikram Singh Mehta |
| Abstract: | India sits at the nub of the crisis of the current high carbon model of development. It is not responsible for this crisis and it can legitimately argue that it must not bear the costs of adapting and mitigating its consequences. However, it cannot escape the reality that it is amongst the most vulnerable nations to global warming. This paper identifies five factors that define the reality of India's energy sector and argues that these factors should be regarded as predetermined trends that will influence the shape of India's future energy profile, at least for the foreseeable future, irrespective of the specifics of policy. It underlines that the Indian government recognises the severity of the problem and has embarked on an ambitious programme to tackle the crisis on its own. However, it requires better alignment of the political, institutional and financial framework for implementation in a given time-frame. Further, the paper lays out five propositions that are necessary first steps towards a low carbon future. |
| Date: | 27 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 279 : Asia’s New Geopolitics |
| Author/s: | Shivshankar Menon |
| Abstract: | Asia's phenomenal economic success has resulted in shifts in the political and military balance of power. What do these mean for Asian geopolitics? Will Asia be able in the future to keep the security and peace that made Asia's economic transformation possible in the past? |
| Date: | 22 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 278 : The ‘Interlinking of Rivers’ Project in India: Potentials and Challenges |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan and Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | India’s river-linking project carries significant possibilities and challenges for the country. Through the transfer of water from water-rich to water-stressed regions, the project may address the issue of floods and droughts, but it may also produce an adverse impact on the catchment areas of the respective rivers. This paper assesses the ‘Interlinking of Rivers’ project in India through a discussion of its positive and negative effects. |
| Date: | 18 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 277 : The Kingdom of Bhutan: Evolution of the Modern State |
| Author/s: | Marian Gallenkamp |
| Abstract: | The Kingdom of Bhutan, one of the most elusive and inadequately studied states in South Asia, has seen a remarkable development since the introduction of hereditary monarchy in 1907. Each of the Wangchuck kings bearing the Raven Crown has left his distinctive mark on the country's polity and pursued the socio-cultural, economic and political development of Bhutan with a cautious mix of innovation and idealism. On the occasion of Bhutan's 110th National Day, this paper seeks to illustrate the political developments under the reign of past monarchs as well as the paradigm-shifting transition to democracy, before turning towards democracy's consolidation under the rule of Bhutan's current king, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of current challenges for the kingdom's future development. |
| Date: | 18 December 2017 |
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| Title: | 276 : The Maldives: On a Complex Political Trajectory |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The political identity of contemporary Maldives, an archipelagic state in the Indian Ocean region, is the outcome of long periods of independent existence, interspersed with episodes of colonial rule. During centuries of its independent status, the country witnessed various forms of government - monarchy, authoritarianism, and controlled democracy. In recent years, there has been a rise of Islamists forces in the Maldives. They have introduced pre-modern values in the society. Under their influence, a few Maldivians have even joined the militant and terrorist groups to participate in 'jihad' in foreign territories. If the Maldives is to continue to practise democratic norms, it must tackle this phenomenon. The region and the world at large must help. |
| Date: | 17 November 2017 |
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| Title: | 275 : Russia in Asia: Responding to Changing Times |
| Author/s: | Andrey Tatarinov |
| Abstract: | Deep geopolitical shifts are fundamentally changing the global landscape. Against this backdrop, the Asia-Pacific is emerging as a significant region which is likely to influence international developments in the near future. Russia's policy in the Asia-Pacific region is deliberate and focused - it is aimed at a stable balance of power and an elaboration of a cohesive regional agenda, in line with the realities of the 21st century. Russia believes there is a need to establish a strong environment of international relations in the region to promote multilateral trade and investment cooperation, initiate joint efforts to counter security challenges and prevent the emergence of new threats- and create a launch pad to build an integrated Asia-Pacific political and economic space. |
| Date: | 16 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 274 : Water Management Practices in Pakistan |
| Author/s: | Faiza Saleem |
| Abstract: | Water is one of Pakistan's biggest challenges. The current discourse focuses largely on interstate water sharing and its impact on water availability in Pakistan. This paper argues that Pakistan's acute shortage of water is the outcome of distorted water management practices. An in-depth look at supply and demand practices reveals deteriorating infrastructure, belowcost pricing of water, inefficiency in usage and an absence of alternative sources of supply. |
| Date: | 16 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 273 : Why Size Matters: Majority-Minority Status and Muslim Piety in South and Southeast Asia |
| Author/s: | Riaz Hassan |
| Abstract: | The differences in the socio-economic outcomes of majorities and minorities have been well studied in sociology. This paper breaks new ground by investigating the effect on religiosity of majority-minority status in two Muslim-majority and two Muslim-minority countries of South and Southeast Asia. Religiosity is conceptualised as a multi-dimensional phenomenon. The paper critically discusses this conceptualisation through an analysis of survey data. The findings show significant differences in the sociological profiles of religiosity in Muslimmajority and Muslim-minority countries. The architecture of religiosity is significantly more orthodox in Muslim-majority countries. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications of the findings for understanding the nature and dynamics of religious orthodoxy, the nature of civil society, religious reform and the role of collective religious social movements. |
| Date: | 9 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 272 : The Korean Nuclear Conundrum: ‘Fire and Fury’ Signifies Nothing? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The evolving strategic crisis in the Korean peninsula is arguably the most critical of its kind that the contemporary international system confronts. This has ramifications, in one way or another, for every region in the world. It appears that the acquisition of nuclear weapons by the Democratic Republic of Korea, better known as North Korea, has already become an inexorable, and indeed inescapable, reality. The international effort now should be to contain the consequences in a way that a nuclear Armageddon is avoided. This paper explores some possibilities of how this goal can be best pursued. |
| Date: | 9 October 2017 |
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| Title: | 271 : The Rohingya Crisis – A Challenge for India and Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | Amit Ranjan |
| Abstract: | The Rohingya crisis in Myanmar is the result of a clash of identities between the Muslim minority and the Buddhist majority in the Rakhine state of the country. Due to an increase in violence, a large number of Rohingyas have crossed into Bangladesh. Many have also fled to India and other parts of Asia. This has resulted in great tension in Bangladesh's relations with Myanmar. On its part, the Indian government is planning to deport the Rohingyas living within its borders. This paper traces the origins of the crisis and examines whether the crisis is just a humanitarian challenge or a security threat as well to the three countries - India, Bangladesh and Myanmar. |
| Date: | 25 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 270 : Regional Governance in a Changed Context: A Preliminary Analysis of Bihar, Tripura and West Bengal |
| Author/s: | Subrata Kumar Mitra and Taisha Grace Antony |
| Abstract: | Within the overall framework of India’s political stability and democratic governance, political scenarios in India’s regions and localities present a contrasting picture. This includes violent mobs on the streets of Srinagar, insurgency and armed secessionist movements in India’s north-east, Naxalite violence in several states of India, and violent inter-community riots that, nevertheless, do not impair the overall stability of the state. How does India cope with these challenges to governance? Focused on a comparative analysis of regional governance, the paper answers this key question with reference to policies and administrative and legal structures at the regional level that promote governance. By drawing on the logic of human ingenuity, driven mostly by self-interest, the innovation of appropriate rules and procedures, and most of all – agency, of elites and their non-elite followers – the paper sheds light on policies, institutions and processes that enhance governance. It argues that ‘fundamentalism’, ‘ethnicity’, conflict and fragmentation, seen as characteristic of non-western politics, have political and not necessarily cultural and idiosyncratic origins and, as such, are amenable to a general explanation, and empirical policy analysis. |
| Date: | 4 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 269 : Governance in India: Political Order, Accountability and Public Service Delivery |
| Author/s: | Subrata Kumar Mitra and Taisha Grace Antony |
| Abstract: | The resilience of democratic governance makes India an exception to the rule among transitional societies. We argue in this paper that this puzzle is best explained with reference to the innovative character of India's political system and process which combines ordermaking institutions with those ensuring accountability and public service delivery. The capacity for appropriate institutional arrangements and political innovation draws on the process of institutional innovation that connects modern politics in India to its classical roots. This gives the Indian political system its coherence, authenticity and legitimacy. |
| Date: | 4 September 2017 |
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| Title: | 268 : Afghanistan in 2017: Continuing Struggle to Define Itself |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Afghanistan has seen a lot of history. Since it is not easy to compress it into the space of a Working Paper, the author will focus his attention on more recent times. Beginning with the Bonn Agreement of 2001 involving many countries around the world that wanted to see stability come to the country that has seen unimaginable violence for four decades, this paper will provide a brief overview of the way politics has developed in the country over the last decade. It will then provide an overview of the economic situation, suggesting that sustained growth in the depressed economy will only come once the country controls violence. Since Afghanistan's political progress depends to considerable extent on the country's relations with Pakistan, its neighbour to the southeast, a section will examine how Kabul and Islamabad are looking at each other. The paper will devote considerable space to the way the American policy is evolving in the country under the newly installed administration headed by President Donald Trump. The White House is still involved in the process of developing its approach towards the country in which the Americans intervened in 2001 and have been fighting there for 16 years. The final section of the paper examines the likely impact on the South Asian sub-continent of continued turbulence in Afghanistan. |
| Date: | 19 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 267 : Indian Democracy at 70: Some General Lessons |
| Author/s: | Subrata Kumar Mitra |
| Abstract: | Is democracy a moveable feast? Can all societies reach the twin ideals of popular rule and an accountable government, mindful of minorities, given appropriate institutions? Independent India's democratic experience, though fraying at the peripheries but still solid at the core, gives rise to these salient questions which have deep significance for transition to democracy and its consolidation in transitional societies emerging from colonial rule, foreign occupation or dictatorship. This paper analyses the Indian experience in the light of six general propositions about institutions and processes that pave the way for transition to democracy and its consolidation. The assumptions on which they are based are general, and not culture- and context-specific. Alone, or in combination, popular elections, institutionalised countervailing powers endogenous to the political system, power-sharing, the accommodation of diversity based on region and community, inclusive citizenship and a previous experience of limited franchise on which to build the post-transition regime can help pave the way towards democratic rule in transitional societies. |
| Date: | 15 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 266 : Pakistan is 70: What If? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Pakistan did not expect to be born as a nation-state. However, when its birth did occur, it led to unprecedented upheavals. Some of these have left a lasting impression on the country’s extremely turbulent history. This paper introduces the readers to some of the main features that dot the country’s landscape. It discusses the circumstances of the country’s birth; the many crises the country faced from 1951 to 2008; the country’s current situation that has several positives but also many negatives; and, finally, the direction in which Pakistan seems to be headed in the eighth decade of its life as an independent state. A section also discusses some of the “what ifs..?” concerning Pakistan to illuminate some salient points in the country’s mostly-troubled history. |
| Date: | 14 August 2017 |
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| Title: | 265 : The Informal Sector in India: Indicator of Resilience or a Malaise? |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | The informal sector accounts for over 92 per cent of the labour force, over 40 per cent of output, and 99 per cent of businesses in India. The range and size of informality in India is arguably larger than for any other economy, compared to other economies at a similar stage of development. The informal economy primarily comprises of millions of self-employed, and small and tiny, relatively inefficient enterprises that detract from India's growth potential. Informal enterprises have deep and intricate links with formal sector enterprises and are affected by developments in the domestic and global economies. The spread of informality is symptomatic of much that ails the Indian economy. Yet, it is also a powerful safety valve, offering employment and income generation avenues for tens of millions who are unable to secure jobs in the formal sector. This paper reviews the reasons leading to the growth of the informal sector. It finds that a nuanced approach, cognisant of the wide differences across the informal sector, should identify segments that should be allowed to exist as informal entities and those that should, with improving conditions for doing business, be induced to enter the formal economy. |
| Date: | 31 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 264 : The Informal Sector: An Exposition on its Origins, Current State and Future Prospects |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | In developing economies, it is visible everywhere. It is amorphous, difficult to define, challenging to measure, generally beyond the grasp and, indeed, comprehension of the authorities. Yet the informal sector accounts for a significant share of the economy and directly impacts the lives of a majority of the population. Fifty per cent of the global workforce is estimated to be employed in the informal sector (OECD, 2009). What is the informal sector? Why does it exist? How does it impact the quest for growth and equity? |
| Date: | 28 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 263 : The Donald Trump Phenomenon and the American Presidency |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the subject of what is being called the 'Trump phenomenon'. Much has already been written on the rise of Donald Trump, who gained a spot at the top of the United States political structure without previously ever having been elected to public office or holding a position in government. His rise was unprecedented in American history and will leave an indelible mark, not only on the country, but also on the entire world. Why that happened will be the subject of interest for historians and political scientists for decades to come. The final judgment is not likely to be positive. He will be seen as a great disruptor rather than as a great builder. |
| Date: | 26 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 262 : The Indian Ocean Rim Association: Scaling Up? |
| Author/s: | Barana Waidyatilake |
| Abstract: | Having achieved relatively little in two decades of its existence, the Indian Ocean Rim Association, which met for the first time at a summit level in March 2017, can now assess the opportunities for economic cooperation and connectivity among its member states. While a beginning could perhaps be made at a sub-regional level, as an example for others to follow, the challenges of diversities and geopolitics cannot also be discounted. |
| Date: | 12 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 261 : The Shaping of the ‘Trumpian’ World Economic Order |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | This paper discusses the way in which Donald Trump, the new American President, is unravelling the global political and economic orders that had been painstakingly established over a long period of time. The foundation of the old order was laid right after the end of the Second World War in Europe and was built upon during the days of the Cold War. Its evolution hastened following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. With the Cold War's ideological conflict over, Francis Fukuyama, a reputable sociologist, claimed that history had come to an end - it had ended, he believed, since the world would no longer be engaged in ideological conflicts.2 However, governance is more than the pursuit of ideologies. It also includes the way nations interact with one another and the institutions they create to promote these contacts. |
| Date: | 6 July 2017 |
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| Title: | 260 : Trump’s Overtures to the Islamic World: Implications for the Middle East and South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | If United States President Donald Trump had hoped to reboot his faltering presidency by going to Saudi Arabia at the beginning of his first foreign tour, he seems unlikely to achieve that goal. By starting his nine-day trip with Riyadh as the first port of call, he expected to divert the attention of the growing number of his critics at home who were focusing on the almost daily revelations about and from a dysfunctional White House. He thought that he would bring back good economic news from his foreign trip. He wanted to shift the attention of the American people towards economic issues, in particular, employment. He was of the view that the political base he had built to gain the presidency would continue to give him support if he could bring jobs to the economically-devastated areas in the country. Even with several memoranda of understanding signed with the Saudi government – and with the companies in the kingdom – it is arguably unlikely that he will succeed in creating many new jobs in America. |
| Date: | 15 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 259 : Anti-nuclear Movements in India: The Case of Kovvada, Andhra Pradesh |
| Author/s: | Varigonda Kesava Chandra |
| Abstract: | The Indian state's civil nuclear policy, characterised by the construction of nuclear power plants, has witnessed considerable opposition in recent years from people residing in its vicinity. The direct impact on the livelihoods of these often rural, poor and lower-caste populations is discerned through land acquisition and population displacement, along with a loss of traditional ways of earning, especially through fishing and subsistence farming. In addition, the perceived impact on health and safety of the population and pollution to the environment, especially from the radiation emitting from the plant, as well as the propensity of a potentially catastrophic accident like that of Fukushima or Chernobyl, has driven the opposition to nuclear power. The narrative, thereby, becomes one of the state and the larger national interest versus the rights of those living in the periphery. The paper demonstrates the relationship of the periphery and the nation-state with regards to nuclear power, particularly through the example of the planned nuclear plant at Kovvada in Andhra Pradesh. |
| Date: | 15 June 2017 |
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| Title: | 258 : Chinese Perceptions on India’s Long Range Missile Development: How Credible is India’s Deterrence against China? |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | India's long range missiles such as Agni IV and Agni V are the core of its deterrence against China. The scholarly Chinese perceptions of the capability of these missiles matter very much as an important variable in the planning and development of India's deterrence. The Chinese analysis of the Indian long range missile tests especially the Agni V reveals how the Chinese view the credibility of the Indian missile threat. Chinese specialists also discuss the prospects of India attaining a credible deterrence through long range missile development, and the counter strategies China should adopt against it. These perceptions furthermore point to Chinese thinking about the ideal security architecture in Asia and India's role in it. |
| Date: | 24 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 257 : Democracy and Ethnicity in Nepal |
| Author/s: | Krishna Hachhethu |
| Abstract: | Following a successful conflict transformation of a decade long Maoist insurgency (1996-2006) with the promulgation of the new constitution in September 2015, Nepal has entered into the verge of new conflict, an ethnic conflict. Ethnicity has recently become a critical issue in responding to the fact that the political structure of Nepal has not yet been framed in conformity to the social diversity of the country |
| Date: | 20 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 256 : Dalai Lama’s Visit to Arunachal Pradesh and China’s Shifting Diplomatic Strategies |
| Author/s: | Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | China’s reactions to the visit by Dalai Lama to Arunachal Pradesh in April 2017 symbolises a deeper shift in China’s perception of the Tibet issue and India’s role in it. The Chinese view the unrest in Tibet as part of the unresolved border issue between India and China. The intensification of the Chinese rhetoric over Tibet is backed by newfound confidence from the Chinese diplomatic victories in recent years over the Dalai Lama issue. With the rising Chinese economic influence, China is increasingly able to isolate Dalai Lama in the international arena and the Tibetan cause he expounds. India’s diplomatic signalling of using Dalai Lama may prove to be counterproductive, because China is using it as an anti-India tool, which helps it to mobilize the Chinese nationalists against India’s support to the Chinese Tibetan “separatists”. |
| Date: | 13 April 2017 |
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| Title: | 255 : Sri Lanka’s Ethnicized Experience of Democracy: A reading from the Sri Lankan Survey results of State of Democracy in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Pradeep Peiris |
| Abstract: | This paper attempts to provide a brief insight into the way in which democracy is functioning in Sri Lanka. The perceptions, attitudes and practices of Sri Lankans with regards to democracy are examined by analyzing the findings of the latest survey of the State of Democracy in South Asia (SDSA) that was conducted in five countries in South Asia. |
| Date: | 9 February 2017 |
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| Title: | 254 : What Demonetisation Sought: Was it a Bridge Too Far? |
| Author/s: | Dipinder S Randhawa |
| Abstract: | On November 8, 2016, the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi, announced the demonetisation of the Rs 500 and Rs, 1,000 currency notes from that midnight. This was arguably the most radical monetary policy initiative since 1947, leaving no part of the population unaffected. The main objective was to curb the black economy. This paper contends that demonetisation has proven to be a blunt policy instrument for checking the parallel economy. Data shows that a small proportion of black money is held as cash, with an overwhelming majority of illegally generated funds held in other asset classes such as precious metals, property, other financial instruments and offshore accounts. Of the funds unaccounted for by the tax authorities, a significant proportion has been returned to the banking system. Though precise estimates are difficult to obtain, collateral damage on the informal sector and those on the economic margin seem to have been severe, while the return of a large proportion of invalidated cash to the banking system, may have negated the original objective of seizing black money. There are likely to be benefits for public finance and progress in the quest for digitalising payments. However, without structural reforms and reforms in tax administration, a sustainable impact on the parallel economy is doubtful. From that perspective, the rationale for demonetisation is open to question. |
| Date: | 25 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 253 : Recent Trends in India’s China Policy: The imperative for Greater Room to Manoeuver |
| Author/s: | Subrata Kumar Mitra and Srikanth Thaliyakkattil |
| Abstract: | Does a sense of inadvertent appeasement underpin the recent China policy of the Government of India? Since Mr. Narendra Modi became Prime Minister of India, China has consistently adopted positions that oscillate between benign indifference, and the plainly hostile, with regard to India's national interest. The efforts by the Indian government have not visibly succeeded in influencing Chinese policy which comes across as obstructive and uncooperative on issues vital for India. India's economic engagement with China is skewed in favor of China. Under the Modi government this situation has become worse, reflecting, perhaps, a long-term term trend based on structural factors. On the basis of available evidence it can be argued that the pattern of India's increasing economic engagement with China has contributed to strengthening China's position in its relation with India, while constraining India's strategic and diplomatic options. |
| Date: | 20 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 252 : Dealing with Trump’s America |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | This essay on a rare political phenomenon – the election of Donald Trump as the president of the United States – was as unexpected as is hard to explain. It will also have consequences for the United States and the world at large that will be profound and leave their mark on history. Over time a great deal will get to be written on the subject in popular books and in scholarly journals. This is an early attempt to cover the ground in several short sections. There are three main conclusions I will reach here. |
| Date: | 20 January 2017 |
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| Title: | 251 : China and the Trump Presidency: Some implications for the world, and South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | After a quiet period that lasted for a quarter century – from the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Unions to the 2016 election of a maverick non-politician by the Americans as their 45th president – great power rivalry has reemerged on the global scene. The United States remained unchallenged by any other power ruled the waves for 25 years. As I argued in a book, Rising Powers and Global Governance, published in early 2017, the world was entering a period of considerable uncertainty. It did not have global institutions that could intermediate between competing powers to usher in a new world order. |
| Date: | 20 January 2017 |
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