| Title: | 138 : India’s Engagement with Afghanistan: Developing a Durable Policy Architecture |
| Author/s: | Daniel Norfolk |
| Abstract: | Calls for a regional approach to stabilise Afghanistan have not been accompanied by serious efforts to analyse the evolving motivations and strategies of regional actors. Occupying a unique position as Afghanistan’s leading regional development partner, India is poised to play an instrumental role. The development partnership between India and Afghanistan, which e merged in the wake of the United State ( US ) invasion in 2001, has been recalibrated according to a revised conception of India’s own strengths and limitations in its region and a sober reassessment of geopolitical realities. Built into this revision is a measured accommo dation of Pakistan. While India may now succeed in carving out a strategically viable place for itself, the ability of India to achieve its goals in Afghanistan crucially depends on its capacity to leverage regional cooperation. |
| Date: | 12 December 2011 |
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| Title: | 137 : Inclusive Growth:How is India Doing? |
| Author/s: | John Harriss |
| Abstract: | Inclusive growth was the over-arching objective set in India’s 11th Five-Year Plan for the period 2007-2012; and the aim of this paper is briefly to review evidence and argument about India’s progress towards realising this vision. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in his Foreword to the Plan document, wrote of the need to ensure that ‘income and employment are adequately shared by the poor and weaker sections of our society’, and there is – unfortunately - a lot of evidence suggesting that this is not happening. Rather there is evidence in support of the view that India is characterised by extensive exclusion of labour. Data from the National Sample Survey show that productive jobs are not being created at anything like the rate required for ‘inclusive growth’ to be realised, and it is possible that there is even an inverse relationship between economic growth in India, and productive employment. The agricultural economy, meanwhile, remains both inefficient and inequitable. Recent developments in India’s policies for social protection – such as the National Rural Employment Guarantee scheme – may perhaps be understood as reflecting the failures of ‘inclusive growth’. |
| Date: | 29 November 2011 |
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| Title: | 136 : Does Labour Migration Bring about Economic Advantage? |
| Author/s: | Md Mizanur Rahman |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the assumed economic advantage of temporary labour migration. The widely shared sentiment that temporary migration brings about economic advantage for migrants and their families often is a function of income differentials between two countries. This study argues that opportunity for temporary employment in a high income country does not necessarily translate into economic advantage for every individual migrant and his or her family in a low income country. This study addresses the undercurrent of risks in the international labour migration process and its implications on family economics. This study draws from the experiences of Bangladeshis in Saudi Arabia. It reports that migrants often undertake international migration at great costs of their own, incurring large debts, risking personal savings and family assets, and accentuating income risks and capital constraints, while the remittances are meagre in the repair of such family economics. |
| Date: | 20 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 135 : Pakistan and Patrons: The United States, PR China and Saudi Arabia |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | Many Asian and African polities entered into alliances with the two main superpowers of the post-Second World War era – the United States (US) and the Soviet Union – in the hope of getting economic and military aid. Some chose to tread a middle path by joining the NonAligned Movement (NAM). Pakistan initially entered into an alliance with the US, followed by alliances with the People’s Republic of China and Saudi Arabia to assert itself in relation to the much bigger and more powerful India. However, the alliances placed Pakistan in a relationship of dependency vis-a-vis its three patrons. This paper examines the implications and ramifications of such dependency for Pakistan in the wake of the 9/11 terrorist attacks ordered by Al Qaeda on the US and especially in the aftermath of the killing of Osama bin Laden by US Special Forces in Abbotabad, Pakistan. |
| Date: | 20 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 134 : Manmohan in Bangladesh: The Visit Revisited |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury and M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | The visit by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Bangladesh in September 2011 was billed as his most important foreign policy initiative of the year. It was to have been a paradigm for resolving intractable relations between neighbours, a model to be emulated in other similar situations. Instead, it fell a victim to the complexities and idiosyncrasies of India's domestic politics, and became what many saw as much ado about little. Some key agreements were not signed, despite public expectations rendering this important event one of more protocol than substance. The article analyses the reasons why. The essay points to some structural issues of centre-state relations in India that will require to be addressed with regard to foreign policy questions, particularly in terms of relations with other nations in the region. It examines how perceived national self-interests can often override even the closest of personal rapport as between Prime Ministers of Bangladesh and India. One simple but profound lesson learnt from this episode is that one must not undertake major initiatives with regard to inter-State relations, even between the best of friends, without the most thorough preparations. Nonetheless, the authors give the visit a mixed grade, and argue that if an appropriate follow-up mechanism is put in place even now, there would be potentials for advance on whatever had been achieved, which while little now, can grow into much over time |
| Date: | 13 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 133 : An Approach to Forecasting Market Demand in India |
| Author/s: | S Narayan, Sarin Paraparakath, Asha Abraham & Deepa Karthykeyan |
| Abstract: | One of the characteristics of growth in emerging economies is the sharp growth in steel consumption resulting from public investment outlays in infrastructure, coupled with outlays in construction as the economy expands. The last decade's healthy growth of the Indian economy has led to steep rises in the consumption of steel. This paper is an attempt to econometrically analyse the growth in market demand for steel in India using aggregate sectoral demand patterns. It seeks to project demand-supply gaps up to 2014 - 2015. The results would be of interest to academics and for business. |
| Date: | 12 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 132 : Recruitment of Labour Migrants for the Gulf States: The Bangladeshi Case |
| Author/s: | Md Mizanur Rahman |
| Abstract: | Recruitment constitutes an important part of the process of temporary labour migration in Asia. Existing literature explicitly suggests that the rapid development of recruiting agencies and migrant networks has accelerated the growth of labour migration in Asia. However, most existing literature tends to focus on either the role of agencies or the role of networks in the recruitment process, not both simultaneously. Likewise, the economics of recruitment is almost inseparable from labour recruitment in Asia but it remains an area of peripheral interest in existing literature. This study argues that a holistic approach, meaningfully combining migrant networks and recruitment agencies, to highlight both the operational and economic aspect of recruitment, is needed to better understand the complexity of migrant recruitment dynamics in Asia. Focusing on the recruitment experiences of Bangladeshi migrants in the GCC states, this study examines the operational as well as economic aspects of recruitment. This paper reveals how migrant networks and recruitment agencies adapt to the changing practices of recruitment to funnel migrant workers to the GCC countries. Further, it explains how constellations of interests at different points in the system create the conflicts and contradictions throughout the recruitment process. |
| Date: | 6 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 131 : How Well Has South Asia Coped With the Global Financial Crisis: Monetary Management, Regulation and Market Discipline |
| Author/s: | D. M. Nachane and M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | The global financial crisis affected most economies primarily through three channels– declining trade volumes, exchange rate pressure and asset deflation. The paper focuses on the impact of the crisis in the four major economies of South Asia viz. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka and how by a combination of swift actions on the monetary, fiscal and exchange rate fronts the worst consequences of the crisis were averted. The regulatory and supervisory systems in these four economies are then benchmarked against certain desirable norms, which have emerged out of post-crisis international deliberations. It is felt that South Asian regulatory systems perform fairly well vis-à-vis these norms. The paper also discusses three major unresolved issues on the regulatory and supervisory dimensions. With regard to the Principles versus Rules-based regulation controversy, it recommends that a more promising and safer course of action would be to make the existing (rules-based) system more flexible and dynamic. Secondly, with a view to strengthening market discipline, several new initiatives seem to be in order, the most important being the switchover to a riskbased premium of deposit insurance. Finally, the paper discusses the crucial issue of independence of regulators and supervisors from official (government) interference and market “noise”, in executing their mandate of financial stability. The authors are of the view that the future success of financial reforms in South Asia will be crucially contingent upon how successfully the regulatory architecture adapts to the twin dictates of financial development and financial stability, the extent to which market discipline can be usefully deployed as a pillar to support this architecture; and the degree to which regulatory and supervisory independence is not compromised. |
| Date: | 1 September 2011 |
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| Title: | 130 : An Outsider’s View of Some Issues in Contemporary Indian Foreign Policy |
| Author/s: | David M. Malone |
| Abstract: | Anand Giridharadas wrote in 2009 that India is ‘a country harder to describe than to explain, and easier to explain than to understand’, and that ‘India is a place for seeking, not concluding’. 2 This is a profoundly true but also humbling observation for a non- Indian author addressing a topic such as Indian foreign policy. |
| Date: | 26 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 129 : India’s Engagement with ASEAN: Beyond Trade in Goods |
| Author/s: | Shankaran Nambiar |
| Abstract: | India has actively engaged the Association of Southeast As ian Nations ( ASEAN ), reaching a zenith with the signing of ASEAN -India Free Trade Agreement (AIFTA) on 13 August 2009. Further, India has plans for bilateral free trade agreements ( FTA ) with select ASEAN member nations. Broadly speaking, the comparative advantage of ASEAN member countries is in manufacturing, while that of Ind ia is in services. Hence both ASEAN and India can exploit their relative strengths . The paper will seek to look beyond trade in goods to flag 2 other areas that might offer scope for br oader engagement in the future . The p aper argues that trade in services , security, the environment and infrastructure offer wider opportunities for collaboration between ASEAN and India. |
| Date: | 26 August 2011 |
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| Title: | 128 : Inflation in India: An Empirical Analysis |
| Author/s: | Pratima Singh |
| Abstract: | High inflation in India has become a major issue with both academ ics and policy makers . It is one of the big gest hindrances to growth and a major policy challenge for incumbent governments . This paper analyses trends in infl ation over the past five years, particularly food inflation, and examines the demand and supply side factors behind surging food prices . It argues that demand for several food items in India exceeds their current suppl ies , and leads to high p rices. It further contends that this demand - supply imbalance is attributable to structu ral inefficiencies , including distribution of food products. Pointing out that monetary policy responses are unlikely to prove effective in reducing food prices, the paper emphasises on the importance of increasing agricultural productivity and reforming retail trade policies for long - term results. |
| Date: | 10 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 127 : South Asia: Policy Responses to the Global Crisis |
| Author/s: | S Narayan |
| Abstract: | The impact of the economic crisis of 2008-09 was felt significantly in the economies of South Asia. Demand for exports and foreign investments fell in the real economy as well as in the financial markets. This led to a softening of domestic demand in the consumption sectors, leading to a slowdown in the growth of these economies. The economies in South Asia have now recovered and the problems of 2009 and 2010 have been left behind. Policy interventions that were adopted in the different countries varied not just due to differing macroeconomic considerations, but also because of the political economy considerations in these countries. This paper attempts to examine these interventions, their causes and effects. |
| Date: | 9 May 2011 |
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| Title: | 126 : Shaping the Coordinates of India’s Trade Policy Architecture |
| Author/s: | Amit Shovon Ray |
| Abstract: | India’s trade policy architecture has undergone a phenomenal metamorphosis over the last six decades. The objective of this paper is to understand the ‘factors’ that have shaped India’s trade policy architecture at various junctures in its development path. In particular, the paper will identify whether domestic economic compulsions or international economic environment have played the key role in determining the coordinates of India’s trade policy architecture over time. The paper broadly concludes that India’s trade policy architecture has remained by and large homegrown, dictated by domestic imperatives, both economic and political, rather than by the forces of the international economic order. Even at the WTO, India’s stance has been shifting rather dramatically, but much of it may be linked to India’s ‘self interest’ as opposed to international compulsions. |
| Date: | 21 April 2011 |
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| Title: | 125 : The Future of Financial Liberalisation in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Ashima Goyal |
| Abstract: | The paper defines financial liberalisation, distinguishing between liberalisation of domestic financial markets and capital account convertibility. It then examines the stages and the strategy of Indian financial reform. The Indian strategy followed a well thought out sequence whereby full capital account liberalisation was to come after deepening domestic markets, and improving government finances. One alone is dangerous without the others. The experience of the global crisis has validated the Indian strategy and also shown that foreign entry has benefits but cannot resolve all issues. Deepening domestic markets and better domestic and international regulation is a necessary prerequisite for full convertibility. The direction of future liberalisation should be such as meets Indian needs of financial inclusion, infrastructure finance, and domestic market deepening |
| Date: | 19 April 2011 |
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| Title: | 124 : India, Afghanistan and the ‘End Game’? |
| Author/s: | Shanthie Mariet D'Souza |
| Abstract: | New Delhi, in recent times, has been confronted with some hard choices in Afghanistan. A decade - long policy of providing huge humanitarian and developmental assistance, which has accrued tremendous go odwill among the Afghans, is now perceived to be in imminent danger of being dis rupted and overwhelmed by the United States (US) dec ision of conditional withdrawal. This is in addition to the recently shifting discourse of negotiating with the Taliban, whi ch is interpreted as an upsurge of Pakistani influence in Kabul. The choice for India was never whether it should sta y engaged in Afghanistan or not. E ven in the face of repeated onslaughts on its personnel and mission , India was committed to staying the c ourse . However, decision making to that extent has become even more d ifficult given that the West appears to be in a hurry to bring its ominous gamble in Afghanistan to a close. It is thus timely to take stock of India’s role a nd interests in Afghanistan. I t is also useful to explore various policy options in the evo lving scenarios of limited down sizing or even complete withdrawal of interna tional troops from the conflict - ridden country. |
| Date: | 14 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 123 : Comparing the ASEAN and SAARC Frameworks |
| Author/s: | Syeda Sana Rahman |
| Abstract: | Asia has experienced an explosion of regional trade agreements (RTAs) in recent years particularly in East and Southeast Asia. Production and institutions across these regions have become further integrated due to these RTAs. The domain of integration now extends to South Asia with India and other South Asian economies getting connected to East and Southeast Asia through formal trade arrangements. Proliferation of RTAs has revived the debate on multilateralism and regionalism. While most regional economies figure in the multilateral framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO), their pursuit of RTAs has raised questions over whether they repose greater faith in regional trade networks. The Economics and Trade Policy research cluster at ISAS organised a workshop at Singapore on 20 October 2010 on „Trade Policies in South Asia and Southeast Asia: Encouraging Regionalism?‟ that examined different aspects of the theme including comparative dimensions of trade frameworks, bilateral trade relations and country perspectives on regional trade. The papers are being brought out by ISAS as a working paper series. This paper is the second in this series |
| Date: | 7 March 2011 |
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| Title: | 122 : Pakistan after the Floods: Prospects for Stability and Democratic Consolidation |
| Author/s: | Ian Talbot |
| Abstract: | This paper uses the summer floods of 2010 as a lens to examine Pakistan's worsening econ omic, security and governance issues since the February 2008 elections. It initially explains the background to the inundations which displaced 20 million people, caused massive damage to infrastructure and threatened to suppress an already sluggish econom ic rebound from the world recession. The politicisation of the circumstances surrounding flooding is discussed along wi th its historical significance. The paper then reveal s how the natural disaster exacerbated the multi - faceted challenges facing the Pakis tan Peoples Party (PPP) - led coalition. It also discusses the political impact of President Asif Ali Zardari's absence from the country at the time of the national calamity. The paper also lays bare the fact that the Government had inherited a declining eco nomic and security s ituation from the Musharraf era and then that structural economic and governance problems can be traced back to much further in Pakistan's history. |
| Date: | 10 February 2011 |
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| Title: | 121 : India’s ‘Look East’ Policy: The Strategic Dimension |
| Author/s: | S.D. Muni |
| Abstract: | India’s ‘Look East’ Policy (LEP) did not begin in the 1990s. It has evolved in four different waves over centuries. The first wave of cultural and commercial engagement between India and its extended eastern neighbours lasted until the 12th /13th century. To this was added a strong strategic dimension by the British Empire in India during the second wave. The leaders of independent India, particularly Nehru, took the lead in launching the third wave by focussing on East Asia as an important part of India’s policy of Asian resurgence. However, the imperatives of the Cold War, intra-Asian conflict and rivalries, and India’s weaknesses on economic and military fronts did not let its Asia policy blossom. |
| Date: | 1 February 2011 |
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| Title: | 120 : China’s Play in South Asia |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the changing nature of China’s involvement in the South Asian mainland in light of the back-to-back visits by Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to India and Pakistan. The Chinese leader was in New Delhi on 15-17 December and in Islamabad on 1719 December 2010. These visits were the subject of two past ISAS briefs in 2010.2 This paper takes a longer-term view of Chinese interest in South Asia in the context of the way the country perceives its role in the global economy and the international political system. The global system is in a state of considerable flux; while the economic dominance of the United States (US) in the global system is declining, that of China and India is increasing. The way these three countries play out their roles on the international stage will have enormous impact on the world economy and the structure of international politics. Pakistan, a substantially smaller economy, which at this time is faced with serious economic strife and security issues, will also have its part on the global stage. In fact, because of its geographical location and also having become the epicentre of Islamic extremism, Pakistan finds itself in the middle of this large-power triangle. The direction it takes could be influenced by China, India and the US. |
| Date: | 20 January 2011 |
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| Title: | 119 : Women Empowerment in Bangladesh: The Rise of the Other Half |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam and Suvi Dogra |
| Abstract: | Increasing freedom around the world, especially women's freedom, is one of the hallmarks of the current wave of globalisation. Some analysts project that this could further intensify and favourably transform societies across the world. The economic and socio-political conditions of women in South Asia are not unique. Within the regions, Sri Lanka emerged as a pioneer of sorts in terms of the process of women empowerment. However, Bangladesh too has made significant strides in recent years. It has outshone some of its South Asian neighbours, including India, as far as women empowerment is concerned. The country's achievements in this regard are unparalleled in the Muslim world, bar Indonesia. |
| Date: | 6 January 2011 |
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