| Title: | 103 : Vocational Education and India’s Skills Deficit |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | The policy debate on revamping and reforming education in India usually tends to focus on elementary and secondary education (delivered through schools) and higher education, with little being said on vocational education. This is not to suggest that the skills deficit is not recognised. While there are 12.8 million new entrants into the workforce every year, the existing annual training capacity is 3.1 million. The government has developed a roadmap for reform but not without several shortcomings. First, government ministries and departments work in silos. Second, much implementation of the roadmap will remain a state subject and there is no guarantee that delivery will improve across all states. Third, though the roadmap incorporates possible private sector provisioning too, it is fundamentally based on expansions in the formal public training system. While the formal versus informal or organised versus unorganised dichotomy is often policy-induced, it is necessary to subsume successful examples of delivery in the non-formal and private categories too. Fourth, much hinges on improving vocational education in secondary schools. Therefore, at the moment, there is no particular reason for optimism. |
| Date: | 8 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 102 : President Barack Obama in Asia – Searching the Basis for a Partnership |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | United States President Barack Obama’s visit to Asia took him to four countries – Japan, Singapore, China and South Korea. The trip will have a lasting impact for at least two reasons. The American president gave up on the position taken by George W. Bush, his predecessor in the White House, that America would rule the international waves alone and would not share that space with any other nation. Instead, the new president went out of his way to invite Asia to join his nation to shape a new world order. He defined the twenty-first century as the Pacific century. Second, he singled out China as the United States’ partner in this enterprise. Implementing this design will not be easy. Already, the conservatives in his country have signalled their unhappiness with this change in America’s strategic thinking. And India, the other major Asian power, did not welcome President Obama’s call to China to help bring peace and prosperity to South Asia, a region New Delhi regards as its sphere of influence. |
| Date: | 7 December 2009 |
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| Title: | 101 : Establishing Foreign Technical Training Facilities in India: The Option of Haryana |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit and Sasidaran Gopalan |
| Abstract: | A paper published by the Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) in September 2009 on"Skills Development in India: Challenges and Strategies" analysed the deficiencies in India's technical training infrastructure.2 The paper argued that expansive efforts to build skills in the country through the National Skills Development Project (NSDP) contain significant opportunities for foreign technical training providers. This paper probes deeper into such possibilities and aims to identify a specific location for establishing training facilities. |
| Date: | 26 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 100 : India and Its South Asian Neighbours |
| Author/s: | Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy and David M. Malone |
| Abstract: | India shares land and maritime boundaries with eight countries - Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, the Maldives, Myanmar, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. If one sets aside China, the Maldives, and Bhutan - mostly at peace - six countries in India's immediate neighbourhood have been on the boil on and off for many years. This paper also includes a consideration of India's relationship with Afghanistan. |
| Date: | 26 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 99 : Buddhism and the Legitimation of Power: Democracy, Public Religion and Minorities in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake |
| Abstract: | Buddhism has been associated with the philosophy and practice of compassion, tolerance, pacifism and ahimsa, or the avoidance of violence. The paradox of political and nationalist violence in modern Buddhist polities is particularly acute in Sri Lanka which has historically been viewed in the Theravada Buddhist world and canon as a Dhamma Dveepa (Island of the Doctrine), where the purer doctrine was to be preserved and flourish, since in India and Nepal, the birthplace of Buddhism and the Buddha Siddharta Gautama, the religion has had fewer adherents than Hinduism or Islam, and lacked state patronage. Since the Constitution of 1972, Buddhism has had a special place in Sri Lanka and, in recent times, the state, through its overseas diplomatic missions, has consciously projected itself as a Buddhist land and national heritage site, paradoxically, while engaged in one of the South Asian region's most violent armed conflicts. |
| Date: | 26 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 98 : The Talibanisation of Pakistan’s Western Region |
| Author/s: | Yasub Ali Dogar |
| Abstract: | Ever since the invasion of Afghanistan by the United States and its allies in 2001, there has been a strong resurgence of pro-Taliban elements in Pakistan's bordering provinces with Afghanistan. The Durand Line which was delineated at the turn of the century segregated tribes and clans in such a manner that even families were divided. Its sanctity (legality) was never accepted by either the Afghan or Pakistani tribesmen. |
| Date: | 24 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 97 : Civil Aviation in India: An Exploration in the Political Economy of Promoting Competition |
| Author/s: | Rahul Mukherji and Gaurav Kankanhalli |
| Abstract: | The civil aviation sector in India has witnessed remarkable growth in the last few decades. This paper aims to analyse the promotion of competition in this burgeoning sector with particular focus on the political economy of several key reform events. First, the economic ideas governing policy-making institutions such as the Prime Minister's Office were important. Second, the balance of payments crisis of 1991 was important for explaining change in the sector. Third, over time, bureaucratic politics within the sector, with certain ministries supporting and others opposing reorganisation, was a key factor underlying the pace of reform. Last but not least, the ideology of the party in power also made an impact on the promotion of competition in the sector. |
| Date: | 18 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 96 : Bangladesh-India Relations: Some Recent Trends |
| Author/s: | Mohd Aminul Karim |
| Abstract: | Both Bangladesh and India have had their relations shaped by history, culture, geography, economics and, above all, geopolitics. While India is a geopolitical, economic and military giant involved in the affairs of the world, over the years Bangladesh has been struggling to ensure the sustenance and preservation of human security within its borders. India's contribution towards Bangladesh's War of Liberation in 1971 was critical to the latter's birth. However, events that followed the liberation of Bangladesh did not result in the continuance of cordial relations between these two countries as expected. There are a few fundamental issues between India and Bangladesh, such as land and maritime boundary demarcations, the sharing of waters from 54 common rivers, informal trade, transnational crime, and interference in internal affairs that have adversely affected their relationship. On an optimistic note, however, interpersonal relations and civil society contact groups between the two countries have increased. Both nations need to undergo a change in mindset, particularly at the political level. There is a need for greater understanding, dialogue, diplomacy, regional cooperation and less interference in each other's internal affairs. While it may be easy to simply list these issues, overcoming them would be difficult, mainly due to the overall geopolitical compulsions, the historical legacy, and the mutual mistrust in the region. India-Bangladesh relations would improve greatly if both parties recognise the need for greater political will to overcome the geopolitical compulsions, to appreciate the essence of regional (mainly economic) cooperation and to realise the benefits of peaceful coexistence. In assessing the challenges between the two countries and the need to overcome them, this paper will examine some recent trends, as well as explore a possible framework for the future direction of India-Bangladesh relations. |
| Date: | 12 November 2009 |
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| Title: | 95 : India-China Trade: Explaining the Imbalance |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit and Shounkie Nawani |
| Abstract: | Merchandise trade between India and China has accelerated rapidly in recent years. China is now India's largest trading partner while India is also one of China's major trade partners. The rise in trade reflects an enhanced economic engagement between the two countries. A notable aspect of the growing trade, however, is its increasing imbalance. The balance of trade is not only in China's favour , but also exhibiting an increasing trend over time. This paper examines the relative competitiveness of Indian exports in the Chinese market as a key factor in explaining the imbalance in bilateral tr ade. The competitiveness of Indian exports is empirically assessed against those from the Southeast Asian countries , with the latter assumed as major competitors of Indian exports on account of the similarities in products exported and factor endowments. |
| Date: | 26 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 94 : Non-Proliferation versus Disarmament: A Destabilising Dichotomy |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The paper argues that the perceived dichotomy between non -proliferation and di sarmament in the nuclear -weapons debate that has stalled progress on both fronts is a 'destabili sing' one. In order for a breakthrough to occur after years of inaction, both must be addressed simultaneously and in various fora recogni sed and accepted by bo th the nuclear 'haves' , who emphasi se the former , and the 'have -nots' , who underscore the latter. These fora are the United Nations, the Conference on Disarmament and the Comprehensive Test -Ban Treaty (CTBT) Organi sation. |
| Date: | 21 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 93 : Economic Integration in Asia: Trends and Policies |
| Author/s: | Pradumna Bickram Rana |
| Abstract: | Unlike in other parts of the world, such as Africa and Latin America, regionalism (or the adoption of regional cooperation policies) is a relatively new phenomenon in Asia. Aside from the establishment of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in 1967, the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation in 1985, and several efforts to promote intra-regional trade, few policy actions were taken by the Asian countries to promote regional cooperation with each other until the mid-1990s. |
| Date: | 14 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 92 : Investment and Economic Opportunities: Urbanisation, Infrastructure and Governance in North and South India1 |
| Author/s: | Kala Seetharam Sridhar and A. Venugopala Reddy |
| Abstract: | There are substantial disparities across India's southern and northern states (Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) in terms of fundamental economic phenomena such as per capita net state domestic product, rural and urban poverty rates, and investment flows, with the southern states taking a lead over their northern counterparts. In this paper, we attempt to understand what factors have caused these differences. We examine human capabilities, skills and awareness, resources and the efficiency of their utilisation; extent of urbanisation; good governance, including law and order; and infrastructure across the two groups of states. With respect to the factors representing human capabilities - literacy, infant mortality, stock of graduates, enrolment in technical courses, population in working age group, number of higher educational institutions, and infrastructure such as installed capacity, households with electricity and telephone penetration, we find that the southern states have an advantage when compared to the northern states. The same is true with respect to factors indicating law and order, such as the proportion of cases pending trial in court. |
| Date: | 2 October 2009 |
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| Title: | 91 : The Next Stage of Singapore-India Relations: Possibilities and Prospects |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh and Syeda Sana Rahman |
| Abstract: | The history of relations between India and Singapore pre-dates their birth as independent nation-states. In the post-independence phase, relations between the two states have been subject to both low and high points, reflecting different degrees of engagement. In the last 15 years, however, Singapore-India relations have been on a relative upswing, characterised by closer association across a range of areas. This paper aims to provide an assessment of these more recent trends in relations between the two countries, looking at both traditional issue areas such as economic and defence-strategic ties as well as interrogating areas that are deemed relatively 'non-traditional' in nature, namely, education-knowledge transfer and building societal-level links between the two countries. This assessment will involve exploring both the future possibilities and potential pitfalls attendant to this bilateral relationship. |
| Date: | 24 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 90 : The Pakistan Military: Change and Continuity under General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani |
| Author/s: | Ishtiaq Ahmed |
| Abstract: | The Pakistan military is the most powerful institution in the country. It enjoys the informal status as the guardian of national sovereignty and integrity of a state perennially rocked by political instability and, in recent times, by terrorism. Since the 9/11 terrorist attacks, Pakistan partakes in the United States-led “war on terror”. Such participation has earned Pakistan the wrath of Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and other extremist Islamist organisations. Terrorism against Pakistan by the extremists is the latest threat faced by the country. Therefore, the decisions, policies and strategies adopted by the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) to deal with internal and external challenges to the state are imperative to understanding Pakistani politics. The COAS has, in the past, also ordered the military to remain neutral during the February 2008 elections. On the whole, he has used his influence to dissuade politicians from resorting to confrontational politics that could once again lead to political instability in the country. |
| Date: | 18 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 89 : Skills Development in India: Challenges and Strategies |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The Indian economy is widely expected to grow at sustained high rates over the next few decades and emerge as the second largest economy by 2050. These robust projections have much to do with the demographic profile of the country. India is slated to have one of the youngest populations in the world, with the bulk of the population figuring in the working age. Low dependency ratio and a surplus workforce put India at a strong comparative advantage vis-?á-vis most major economies. However, in order to utilise this 'demographic dividend' effectively, India needs to impart adequate and appropriate skills to its workforce. |
| Date: | 17 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 88 : America’s Involvement in Afghanistan |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | I launched my series of briefs on Afghanistan in the belief that it will matter a great deal for South Asia how the long-enduring conflict in that country takes shape in the coming weeks and months. Two South Asian countries – Pakistan and India – are deeply involved in Afghanistan, and so is the United States with which South Asia has a constantly evolving relationship. The United States’ failure or success will have consequences for South Asia. The two previous briefs were concerned with the presidential election held in the country on 20 August 2009. The result is still not known and the counting of votes is going on slowly. While the Afghans and the world wait for the result, the Americans have carried out yet another review of their strategy in the country. It was authored by General Stanley A. McChrystal, the new commander of the American forces in Afghanistan. His report is still working its way to the White House but it has been reported that it recommends a significant change in the United States’ strategy. The strategy suggests that while the Americans should provide more resources for winning the Afghan War, it should focus not just on defeating the Taliban but on winning the hearts and minds of the Afghan people. How the latter should be done will be an issue that will occupy the attention of the American policymakers for some time to come. While taking a pause in my “Afghanistan elections” Briefs, I will examine in this paper where the debate in America may take its Afghan policy, how it might influence the rise of Islamic extremism in Pakistan and how it could impact the rest of South Asia. |
| Date: | 15 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 87 : Reforming India’s Education Sector: The Case of Elementary Education |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | Elementary education in India is defined as Classes I through VIII and this is again sub-divided into primary (Classes I-V) and upper primary (Classes VI-VIII). The Indian Constitution was amended in 2002 through the 86th amendment. This stated that, “The State shall provide free and compulsory education to all children of the age of six to fourteen years in such manner as the State may, by law, determine.” In 2009, legislation was passed to give children the right to free and compulsory elementary education. The important strands of this legislation are the following: First, all children between the ages of six and fourteen have the right to free and compulsory education in a “neighbourhood” school. Second, no child can be held back, expelled or required to pass a board examination before the completion of elementary education. Third, schools cannot screen applicants at the admissions stage. Fourth, schools cannot charge capitation fees. Fifth, Kendriya Vidyalayas, Navodaya Vidyalayas, Sainik Schools and unaided schools will have to ensure that 25 percent of their students are from disadvantaged and economically weaker groups. New schools will not be established unless they meet these norms and existing schools have been given three years to comply. Sixth, other than Kendriya Vidyalayas, Navodaya Vidyalayas and Sainik Schools, government schools are exempted from penalties if they do not comply with the provisions. Therefore, barring these three types of schools, there is an effective abdication from the responsibility of delivering elementary education by the government. Seventh, the responsibility of delivering elementary education through neighbourhood schools is on state and local governments, with no clear division of responsibility between the two. There is a lack of accountability and no penalties are proposed on the authorities if delivery is not carried out. The idea is that specific academic authorities, like the National and State Advisory Councils will be established. Each school will also have a School Management Committee, with representatives from local authorities, parents and teachers. Eighth, all schools must comply with pupil/teacher norms and in addition, private schools also have to comply with physical infrastructure rules. However, the pupil/teacher norms are based on the total number of students, so that they allow for multi-grade teaching. |
| Date: | 14 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 86 : The Integration and “Re-Centering” of Asia – Historical and Contemporary Perspectives1 |
| Author/s: | Pradumna Bickram Rana |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that Asia’s emergence and integration after the Second World War is not without precedent. During the first eighteen centuries after the birth of Christ, Asia not only dominated the world economy but was also a well-connected and well-integrated region. These trends reversed during the 19th and the first half of the 20th centuries when Asia was colonised, and for another four decades after independence when South Asia adopted an inward-looking development strategy and isolated itself from the rest of Asia. Since then, South Asia has been reforming its economic policies and Asia has been re-emerging and reintegrating to regain its past status in the world economy. The paper also develops a research agenda to “re-center” Asia by linking South Asia with East Asia. |
| Date: | 9 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 85 : An Economic Analysis of Bangladesh’s Foreign Exchange Reserves |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | Following the rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves in recent months, there has been a growing interest in Bangladesh on the alternative uses of its reserves. However, different reserves adequacy measures based on global best practices confirm that its reserves holding is not markedly higher than what is required. The country's reserves stand higher than the adequate level only when one considers the current account aspects of reserves benchmark which is perhaps appropriate for the country as its financial system is still autarkic. The dynamics in its balance of payments account also supports the fact. |
| Date: | 7 September 2009 |
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| Title: | 84 : Beating the Recession: Prospects from a Single Asian Market in Services |
| Author/s: | Suparna Karmakar |
| Abstract: | Given their historical colonial experiences and recent attainment of independence, unlike European countries, most Asian economies are fiercely independent and nationalistic in their economic and foreign policies. This is most noticeable in the case of services, although a regional approach to the sector has the potential to produce hugely beneficial economic gains in the medium term vis-?á-vis the growth and trade prospects in individual Asian countries. While the proposition for creating a single market in services for the Asian countries as a region may seem premature given that the talks for a comprehensive East Asian free trade agreement (FTA) are still in the future, rapid market-led implementation of an integrated regional services sector merits consideration given the ongoing economic crisis. Stylised facts from past experience seem to indicate that services could easily become an additional engine of growth for the region. However, given the small size of most of the economies in the region, for this engine to generate the necessary efficiency gains, the major countries of the Asia-Pacific region (starting with the 16 players of the East Asia Summit [EAS]) will need to operate as a single market. Dovetailing a strong services industry into the Asian integrated manufacturing economy will boost the efficiency of both sectors, as well as help the region to delink from its excessive dependence on the United States and European markets. Asia should look at a coordinated and cooperative model in developing services as the growth engine for the region and use the tertiary sector as a vehicle for a faster deleveraging of the regionÔÇÖs disproportionate dependence on merchandise exports. A case is made for greater voluntary and market-led rather than institutionalised regionalism in services. |
| Date: | 20 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 83 : South Asia’s Public Policy Choices in a Fluid World |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | I shall begin this paper with a short biographical note. I do this in order to explain why I have focused so much attention on the importance of history for understanding why people and nations behave in certain ways. Beliefs take a long time to form, but once they are firmly embedded in a society’s culture, history and social norms, it takes equally long to shake them off. By beliefs, I do not mean religious affiliations. My concern is with all beliefs – economic, political and social. Today, South Asia is a highly fractured society in part because of the way the area’s history has unfolded, causing people in the region to harden their attitudes towards one another. It is my contention that unless the people of South Asia begin to look at each other differently, they will not attain for themselves what has become possible by way of the enormous changes occurring around them. The restructuring of the global economic, financial, industrial and trading systems have opened enormous opportunities for the countries of South Asia. To exploit them, the countries have to learn to work together. However, history comes in the way. To cast off the burden it imposes on the societies of South Asia, it is necessary first to understand how it has affected the making of public policy in the region. |
| Date: | 14 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 82 : Special Economic Zones in India: New Challenges for Governance and Public Policy |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | India's Special Economic Zones (SEZs) have been shrouded by controversies. The most contentious debates have been regarding the acquisition of land for these zones. SEZs have highlighted existing ambiguities in the laws on land acquisition as well as the process for determining compensations. In more recent months, financial viabilities of SEZs have been under the scanner with certain zone developers contemplating exits due to poor economic prospects. The SEZ policy is also inviting criticism for having a myopic vision on urban management and constitutional identities of the zones. The paper examines some of the challenges to public policy and governance produced by SEZs |
| Date: | 12 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 81 : Is India an East Asian Power? Explaining New Delhi’s Security Politics in the Western Pacific |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | New Delhi’s relationship with East Asia has come a long way from the early 1990s, when India launched its ‘Look East’ policy. While it continues to see the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) as the core of East Asia, India’s interests have broadened to include the Western Pacific as a whole. Although India’s economic ties with East Asia have yet to acquire the depth of China, the expectations of India’s superior economic performance and the prospect that it will emerge as one of the world’s four largest economies has created a sound basis for India’s relations with Pacific Asia. With faster economic growth, India’s military and strategic capabilities are becoming more consequential for East Asia. By embarking on a purposeful ‘big power’ diplomacy with the United States, China and Japan, building security partnerships with key regional actors and pursuing a vigorous maritime diplomacy, India is emerging as an important factor in the balance of power in Pacific Asia. |
| Date: | 11 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 80 : International Aid, Peace-building and Conflict: Lessons from Aceh and Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake |
| Abstract: | Global attention generated after the December 2004 Asian Tsunami disaster catalysed one of the most successful internationally-mediated peace processes in the world in Aceh, Indonesia, but it did not save the peace process in Sri Lanka. Rather, international aid contributed to a "no-war, no-peace" equilibrium in Sri Lanka that was brought to an end by the military victory of the government |
| Date: | 4 August 2009 |
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| Title: | 79 : The South Asian Way: A Non-Conventional Approach to the Making of Economic Policies1 |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | In order to quicken the pace of economic growth and social development, policymakers in South Asia need to go beyond the conventional production function approach. According to that approach, capital accumulation and application of labour to more productive activities increase the rate of economic growth. The process goes on for as long as backward economies have labour surpluses. This is still the case in South Asia where the majority of the population lives in the countryside, mostly engaged in low productivity economic activities. The study of economic progress not only in developing countries, but also in developed countries, led to the realisation by some economists that knowledge was also a major contributor to growth. They brought it into the production function as an endogenous factor rather that keeping it out as an exogenous contributor. However, knowledge accumulation meant educating the work force and also providing skills needed by modernising economies. This is one of the many roles the state must play but has neglected in South Asia. |
| Date: | 30 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 78 : The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: India and the Global Financial Crisis |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam and Ramkishen S. Rajan |
| Abstract: | Following the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, the global liquidity crisis affected the Indian financial market adversely. This was largely due to the sudden and large-scale reversals of the foreign institutional investments from the Indian market. However, as the crisis started to spread to the real economy and inflation subdued to some extent, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) eased policy interest rates sharply and began a process of injecting large-scale liquidity into the financial system. As foreign and non-bank domestic sources of funding dried up, faced with severe refinancing risks, both big corporate houses and small businesses relied heavily on domestic banks as alternative sources of funds. This threatened to put intense pressure on Indian credit markets and brought into the spotlight the ÔÇÿcredit viewÔÇÖ channel of monetary transmission, particularly the bank lending channel |
| Date: | 28 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 77 : Strategic Implications of the Global Economic Crisis for India |
| Author/s: | Sanjaya Baru |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that India's recent growth acceleration has only partially been hurt by the global economic slowdown. For this reason, and given the return of the Manmohan Singh government to power, India is expected to pursue policies that will restore the growth momentum. India will have to undertake governance reform at home and ensure a supportive external environment to sustain its rise as a 'free market democracy |
| Date: | 27 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 76 : Financial Sector De-regulation in Emerging Asia: Focus on Foreign Bank Entry |
| Author/s: | Sasidaran Gopalan and Ramkishen S. Rajan |
| Abstract: | Over the last decade, many emerging Asian economies have been liberalising their financial sectors, including opening up their banking systems to foreign competition. This paper examines the extent of de jure and de facto changes in policies in selected emerging Asian economies on the introduction of greater foreign competition. For reasons of data availability, the focus of this paper is limited to selected emerging Asian economies, viz. India, China, Indonesia, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines. |
| Date: | 22 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 75 : Method in the Dragon’s Moods: Why China behaves as it does |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | This paper argues that, despite changing global scenarios, there is a consistency in how the People’s Republic of China sees and behaves vis-à-vis the outside world. Through its inexorable ‘rise’ in contemporary times it has been making nuanced adjustments of its tactical postures within the parameters of broad and abiding strategic goals |
| Date: | 21 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 74 : Rescuing the Doha Development Round The Role of India and China in Multilateral Trade Governance |
| Author/s: | Suparna Karmakar |
| Abstract: | The World Trade Organization (WTO), with a much enlarged membership, has functioned very differently from its predecessor, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT). The old power centres within the multilateral trade regime have been joined by new power centres, especially from the emerging economies. The developing and the least-developed members are acting in coalitions to ensure that WTO deals meet their expectations and development concerns; however, they have not had similar success in agenda-setting yet. This paper examines the changing contours of the engagement of developing countries in the global trade regime, with special reference to the important role India and China can play in the 21st century WTO system of trade governance. It argues that emerging developing countries today need to pick up the leadership mantle and play a constructive role in furthering the cause of multilateral trade integration. This will be in the larger interests of protecting their international market access as well as the much needed domestic reforms. The paper tries to identify the roles and responsibilities of emerging hegemonic powers like India and China in the successful conclusion of the Doha Round. |
| Date: | 13 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 73 : The Making of Indian Foreign Policy: The Role of Scholarship and Public Opinion1 |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to explore the relationship between international relations scholarship, Indian public opinion and foreign policy making in India. The paper assumes that all large nations, democratic or otherwise, need solid domestic political support for the effective pursuit of interests abroad. The internal support for the conduct of external relations rests on the existence of an ‘establishment’ that sets the broad terms for the ‘mainstream’ discourse on foreign policy; facilitates continuous and productive interaction between the bureaucracies making the foreign policy, the academia that expands and reproduces knowledge and expertise on the subject, the media, and the political classes; rationalises external policies as well as promotes alternatives to them; and defines and redefines national political consensus on foreign policy amidst changing circumstances and unexpected opportunities. The need for such an establishment is far more critical in large democracies, where the governments must continuously cope with volatile public perceptions and the imperatives of popular legitimation. |
| Date: | 13 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 72 : From National Security State to Human Security: The Challenge of Winning the Peace in Sri Lanka |
| Author/s: | Darini Rajasingham Senanayake |
| Abstract: | Having won the three decade-long war against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), the Sri Lankan government faces a historic opportunity and challenge ÔÇô to win the peace in Sri Lanka. The LTTE was a symptom of a problem that had roots in the history of post-colonial state-building on the island. The rise of Sinhala Buddhist majoritarianism was accompanied by the marginalisation of the Tamil, Muslim and Eurasian (or Burgher) minorities, and it was hence that the LTTE began the struggle for a separate state for the Tamils. However, it morphed into a war machine. The issue of marginalisation of the minorities remains to be addressed. |
| Date: | 9 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 71 : Maritime Power: India and China turn to Mahan |
| Author/s: | Chilamkuri Raja Mohan |
| Abstract: | A recent Western visitor to a major annual security conclave in Singapore appeared utterly surprised at the extraordinary influence of the American theorist of sea power, Alfred Thayer Mahan. Most western naval analysts do acknowledge the huge influence of Mahan on the evolution of naval thinking across the advanced world from the turn of the 20th century to its early decades. Most Western analysts also believe that Mahan, once described as the evangelist of sea power, is now passé. The sense of absolute military superiority in the United States and the West during the recent decades has tended to reinforce the proposition that the new wave of economic globalisation has made the geopolitics of the kind espoused by Mahan as being largely irrelevant to the ordering of the modern world. No wonder then that the Western observer was recoiling at the “unwelcome” comeback of Mahan’s conceptions of sea power and geopolitics in Asia.3 The observer argues that while the understanding of sea power and its uses has evolved in the advanced societies since the days of Mahan at the turn of the 20th century, he “is now hugely admired in Asia’s two most populous powers. For China’s strategic planners, securing sea lanes against hostile powers has become perhaps the chief preoccupation. For India’s, it is the growth of China’s presence in its backyard, in and around the Indian Ocean. In both countries Mahan is pressed into service in one planning paper after the next”. |
| Date: | 7 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 70 : The 2009 General Elections in India: An Analysis |
| Author/s: | Paranjoy Guha Thakurta |
| Abstract: | The fifteenth general elections to the Lower House of India's Parliament (Lok Sabha) were held in five phases spread over a month in April and May 2009, with its outcome declared on 16 May 2009. The elections witnessed the return of the incumbent Indian National Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) coalition to power in New Delhi for a second consecutive term. |
| Date: | 3 July 2009 |
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| Title: | 69 : Monetary and Financial Cooperation in Asia: Making Sense Out of the CMI, CMIM, ABF, ABMI and ACU Alphabet Soup |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan |
| Abstract: | Ever since the currency crisis of 1997-98, there has been a great deal of interest in enhancing regional economic cooperation in Asia. It is important to keep in mind that economic regionalism is multidimensional nature. As noted by Kuroda (2005), economic regionalism can be broadly divided into four categories, viz. trade and investment; monetary and financial; infrastructure development and related software; and cross-border public goods (cooperation with regard to contagious diseases such as avian flu, SARS and swine flu, as well cross-border pollution such as the haze fires in Indonesia which affected many of its Southeast Asian neighbours). This paper concentrates on the issue of de jure monetary and financial regionalism in Asia. In other words, the focus here is on policy initiatives underway in Asia to enhance monetary and financial regionalism and the analytical bases for these initiatives, rather than on examining the actual level of financial and monetary links that already exists (which may or may not have been facilitated via regional policy mechanisms). A companion paper examines the de facto financial linkages within selected Asian economies (see Keil, Rajan and Willett, 2009). |
| Date: | 18 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 68 : The Urdu Press in India and Pakistan – A Comparison |
| Author/s: | Tridivesh Singh Maini |
| Abstract: | Amongst the key binding factors between India and Pakistan, the Urdu language emerges as a significant one. While it is the national language of Pakistan, in India too, the generation of pre-partition individuals is most at home with the Urdu language. Interestingly, the current Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh, does not know the Devanagari script and is conversant in Urdu. The same can be said of former Prime Minister, I. K. Gujral, who was more comfortable in Urdu. In fact, he was part of a committee to look into the promotion of the Urdu language in India. It would be pertinent to mention here that the Urdu language also played a crucial role in India's freedom struggle. |
| Date: | 17 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 67 : Can Indian Think Tanks and Research Institutions Cope with the Rising Demand for Foreign and Security Policy Research? |
| Author/s: | Sanjaya Baru |
| Abstract: | India's relations with the rest of the world are increasingly being shaped by its economic and business interests.3 While the state remains the primary and decisive player in the shaping and articulation of Indian foreign policy, India's international relations are no longer constrained by government-to-government relations. Business and civil society engagement are in fact forcing the government to re-examine its own priorities and prejudices |
| Date: | 16 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 66 : Outward Foreign Direct Investment from India: Trends, Determinants and Implications1 |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan |
| Abstract: | While India has become an attractive destination for foreign capital, the country is also becoming a significant source of outflows. Many Indian enterprises view outward investments as an important dimension of their corporate strategies. The paper presents some data on the magnitude and composition of Indian outward foreign direct investment (FDI). It will also discuss the rationale for and the empirical determinants of overseas acquisitions by Indian companies. It will conclude with a broader discussion of the impact of the global rise of Indian companies on the Indian economy. |
| Date: | 15 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 65 : Installing UPA-II: Balancing Interests and Affiliations |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Anyone hardly expected a clear verdict in India’s parliamentary elections of 2009. Analysts and psephologists predicted a hung parliament with the two dominant coalitions of the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) , led by the Congress Party, and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) , led by the Bhar atiya Janata Party (BJP) , winning almost a similar number of seats but still far fr om an absolute majority. It was argued that , in a hung parliament, government formation would be very complex as the two parties will have to poach parties from the “Third” and the “Fourth” fronts. The “Third Front” was mobili sed by the Left taking, beside s others, former NDA coalition partners such as Telegu Desham Party (TDP), led by Chandrababu Naidu of Andhra Pradesh; the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagum (AIADMK) , led by Jayalalitha from Tamil Nadu ; and the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) , led by Navin Pa tnaik from Orissa. This group wanted to form a non -Congress , non- BJP government. The “Fourth Front” comprised former UPA partners, the Rastriya Janata Dal (RJD) of Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) of Bhola Paswan and the Socialist Party (SP ) of Mulayam Singh Yadav. They continued to claim affiliation with the UPA, though they had fallen apart from the Congress on the distribution of seats to be contested. They wanted to contest a larger number of seats on their own so as to strengthen their position in the post -election bargain within the UPA. |
| Date: | 11 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 64 : Globalisation and South Asian Insurgencies: With Special Reference to the Tamil Tigers and the Nepal Maoists |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Conceptually, globalisation is a process that has been evolving and unfolding itself for centuries. The spice trade, the Silk Road, colonialism and unregulated migration of people from one country to another were all parts of its various stages. However, globalisation, as is understood in the contemporary international relations studies, is only two decades old or even less. South Asian insurgencies, in this sense, are older than the emergence of globalisation as the buzzword in contemporary international politics and studies. |
| Date: | 10 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 63 : The Roots of Bangladeshi National Identity: Their Impact on State Behaviour |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The growth of the consciousness of the Bengali Muslims as a distinct social and political entity that found fruition in their carving out for themselves a separate and sovereign state in 1971 was the product of a historical evolution over a period of two centuries. Their past experience is important in as much as it continues to condition their external behaviour pattern even in contemporary times. |
| Date: | 10 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 62 : Reshaping of the Global Economy: The Dawn of the Asian Century? |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | This is a bad time for the world economy and it is an even worse time for the western financial system. However, this is a good time to speculate about the future shape of the global economic system and also how Asia may influence the shape of things to come. Is the current crisis a mere interruption in the process of global economic change that began a decade and a half ago when, with the process of globalisation exerting its force, the structure of production and the structure of international trade began to change? These changes propelled some large emerging markets, most of them in Asia, to the centre of the global economic stage. Or are we seeing, as some analysts have maintained, a change that will inevitably result in directing the global economy towards the direction it was taking before the current crisis began to take its toll? Some analysts have said that the “rise of the rest” – Fareed Zakaria’s phrase3 – may not, after all, actually be a rise but a temporary phase in the evolution of the global economy. They believe that the opportunities offered by globalisation will become constrained as the world’s rich countries make adjustments to the crisis that started in 2007 and is likely to turn the corner in 2010.4 I happen to agree with Zakaria |
| Date: | 9 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 61 : South Asia: Overcoming the Past, Meeting the Challenges of the Present and Availing the Opportunities of the Future |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki1 |
| Abstract: | This paper is the introductory chapter of a forthcoming book on the proposed title "Can Regionalism work for South Asia?" The book is a collection of essays in which individual pieces stand alone as contributions to the ongoing debate on South Asia's changing position in the global economy and in the evolving international political order. However, the essays can be read together as a book since one set of themes - an overall logic - constructs a case for how South Asia could take advantage of the rapid changes in the global economic, social and political systems. However, for that to happen, the countries in the region will have to discard the weight of history and work together as a region rather than as individual countries pursuing their separate interests. |
| Date: | 9 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 60 : India’s Economic Engagement with Southeast Asia: Progress and Challenges |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | The dynamics of India's economic engagement with Southeast Asia must be comprehended in the light of the contrasts existing in both India and the Southeast Asian region. India's states differ widely in demographic features, markets and natural resource endowments. Their populations vary from 60,000 (Lakshadweep) to 191 million (Uttar Pradesh). Per capita incomes also show fairly high dispersion, ranging from US$157 to US$1,733.3 Similarly, Southeast Asia comprises a diverse group of economies with different economic structures and levels of development. While the populations in these economies range from as low as 396,000 to 225 million, per capita incomes vary from US$215.60 to US$35,206.4 |
| Date: | 4 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 59 : The Tibetan ‘Uprising’ 2008: India’s Response |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | Tibet is a critical issue in the complexity of Sino-Indian relations. The criticality of this issue arises not only from the geo-strategic location of Tibet between China and India3 but also from the historical context of evolving Sino-Tibetan relations, and the humanitarian and cultural dimensions of this relationship. The criticality of Tibet’s link with China’s far-flung and restive western region of Xinjiang and the unresolved nature of Sino-Indian border make Tibet a potential flashpoint of conflict between India and China, just as Taiwan is a potential flashpoint in China’s conflict with the United States in the South China Sea. |
| Date: | 1 June 2009 |
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| Title: | 58 : The New Democratic Wave and Regional Cooperation in South Asia |
| Author/s: | S. D. Muni |
| Abstract: | The South Asian region has experienced a democratic resurgence in the recent past. This has happened when countries in Africa and Asia have suffered a setback. According to the latest Freedom House Annual Report (2008), 34 countries performed poorly on the indicators of freedom and only 14 countries showed an improvement compared to 2007 (The National, 15 January 2009).3 West Asia and North Africa remained stagnant whereas sub-Saharan Africa and Central Asia suffered setbacks. If one looks at Southeast Asia, Myanmar continues to frustrate the democratic aspirations of the people and, even in Thailand, political developments have not been conducive to a healthy and sustained growth of democracy. |
| Date: | 19 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 57 : India and Pakistan – The Economic Stand-Off |
| Author/s: | Sajjad Ashraf |
| Abstract: | Beginning as a single economic entity, Pakistan and India have drifted apart since their independence in 1947. The resumption of normal economic relations is now dependent upon the easing of the political stand-off between the two countries. Even though the leadership of both countries speaks of normalisation, the conditions attached by each are seemingly impossible to meet. And yet, there is a slow movement towards restoring direct trade links between the two countries. In Pakistan especially, politically-motivated opposition to the resumption of economic relations with India is particularly strong. In addition, Pakistani business houses used to making money based on an inefficient industry thwart the flow of cheaper goods from India. Consumers suffer. Following the laws of business and necessity, smuggling and third-party trade between Pakistan and India still makes up a substantial part of the two-way trade. The state loses revenue. |
| Date: | 18 May 2009 |
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| Title: | 56 : Prospects for Afghanistan-Pakistan Relations |
| Author/s: | Shakti Sinha |
| Abstract: | Afghanistan-Pakistan relations and their implications for the wider world have been extremely complicated, much more than what should be normal bilateral relations between two neighbours. Relationships between any two countries, not just neighbours, are multifaceted but rarely are they so enmeshed as to make a bowl of spaghetti look simple. Relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan have been impacted by developments outside their borders and held hostage to developments spilling across their borders. Increasingly, Afghanistan has been at the receiving end, not unusual for an underdeveloped state with a weaker economy. |
| Date: | 21 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 55 : State Building and Stabilisation in Afghanistan – Design Constraints to Effectiveness |
| Author/s: | Shakti Sinha |
| Abstract: | Afghanistan’s failure to stabilise continues to trouble Afghans and non-Afghans alike, since the consequences of earlier efforts led to unimaginable consequences. Researchers of many conflict-ridden societies cite the failure to govern as being ‘one of the main reasons for the spread of alienation, militancy and insurgency’, and identify the failure to govern to include the failure to provide basic facilities. This paper takes a look at the structure of the government that has emerged in post-Taliban Afghanistan, specifically whether its essential feature, a strong unitary state rooted in an executive presidency and a weak legislature with its unique electoral system, is conducive to establishing peace, stability and inclusive governance in the country. This would be examined with reference to the state- and nation-building experiences of modern Afghanistan, defined as the state which emerged after the second Afghan War (1878-1880), and the effect of the prolonged conflict over the past three decades. The impact of foreign interference, a lot of which has been direct [Russian invasion, Pakistani support for the Mujahideen in the 1980s and the creation of the Taliban later, United Nations’ (UN)-sanctioned United States (US)-led effort that overthrew the Taliban and continuing today] and the Afghan reactions to these interferences has had a major impact on the internal dynamics of governance as well as on the credibility of the state, not easily captured in formal structures.3 |
| Date: | 15 April 2009 |
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| Title: | 54 : Singapore’s Trade with China, Japan and India: Similarities and Contrasts |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit and Sasidaran Gopalan |
| Abstract: | Cross-border trade within Asia as well as with the rest of the world has been instrumental behind the emergence of the Asian region as the locus of global economic activity. Within Asia, Emerging Asia, comprising the economies of China, India, Hong Kong SAR, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, has been the most prominent trade entity. The share of Emerging Asia's trade in world trade has increased from 21 percent in 1990 to 34 percent in 2006, with Emerging Asia contributing around 40 percent of the total increase in world trade during the period. |
| Date: | 16 March 2009 |
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