| Title: | 118 : Wto And Rtas: How The ‘spaghetti-bowl’ Impacts On Global ‘trade-meal’ |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The WTO generates more passions in debates or discussions on it than most other international organi s ations. This is largely because, more than most other bodies , it is concerned with the daily bread and butter issues affecting the common man. It is also because m any do not see it as very different from the ‘rich man’s club’ it replaced, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade ( GATT ) . In reality, however, it is different , both in terms of mandates and membership. It is based on certain principles championing fre e - trade, and it lays down agreed rules for trade in goods and services. It has also acknowledged the role of ‘development’ in fostering trade, a nd the ‘ uneven playing field’ that many members confront. While it was meant to enforce universal norms, over ti me , a large number of RTAs and cross - regional Free Trade Agreements ( FTAs) have been threatening to erode its effectiveness. This ‘spaghetti’ or ‘noodle - bowl’ phenomenon is receiving impetus from the impasse created in the current ‘Doha Round’ of Trade Ne gotiations. Asian RTAs are , however, more politically - driven, and therefore should be seen as WTO - consistent. In fact , concepts such as the massive FTA of the Asia - Pacific, to be realized by 2020 as discussed at the APEC Summit in Yokohama in November 2010 , will be a powerful factor in stabilizing Trans - Pacific political and strategic relations. As of now, they are not seen as threatening ‘core ’ WTO principles , though a modicum of their erosion is inevitable, and WTO rules allow for such regional FTAs , unde r certain conditions. Indeed, th ey are helping the growth o f an Asian consciousness and integration at a time when the contin ent is being seen on the ‘rise’, leading perhaps someday to the fruition of the concept of an ‘Asian Home’ |
| Date: | 12 December 2010 |
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| Title: | 117 : Mission, Money and Machinery |
| Author/s: | Robin Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | This paper provides readers with the context for the remarkable and sustained expansion of India's daily newspaper industry since the 1980s and the acceleration of that expansion in the twenty-first century at a time when daily print journalism in much of the world has declined. Covering a hundred years of the daily newspaper industry, the paper focuses on three themes: the ideas and motivations of the people who create newspapers, the financing of those newspapers and the technology through which they operate. The time-frame divides itself into four periods, each with identifiable and significant characteristics. In the first (1900 to 1920), from the time of the Viceroy, Lord Curzon to the ascendancy of M. K. Gandhi, English-owned newspapers slowly introduced industrial practices and journalistic conventions as they had evolved in Britain. A few Indian-owned English-language newspapers took up some of these innovations, but no Indianlanguage newspapers adopted such practices. Profit and ideology co-existed, but the largest and most influential (mostly British-owned) papers were more concerned with profit than preaching. |
| Date: | 25 November 2010 |
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| Title: | 116: Structure and Agency in the Making of Indian Foreign Policy |
| Author/s: | Sumit Ganguly |
| Abstract: | India's foreign policy since independence has evolved in three distinct phas es. In the first phase, which lasted until 1964, it was mostly ideational. Between 1964 and 1990, it was a peculiar amalgam of ideational rhetoric and increasingly Realist behaviour . Since the end of the Cold War, it has all but embraced Realist premises with occasional rhetor ical nods toward its ideational past. This paper traces the source s of these changes and attributes them to an interaction of structure and agency. |
| Date: | 21 November 2010 |
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| Title: | 115 : The Threat of the Geeky Goonda: India’s Electronic Voting Machines |
| Author/s: | Robin Jeffrey |
| Abstract: | The paper examines the controversy over the reliability of India’s Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Since the national elections of 2009, there have been allegations that the 1.4 million small stand-alone EVMs can be – and according to some protagonists, have been – doctored or rigged to allow election results to be falsified. The paper outlines the charges and describes the formal procedures under which the EVMs have operated for more than 10 years. It concludes that there is no convincing evidence that the machines have been rigged in India. It points out that any comparison with the networked, centralised electronic voting systems of the United States (US) and Europe, which have fallen into disfavour, are inappropriate. However, it is clear that if technically skilled people were to have ready and widespread access to EVMs, they could introduce external components that would enable the machines to be manipulated. Such manipulation would require large numbers of trained and reasonably adept conspirators who would have to escape the notice of or suborn both election officials and agents of rival parties. This is an improbable scenario. The Election Commission of India (ECI) has not however, met the allegations as ably and openly as it might. The Commission should not only be constantly testing, monitoring and improving existing EVMs, but also researching and costing methods that could add a paper trail to the current paperless process that could be used to verify election results. |
| Date: | 12 October 2010 |
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| Title: | 114: India and China: Emerging Dynamics and Regional Security Perspectives |
| Author/s: | Rajshree Jetly |
| Abstract: | India and China, both heirs to ancient civili sations, have emerged today as the two most powerful and influential Asian nations in terms of their economic capab ilities and geopolitical standing. The two erstwhile adversaries have rec ognised the need for casting off the baggage of history and residual mist rust and have embarked on the pa th of building a new pragmatic partnership. However, despite th e recognition that coope ration may be in their mutual interest, this will be easier said than done. Sino-Indi an relations have always been complex with multilayered regional and global dimensions, which have complicated their bilateral relationship. Even as India and China have traversed a long road from being friends to adversaries to pragmatic partners, a factor which has been constant in the conduct of their affairs, is the fact that they are neighbours and geopoliti cal rivals who have as much to gain from each other as to fear from the other. |
| Date: | 29 September 2010 |
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| Title: | 113 : From ‘Asia’ To ‘Asia-Pacific’: Indian Political Elites And Changing Conceptions Of India’s Regional Spaces |
| Author/s: | Sinderpal Singh |
| Abstract: | Existing discussions of regionalism in Asia reveal diverse ideas of Asia’s composition, with a lack of agreement about which states should be included/excluded in representations of ‘Asia’. This paper seeks to engage the debate by looking at the case of Indian political elites and their efforts to frame India’s own regional space within these larger questions on regional spaces in ‘Asia’ and the ‘Asia-Pacific’. It aims to locate contemporary representations of India’s regional space in a comparative historical framework by looking at India’s earlier tryst with different regionalist projects like the Asian Relations Conference (ARC), New Delhi, in 1947 and the Afro-Asian Conference, Bandung, in 1955. It would be argued that such similarities/differences in Indian representations of its regional space over time can be related to how Indian political elites have sought to negotiate Indian state identity, and as a result, India’s role beyond its own borders from the time of its independence in 1947. |
| Date: | 28 September 2010 |
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| Title: | 112 : The 18th Amendment: Pakistan’s Constitution Redesigned |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | In the midst of all the economic and political turmoil in the country, or perhaps because of it, Pakistan’s political forces of many different colours and ideologies have come together to reshape the 1973 constitution and create a new political order. The constitution was disfigured by a number of amendments inserted into it by military leaders who wanted to create a much more centralised structure than was permitted by the available constitutional framework. The end result was to give the country a hybrid system of governance that operated a presidential system within the guise of a parliamentary structure. There were problems with the system thus created. It had a president at the apex who was responsible to no one other than himself (or perhaps to the army high command) and provinces with only small amounts of authority. There was a consensus among the political forces that the system had to be changed. This was done with the adoption of the 18th amendment to the constitution on 19 April 2010. This was aimed at achieving the following two objectives. Firstly, to revert executive authority to the prime minister and his cabinet and hold them accountable to parliament. Secondly, to allow much greater autonomy to the provinces. This paper discusses how this amendment was processed and how its content will change the system of governance. |
| Date: | 3 September 2010 |
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| Title: | 111 : The Maoist Insurgency of Nepal: Origin and Evolution |
| Author/s: | S.D. MUNI |
| Abstract: | Nepalese revolutions, both at the apex and the grassroots, have been characterised by violence. The paper examines the rise of Maoism in Nepal, which was influenced by India’s Naxal movement of the 1960s. In Nepal’s eastern Terai region of Jhapa, sections of communists experimented with the Maoist concept of ‘people’s war’ by unsuccessfully taking up arms in May 1971. The end of the cultural revolution and the demise of Mao Tse-tung resulted in a split between the Maoists, echoes of which can still be heard. Although the decade long ‘people’s war’ fought by the Maoists brought about the downfall of the monarchy in 2006, a clear vision for making their revolution a success still eludes them. The paper examines factors that have fuelled the Maoist insurgency, including poverty, illiteracy, scarce economic opportunities and increasing economic disparities. |
| Date: | 28 July 2010 |
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| Title: | 110 : South Asia’s Economic Future with or without Economic Integration |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | South Asia has reached the point in its economic and political development from where it can make sustained and steady progress. This will help the region achieve the rates of economic growth that have brought about fundamental changes in the eastern part of Asia. For that to occur, intra-regional trade needs to play a significant role. This paper uses a simple econometric model to estimate the benefits that can accrue to the countries in the region if more trade were directed towards Asian destinations, in particular towards South Asia. |
| Date: | 14 July 2010 |
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| Title: | 109 : The Naxalite/Maoist Movement in India: A Review of Recent Literature |
| Author/s: | John Harriss |
| Abstract: | This paper reviews recent writing by and about India's Maoists, much of it from the pages of the Economic and Political Weekly, which has been the most important forum for informed reporting and commentary. An account is given of the recent history of the Naxalite/Maoist Movement, and of the ideology and tactics of the Communist Party of India (Maoist). Particular attention is paid to the findings, both of the few social scientists who have undertaken field studies and human rights activists who have had direct contact both with party cadres and village people amongst whom they move. These illuminate the relationships between the revolutionary movement and the people of those areas in which the Maoists have a strong presence |
| Date: | 8 July 2010 |
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| Title: | 108 : The Global Governance Group (‘3G’) and Singaporean Leadership: Can Small be Significant? |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | Since the modern state system came into existence following the Treaty of Westphalia in 1648, nations have resorted to groupings among themselves seeking accretion of strength and power. This has led to conflicts through the centuries culminating in the two cataclysmic World Wars in the twentieth century. However, the creation of the ‘mother of all groupings’, the United Nations (UN) in 1946 has possibly averted, at least to date, another major manmade global disaster. |
| Date: | 19 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 107 : Asia in the ‘Catch-Up’ Game: Part 2 |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Two developments, the first decades old and the second very recent, have reshaped and are reshaping the global economic landscape. The first was the process of globalisation that reduced the distance among different economies in the world, not in the physical sense, but in the sense of easy flow of capital, trade, information and technology. Globalisation has produced a global economy, the like of which the world has never known and the process will continue to move forward the global economy.3 The future course of the world economy is one of the main issues addressed in the study. The second development was what economists and financial experts call the Great Recession of 2008-09 to distinguish it from the Great Depression that took such a heavy toll in the 1930s. What was „great‟ about this particular downturn in economic activity was that its origins were not in the normal working of the large economies that produce trade cycles with some frequency. |
| Date: | 10 May 2010 |
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| Title: | 106 : Asia in the ‘Catch-Up’ Game |
| Author/s: | Shahid Javed Burki |
| Abstract: | Two developments, the first decades old and the second very recent, have reshaped and are re-shaping the global economic landscape. The first was the process of globalisation that reduced the distance among different economies in the world, not in the physical sense, but in the sense of easy flow of capital, trade, information and technology. Globalisation has produced a global economy the like of which the world has never known, and the process will continue to move forward the global economy.3 1 This is a revised version of an earlier draft which was discussed at an ISAS seminar, “Asia in the Catch-Up Game” held on 9 March 2010. Several helpful comments and suggestions made by participants at the seminar have been incorporated in this version. The future course of the world economy is one of the main issues addressed in the study. The second development was what economists and financial experts call the Great Recession of 2007-09 to distinguish it from the Great Depression that took such a heavy toll in the 1930s. What was ‘great’ about this particular downturn in economic activity was that its origins were not in the normal working of the large economies that produce trade |
| Date: | 9 April 2010 |
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| Title: | 105 : Bangladesh-China: An Emerging Equation in Asian Diplomatic Calculations |
| Author/s: | Iftekhar Ahmed Chowdhury |
| Abstract: | The paper traces the evolution of Bangladesh-China relations over time and seeks to demonstrate that it symbolises an emerging equation in Asia's diplomatic calculations. These are the fruition of a consistent pattern in China's policy, entailing its pursuit to secure an ally in the South Asian region. They also pertain to the imperatives driving the forging of this alliance of a geographically smaller and strategically weaker, yet very active and potentially important, international actor, Bangladesh, seeking to buttress its sense of 'reinsurance' with regard to its twin goals of security and development |
| Date: | 31 March 2010 |
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| Title: | 104 : India’s International Reserves: How Large and How Diversified? |
| Author/s: | Ramkishen S. Rajan and Sasidaran Gopalan |
| Abstract: | Asymmetric foreign exchange intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has resulted in a sustained accretion of India's foreign exchange reserves. The reserve buildup in India has certainly been impressive, rising from around US$5-6 million in 1991, to nearly US$300 billion in mid 2008. In addition to addressing the issues of reserve adequacy, this paper examines the forms the reserves have taken (asset and currency composition), and the extent to which India's reserve holdings are diversified. The issue of reserve adequacy was made apparent during the 1990s and early 2000 when rapid reserve depletion became a defining and determining feature of the series of currency crises that hit emerging economies. There are several broad measures of reserve adequacy that are used in literature, which despite any theoretical backing, are useful broad benchmarks of a country's ability to manage a balance of payments shock. In order to assess the adequacy of India's stock of international reserves, the paper considers a few such standard measures such as the ratio of reserves-to-GDP, reserves-to-imports, reserves-to-short-term external debt and reserves-to-broad money (M2) and finds that India's reserve stock is more than adequate, placing them in a much better position than many other emerging economies. |
| Date: | 3 March 2010 |
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