| Title: | 53 : India and the World – Economics and Politics of the Manmohan Singh Doctrine in Foreign Policy |
| Author/s: | Sanjaya Baru |
| Abstract: | Apart from the diplomacy around the negotiation of the civil nuclear energy cooperation agreement between India, the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG), and the United States, the other foreign policy pre-occupations of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh have been the diplomacy associated with the building of an East Asian Community; the revitalisation of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), with a focus on normalising relations with Pakistan; and increased South-South cooperation, with a focus on development cooperation in Africa. Economic issues have been at the core of each of these initiatives. Singh's primary objective has been to improve the global and regional environment for sustaining India's growth process and overall development. |
| Date: | 14 November 2008 |
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| Title: | 52 : Impact of Trade Liberalisation on the Efficiency of Textile Firms in India |
| Author/s: | Sasidaran G. and Shanmugam K. R |
| Abstract: | This study attempts to empirically investigate the implications of unshackling of the global textile trade, following the complete phasing out of the Multi-Fibre Agreement (MFA) in 2005, on the efficiency of firms operating in the Indian textiles industry. By employing the Stochastic Coefficients Frontier Approach, it estimates the overall and input specific efficiency values for 215 sample firms during 1993-94 to 2005-06. Results of the study show that the average efficiency declined over the years, indicating the presence of inefficiency in using inputs. We argue that the Indian textile firms failed to utilise their inputs efficiently during the phase of liberalisation which, if done, would have helped them to withstand and overcome the intense competition from other players like China. Given that there is a paucity of empirical studies dealing with efficiency of the Indian textile industry in the light of phasing out of the MFA, this study seeks to fill such gaps in the available literature. |
| Date: | 9 October 2008 |
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| Title: | 51 : Mineral Fuel and Oil Trade between India and Singapore: Trends and Issues |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | Bilateral merchandise trade between India and Singapore is growing at a robust pace. During the period 2003 to 2007, bilateral trade grew at an annual average rate of 32.5 percent. There are several factors driving this rapid increase in trade. These include a pick-up in the trend rate of growth of IndiaÔÇÖs gross domestic product and high import demand from a buoyant Indian industry, deeper penetration of Indian exports in Singapore market2 and an enabling trade framework provided by the Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). |
| Date: | 9 October 2008 |
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| Title: | 50 : Coalition Politics in India: Types, Duration, Theory and Comparison |
| Author/s: | E. Sridharan |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to compare and analyse the distribution of types, and the relationship between types and duration, of coalition and/or minority governments in India with those in long-standing democracies against the findings of the theoretical and comparative literature on coalition governments. Written in the context of (a) six consecutive hung parliaments since 1989, and the emergence since 1996 of very large coalitions of 9-12 parties; (b) the extreme paucity of systematic scholarly work on coalition politics in India, the focus of this paper is on the limited issue of coalition government types and duration, in comparative perspective.1 I also examine the use of an alternative definition of a coalition government that might be more meaningful in understanding party behaviour in the Indian context, and perhaps other large-coalition contexts. |
| Date: | 23 September 2008 |
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| Title: | 49 : The Political Economy of the Middle Classes in Liberalising India |
| Author/s: | E. Sridharan |
| Abstract: | This paper is an update with new data to analyse the composition of the middle classes in India in the middle of the first decade of the twenty-first century, building on an earlier paper that was based on 1998-99 data, to understand the political sociology of economic liberalisation in India; specifically, to analyse whether the middle class, on balance, would support economic liberalisation, or support some policies in the process while tending to resist others, and why.1 The hypothesis is that the middle class is not straightforwardly a support base for economic liberalisation as often assumed, but that the larger the public employee and subsidised farmer component of the middle class, however defined, the more resistant it will be to at least some facets of economic liberalisation such as privatisation and de-subsidisation. |
| Date: | 22 September 2008 |
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| Title: | 48 : Understanding India’s Regional Initiatives within Asia |
| Author/s: | Rupa Chanda and Sasidaran G |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, most economies in the world have entered into various kinds of regional and bilateral agreements. These include free trade agreements, preferential trade agreements, economic cooperation and economic partnership agreements, among others, and are between countries with similar as well as vastly different levels of development, and both within and across regions. Since 1995, the number of notifications of such Preferential Trading Agreements (PTAs)2 to the World Trade Organization (WTO) has proliferated with the number exceeding 220 in 2005.3 However, the number of PTAs that have not been reported to the WTO is even larger. Of those that have been notified, a total of 185 agreements were concluded between 2000 and 2007 alone, or just under half the total number of agreements that were concluded during the entire twentieth century, indicative of the spurt that has been witnessed in regional integration in recent years |
| Date: | 15 August 2008 |
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| Title: | 47 : Justice Delivery in India – A Snapshot of Problems and Reforms |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | In attaining higher gross domestic product growth rates, legal reforms are now recognised as a critical ingredient. The Indian legal infrastructure needed reforms in any case, even if the post-1991 cycle of economic reforms had not occurred. However, liberalisation has provided an additional trigger. The word “law” has various interpretations. Consequently, the expression legal reform also needs to be pinned down. There are three layers in legal reform. First, there is an element of statutory law reform and there are three clear elements to statutory law reform – weeding out old and dysfunctional elements in legislation, unification and harmonization, and reducing state intervention. Second, legal reform has to have an administrative law reform component, meaning the subordinate legislation in the form of rules, orders, regulations and instructions from ministries and government departments. Often, constraints to efficient decision-making come about through administrative law rather than through statutory law and bribery and rent-seeking are fallouts. Finally, the third element of legal reform is what may be called judicial reforms, though faster dispute resolution and contract enforcement are not exclusively judicial issues. |
| Date: | 31 July 2008 |
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| Title: | 46 : India-singapore Trade Relations |
| Author/s: | Amitendu Palit |
| Abstract: | Singapore is India's fourth largest export market and the country's biggest trade partner among the Association of Southeast Asian (ASEAN) states.2 The ASEAN countries account for 9.5 percent of India's total commodity exports. Within ASEAN, Singapore alone absorbs 4.5 percent of India's exports. On the other hand, Singapore is India's 10th largest source of imports. At present, it accounts for 3.27 percent of India's total commodity imports |
| Date: | 16 June 2008 |
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| Title: | 45 : India’s Attempts at Regional Integration with South Asia and East Asia |
| Author/s: | Bibek Debroy |
| Abstract: | We begin this introductory section with a brief sketch of the South Asian background. The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the largest regional organisation in the world, with India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Maldives, Bhutan and Afghanistan (since 13 November 2005) as members, and with China,3 Japan, South Korea and the European Union granted observer status and distant prospects of Iran eventually becoming a member.4 The present eight member states have5 a combined population of 1.47 billion, compared to the world population of 6.56 billion in 2005. Had the SAARC been counted as a single political entity, it would have been the largest entity in the world, judged according to the population criterion. India with 1.12 billion (17.07 percent of world population), Pakistan with 165.8 million (2.53 percent of world population) and Bangladesh with 148.96 million (2.27 percent of world population) are among the ten most populous countries in the world. Interestingly, in 1907, the global population was estimated to be 1.7 billion and British India (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar)6 chipped in with 264 to 314 million. To come back to the point, the SAARC region is the 7th largest land area in the world. National gross domestic products (GDP) are in home currencies and, for comparison purposes, have to be converted into a common currency, the typical numeraire being the United States dollar. This conversion can be done using the official exchange rate7 or purchasing power parity (PPP), the latter incorporating the idea that non-tradeables like services are relatively cheaper in developing countries and relatively more expensive in developed countries and conversions must take this into account for a fair comparison to be made. In PPP terms, the overall SAARC GDP was US$4,074 billion in 2005, making the SAARC the third largest economic entity in the world, after the United States and China |
| Date: | 26 May 2008 |
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| Title: | 44 : Financing Rural Renewable Energy: A Comparison between China and India |
| Author/s: | Huang Liming |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the current status of rural renewable energy in China and India, develops and employs an analysis framework to study the environment, channels, instruments and innovative mechanisms of financing rural renewable energy in China and India, and makes a primary comparison. |
| Date: | 23 May 2008 |
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| Title: | 43 : Trade, Restructuring and Labour: A Study of the Textile and Apparel Industry in India |
| Author/s: | K.V. Ramaswamy |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of trade liberalisation and industrial restructuring on labour in India's textile and apparel industry. India has liberalised its trade policy and industrial regulations since 1991. This reform process has had industry-specific features that are often overlooked. They are particularly striking as in the case the textile and apparel industry. This industry, by its sheer size, in terms of employment, had always occupied an important place in the state policy that shaped its structure and in turn its performance over the years. What are the salient features of reform policies with respect to the textile and apparel industry? What are the features of the 'restructuring' that has taken place in the reform years? How this restructuring has impacted the local labour markets? What types of jobs have been created? Which segment of the textiles and apparel industry have prospered and benefited workers at the same time? |
| Date: | 8 May 2008 |
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| Title: | 42 : Levels and Composition of Public Social and Economic Expenditures in India, 1950-51 to 2005-06 |
| Author/s: | R. Ramakumar |
| Abstract: | This paper is concerned with analysing changes in the levels and composition of spending by the state in India on the social and economic sectors. This analysis is undertaken for the Central government and the State (provincial) governments separately. The “functional classification” of expenditures in the budget documents is used as the basis for the analysis. While the broad period of analysis in the paper is 1950-51 to 2005-06, there would be special emphasis on understanding changes in expenditure patterns in the 1990s and 2000s. |
| Date: | 4 May 2008 |
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| Title: | 41 : From Condemnation to Strategic Partnership: Japan’s Changing View of India (1998-2007) |
| Author/s: | Purnendra Jain |
| Abstract: | Japan’s strong response to India’s nuclear testing in May 1998 sent the bilateral relationship to its lowest point in the postwar period. Loud condemnation, nationally and internationally, and the imposition of economic and diplomatic sanctions by Japan against India, produced a bumpy relationship through the late 1990s. Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori’s visit to India in August 2000 was a lubricant for smoothing relations considerably and set the precedent for visits to India by his successors Junichiro Koizumi (2001–2006) and Shinzo Abe (2006–2007). All three prime ministers preceding the current Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda offered firm hands of friendship to India, with 2007 marking a bilateral Year of Friendship. The Japanese leaders sought to strengthen bilateral ties through new initiatives and programmes ranging from economic and cultural linkages to defence and security. |
| Date: | 10 March 2008 |
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| Title: | 40 : Commodity Boom and Inflation Challenges for Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | M. Shahidul Islam |
| Abstract: | Following the low inflation regime in the 1990s and early 2000s, many economies (net commodity importing countries, in particular) around the world are now facing exorbitant price hike in fuel and non-fuel commodities. The current wave of inflation has been eroding purchasing power of the low and middle income people in Bangladesh, as they need to pay much higher bills for food grain and other commodities. The Exchequer of Bangladesh, which absorbs the petroleum price hike significantly, is also under severe pressure as oil prices are now hovering around US$100 a barrel in the international market. According to the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, the overall inflation in Bangladesh was 8.66 percent on 12- month annual average and 11.21 percent on point-to-point basis in November 2007; whereas the food-inflation hit 13.83 percent in the same period. The concerned authorities in Bangladesh have taken several measures to contain the current inflation. However, some of their measures have proven to be countervailing and the ongoing inflation in the economy shows no sign of restrain. |
| Date: | 6 March 2008 |
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| Title: | 39 : The Challenges of Institutionalising Democracy in Bangladesh |
| Author/s: | Rounaq Jahan |
| Abstract: | Bangladesh joined what Samuel P. Huntington had called the “third wave of democracy”1 after a people’s movement toppled 15 years of military rule in December 1990. In the next 15 years, the country made gradual progress in fulfilling the criteria of a “minimalist democracy”2 – regular free and contested elections, peaceful transfer of governmental powers as a result of elections, fundamental freedoms, and civilian control over policy and institutions |
| Date: | 6 March 2008 |
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| Title: | 38 : Do Foreign Direct Investment Inflows Benefit the Major Sectors in India? |
| Author/s: | Maathai K. Mathiyazhagan Dukhabandhu Sahoo |
| Abstract: | Total foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into India reached Rs.706.30 billion (US$15.73 billion) in 2006-07, with the largest share coming from Mauritius, followed by the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Singapore. The sectors that received the largest share of total FDI inflows between August 1991 and March 2007 were electrical equipment and the services sector, accounting for 18.77 percent and 17.84 percent of total FDI respectively. These were followed by the telecommunications, transportation, fuels and chemical sectors. |
| Date: | 18 February 2008 |
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| Title: | 37 : The Geopolitics Of Energy Security And Implications For South And Southeast Asia |
| Author/s: | Rajiv Sikri |
| Abstract: | The geopolitics of energy in today's world principally revolve around oil and, to a lesser degree, gas, both of which are not merely trading but geopolitical commodities. Global energy geopolitics will be principally shaped by the 'arc of energy', stretching from the Gulf region to the Caspian Sea, through Siberia and the Arctic region to the Russian Far East, Alaska and Canada. It is in this region that nearly 80 percent of the world's oil and gas, including potential reserves, are located. Asian countries, having the world's most dynamic economies, and comprising half the world's population, will remain dependent on energy from this arc. They will also be the principal consumers of energy from this region in the coming decades. The already complex traditional geopolitics of this region, marked by myriad inter-state disputes and instability, have been immensely further complicated by energy geopolitics and created enormous tensions and potential deadly conflicts. |
| Date: | 11 February 2008 |
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| Title: | 36 : South Asia – Social Development: Country Perspectives and Regional Concerns |
| Author/s: | Shobha Raghuram |
| Abstract: | In this paper we present an overview of the social development profiles of the countries in the South-Asian region whose specific features we outline. Then we consider the region as it stands today in terms of contemporary development standards. The number of people afflicted by poverty and human deprivation is overwhelmingly large in South Asia - a region already marked by high internal migration, military conflicts and the attendant loss of life, and critical issues of livelihood and human rights. Out of the total of 1.3 billion absolute poor people in the world, 433 million live in South Asia. There are more people living in poverty in South Asia than the combined population in poverty in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab States, East Asia and the Pacific (excluding China), and Latin America and the Caribbean. Illiteracy rates in South Asia are two-and-a-half times these rates in the rest of the developing world: the adult-literacy rate in South Asia is 48 percent, the lowest in any region of the world. The proportion of malnourished children is three times as high and access to health-care facilities is one and half times as low as global averages for these figures of deprivation and destitution. Women in South Asia endure one-third of the world's maternal deaths. We focus on such standards of development in the countries of South Asia; and we trace the relationship between poverty and democracy here, and the roles of states and civil society in reaching high standards of governance. The situation in South Asia poses new challenges for the development of policy responses for the problem of poverty here. |
| Date: | 30 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 35 : India’s Rise in the New Economy: Implications for Labour |
| Author/s: | Jayan Jose Thomas |
| Abstract: | This paper is an attempt to understand the key opportunities and challenges to Indian labour in the new, globalising economy. India is today a favourite destination for outsourcing of service sector jobs, particularly jobs in the information technology (IT) sector. There are also encouraging reports about India's growing expertise in high-technology industries. However, the concerns are many. The jobs created in India in the IT sector are not large enough to make a dent in the problem of unemployment and underemployment that the country faces. It is feared that multinational companies (MNCs) will corner the bulk of the benefits from the new economic changes, including outsourcing, and this will further erode the bargaining strength of labour globally. The rules for international trade, particularly the TRIPS agreement, have produced undesirable outcomes on firms and the poor in developing countries. They have triggered unprecedented levels of rural distress in many parts of India; they also threaten growth prospects of technology-intensive industries in India. |
| Date: | 25 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 34 : The Skilled South Asian Diaspora and its Role in Source Economies |
| Author/s: | Rupa Chanda |
| Abstract: | Skilled migration has been the subject of much analysis and debate since the 1950s and 1960s. Eminent economists have time and again voiced concerns about the brain drain consequences of skilled migration and the erosion of human resource capacity in developing countries due to skilled migration. Such concerns have led to proposals for a "brain drain tax", that is, a tax on skilled migrants and for the establishment of a World Migration Organisation to manage migration flows in the interests of developing nations. While skilled migration continues and has been on the rise in the past few decades, the thinking on such flows has shifted significantly, away from the concept of brain drain to concepts of brain gain, brain exchange, and brain circulation. More and more countries are now looking at their skilled overseas diaspora as an asset that can be tapped for economic, social, cultural, and political gains. To a large extent, developments in the information technology (IT) sector and the diffusion of technology and knowledge that has been facilitated by diaspora groups in that sector, and the huge growth in remittances and investment flows from expatriate communities into many developing countries lie at the heart of this change in mindset. Hence, from preventing emigration of skilled workers, many governments have turned to examining ways in which they can leverage their diaspora networks and expatriate communities to their own benefit, in addition to exploring ways of better managing migration flows to serve their national interest. |
| Date: | 22 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 33 : Flight to Freedom: Third Country Re-settlement Option for Bhutanese Refugees in Nepal |
| Author/s: | Nishchal N. Pandey |
| Abstract: | The first plane-load of the refugees could be arriving in the United States around the later part of January 2008', said Ellen Sauerbery, United States Assistant Secretary at the Bureau of Population, Refugees and Migration, during her trip to Nepal on 1 November 2007. She was referring to 106,000 Bhutanese refugees living in Nepal, 60,000 of whom the United States has agreed to re-settle on its shores. |
| Date: | 16 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 32 : India in the Global Labour Market: International Economic Relations, Mobility of the Highly Skilled and Human Capital Formation |
| Author/s: | Binod Khadria |
| Abstract: | Beginning as a trickle in the 1950s, the skilled migration to the developed countries, that picked up in after the mid-1960s, gathered force with the more recent migration of the IT workers and, later nurses, contributing to the large presence of skilled Indian migrants in the labour markets of the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, other European countries, and Australia-New Zealand. The Indian diaspora, which provides the overall basis of the size of this skilled Indian labour force in the global labour market, was estimated to be 20 million at the end of the 20th century and is now thought to have grown to 25 million. These figures also marks a positive reversal of the contemptuous sentiments expressed about the highly-educated or skilled knowledge workers supposedly ‘deserting’ India, as also about the indifference shown by the authorities concerned to the condition of the large scale labour migrants to the Gulf. With the genesis of this indifference rooted in the neutrality of the non-aligned movement spearheaded by Jawarhalal Nehru and later pursued by Indira Gandhi (when the destinations of the earlier Indian labour diaspora were the Caribbean, and South and East Africa), there is a novel international economic relations context here that poses a “double challenge” for public policy in India: one, to recognise and convince its diaspora of the strategic importance of migration, both as a challenge and an opportunity for India to view it as a tool of participation in the global labour market and; two, to rethink the process of human capital formation in India with a transnational perspective, so that it is redefined in terms of average labour productivity at home and incorporates the cooperation and collaboration of the migrants’ destination countries. Section 2 of the study is on the general contextual background of India, highlighting those aspects of the demographic, economic and dynamics of the internal/domestic labour market that have had a bearing on the evolution of the trends and policies of international migration from India that followed. Section 3 is devoted to the skilled and semi-skilled labour migration to the Gulf, beginning mainly as an overflow of the domestic labour market and in the light of the remittances it generates to India with the resultant implications for human capital formation. It also deals with the socio-economic impact of Gulf migration on the states of origin in India, with particular focus on skill and human capital formation in the state of Kerala. Section 4 is devoted to India’s transnational connectivity through high skill migration to the developed countries, including an analysis of how these connectivities have empowered the migrants to create capabilities to participate in the global labour market. In particular, it also highlights the socio-economic empowerment of Indian migrants in the developed-country labour market of the United States. Section 5 deals with the evolution of, and changes in the Indian thinking on migration and the policy debates and public discourse connected with them. Section 6 includes a list of measures undertaken by the Government of India with the aim of strengthening both international economic relations and for the participation of Indians in the global labour markets – mainly for the highly skilled, but also the semi/unskilled. The concluding section is a commentary on whether and how migration has changed society in India; contributed to its economic and social development, and empowered or could empower the country to face the challenge of international economic relations on the one hand and consolidating the base of human capital formation on the other. It also provides a discussion for evolving a methodology of how the Indian diaspora could be reclassified for analysing its role in the global labour market. |
| Date: | 14 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 31 : The Political Economy of Military Rule in Pakistan: The Musharraf Regime |
| Author/s: | S. Akbar Zaidi |
| Abstract: | Writing about a political regime which has been in power for more than eight years at a time when it is at its weakest ever and is caught up in the throes of events and circumstances, largely of its own making one must add, is an intellectually challenging task, yet perhaps, hazardous academically. There is no question that the political events that have taken place since 9 March 2007 when President General Musharraf charge-sheeted Pakistan's Chief Justice of the Supreme Court and made him 'dysfunctional' as Chief Justice, have been unprecedented and of historic proportions, and perhaps may prove to be the second most important event since President General Musharraf took over power in October 1999 and which have had momentous repercussions on his rule and presidency |
| Date: | 9 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 30 : Special Economic Zones In India: Recent Developments And Future Prospects |
| Author/s: | Rahul Mukherji |
| Abstract: | The author would like to thank Mr. Montek S Ahluwalia (Planning Commission, New Delhi), Mr G. K. Pillai (Ministry of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi), Dr S Narayan (Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore), Dr Subas C. Pani (Ministry of Rural Development, Government of India), Mr L. B. Singhal (Ministry of Commerce and Industry, New Delhi), Mr Sambob (Government of Andhra Pradesh, Hyderabad), Mr Sadhu Sundar (Government of Andhra Pradesh, Hyderabad), Mr Pratap Madireddy (Government of Andhra Pradesh, Hyderabad), Mr P K Tripathy (Unitech, Gurgaon), Mr Ganesh Raj (Ernst and Young, New Delhi), Mr D. Madhu Babu (IL&FS, Hyderabad), Mr Velmurugan (Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai), Mr Ajit Singh (Government of Singapore, Chennai), Ms Lee Lorling (Government of Singapore, New Delhi), Mr O. P. Vijayan (Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Chennai), Mr T. S. Vishwanath (Confederation of Indian Industry, New Delhi), Mr B. K. Subbiah (Mahindra World City, Jaipur), Mr B. P. Acharya (Government of Andhra Pradesh, Hyderabad), Mr Pradyumna Kumar (Gitanjali Gems and Jewellery, Hyderabad), Mr T. Wellington (Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai), Mr M V Lawrence (Nokia SEZ, Sriperumbudur), Ms Madhumathi Kumar (Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai), Mr M. S. Murthy (Kakinada SEZ, Hyderabad), Mr N. Sathya Moorthy (Observer Research Foundation, Chennai), and, Mr T. Sunil Reddy (Sri City SEZ, Hyderabad) for their valuable insights. My students, Mr Siddharth Pathak and Ms Priyanka, assisted in this research paper. The Institute of South Asian Studies provided valuable support and encouragement. |
| Date: | 8 January 2008 |
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| Title: | 29 : India-Myanmar Relations – Geopolitics and Energy in Light of the New Balance of Power in Asia |
| Author/s: | Marie Lall |
| Abstract: | In light of India's changing foreign policy over the last decade, Indo-Myanmar relations have also changed radically. The reasons thereof pertain principally to four factors: the economic development of India's North East, India's increased interest in trade with ASEAN, India's search for energy security and increased Chinese involvement in Myanmar. This paper offers an in depth analysis of these issues, drawing on seven weeks of fieldwork during the summer of 2007 and over 50 interviews with officials and academics in both countries. The summary of the fieldwork is listed below. The paper concludes that, although today Indo-Myanmar relations have improved, India has, in essence, been too slow to develop this important relationship and is now loosing out to China. |
| Date: | 2 January 2008 |
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