ISAS Briefs

With the Left [the Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M), the Communist Party of India, the Forward Bloc and Revolutionary Socialist Party] planning to meet President Pratibha Devisingh Patil on 9 July 2008 and submit a letter withdrawing support from the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government, the overall numbers game seems simple. There are two vacancies and the Lok Sabha now has 543 members. A simple majority requires 272 members. The UPA (the Congress Party, Rashtriya Janata Dal, Dravida Munnettra Kazhagam, the Nationalist Congress Party, Pattali Makkal Katchi, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha, Lok Janshakti Party, Kerala Congress, the Muslim League, Republican Party of India, All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, Peoples Democratic Party, Sikkim Democratic Front and three Independents) has 231 seats (the Congress Party has 153 seats). With the Left's 59 Members of Parliament having quit, the UPA has lost its majority. However, to all intents and purposes, the Samajwadi Party (SP) has provided support to the UPA through its 39 members, leaving UPA with only two members short of a majority. But it isn't that simple. There is dissidence within the SP too, and at least seven (if not 10) of its Members of Parliament may not end up supporting the government. Indeed, there are question marks about support from some of the UPA constituents too. Though these are political parties with single-digit Members of Parliament (one or two), even one Member of Parliament matters. Therefore, the Congress Party cannot be sure about the numbers yet and will try to get support from other political parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal (Ajit Singh), Janata Dal Secular (Deve Gowda), Telangana Rashtra Samithi, Trinamool Congress, National Conference, Shiromani Akali Dal and Independents.