ISAS Insights

With Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi seeking a second term in India’s general elections, scheduled between April and May 2019, the outcome of the poll battle will depend a great deal on how 10 states in the country’s Hindi-speaking heartland in north and central India vote. Modi’s historic win in 2014 as the first leader in three decades to win a full majority in India’s lower house of Parliament, the Lok Sabha, was powered by unprecedented gains for his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in these states. The BJP won over 84 per cent of seats in the Hindi heartland in that election. This paper summarises the political outlook of India’s Hindi heartland in 2019, examines key factors at play in each of its constituent states and puts together cumulative data from the various state-wise opinion polls and assembly elections to illustrate how the Indian political chessboard has shifted and the likely prospects as India heads into its national election.