ISAS Insights

Both India and Pakistan have indulged in a media and information battle with government and military officials actively utilizing various forms of media – including newspapers, news channels, Twitter and Facebook – to put out their versions of what happened. In Pakistan, the military has also been able to control the information available to the public through censorship. In India, public opinion is being shaped, not just through the media, but also through electoral rallies. India is months away from a general election and the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is keen to demonstrate that it is willing and able to take a strong stance against Pakistan. This paper analyzes what we know and still do not know about the strikes. It evaluates the claims being made by India and Pakistan. This paper shows that while official statements from India and Pakistan confirm that Indian planes bombed a site in or around Balakot, we do not yet know what these bombs struck. It is also shown that there are outstanding questions over the specifics of the subsequent Pakistani strikes. It remains to be determined what targets Pakistan struck and where exactly the subsequent aerial engagement between India and Pakistan took place. Intertwined in this is the issue of whether Pakistan deployed American made F-16 planes against India. If so, this may have violated the terms of purchase agreed upon between Pakistan and the US.