ISAS Working Papers

Which way is Pakistan headed? The question is important not only for the citizens of Pakistan but also for the country’s immediate neighbours. It is important also for the entire world. A recent book authored by David E. Sanger, who covers the United States’ global strategic interests for The New York Times, has some interesting observations about how the administration headed by President Barack Obama viewed Pakistan as the relations between the two began to sour3. He wrote that by the end of 2011, the American President had come to the conclusion that Pakistan was the world’s most dangerous place. Not only was there a great deal of internal turmoil in the country, Pakistan also had the world’s fourth or fifth largest nuclear arsenal. If Pakistan collapsed and if internal divisions within the country’s army split it apart, the security of nuclear weapons could not be ensured. It would be catastrophic if these weapons of mass destruction fell into the wrong hands. Pakistan’s security was, therefore, of interest and concern for the entire international community. The country remained unsettled after the long rule by the military and the beginning of a new political order. There were significant changes made in the Constitution that led to the grant of greater autonomy to the provinces. There was also repeal of Basic Law that had given the president powers to dismiss the prime minister and dissolve the national and provincial assemblies. In spite of this change, President Asif Ali Zardari remained in effect the main executive authority. The economy continued to perform poorly with the 2007-12 downturn being the longest-stretching recession in the country’s history. Pakistan remained dependent on external capital flows to maintain even the low level of investment in the economy. But these flows became less certain as relations with the United States deteriorated in 2010-11. And the rise of Islamic extremism remained unabated. This paper, presented in three parts, examines how the various systems – economic, political and social – developed over time in Pakistan and how they were being shaped as 2012 draws to a close, and attempts to answer the question: Which way Pakistan appears to be headed at this time? The first part sets the stage for the analysis that follows and also analyses the development of the political order after the military left the scene in March 2008