ISAS Insights

A seven-phase election will be held in Uttar Pradesh (UP), India's largest state, between February 8 and March 3. The election is important from the national perspective primarily for two reasons. One, it might bring about a change in the federal coalition governing India with one of the two largest parties in UP, the Bahujan Samaj Party or the Samajwadi Party, finding a place in the federal government in return for Congress support in the state. Two, it will be a test of strength for Rahul Gandhi's leadership. UP elections are notoriously difficult to call, but what can be said with some certainty is that no party is likely to get a majority on its own leading to a scramble for post-poll alliances.