ISAS Briefs

In my fourth brief on Afghanistan’s presidential elections held on 20 August 2009, I explore the consequences of the findings by the independent, United Nations-managed Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) about the irregularities committed in the elections. The ECC’s revised tally of votes gives President Hamid Karzai less than 50 percent of the total. Its findings were accepted by the Karzai government under pressure from the West, in particular the United States, Britain and France. As a result, 7 November 2009 has been set as the date of the run-off election between Karzai and Dr Abdullah Abdullah, Minister of Foreign Affairs in an earlier Karzai administration. The findings were anticipated but they have complicated the United States’ mission in Afghanistan. They have come at a time when the administration of President Barack Obama is reviewing Washington’s strategy, not only in the country but also in the region the policymakers called ‘AfPak’ – Afghanistan and Pakistan. The prospect of another election has created even more uncertainty and has coincided with an intensive campaign of terror by Islamic insurgents across the border in Pakistan. The Pakistani government has responded with a full-fledged military assault on South Waziristan that started on 17 October 2009. It is clear that what happens in one country will profoundly impact on the other.