ISAS Briefs

Serious doubts about the fairness of the Afghanistan presidential election held on 20 August 2009, increased casualties in the escalating fight, and some weakening of the European support for the war in Afghanistan have posed a serious dilemma for the administration of United States President Barack Obama. Washington had hoped to follow a classic counter-insurgency strategy which seemed to have succeeded in Iraq. This had three elements ÔÇô to split the opposition, to economically develop the areas in which the insurgents were active, and to use great force against those who continued to resist. However, for such a strategy to succeed, it required an Afghan government that is credible and legitimate, both to get the Afghans to support it and to get Americans and their allies to help. What is placed on hold is any kind of political reconciliation and attempting to split the Taliban. It is very difficult to do this without an Afghan government as an effective partner. The election of 20 August 2009 did not produce such a government. At the same time, the resolve of the American people and their allies in Europe to continue with the fight seems to be weakening.