ISAS Insights

In the span of less than a year, Sri Lanka will have transited three decisive turning points: the conclusion of armed conflict in May 2009, the Presidential Election of late January 2010 and the Parliamentary election scheduled for this April. While the ruling coalition strives for a two thirds majority in the legislature, which would permit the replacement of the Constitution, this paper argues that the main result of the upcoming election is already prefigured and portends a new cycle of conflict along the lines of identity politics. The paper concludes that the dominant ideologies on the Sinhala and Tamil sides prevent Sri Lanka’s adoption of the recognised contemporary Asian mechanisms of the management of diversity, thus preventing the country from fully integrating into and benefiting from the economic rise of Asia.