ISAS South Asia Scan

This publication argues that the Modi government has revised India’s Pakistan policy from one of strategic restraint to realist strategic assertiveness. India’s assertive upgrading of its foreign policy can thus be explained by a combination of external and internal factors. On the external security front, India’s failure to credibly deter Pakistan’s revanchism; India’s upsized military and economic capabilities; flexibility to pursue its national interest on its northwestern frontier with fewer fears of international reprisal; and the potential terror threat of radicals moving from Syria to Afghanistan-Pakistan and on to Kashmir, have collectively galvanised the Modi government to act more proactively against Pakistan. Domestically, the BJP’s 2019 general elections victory has empowered Modi to take a zero-tolerance policy. This zero-tolerance policy is also attributable to the prime minister’s strongman leadership style and the nationalistic support he garnered by confronting Pakistan during the election season. Finally, the BJP’s majority in Parliament has enabled the government to advance a Hindu nationalist agenda not possible under the Vajpayee-led BJP government of 1998 to 2004 due to coalition constraints at that time and Vajpayee’s ‘moderate’ style of leadership.